胜宏科技 02476
新股中签预测
100.30013.46%( -15.600 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
3197.3亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
1100.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
477.9亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
177.8亿 |
| 5 |  招银 |
113.0亿 |
| 6 |  华盛 |
68.0亿 |
| 7 |  信诚 |
50.0亿 |
| 8 |  熊猫 |
29.7亿 |
| 9 |  盈立 |
23.2亿 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-13T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-04-13T10:02:48+08:00 | 0.0024695451349389186 |
| 2026-04-13T10:03:59+08:00 | 0.0072714384528757055 |
| 2026-04-13T10:05:31+08:00 | 0.02842263521045441 |
| 2026-04-13T11:09:23+08:00 | 0.029623108539938603 |
| 2026-04-13T11:09:51+08:00 | 0.040347336949997425 |
| 2026-04-13T11:10:25+08:00 | 0.8446644677044092 |
| 2026-04-13T11:13:31+08:00 | 0.8763626801424562 |
| 2026-04-13T11:14:42+08:00 | 0.8820792198066666 |
| 2026-04-13T12:02:47+08:00 | 0.8900880918762255 |
| 2026-04-13T12:08:44+08:00 | 0.8901852730505171 |
| 2026-04-13T12:09:28+08:00 | 0.8942840319897559 |
| 2026-04-13T12:10:34+08:00 | 1.1378086216851215 |
| 2026-04-13T12:10:52+08:00 | 1.143525161349332 |
| 2026-04-13T13:47:04+08:00 | 1.1590227003790066 |
| 2026-04-13T13:47:48+08:00 | 1.314512579245531 |
| 2026-04-13T13:48:29+08:00 | 1.3189771967232795 |
| 2026-04-13T14:08:17+08:00 | 1.3267802733649268 |
| 2026-04-13T14:08:37+08:00 | 1.3269574860945172 |
| 2026-04-13T14:08:52+08:00 | 1.3477313912342581 |
| 2026-04-13T14:09:17+08:00 | 1.49636142250373 |
| 2026-04-13T14:11:13+08:00 | 1.524881238888476 |
| 2026-04-13T15:11:21+08:00 | 1.5290600293830139 |
| 2026-04-13T15:11:43+08:00 | 1.6862648701488014 |
| 2026-04-13T15:12:00+08:00 | 1.6862705866884657 |
| 2026-04-13T15:12:20+08:00 | 1.7060097981489843 |
| 2026-04-13T15:12:56+08:00 | 1.7117263378131948 |
| 2026-04-13T16:05:22+08:00 | 2.462307995724028 |
| 2026-04-13T16:05:34+08:00 | 2.520090778649868 |
| 2026-04-13T16:06:04+08:00 | 2.520422337950392 |
| 2026-04-13T16:06:39+08:00 | 2.52890568281208 |
| 2026-04-13T17:11:13+08:00 | 2.529385872143874 |
| 2026-04-13T17:11:35+08:00 | 2.5876945767188206 |
| 2026-04-13T17:12:00+08:00 | 2.589152294333194 |
| 2026-04-13T17:12:15+08:00 | 2.6006196728996005 |
| 2026-04-13T17:28:47+08:00 | 3.080809004693279 |
| 2026-04-13T18:13:04+08:00 | 3.0827469116394464 |
| 2026-04-13T18:13:33+08:00 | 3.091556099261995 |
| 2026-04-13T18:14:06+08:00 | 3.091704729293264 |
| 2026-04-13T18:14:27+08:00 | 3.2414780684955784 |
| 2026-04-13T18:17:29+08:00 | 3.2526539035391098 |
| 2026-04-13T20:32:40+08:00 | 3.25526064562599 |
| 2026-04-13T20:36:31+08:00 | 3.255895181528717 |
| 2026-04-13T20:37:11+08:00 | 3.280196191641276 |
| 2026-04-13T20:37:39+08:00 | 3.347651359678959 |
