博雷顿 01333
新股中签预测
16.6005.74%( -1.010 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
17.8亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
12.5亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
4.8亿 |
| 4 |  信诚 |
2.5亿 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
1.8亿 |
| 6 |  TradeGo |
1.5亿 |
| 7 |  华泰 |
1.3亿 |
| 8 |  耀才 |
8000万 |
| 9 |  盈立 |
3432万 |
| 11 |  长桥 |
1964万 |
| 12 | 卓锐证券 | 418万 |
| 13 |  盈宝 |
291万 |
| 14 |  艾德 |
230万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2025-04-25T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-04-25T10:06:43+08:00 | 0.042735042735042736 |
| 2025-04-25T10:32:00+08:00 | 0.18247863247863247 |
| 2025-04-25T11:32:03+08:00 | 0.22179487179487178 |
| 2025-04-25T11:32:10+08:00 | 0.35 |
| 2025-04-25T11:32:13+08:00 | 0.4354700854700855 |
| 2025-04-25T11:47:00+08:00 | 0.4564102564102564 |
| 2025-04-25T12:07:49+08:00 | 0.5564102564102564 |
| 2025-04-25T12:07:56+08:00 | 1.111965811965812 |
| 2025-04-25T12:32:00+08:00 | 1.1192307692307693 |
| 2025-04-25T13:17:00+08:00 | 1.1226495726495727 |
| 2025-04-25T13:32:00+08:00 | 1.135042735042735 |
| 2025-04-25T13:46:06+08:00 | 1.1534188034188033 |
| 2025-04-25T13:46:14+08:00 | 1.4525641025641025 |
| 2025-04-25T13:46:21+08:00 | 1.708974358974359 |
| 2025-04-25T14:11:55+08:00 | 1.721794871794872 |
| 2025-04-25T14:12:04+08:00 | 2.020940170940171 |
| 2025-04-25T14:32:00+08:00 | 2.161111111111111 |
| 2025-04-25T15:39:10+08:00 | 2.2081196581196583 |
| 2025-04-25T15:39:22+08:00 | 2.55 |
| 2025-04-25T16:09:38+08:00 | 2.586752136752137 |
| 2025-04-25T16:47:01+08:00 | 2.855982905982906 |
| 2025-04-25T17:09:43+08:00 | 2.873076923076923 |
| 2025-04-25T17:09:50+08:00 | 3.4286324786324784 |
| 2025-04-25T17:50:49+08:00 | 3.514102564102564 |
| 2025-04-25T17:54:15+08:00 | 3.5568376068376066 |
| 2025-04-25T17:54:43+08:00 | 3.7705128205128204 |
| 2025-04-25T18:10:12+08:00 | 3.806410256410256 |
| 2025-04-25T18:10:34+08:00 | 5.098290598290598 |
| 2025-04-25T18:10:47+08:00 | 4.884615384615385 |
| 2025-04-25T18:11:54+08:00 | 5.053418803418803 |
| 2025-04-25T18:47:00+08:00 | 5.193162393162393 |
| 2025-04-25T20:06:58+08:00 | 5.1952991452991455 |
| 2025-04-25T20:07:10+08:00 | 5.665384615384616 |
| 2025-04-25T20:07:22+08:00 | 6.092735042735042 |
| 2025-04-25T22:08:41+08:00 | 6.349145299145299 |
| 2025-04-26T00:02:00+08:00 | 6.349145299145299 |
| 2025-04-26T00:17:00+08:00 | 6.474786324786325 |
| 2025-04-26T09:37:35+08:00 | 6.608974358974359 |
| 2025-04-26T09:38:10+08:00 | 8.061965811965813 |
| 2025-04-26T09:38:14+08:00 | 8.275641025641026 |
| 2025-04-26T09:38:19+08:00 | 8.532051282051283 |
| 2025-04-26T09:38:23+08:00 | 8.745726495726496 |
| 2025-04-26T09:38:38+08:00 | 8.745726495726496 |
