华曦达 00901
新股中签预测
62.5000.32%( -0.200 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
407.6亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
215.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
75.5亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
31.1亿 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
12.8亿 |
| 6 |  致富 |
9.7亿 |
| 7 |  熊猫 |
6.9亿 |
| 8 |  复星 |
6.6亿 |
| 9 |  盈立 |
5.8亿 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-18T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-05-18T10:10:03+08:00 | 0.008412698412698413 |
| 2026-05-18T10:10:16+08:00 | 0.05492063492063492 |
| 2026-05-18T10:10:23+08:00 | 0.27714285714285714 |
| 2026-05-18T10:51:06+08:00 | 0.2804761904761905 |
| 2026-05-18T11:11:05+08:00 | 0.8104761904761905 |
| 2026-05-18T11:11:27+08:00 | 2.1755555555555555 |
| 2026-05-18T11:53:20+08:00 | 2.1826984126984126 |
| 2026-05-18T12:08:14+08:00 | 2.2244444444444444 |
| 2026-05-18T12:09:31+08:00 | 2.263968253968254 |
| 2026-05-18T12:10:16+08:00 | 2.5814285714285714 |
| 2026-05-18T12:10:41+08:00 | 2.5828571428571427 |
| 2026-05-18T13:44:38+08:00 | 2.595079365079365 |
| 2026-05-18T13:45:50+08:00 | 2.6974603174603176 |
| 2026-05-18T13:46:30+08:00 | 3.729206349206349 |
| 2026-05-18T13:47:44+08:00 | 3.736666666666667 |
| 2026-05-18T13:48:06+08:00 | 3.7434920634920634 |
| 2026-05-18T14:29:40+08:00 | 3.7626984126984127 |
| 2026-05-18T14:30:36+08:00 | 3.818095238095238 |
| 2026-05-18T14:31:01+08:00 | 4.008571428571429 |
| 2026-05-18T14:31:27+08:00 | 4.0193650793650795 |
| 2026-05-18T14:31:56+08:00 | 4.027619047619048 |
| 2026-05-18T14:33:26+08:00 | 4.573333333333333 |
| 2026-05-18T15:07:50+08:00 | 4.575555555555556 |
| 2026-05-18T15:08:11+08:00 | 4.637777777777778 |
| 2026-05-18T15:09:15+08:00 | 4.7647619047619045 |
| 2026-05-18T15:42:10+08:00 | 4.765714285714286 |
| 2026-05-18T16:09:34+08:00 | 4.793809523809524 |
| 2026-05-18T16:10:18+08:00 | 5.047777777777778 |
| 2026-05-18T16:10:52+08:00 | 5.05031746031746 |
| 2026-05-18T16:11:12+08:00 | 5.052222222222222 |
| 2026-05-18T16:11:33+08:00 | 5.202222222222222 |
| 2026-05-18T16:34:39+08:00 | 5.205555555555556 |
| 2026-05-18T17:16:17+08:00 | 5.20984126984127 |
| 2026-05-18T17:16:51+08:00 | 5.233492063492063 |
| 2026-05-18T17:18:06+08:00 | 5.265238095238095 |
| 2026-05-18T17:35:49+08:00 | 5.73015873015873 |
| 2026-05-18T18:09:31+08:00 | 5.9320634920634925 |
| 2026-05-18T18:09:48+08:00 | 9.265396825396826 |
| 2026-05-18T18:10:03+08:00 | 9.272063492063491 |
| 2026-05-18T18:10:25+08:00 | 10.224603174603175 |
| 2026-05-18T18:10:52+08:00 | 10.235079365079365 |
| 2026-05-18T18:11:37+08:00 | 12.94936507936508 |
| 2026-05-18T20:13:03+08:00 | 13.02984126984127 |
| 2026-05-18T20:13:58+08:00 | 13.748888888888889 |
| 2026-05-18T20:14:32+08:00 | 13.86111111111111 |
| 2026-05-18T20:15:13+08:00 | 14.844920634920635 |
| 2026-05-18T20:15:42+08:00 | 15.987777777777778 |
| 2026-05-18T20:16:03+08:00 | 17.06714285714286 |
| 2026-05-18T22:03:57+08:00 | 17.085238095238097 |
| 2026-05-18T22:04:36+08:00 | 17.104126984126985 |
| 2026-05-18T22:05:13+08:00 | 17.455873015873017 |
| 2026-05-18T22:05:41+08:00 | 17.551111111111112 |
| 2026-05-18T22:05:59+08:00 | 19.51936507936508 |
