圣贝拉 02508中签预测
圣贝拉（02508）中签预测
| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
46.3亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
29.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
11.1亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
4.7亿 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
1.1亿 |
| 6 |  长桥 |
1.1亿 |
| 8 |  TradeGo |
7998万 |
| 9 |  信诚 |
7500万 |
| 10 |  盈立 |
4007万 |
| 11 |  耀才 |
3900万 |
| 12 | 尊嘉证券 | 3000万 |
| 13 | 卓锐证券 | 504万 |
| 14 |  盈宝 |
483万 |
| 15 |  艾德 |
418万 |
| 16 |  Funderstone |
10万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-18T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-06-18T10:04:04+08:00 | 0.002070393374741201 |
| 2025-06-18T10:07:59+08:00 | 0.049848702022615064 |
| 2025-06-18T10:57:59+08:00 | 0.0817009077878643 |
| 2025-06-18T11:06:30+08:00 | 0.09173435260391782 |
| 2025-06-18T11:06:52+08:00 | 0.12868291129160694 |
| 2025-06-18T11:08:46+08:00 | 0.797579232361841 |
| 2025-06-18T12:11:09+08:00 | 0.8096830705526358 |
| 2025-06-18T12:11:26+08:00 | 1.2307692307692308 |
| 2025-06-18T12:12:01+08:00 | 1.390030259595477 |
| 2025-06-18T12:12:21+08:00 | 1.3901895206243033 |
| 2025-06-18T12:12:37+08:00 | 1.4258639910813824 |
| 2025-06-18T13:41:52+08:00 | 1.4343048256091735 |
| 2025-06-18T13:42:27+08:00 | 1.4378085682433508 |
| 2025-06-18T13:43:10+08:00 | 1.4696607740086 |
| 2025-06-18T14:01:02+08:00 | 1.4769867813346074 |
| 2025-06-18T14:02:10+08:00 | 1.5003981525720655 |
| 2025-06-18T14:05:14+08:00 | 1.804745978659022 |
| 2025-06-18T14:05:46+08:00 | 1.8066571110049372 |
| 2025-06-18T14:06:24+08:00 | 1.8862876254180603 |
| 2025-06-18T14:58:38+08:00 | 1.9625736582258322 |
| 2025-06-18T15:17:56+08:00 | 1.9655996177735309 |
| 2025-06-18T15:18:11+08:00 | 1.9839146360885491 |
| 2025-06-18T15:18:46+08:00 | 2.0953973562669215 |
| 2025-06-18T16:06:35+08:00 | 2.098741837872273 |
| 2025-06-18T16:07:32+08:00 | 2.130594043637522 |
| 2025-06-18T16:08:01+08:00 | 2.136486701704093 |
| 2025-06-18T16:08:27+08:00 | 2.1884057971014492 |
| 2025-06-18T17:05:24+08:00 | 2.190316929447364 |
| 2025-06-18T17:05:50+08:00 | 2.198439241917503 |
| 2025-06-18T17:06:20+08:00 | 2.2462175505653765 |
| 2025-06-18T17:16:43+08:00 | 2.4691829909221212 |
| 2025-06-18T17:32:09+08:00 | 2.5169612995699953 |
| 2025-06-18T18:05:35+08:00 | 2.518235387800605 |
| 2025-06-18T18:06:19+08:00 | 2.549609810479376 |
| 2025-06-18T18:06:34+08:00 | 2.5335244465679247 |
| 2025-06-18T18:07:22+08:00 | 2.692785475394171 |
| 2025-06-18T18:11:39+08:00 | 2.712215320910973 |
| 2025-06-18T20:14:32+08:00 | 2.7544194935499284 |
| 2025-06-18T20:14:39+08:00 | 2.7526676222328397 |
| 2025-06-18T20:15:29+08:00 | 2.768593725115464 |
| 2025-06-18T20:16:04+08:00 | 2.779423475075649 |
| 2025-06-18T20:16:50+08:00 | 2.859053989488772 |
| 2025-06-18T20:39:09+08:00 | 3.0183150183150182 |
| 2025-06-18T21:11:56+08:00 | 3.027233635929288 |
| 2025-06-18T21:12:41+08:00 | 3.1387163561076603 |
| 2025-06-18T22:08:45+08:00 | 3.137123745819398 |
| 2025-06-18T22:09:25+08:00 | 3.1530498487020227 |
| 2025-06-19T07:21:03+08:00 | 3.158942506768594 |