| 2025-04-26T10:47:31+08:00 | 8.747435897435897 |
| 2025-04-26T10:47:35+08:00 | 11.518803418803419 |
| 2025-04-26T10:47:40+08:00 | 11.561538461538461 |
| 2025-04-26T12:06:59+08:00 | 11.564957264957265 |
| 2025-04-26T12:07:03+08:00 | 11.607692307692307 |
| 2025-04-26T12:07:07+08:00 | 11.614957264957265 |
| 2025-04-26T12:07:11+08:00 | 12.158547008547009 |
| 2025-04-26T12:07:30+08:00 | 12.457692307692307 |
| 2025-04-26T18:47:00+08:00 | 12.772649572649573 |
| 2025-04-26T19:02:00+08:00 | 13.401709401709402 |
| 2025-04-26T20:20:34+08:00 | 13.396581196581197 |
| 2025-04-26T20:21:00+08:00 | 13.781196581196582 |
| 2025-04-26T20:21:12+08:00 | 13.784188034188034 |
| 2025-04-26T20:21:23+08:00 | 13.81965811965812 |
| 2025-04-26T20:21:54+08:00 | 13.947863247863248 |
| 2025-04-26T20:22:01+08:00 | 13.964529914529914 |
| 2025-04-26T20:22:17+08:00 | 13.408974358974358 |
| 2025-04-26T20:22:26+08:00 | 13.411965811965812 |
| 2025-04-26T20:22:47+08:00 | 13.43034188034188 |
| 2025-04-26T20:22:57+08:00 | 13.585470085470085 |
| 2025-04-26T20:23:05+08:00 | 13.7991452991453 |
| 2025-04-26T20:23:30+08:00 | 13.927350427350428 |
| 2025-04-26T20:23:39+08:00 | 13.97008547008547 |
| 2025-04-26T20:47:00+08:00 | 14.17991452991453 |
| 2025-04-27T00:02:00+08:00 | 14.17991452991453 |
| 2025-04-27T09:14:47+08:00 | 14.308119658119658 |
| 2025-04-27T09:15:12+08:00 | 14.564529914529915 |
| 2025-04-27T09:15:42+08:00 | 14.607264957264958 |
| 2025-04-27T09:15:49+08:00 | 14.949145299145298 |
| 2025-04-27T09:16:01+08:00 | 14.863675213675213 |
| 2025-04-27T09:16:07+08:00 | 14.692735042735043 |
| 2025-04-27T09:16:15+08:00 | 14.713675213675213 |
| 2025-04-27T09:16:47+08:00 | 15.14102564102564 |
| 2025-04-27T10:20:17+08:00 | 15.142735042735042 |
| 2025-04-27T10:20:22+08:00 | 15.343589743589744 |
| 2025-04-27T11:02:00+08:00 | 15.483760683760684 |
| 2025-04-27T11:08:31+08:00 | 15.516239316239316 |
| 2025-04-27T11:08:56+08:00 | 15.815384615384616 |
| 2025-04-27T14:01:11+08:00 | 15.844444444444445 |
| 2025-04-27T14:01:17+08:00 | 16.070940170940172 |
| 2025-04-27T14:01:28+08:00 | 16.327350427350428 |
| 2025-04-27T14:01:38+08:00 | 16.328205128205127 |
| 2025-04-27T14:01:49+08:00 | 16.336324786324788 |
| 2025-04-27T14:09:08+08:00 | 16.613247863247864 |
| 2025-04-27T14:09:14+08:00 | 17.254273504273506 |
| 2025-04-27T16:04:43+08:00 | 17.25897435897436 |
| 2025-04-27T16:04:54+08:00 | 17.42991452991453 |
| 2025-04-27T16:05:01+08:00 | 17.439316239316238 |
| 2025-04-27T16:05:12+08:00 | 17.487606837606837 |
| 2025-04-27T16:05:18+08:00 | 16.974786324786326 |
| 2025-04-27T16:32:00+08:00 | 16.984615384615385 |
| 2025-04-27T17:32:00+08:00 | 17.01923076923077 |
| 2025-04-27T18:32:00+08:00 | 17.124358974358973 |
| 2025-04-27T18:47:00+08:00 | 17.57863247863248 |