| 2026-04-13T20:37:53+08:00 | 3.4551223053661158 |
| 2026-04-13T22:09:22+08:00 | 3.5141741600974097 |
| 2026-04-13T22:09:50+08:00 | 3.5142942074303583 |
| 2026-04-13T22:10:10+08:00 | 3.583464337367305 |
| 2026-04-13T22:10:25+08:00 | 3.684075435457409 |
| 2026-04-14T08:35:13+08:00 | 3.697720815635879 |
| 2026-04-14T08:35:21+08:00 | 3.722810708222099 |
| 2026-04-14T08:35:51+08:00 | 3.723410944886841 |
| 2026-04-14T08:35:59+08:00 | 3.7235938741560957 |
| 2026-04-14T08:36:20+08:00 | 3.7235938741560957 |
| 2026-04-14T08:37:52+08:00 | 4.23408086617009 |
| 2026-04-14T09:02:02+08:00 | 4.299849655006831 |
| 2026-04-14T09:03:38+08:00 | 4.304502918293498 |
| 2026-04-14T09:04:07+08:00 | 4.304485768674506 |
| 2026-04-14T09:05:20+08:00 | 4.364812411750919 |
| 2026-04-14T09:07:14+08:00 | 4.483716436766496 |
| 2026-04-14T09:26:16+08:00 | 4.512299135087549 |
| 2026-04-14T10:07:11+08:00 | 4.518650210654487 |
| 2026-04-14T10:07:54+08:00 | 5.1972034687962685 |
| 2026-04-14T10:08:01+08:00 | 5.197563610795114 |
| 2026-04-14T10:08:30+08:00 | 5.220246840182701 |
| 2026-04-14T11:05:05+08:00 | 5.229490484819729 |
| 2026-04-14T11:05:46+08:00 | 5.325528351178464 |
| 2026-04-14T11:05:52+08:00 | 5.326008540510259 |
| 2026-04-14T11:06:38+08:00 | 5.33472626349818 |
| 2026-04-14T12:10:12+08:00 | 5.33707576130017 |
| 2026-04-14T12:10:21+08:00 | 5.352207441791335 |
| 2026-04-14T12:10:24+08:00 | 5.352361788362269 |
| 2026-04-14T12:10:27+08:00 | 5.641047041404897 |
| 2026-04-14T13:45:54+08:00 | 5.650719426516741 |
| 2026-04-14T13:46:18+08:00 | 5.652017081020516 |
| 2026-04-14T13:46:38+08:00 | 5.652457254574661 |
| 2026-04-14T13:46:46+08:00 | 5.873687339579606 |
| 2026-04-14T13:48:47+08:00 | 5.965151974206973 |
| 2026-04-14T14:05:49+08:00 | 6.0365687042319545 |
| 2026-04-14T14:06:13+08:00 | 6.108322710097124 |
| 2026-04-14T14:06:16+08:00 | 6.108374158954102 |
| 2026-04-14T14:06:19+08:00 | 6.36390348194431 |
| 2026-04-14T14:06:46+08:00 | 6.502386655309808 |
| 2026-04-14T15:05:06+08:00 | 6.523314907020483 |
| 2026-04-14T15:05:28+08:00 | 6.5445632849523525 |
| 2026-04-14T15:05:30+08:00 | 6.544877694633884 |
| 2026-04-14T15:05:33+08:00 | 6.7272353099221975 |
| 2026-04-14T15:36:24+08:00 | 7.013062293132721 |
| 2026-04-14T15:45:23+08:00 | 7.035928451789562 |
| 2026-04-14T16:26:30+08:00 | 7.051711817802448 |
| 2026-04-14T16:26:39+08:00 | 7.1534090584287515 |
| 2026-04-14T16:26:42+08:00 | 7.1542379566800625 |
| 2026-04-14T16:26:45+08:00 | 9.43113570493509 |
| 2026-04-14T16:57:15+08:00 | 9.659797291503507 |
| 2026-04-14T17:10:19+08:00 | 9.66805769131829 |
| 2026-04-14T17:10:34+08:00 | 10.494857972572042 |
| 2026-04-14T17:10:37+08:00 | 10.496189926313804 |
| 2026-04-14T17:10:40+08:00 | 13.670584401849872 |
| 2026-04-14T17:27:43+08:00 | 14.699561541407755 |
