先导智能 00470
新股中签预测
20.2803.06%( -0.640 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
130.6亿 |
| 2 |  老虎 |
30.3亿 |
| 3 |  辉立 |
27.0亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
12.7亿 |
| 5 |  招银 |
9.5亿 |
| 6 |  盈立 |
2.4亿 |
| 7 |  华盛 |
1.8亿 |
| 8 |  长桥 |
1.4亿 |
| 9 |  信诚 |
1.0亿 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-03T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-02-03T10:02:01+08:00 | 0.0007230152066424107 |
| 2026-02-03T10:07:16+08:00 | 0.005784121653139285 |
| 2026-02-03T10:07:42+08:00 | 0.05089094131915291 |
| 2026-02-03T10:08:09+08:00 | 0.060220169791958204 |
| 2026-02-03T11:12:13+08:00 | 0.09958951394719656 |
| 2026-02-03T11:12:34+08:00 | 0.10754268122026309 |
| 2026-02-03T11:13:02+08:00 | 0.12116335479055883 |
| 2026-02-03T11:13:37+08:00 | 1.170701557981155 |
| 2026-02-03T12:00:18+08:00 | 1.1785381098983114 |
| 2026-02-03T12:05:49+08:00 | 1.1965435208508257 |
| 2026-02-03T12:06:42+08:00 | 1.2093245638585688 |
| 2026-02-03T12:07:21+08:00 | 1.295619927232018 |
| 2026-02-03T13:45:05+08:00 | 1.3189896445563951 |
| 2026-02-03T13:45:44+08:00 | 1.3197826289765837 |
| 2026-02-03T13:47:17+08:00 | 1.325986565910999 |
| 2026-02-03T13:47:51+08:00 | 1.3493096370930124 |
| 2026-02-03T14:08:32+08:00 | 1.353880959044687 |
| 2026-02-03T14:09:05+08:00 | 1.3565864353018005 |
| 2026-02-03T14:09:46+08:00 | 1.359151973131822 |
| 2026-02-03T14:10:08+08:00 | 1.4151273439686538 |
| 2026-02-03T14:16:38+08:00 | 1.425785987498834 |
| 2026-02-03T15:19:53+08:00 | 1.436724507883198 |
| 2026-02-03T15:20:10+08:00 | 1.4406661069129583 |
| 2026-02-03T15:20:33+08:00 | 1.4430450601735236 |
| 2026-02-03T15:21:51+08:00 | 1.4850265883011475 |
| 2026-02-03T15:39:58+08:00 | 1.5083496594831607 |
| 2026-02-03T16:04:16+08:00 | 1.5135507043567498 |
| 2026-02-03T16:04:53+08:00 | 1.5237895326056534 |
| 2026-02-03T16:05:46+08:00 | 1.5483487265603135 |
| 2026-02-03T16:06:07+08:00 | 1.5646748763877227 |
| 2026-02-03T17:24:49+08:00 | 1.5982834219610038 |
| 2026-02-03T17:25:40+08:00 | 1.598493329601642 |
| 2026-02-03T17:26:04+08:00 | 1.5961376994122587 |
| 2026-02-03T17:26:33+08:00 | 1.6147961563578692 |
| 2026-02-03T17:27:07+08:00 | 1.6334546133034797 |
| 2026-02-03T17:31:36+08:00 | 2.1698852504897843 |
| 2026-02-03T18:03:41+08:00 | 2.1763457412072023 |
| 2026-02-03T18:04:34+08:00 | 2.1782115869017633 |
| 2026-02-03T18:05:10+08:00 | 2.1808470939453306 |
| 2026-02-03T18:05:43+08:00 | 2.2041701651273438 |
| 2026-02-03T18:33:19+08:00 | 2.2119833939733184 |
| 2026-02-03T20:13:24+08:00 | 2.2126364399664147 |
| 2026-02-03T20:15:36+08:00 | 2.2213126224461237 |
| 2026-02-03T20:16:05+08:00 | 2.2533585222502097 |
| 2026-02-03T20:18:40+08:00 | 2.274349286314022 |
| 2026-02-03T20:18:59+08:00 | 2.2883431290232297 |
| 2026-02-03T21:48:09+08:00 | 2.294220542961097 |
| 2026-02-03T21:48:25+08:00 | 2.2948036197406476 |
| 2026-02-03T21:48:46+08:00 | 2.2994682339770502 |
| 2026-02-04T08:49:55+08:00 | 2.3074447243212988 |
| 2026-02-04T08:50:14+08:00 | 2.3178701371396584 |
| 2026-02-04T08:50:25+08:00 | 2.3214618901016886 |
| 2026-02-04T08:52:43+08:00 | 2.3737522156917623 |
| 2026-02-04T08:52:49+08:00 | 2.35530366638679 |
| 2026-02-04T08:53:33+08:00 | 2.35530366638679 |
| 2026-02-04T08:54:04+08:00 | 2.5325590073700903 |