| 2025-04-27T18:53:41+08:00 | 17.58162393162393 |
| 2025-04-27T18:53:47+08:00 | 17.966239316239317 |
| 2025-04-27T18:53:52+08:00 | 18.17991452991453 |
| 2025-04-27T18:54:05+08:00 | 18.18034188034188 |
| 2025-04-27T18:54:10+08:00 | 18.40982905982906 |
| 2025-04-27T18:54:21+08:00 | 19.47820512820513 |
| 2025-04-27T20:15:11+08:00 | 19.481623931623933 |
| 2025-04-27T20:15:23+08:00 | 19.60982905982906 |
| 2025-04-27T22:07:24+08:00 | 19.78076923076923 |
| 2025-04-27T22:07:35+08:00 | 19.90897435897436 |
| 2025-04-28T00:02:00+08:00 | 19.90897435897436 |
| 2025-04-28T07:32:00+08:00 | 19.925213675213676 |
| 2025-04-28T08:37:59+08:00 | 20.01068376068376 |
| 2025-04-28T08:38:17+08:00 | 20.01068376068376 |
| 2025-04-28T08:38:23+08:00 | 19.96794871794872 |
| 2025-04-28T08:38:58+08:00 | 19.96794871794872 |
| 2025-04-28T08:39:10+08:00 | 19.925213675213676 |
| 2025-04-28T09:25:32+08:00 | 19.967521367521368 |
| 2025-04-28T09:26:07+08:00 | 19.924786324786325 |
| 2025-04-28T09:32:00+08:00 | 19.926068376068375 |
| 2025-04-28T09:44:52+08:00 | 20.78076923076923 |
| 2025-04-28T09:47:00+08:00 | 21.03974358974359 |
| 2025-04-28T10:02:00+08:00 | 21.088461538461537 |
| 2025-04-28T10:21:34+08:00 | 21.155982905982906 |
| 2025-04-28T10:21:48+08:00 | 21.96794871794872 |
| 2025-04-28T10:22:30+08:00 | 22.978632478632477 |
| 2025-04-28T11:00:36+08:00 | 23.035042735042737 |
| 2025-04-28T11:37:10+08:00 | 23.291452991452992 |
| 2025-04-28T11:39:36+08:00 | 24.475213675213674 |
| 2025-04-28T11:44:46+08:00 | 24.735897435897435 |
| 2025-04-28T12:02:00+08:00 | 24.737606837606837 |
| 2025-04-28T12:07:07+08:00 | 24.77179487179487 |
| 2025-04-28T12:07:19+08:00 | 25.733760683760682 |
| 2025-04-28T12:08:28+08:00 | 27.357692307692307 |
| 2025-04-28T12:32:00+08:00 | 27.811965811965813 |
| 2025-04-28T13:46:29+08:00 | 28.025641025641026 |
| 2025-04-28T13:46:52+08:00 | 28.043589743589745 |
| 2025-04-28T13:47:36+08:00 | 28.214529914529916 |
| 2025-04-28T14:02:05+08:00 | 28.318376068376068 |
| 2025-04-28T14:03:16+08:00 | 28.491880341880343 |
| 2025-04-28T14:05:29+08:00 | 29.09017094017094 |
| 2025-04-28T15:23:48+08:00 | 29.13034188034188 |
| 2025-04-28T15:24:44+08:00 | 29.685897435897434 |
| 2025-04-28T16:05:19+08:00 | 29.723504273504272 |
| 2025-04-28T16:06:07+08:00 | 30.253418803418803 |
| 2025-04-28T16:06:25+08:00 | 31.10811965811966 |
| 2025-04-28T16:17:00+08:00 | 31.115384615384617 |
| 2025-04-28T16:34:09+08:00 | 31.371794871794872 |
| 2025-04-28T17:58:44+08:00 | 31.386324786324785 |
| 2025-04-28T17:59:09+08:00 | 32.88205128205128 |
| 2025-04-28T17:59:23+08:00 | 36.728205128205126 |
| 2025-04-28T17:59:56+08:00 | 36.74957264957265 |
| 2025-04-28T18:11:38+08:00 | 36.94871794871795 |
| 2025-04-28T18:12:14+08:00 | 37.76068376068376 |