| 2026-05-19T08:37:27+08:00 | 19.726825396825397 |
| 2026-05-19T08:37:30+08:00 | 19.996031746031747 |
| 2026-05-19T08:38:38+08:00 | 20.005396825396826 |
| 2026-05-19T08:38:44+08:00 | 19.973492063492063 |
| 2026-05-19T08:39:11+08:00 | 19.973492063492063 |
| 2026-05-19T08:39:33+08:00 | 24.846507936507937 |
| 2026-05-19T09:00:45+08:00 | 26.138253968253967 |
| 2026-05-19T09:06:30+08:00 | 27.155555555555555 |
| 2026-05-19T09:13:46+08:00 | 27.2815873015873 |
| 2026-05-19T09:14:22+08:00 | 27.346666666666668 |
| 2026-05-19T09:14:49+08:00 | 27.355238095238096 |
| 2026-05-19T09:15:26+08:00 | 28.434603174603176 |
| 2026-05-19T09:16:06+08:00 | 28.593333333333334 |
| 2026-05-19T10:02:09+08:00 | 29.37984126984127 |
| 2026-05-19T10:03:02+08:00 | 29.723809523809525 |
| 2026-05-19T10:03:49+08:00 | 29.752857142857142 |
| 2026-05-19T10:04:13+08:00 | 29.855873015873016 |
| 2026-05-19T10:04:36+08:00 | 29.873174603174604 |
| 2026-05-19T10:05:33+08:00 | 32.77793650793651 |
| 2026-05-19T10:30:53+08:00 | 32.98984126984127 |
| 2026-05-19T11:05:03+08:00 | 33.21650793650794 |
| 2026-05-19T11:05:26+08:00 | 33.212698412698415 |
| 2026-05-19T11:06:19+08:00 | 33.68 |
| 2026-05-19T11:06:49+08:00 | 33.68714285714286 |
| 2026-05-19T11:07:07+08:00 | 35.92523809523809 |
| 2026-05-19T11:36:58+08:00 | 36.00952380952381 |
| 2026-05-19T11:50:39+08:00 | 36.24761904761905 |
| 2026-05-19T12:08:13+08:00 | 36.46952380952381 |
| 2026-05-19T12:09:09+08:00 | 36.46095238095238 |
| 2026-05-19T12:09:36+08:00 | 36.76111111111111 |
| 2026-05-19T12:10:20+08:00 | 36.8 |
| 2026-05-19T12:10:35+08:00 | 39.94285714285714 |
| 2026-05-19T13:43:51+08:00 | 39.89793650793651 |
| 2026-05-19T13:43:59+08:00 | 40.156349206349205 |
| 2026-05-19T13:44:28+08:00 | 40.28619047619048 |
| 2026-05-19T13:44:40+08:00 | 40.28142857142857 |
| 2026-05-19T13:45:18+08:00 | 40.28619047619048 |
| 2026-05-19T13:45:37+08:00 | 42.14333333333333 |
| 2026-05-19T13:45:58+08:00 | 42.50126984126984 |
| 2026-05-19T14:15:59+08:00 | 42.59984126984127 |
| 2026-05-19T14:16:15+08:00 | 42.65047619047619 |
| 2026-05-19T14:16:39+08:00 | 43.255714285714284 |
| 2026-05-19T14:16:56+08:00 | 43.26111111111111 |
| 2026-05-19T14:18:03+08:00 | 44.80079365079365 |
| 2026-05-19T14:18:56+08:00 | 44.90031746031746 |
| 2026-05-19T15:03:02+08:00 | 44.948095238095235 |
| 2026-05-19T15:03:14+08:00 | 45.10174603174603 |
| 2026-05-19T15:04:15+08:00 | 45.276666666666664 |
| 2026-05-19T15:04:34+08:00 | 45.28523809523809 |
| 2026-05-19T15:05:17+08:00 | 45.67936507936508 |
| 2026-05-19T15:05:49+08:00 | 48.44126984126984 |
| 2026-05-19T15:31:48+08:00 | 48.514920634920635 |
| 2026-05-19T16:01:48+08:00 | 48.75126984126984 |
| 2026-05-19T16:02:04+08:00 | 48.82396825396825 |
| 2026-05-19T17:14:19+08:00 | 50.443015873015874 |
| 2026-05-19T17:14:28+08:00 | 52.712857142857146 |
| 2026-05-19T17:15:52+08:00 | 52.831428571428575 |
| 2026-05-19T17:16:00+08:00 | 52.64190476190476 |
| 2026-05-19T17:16:13+08:00 | 52.647619047619045 |
| 2026-05-19T17:16:16+08:00 | 52.65507936507937 |
| 2026-05-19T17:18:02+08:00 | 52.707142857142856 |
| 2026-05-19T17:18:21+08:00 | 53.18333333333333 |
| 2026-05-19T17:18:42+08:00 | 53.18857142857143 |
| 2026-05-19T17:19:17+08:00 | 53.215714285714284 |