| 2026-02-04T08:54:19+08:00 | 2.714478962589794 |
| 2026-02-04T09:03:28+08:00 | 2.73227446590167 |
| 2026-02-04T09:04:17+08:00 | 2.7351665267282397 |
| 2026-02-04T09:04:35+08:00 | 2.7353064651553316 |
| 2026-02-04T09:07:51+08:00 | 2.7380819106259913 |
| 2026-02-04T09:08:47+08:00 | 2.763737288926206 |
| 2026-02-04T10:03:54+08:00 | 2.7669092266069595 |
| 2026-02-04T10:04:32+08:00 | 2.7701278104300773 |
| 2026-02-04T10:04:43+08:00 | 2.7885763597350497 |
| 2026-02-04T10:09:29+08:00 | 2.9191855583543243 |
| 2026-02-04T11:06:32+08:00 | 2.9852831420841497 |
| 2026-02-04T11:07:05+08:00 | 3.035544360481388 |
| 2026-02-04T11:07:31+08:00 | 3.156824330627857 |
| 2026-02-04T11:08:14+08:00 | 3.160346114376341 |
| 2026-02-04T12:00:21+08:00 | 3.1648474671144697 |
| 2026-02-04T12:05:08+08:00 | 3.164054482694281 |
| 2026-02-04T12:05:49+08:00 | 3.1716811269707996 |
| 2026-02-04T12:06:08+08:00 | 3.218327269334826 |
| 2026-02-04T13:47:06+08:00 | 3.218537176975464 |
| 2026-02-04T13:47:28+08:00 | 3.2348633268028735 |
| 2026-02-04T13:48:06+08:00 | 3.239994402462916 |
| 2026-02-04T13:48:31+08:00 | 3.241533725160929 |
| 2026-02-04T14:01:20+08:00 | 3.2551077525888608 |
| 2026-02-04T14:13:38+08:00 | 3.262407873868831 |
| 2026-02-04T14:14:02+08:00 | 3.2644836272040303 |
| 2026-02-04T14:14:19+08:00 | 3.3321205336318687 |
| 2026-02-04T14:15:31+08:00 | 3.3560266815934323 |
| 2026-02-04T15:08:57+08:00 | 3.3584056348539977 |
| 2026-02-04T15:09:13+08:00 | 3.364353018005411 |
| 2026-02-04T15:10:28+08:00 | 3.3722828622072956 |
| 2026-02-04T15:10:41+08:00 | 3.533212053363187 |
| 2026-02-04T15:23:57+08:00 | 3.62650433809124 |
| 2026-02-04T16:02:35+08:00 | 3.6306558447616384 |
| 2026-02-04T16:03:32+08:00 | 3.6400083963056256 |
| 2026-02-04T16:03:57+08:00 | 3.6571042074820412 |
| 2026-02-04T16:13:31+08:00 | 3.6897565071368597 |
| 2026-02-04T17:05:13+08:00 | 3.6959137979289114 |
| 2026-02-04T17:05:22+08:00 | 3.706409179960817 |
| 2026-02-04T17:05:35+08:00 | 3.7610318126690925 |
| 2026-02-04T17:05:57+08:00 | 4.078225580744473 |
| 2026-02-04T17:34:29+08:00 | 4.171517865472525 |
| 2026-02-04T18:01:54+08:00 | 4.194631029013901 |
| 2026-02-04T18:04:43+08:00 | 4.713895885810244 |
| 2026-02-04T18:04:59+08:00 | 4.7372189569922565 |
| 2026-02-04T18:05:20+08:00 | 4.747947569735983 |
| 2026-02-04T18:05:25+08:00 | 4.8670118481201605 |
| 2026-02-04T18:05:46+08:00 | 5.123565631122307 |
| 2026-02-04T20:06:39+08:00 | 5.124218677115403 |
| 2026-02-04T20:07:09+08:00 | 5.124428584756041 |
| 2026-02-04T20:07:14+08:00 | 5.144066610691296 |
| 2026-02-04T20:07:36+08:00 | 5.188380445937121 |
| 2026-02-04T20:08:19+08:00 | 5.188473738221849 |
| 2026-02-04T20:08:23+08:00 | 5.2576266442765185 |
| 2026-02-04T20:08:38+08:00 | 5.2949435581677395 |
| 2026-02-04T21:44:44+08:00 | 5.351362067357029 |
| 2026-02-04T21:44:59+08:00 | 5.4329928164940755 |
| 2026-02-05T08:42:58+08:00 | 5.465785054575987 |
| 2026-02-05T08:43:01+08:00 | 5.507976490344249 |
| 2026-02-05T08:43:03+08:00 | 5.589280716484747 |
| 2026-02-05T08:45:27+08:00 | 5.589280716484747 |
| 2026-02-05T08:46:04+08:00 | 5.822511428304879 |
| 2026-02-05T08:46:12+08:00 | 6.498880492583264 |
| 2026-02-05T08:50:54+08:00 | 6.538529713592686 |
| 2026-02-05T09:11:44+08:00 | 6.699948689243399 |