| 2025-04-28T18:14:45+08:00 | 41.99145299145299 |
| 2025-04-28T18:17:50+08:00 | 42.62435897435898 |
| 2025-04-28T19:17:00+08:00 | 42.62692307692308 |
| 2025-04-28T20:02:00+08:00 | 42.62905982905983 |
| 2025-04-28T20:26:49+08:00 | 43.05641025641026 |
| 2025-04-28T20:27:05+08:00 | 43.06794871794872 |
| 2025-04-28T20:27:34+08:00 | 43.70897435897436 |
| 2025-04-28T20:28:33+08:00 | 44.77735042735043 |
| 2025-04-28T22:09:00+08:00 | 47.597863247863245 |
| 2025-04-28T22:09:39+08:00 | 48.36709401709402 |
| 2025-04-29T04:02:00+08:00 | 48.36923076923077 |
| 2025-04-29T08:46:28+08:00 | 48.36923076923077 |
| 2025-04-29T08:47:00+08:00 | 48.41111111111111 |
| 2025-04-29T08:47:49+08:00 | 49.43675213675213 |
| 2025-04-29T08:47:53+08:00 | 50.37692307692308 |
| 2025-04-29T08:47:56+08:00 | 50.50512820512821 |
| 2025-04-29T08:47:59+08:00 | 51.01794871794872 |
| 2025-04-29T09:08:02+08:00 | 51.077777777777776 |
| 2025-04-29T09:08:51+08:00 | 52.146153846153844 |
| 2025-04-29T09:32:00+08:00 | 52.14700854700855 |
| 2025-04-29T10:02:00+08:00 | 52.15512820512821 |
| 2025-04-29T10:06:22+08:00 | 54.772222222222226 |
| 2025-04-29T10:06:49+08:00 | 54.963247863247865 |
| 2025-04-29T10:10:21+08:00 | 55.81794871794872 |
| 2025-04-29T10:10:35+08:00 | 58.85213675213675 |
| 2025-04-29T11:02:00+08:00 | 58.85940170940171 |
| 2025-04-29T11:02:34+08:00 | 58.89572649572649 |
| 2025-04-29T11:17:00+08:00 | 59.10982905982906 |
| 2025-04-29T12:02:00+08:00 | 59.108119658119655 |
| 2025-04-29T12:11:11+08:00 | 62.27051282051282 |
| 2025-04-29T12:14:57+08:00 | 62.697863247863246 |
| 2025-04-29T12:15:37+08:00 | 62.71025641025641 |
| 2025-04-29T12:16:35+08:00 | 63.97179487179487 |
| 2025-04-29T12:17:00+08:00 | 64.0 |
| 2025-04-29T12:17:52+08:00 | 66.35042735042735 |
| 2025-04-29T12:32:00+08:00 | 66.38247863247864 |
| 2025-04-29T13:02:00+08:00 | 66.41752136752137 |
| 2025-04-29T13:41:23+08:00 | 66.54786324786325 |
| 2025-04-29T13:42:29+08:00 | 67.1034188034188 |
| 2025-04-29T14:07:49+08:00 | 67.34401709401709 |
| 2025-04-29T14:08:29+08:00 | 69.22435897435898 |
| 2025-04-29T14:17:00+08:00 | 70.06324786324787 |
| 2025-04-29T14:32:00+08:00 | 70.0982905982906 |
| 2025-04-29T14:47:00+08:00 | 70.46880341880342 |
| 2025-04-29T15:02:00+08:00 | 70.48290598290598 |
| 2025-04-29T15:08:50+08:00 | 71.93589743589743 |
| 2025-04-29T15:17:00+08:00 | 71.98076923076923 |
| 2025-04-29T15:32:00+08:00 | 72.01923076923077 |
| 2025-04-29T15:47:00+08:00 | 72.48076923076923 |
| 2025-04-29T16:02:00+08:00 | 72.57863247863249 |
| 2025-04-29T16:07:47+08:00 | 74.20042735042735 |
| 2025-04-29T16:08:18+08:00 | 76.89273504273504 |
| 2025-04-29T16:17:00+08:00 | 76.94871794871794 |
| 2025-04-29T16:28:26+08:00 | 77.80341880341881 |