| 2026-04-14T18:09:19+08:00 | 14.70089921168918 |
| 2026-04-14T18:09:32+08:00 | 14.954765021637103 |
| 2026-04-14T18:09:56+08:00 | 14.955531037952106 |
| 2026-04-14T18:10:02+08:00 | 16.338361982724617 |
| 2026-04-14T18:11:04+08:00 | 16.935042959795577 |
| 2026-04-14T20:28:20+08:00 | 16.943972194751073 |
| 2026-04-14T20:28:35+08:00 | 16.94585865284026 |
| 2026-04-14T20:28:40+08:00 | 17.018195745751182 |
| 2026-04-14T20:28:44+08:00 | 17.730476587911806 |
| 2026-04-14T20:28:56+08:00 | 17.823221727423956 |
| 2026-04-14T20:29:02+08:00 | 17.82329604243959 |
| 2026-04-14T20:29:08+08:00 | 19.03120087348726 |
| 2026-04-14T22:31:47+08:00 | 19.181002795387897 |
| 2026-04-14T22:31:51+08:00 | 19.181865992877192 |
| 2026-04-14T22:31:57+08:00 | 19.819831819403078 |
| 2026-04-14T22:32:02+08:00 | 19.98601734398134 |
| 2026-04-14T22:32:06+08:00 | 19.98719495115217 |
| 2026-04-14T22:32:12+08:00 | 20.567995381035953 |
| 2026-04-15T08:44:12+08:00 | 20.56832122379681 |
| 2026-04-15T08:44:15+08:00 | 20.56985325642682 |
| 2026-04-15T08:44:26+08:00 | 20.63225500340134 |
| 2026-04-15T08:44:29+08:00 | 20.96706129845482 |
| 2026-04-15T08:44:38+08:00 | 24.451863877757514 |
| 2026-04-15T08:44:45+08:00 | 24.451863877757514 |
| 2026-04-15T09:07:17+08:00 | 24.478308590244154 |
| 2026-04-15T09:07:41+08:00 | 24.559460587317286 |
| 2026-04-15T09:07:44+08:00 | 24.56148995889808 |
| 2026-04-15T09:07:47+08:00 | 25.342369277029228 |
| 2026-04-15T09:08:11+08:00 | 25.77149847654218 |
| 2026-04-15T09:34:15+08:00 | 26.057325459752704 |
| 2026-04-15T10:08:55+08:00 | 26.7541487786613 |
| 2026-04-15T10:09:21+08:00 | 29.13222927897285 |
| 2026-04-15T10:09:57+08:00 | 29.351664370523235 |
| 2026-04-15T10:10:05+08:00 | 31.071199501517743 |
| 2026-04-15T10:10:18+08:00 | 31.136688179910937 |
| 2026-04-15T11:14:44+08:00 | 31.16347016823776 |
| 2026-04-15T11:15:41+08:00 | 31.440642310396672 |
| 2026-04-15T11:16:16+08:00 | 31.51030406274474 |
| 2026-04-15T11:16:33+08:00 | 32.96116182952135 |
| 2026-04-15T12:08:50+08:00 | 32.965111958429326 |
| 2026-04-15T12:09:19+08:00 | 33.07925982244428 |
| 2026-04-15T12:09:28+08:00 | 33.11283305989219 |
| 2026-04-15T12:10:14+08:00 | 33.221447313512186 |
| 2026-04-15T12:10:25+08:00 | 34.74890671178922 |
| 2026-04-15T13:41:41+08:00 | 34.755400700847765 |
| 2026-04-15T13:41:55+08:00 | 34.781376657081935 |
| 2026-04-15T13:42:08+08:00 | 35.64743241620982 |
| 2026-04-15T13:42:55+08:00 | 35.591113067438016 |
| 2026-04-15T14:06:29+08:00 | 35.72128439213176 |
| 2026-04-15T14:06:45+08:00 | 35.6919356774957 |
| 2026-04-15T14:07:08+08:00 | 35.70359741841069 |
| 2026-04-15T14:07:45+08:00 | 37.61635159005551 |
| 2026-04-15T14:08:45+08:00 | 38.18633061035494 |
| 2026-04-15T15:03:35+08:00 | 38.23665902555865 |