| 2026-05-19T17:39:41+08:00 | 53.35079365079365 |
| 2026-05-19T18:00:02+08:00 | 53.28857142857143 |
| 2026-05-19T18:00:34+08:00 | 72.17746031746032 |
| 2026-05-19T18:01:18+08:00 | 72.16063492063492 |
| 2026-05-19T18:02:26+08:00 | 73.06952380952382 |
| 2026-05-19T18:03:07+08:00 | 73.25380952380952 |
| 2026-05-19T18:03:45+08:00 | 73.25412698412698 |
| 2026-05-19T18:27:02+08:00 | 73.90492063492063 |
| 2026-05-19T20:21:58+08:00 | 73.87476190476191 |
| 2026-05-19T20:22:45+08:00 | 73.88984126984127 |
| 2026-05-19T20:23:13+08:00 | 73.99317460317461 |
| 2026-05-19T20:23:36+08:00 | 74.61222222222223 |
| 2026-05-19T20:23:50+08:00 | 75.48523809523809 |
| 2026-05-19T21:52:31+08:00 | 75.48666666666666 |
| 2026-05-19T21:52:47+08:00 | 75.63 |
| 2026-05-19T21:53:00+08:00 | 75.64587301587302 |
| 2026-05-19T21:53:18+08:00 | 76.59825396825397 |
| 2026-05-19T22:08:37+08:00 | 76.95825396825397 |
| 2026-05-19T22:08:51+08:00 | 76.99 |
| 2026-05-19T22:09:08+08:00 | 77.18047619047618 |
| 2026-05-20T08:10:05+08:00 | 77.91619047619048 |
| 2026-05-20T08:10:16+08:00 | 78.70492063492064 |
| 2026-05-20T08:10:32+08:00 | 78.70587301587301 |
| 2026-05-20T08:10:41+08:00 | 78.69095238095238 |
| 2026-05-20T08:10:56+08:00 | 78.69095238095238 |
| 2026-05-20T08:11:17+08:00 | 81.45285714285714 |
| 2026-05-20T09:09:14+08:00 | 82.23063492063493 |
| 2026-05-20T09:09:27+08:00 | 82.27269841269842 |
| 2026-05-20T09:09:41+08:00 | 82.4831746031746 |
| 2026-05-20T09:09:46+08:00 | 82.51253968253968 |
| 2026-05-20T09:09:56+08:00 | 84.25857142857143 |
| 2026-05-20T10:05:22+08:00 | 84.38063492063492 |
| 2026-05-20T10:05:29+08:00 | 84.46 |
| 2026-05-20T10:05:36+08:00 | 84.48857142857143 |
| 2026-05-20T10:05:43+08:00 | 84.49603174603175 |
| 2026-05-20T10:05:51+08:00 | 84.78603174603174 |
| 2026-05-20T10:06:05+08:00 | 86.67492063492064 |
| 2026-05-20T11:04:28+08:00 | 86.83047619047619 |
| 2026-05-20T11:05:07+08:00 | 87.09857142857143 |
| 2026-05-20T11:05:34+08:00 | 87.16095238095238 |
| 2026-05-20T11:06:02+08:00 | 87.53206349206349 |
| 2026-05-20T11:06:46+08:00 | 87.53238095238095 |
| 2026-05-20T11:07:02+08:00 | 87.69111111111111 |
| 2026-05-20T12:11:38+08:00 | 87.8979365079365 |
| 2026-05-20T12:11:52+08:00 | 87.86428571428571 |
| 2026-05-20T12:12:41+08:00 | 88.04301587301588 |
| 2026-05-20T12:13:03+08:00 | 88.12825396825397 |
| 2026-05-20T12:13:33+08:00 | 88.13396825396825 |
| 2026-05-20T12:13:45+08:00 | 90.16571428571429 |
| 2026-05-20T12:39:25+08:00 | 90.35047619047619 |
| 2026-05-20T13:40:23+08:00 | 90.44285714285714 |
| 2026-05-20T13:41:04+08:00 | 90.46222222222222 |
| 2026-05-20T13:41:33+08:00 | 91.87539682539682 |
| 2026-05-20T13:42:15+08:00 | 91.87555555555555 |
| 2026-05-20T13:42:47+08:00 | 92.74857142857142 |
| 2026-05-20T13:43:10+08:00 | 92.76269841269841 |
| 2026-05-20T14:10:03+08:00 | 92.78539682539683 |
| 2026-05-20T14:10:58+08:00 | 92.80777777777777 |
| 2026-05-20T14:11:14+08:00 | 93.03333333333333 |
| 2026-05-20T14:12:01+08:00 | 93.04079365079365 |
| 2026-05-20T14:12:23+08:00 | 94.8979365079365 |
| 2026-05-20T14:53:21+08:00 | 96.58047619047619 |
| 2026-05-20T14:55:02+08:00 | 96.63920634920635 |
| 2026-05-20T15:05:50+08:00 | 96.67222222222222 |
| 2026-05-20T15:06:16+08:00 | 96.6588888888889 |