| 2025-04-29T16:29:23+08:00 | 79.94017094017094 |
| 2025-04-29T17:05:28+08:00 | 81.90598290598291 |
| 2025-04-29T17:48:45+08:00 | 92.58974358974359 |
| 2025-04-29T17:49:41+08:00 | 95.7948717948718 |
| 2025-04-29T18:04:22+08:00 | 97.00213675213675 |
| 2025-04-29T18:05:26+08:00 | 98.58333333333333 |
| 2025-04-29T18:22:16+08:00 | 101.10641025641026 |
| 2025-04-29T21:23:42+08:00 | 101.21111111111111 |
| 2025-04-29T21:24:16+08:00 | 103.3051282051282 |
| 2025-04-29T21:24:28+08:00 | 103.34017094017094 |
| 2025-04-29T21:24:35+08:00 | 103.37521367521367 |
| 2025-04-29T21:24:55+08:00 | 106.19572649572649 |
| 2025-04-29T21:25:17+08:00 | 106.20982905982906 |
| 2025-04-29T21:25:37+08:00 | 108.9448717948718 |
| 2025-04-29T21:25:50+08:00 | 108.9482905982906 |
| 2025-04-29T22:09:08+08:00 | 108.9551282051282 |
| 2025-04-29T22:09:26+08:00 | 112.63034188034187 |
| 2025-04-30T09:02:50+08:00 | 112.63760683760684 |
| 2025-04-30T09:03:03+08:00 | 112.64102564102564 |
| 2025-04-30T09:03:11+08:00 | 115.76068376068376 |
| 2025-04-30T09:03:22+08:00 | 115.7957264957265 |
| 2025-04-30T09:03:30+08:00 | 115.80555555555556 |
| 2025-04-30T09:03:36+08:00 | 115.80555555555556 |
| 2025-04-30T09:03:42+08:00 | 118.88247863247864 |
| 2025-04-30T09:03:53+08:00 | 118.88247863247864 |
| 2025-04-30T09:03:59+08:00 | 118.88931623931624 |
| 2025-04-30T09:04:05+08:00 | 122.3508547008547 |
| 2025-04-30T09:04:14+08:00 | 122.36495726495727 |
| 2025-04-30T09:04:19+08:00 | 123.21965811965812 |
| 2025-04-30T09:04:25+08:00 | 123.43333333333334 |
| 2025-04-30T09:04:36+08:00 | 124.07435897435897 |
| 2025-04-30T09:04:42+08:00 | 124.15982905982906 |
| 2025-04-30T09:04:49+08:00 | 123.9034188034188 |
| 2025-04-30T09:05:01+08:00 | 124.8008547008547 |
| 2025-04-30T09:05:09+08:00 | 124.69572649572649 |
| 2025-04-30T09:05:15+08:00 | 127.77264957264957 |
| 2025-04-30T09:05:28+08:00 | 127.82179487179488 |
| 2025-04-30T09:05:37+08:00 | 133.4628205128205 |
| 2025-04-30T09:27:46+08:00 | 136.45427350427352 |
| 2025-04-30T10:01:28+08:00 | 136.52179487179487 |
| 2025-04-30T10:01:34+08:00 | 136.6059829059829 |
| 2025-04-30T10:05:58+08:00 | 141.57222222222222 |
| 2025-04-30T10:06:14+08:00 | 141.78846153846155 |
| 2025-04-30T10:22:48+08:00 | 178.96794871794873 |
| 2025-04-30T10:22:52+08:00 | 179.32350427350428 |
| 2025-04-30T10:33:41+08:00 | 179.3619658119658 |
| 2025-04-30T12:10:47+08:00 | 183.63547008547008 |
| 2025-04-30T18:57:14+08:00 | 186.99 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 198.72x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.508, 乙组 α=0.608) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
博雷顿中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 博雷顿（01333）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