| 2026-02-05T09:12:30+08:00 | 6.788716298162142 |
| 2026-02-05T09:12:50+08:00 | 6.884340890008397 |
| 2026-02-05T09:16:00+08:00 | 7.091613023602948 |
| 2026-02-05T10:06:06+08:00 | 7.1071695120813505 |
| 2026-02-05T10:06:22+08:00 | 7.108032465715086 |
| 2026-02-05T10:07:10+08:00 | 7.136836458624872 |
| 2026-02-05T10:07:43+08:00 | 7.325753335199179 |
| 2026-02-05T11:13:34+08:00 | 7.346977329974811 |
| 2026-02-05T11:13:59+08:00 | 7.359315234630096 |
| 2026-02-05T11:14:26+08:00 | 7.387302920048512 |
| 2026-02-05T11:14:49+08:00 | 7.44959884317567 |
| 2026-02-05T12:06:09+08:00 | 7.526285101222129 |
| 2026-02-05T12:07:00+08:00 | 7.577222688683646 |
| 2026-02-05T12:07:27+08:00 | 7.644859595111484 |
| 2026-02-05T12:07:51+08:00 | 7.662818359921634 |
| 2026-02-05T13:46:37+08:00 | 7.670911465621793 |
| 2026-02-05T13:47:04+08:00 | 7.684182293124358 |
| 2026-02-05T13:47:32+08:00 | 7.696870043847373 |
| 2026-02-05T13:47:38+08:00 | 7.976746898031533 |
| 2026-02-05T14:05:23+08:00 | 7.993749416923221 |
| 2026-02-05T14:06:13+08:00 | 8.003755014460305 |
| 2026-02-05T14:06:24+08:00 | 8.042657897191901 |
| 2026-02-05T14:06:37+08:00 | 8.09396865379233 |
| 2026-02-05T14:08:21+08:00 | 8.221802406940945 |
| 2026-02-05T15:17:07+08:00 | 8.252169045619928 |
| 2026-02-05T15:17:37+08:00 | 8.258023136486612 |
| 2026-02-05T15:17:59+08:00 | 8.271877040768729 |
| 2026-02-05T15:18:11+08:00 | 8.302197033305346 |
| 2026-02-05T15:19:04+08:00 | 8.418812389215413 |
| 2026-02-05T16:04:16+08:00 | 8.759002705476258 |
| 2026-02-05T16:05:18+08:00 | 10.020780856423174 |
| 2026-02-05T17:01:39+08:00 | 10.177045433342663 |
| 2026-02-05T17:06:43+08:00 | 14.4661582237149 |
| 2026-02-05T17:07:21+08:00 | 16.148334732717604 |
| 2026-02-05T18:11:24+08:00 | 21.815841029946824 |
| 2026-02-05T18:12:04+08:00 | 22.111181080324656 |
| 2026-02-05T18:12:09+08:00 | 24.133291351805205 |
| 2026-02-05T18:14:40+08:00 | 24.989994402462916 |
| 2026-02-05T20:43:23+08:00 | 25.601641944211213 |
| 2026-02-05T20:43:30+08:00 | 27.418509189290045 |
| 2026-02-05T20:44:28+08:00 | 27.905401623285755 |
| 2026-02-05T20:44:32+08:00 | 29.244145909133316 |
| 2026-02-05T21:45:15+08:00 | 29.278407500699693 |
| 2026-02-05T21:45:19+08:00 | 30.22998880492583 |
| 2026-02-06T09:00:45+08:00 | 30.632824890381567 |
| 2026-02-06T09:00:56+08:00 | 31.474251329415058 |
| 2026-02-06T09:01:05+08:00 | 33.11899430917063 |
| 2026-02-06T09:02:51+08:00 | 33.11899430917063 |
| 2026-02-06T09:03:27+08:00 | 34.826243119694 |
| 2026-02-06T09:03:37+08:00 | 43.9852131728706 |
| 2026-02-06T09:06:53+08:00 | 45.181686724507884 |
| 2026-02-06T09:07:26+08:00 | 44.88137885996828 |
| 2026-02-06T09:07:37+08:00 | 46.41836925086295 |
| 2026-02-06T10:04:24+08:00 | 46.60495382031906 |
| 2026-02-06T10:05:21+08:00 | 46.63972851945144 |
| 2026-02-06T10:05:35+08:00 | 48.297998880492585 |
| 2026-02-06T10:14:06+08:00 | 50.51369064278384 |
| 2026-02-06T10:17:30+08:00 | 50.92 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 79.54x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.592, 乙组 α=0.692) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
先导智能中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 先导智能（00470）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