| 2026-05-20T15:06:55+08:00 | 96.84238095238095 |
| 2026-05-20T15:07:26+08:00 | 96.84873015873016 |
| 2026-05-20T15:07:37+08:00 | 99.02333333333333 |
| 2026-05-20T16:10:02+08:00 | 98.8268253968254 |
| 2026-05-20T16:10:33+08:00 | 99.9836507936508 |
| 2026-05-20T16:11:11+08:00 | 100.0584126984127 |
| 2026-05-20T16:11:26+08:00 | 106.51428571428572 |
| 2026-05-20T16:11:49+08:00 | 106.51444444444445 |
| 2026-05-20T16:12:06+08:00 | 136.83190476190475 |
| 2026-05-20T17:16:27+08:00 | 141.43507936507936 |
| 2026-05-20T17:16:51+08:00 | 141.64857142857142 |
| 2026-05-20T17:17:04+08:00 | 143.7604761904762 |
| 2026-05-20T17:17:23+08:00 | 145.1274603174603 |
| 2026-05-20T17:17:45+08:00 | 158.28396825396825 |
| 2026-05-20T17:18:03+08:00 | 158.48238095238096 |
| 2026-05-20T17:18:16+08:00 | 211.0379365079365 |
| 2026-05-20T17:18:27+08:00 | 211.8315873015873 |
| 2026-05-20T17:50:47+08:00 | 246.75222222222223 |
| 2026-05-20T17:50:52+08:00 | 249.07555555555555 |
| 2026-05-20T18:01:55+08:00 | 259.64698412698414 |
| 2026-05-20T18:02:54+08:00 | 259.87111111111113 |
| 2026-05-20T18:03:27+08:00 | 261.19380952380953 |
| 2026-05-20T18:03:49+08:00 | 267.6315873015873 |
| 2026-05-20T18:04:03+08:00 | 269.1846031746032 |
| 2026-05-20T18:09:56+08:00 | 298.7084126984127 |
| 2026-05-20T20:03:56+08:00 | 299.57126984126984 |
| 2026-05-20T20:04:41+08:00 | 301.15 |
| 2026-05-20T20:05:24+08:00 | 302.5168253968254 |
| 2026-05-20T20:06:19+08:00 | 310.094126984127 |
| 2026-05-20T20:06:43+08:00 | 335.2052380952381 |
| 2026-05-20T20:07:01+08:00 | 359.49095238095236 |
| 2026-05-20T21:35:54+08:00 | 360.4604761904762 |
| 2026-05-20T21:36:30+08:00 | 365.9374603174603 |
| 2026-05-20T21:36:50+08:00 | 366.67349206349206 |
| 2026-05-20T21:37:13+08:00 | 396.18142857142857 |
| 2026-05-20T22:09:51+08:00 | 402.98603174603176 |
| 2026-05-20T22:10:05+08:00 | 403.69920634920635 |
| 2026-05-20T22:10:27+08:00 | 446.1436507936508 |
| 2026-05-21T08:42:47+08:00 | 456.50873015873015 |
| 2026-05-21T08:42:58+08:00 | 485.5549206349206 |
| 2026-05-21T08:43:39+08:00 | 486.39 |
| 2026-05-21T08:43:51+08:00 | 490.5101587301587 |
| 2026-05-21T08:44:53+08:00 | 677.748253968254 |
| 2026-05-21T08:45:31+08:00 | 677.748253968254 |
| 2026-05-21T08:45:46+08:00 | 688.0657142857143 |
| 2026-05-21T09:01:43+08:00 | 696.2533333333333 |
| 2026-05-21T09:03:30+08:00 | 730.7303174603175 |
| 2026-05-21T09:07:37+08:00 | 739.1584126984127 |
| 2026-05-21T09:08:02+08:00 | 740.0806349206349 |
| 2026-05-21T09:08:42+08:00 | 791.128253968254 |
| 2026-05-21T09:40:31+08:00 | 794.7790476190477 |
| 2026-05-21T09:40:54+08:00 | 800.1257142857143 |
| 2026-05-21T10:09:39+08:00 | 801.1250793650794 |
| 2026-05-21T10:10:16+08:00 | 813.8153968253969 |
| 2026-05-21T10:11:10+08:00 | 937.2280952380952 |
| 2026-05-21T11:07:26+08:00 | 939.764126984127 |
| 2026-05-21T11:48:29+08:00 | 1223.891111111111 |
| 2026-05-21T17:31:03+08:00 | 1240.14 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 1971.99x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.670, 乙组 α=0.694) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
华曦达中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 华曦达（00901）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