| 2026-04-15T15:04:05+08:00 | 38.246182780639224 |
| 2026-04-15T15:05:27+08:00 | 39.17397716814058 |
| 2026-04-15T15:11:15+08:00 | 39.28259142176058 |
| 2026-04-15T15:16:32+08:00 | 40.56685207310311 |
| 2026-04-15T16:28:13+08:00 | 40.58295556533719 |
| 2026-04-15T16:29:05+08:00 | 43.50952661335041 |
| 2026-04-15T16:29:15+08:00 | 43.51977636896834 |
| 2026-04-15T16:29:58+08:00 | 54.24857801075853 |
| 2026-04-15T16:30:12+08:00 | 54.87739737382168 |
| 2026-04-15T16:34:19+08:00 | 57.44984022271638 |
| 2026-04-15T17:05:01+08:00 | 57.553835512287705 |
| 2026-04-15T17:05:22+08:00 | 60.45025753011187 |
| 2026-04-15T17:05:36+08:00 | 81.61803225271679 |
| 2026-04-15T17:05:50+08:00 | 81.63843458277836 |
| 2026-04-15T18:05:25+08:00 | 83.18303216696869 |
| 2026-04-15T18:05:42+08:00 | 83.71900349280574 |
| 2026-04-15T18:06:04+08:00 | 94.59243358810045 |
| 2026-04-15T18:08:52+08:00 | 97.62119921569075 |
| 2026-04-15T20:15:47+08:00 | 97.87093768400112 |
| 2026-04-15T20:15:57+08:00 | 98.02411236430363 |
| 2026-04-15T20:16:16+08:00 | 99.38336829950094 |
| 2026-04-15T20:16:25+08:00 | 101.2171484756847 |
| 2026-04-15T20:16:44+08:00 | 109.53128376331239 |
| 2026-04-15T20:16:58+08:00 | 129.539172588049 |
| 2026-04-15T20:17:03+08:00 | 131.02547290074372 |
| 2026-04-15T20:17:08+08:00 | 138.00936940850963 |
| 2026-04-15T22:20:30+08:00 | 139.3888218783406 |
| 2026-04-15T22:20:34+08:00 | 139.5168609337396 |
| 2026-04-15T22:20:45+08:00 | 147.29021156913296 |
| 2026-04-15T22:21:02+08:00 | 148.76024260994336 |
| 2026-04-15T22:21:07+08:00 | 148.84444152265752 |
| 2026-04-15T22:21:19+08:00 | 158.0120561821518 |
| 2026-04-16T08:35:55+08:00 | 159.04257107087938 |
| 2026-04-16T08:36:01+08:00 | 163.64546592656532 |
| 2026-04-16T08:36:18+08:00 | 163.74810639623624 |
| 2026-04-16T08:36:24+08:00 | 163.92727989893157 |
| 2026-04-16T08:36:35+08:00 | 204.1437080906186 |
| 2026-04-16T08:37:36+08:00 | 204.1437080906186 |
| 2026-04-16T09:03:41+08:00 | 205.84981506994185 |
| 2026-04-16T09:03:52+08:00 | 205.84978648724353 |
| 2026-04-16T09:05:39+08:00 | 211.15257444363777 |
| 2026-04-16T09:06:34+08:00 | 224.34520468070266 |
| 2026-04-16T09:39:43+08:00 | 225.31701642361847 |
| 2026-04-16T10:22:24+08:00 | 227.26271501334813 |
| 2026-04-16T10:22:43+08:00 | 253.7914606330496 |
| 2026-04-16T11:10:09+08:00 | 254.01601202759946 |
| 2026-04-16T11:10:28+08:00 | 293.0028125375148 |
| 2026-04-16T18:09:07+08:00 | 302.99 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 431.15x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.672, 乙组 α=0.772) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
胜宏科技中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 胜宏科技（02476）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