| 2025-06-19T07:21:08+08:00 | 3.1431756649147955 |
| 2025-06-19T07:21:13+08:00 | 3.159579550883899 |
| 2025-06-19T07:24:55+08:00 | 3.2869883739448955 |
| 2025-06-19T07:24:59+08:00 | 3.4940277114190157 |
| 2025-06-19T07:27:04+08:00 | 3.4940277114190157 |
| 2025-06-19T09:24:48+08:00 | 3.5281095715878323 |
| 2025-06-19T09:30:01+08:00 | 3.544035674470457 |
| 2025-06-19T09:30:38+08:00 | 3.5908584169453737 |
| 2025-06-19T09:31:41+08:00 | 3.6386367255932472 |
| 2025-06-19T09:32:51+08:00 | 3.6864150342411213 |
| 2025-06-19T10:06:41+08:00 | 3.6937410415671286 |
| 2025-06-19T10:06:55+08:00 | 3.94951425386208 |
| 2025-06-19T10:07:10+08:00 | 3.950310559006211 |
| 2025-06-19T10:07:49+08:00 | 4.077719382067208 |
| 2025-06-19T11:05:46+08:00 | 4.092371396719223 |
| 2025-06-19T11:06:29+08:00 | 4.140149705367096 |
| 2025-06-19T11:06:56+08:00 | 4.135371874502309 |
| 2025-06-19T11:08:30+08:00 | 4.150501672240803 |
| 2025-06-19T11:24:17+08:00 | 4.405319318362797 |
| 2025-06-19T12:12:52+08:00 | 4.406911928651059 |
| 2025-06-19T12:13:20+08:00 | 4.4156712852365025 |
| 2025-06-19T12:13:56+08:00 | 4.208631947762383 |
| 2025-06-19T12:14:28+08:00 | 4.210383819079471 |
| 2025-06-19T13:43:28+08:00 | 4.211498646281255 |
| 2025-06-19T13:44:10+08:00 | 4.211976429367733 |
| 2025-06-19T13:44:44+08:00 | 4.148272017837235 |
| 2025-06-19T14:01:32+08:00 | 4.148112756808409 |
| 2025-06-19T14:01:55+08:00 | 4.159579550883898 |
| 2025-06-19T14:03:40+08:00 | 4.689918776875299 |
| 2025-06-19T14:05:54+08:00 | 4.691352126134735 |
| 2025-06-19T14:06:23+08:00 | 4.696767001114827 |
| 2025-06-19T15:10:13+08:00 | 4.699474438604874 |
| 2025-06-19T15:10:47+08:00 | 4.842809364548495 |
| 2025-06-19T15:11:17+08:00 | 4.864628125497691 |
| 2025-06-19T16:05:07+08:00 | 4.865583691670648 |
| 2025-06-19T16:06:03+08:00 | 5.678451982799809 |
| 2025-06-19T16:06:38+08:00 | 5.694378085682433 |
| 2025-06-19T16:06:58+08:00 | 5.6880076445293835 |
| 2025-06-19T17:07:03+08:00 | 5.688485427615863 |
| 2025-06-19T17:07:30+08:00 | 5.698837394489568 |
| 2025-06-19T17:08:00+08:00 | 6.734034081860169 |
| 2025-06-19T18:03:04+08:00 | 6.736900780379041 |
| 2025-06-19T18:03:28+08:00 | 6.737537824494346 |
| 2025-06-19T18:03:55+08:00 | 7.5994585125019904 |
| 2025-06-19T18:04:12+08:00 | 7.800923713967192 |
| 2025-06-19T18:08:10+08:00 | 9.712056059882148 |
| 2025-06-19T18:08:40+08:00 | 9.823538780060519 |
| 2025-06-19T18:11:36+08:00 | 9.836598184424272 |
| 2025-06-19T20:07:21+08:00 | 9.838031533683708 |
| 2025-06-19T20:07:33+08:00 | 9.837713011626056 |
| 2025-06-19T20:07:39+08:00 | 10.065615543876413 |
| 2025-06-19T20:08:08+08:00 | 10.559324733237776 |
| 2025-06-19T20:08:41+08:00 | 10.59308807134894 |
| 2025-06-19T20:09:15+08:00 | 11.214206083771302 |
| 2025-06-19T20:13:54+08:00 | 12.249402771141902 |
| 2025-06-19T21:00:03+08:00 | 12.703933747412009 |
| 2025-06-19T21:17:55+08:00 | 12.704889313584966 |
| 2025-06-19T21:18:08+08:00 | 12.78611243828635 |
| 2025-06-19T21:18:39+08:00 | 13.136486701704094 |
| 2025-06-19T21:18:57+08:00 | 13.260232521102086 |
| 2025-06-19T22:25:44+08:00 | 13.28889950629081 |
| 2025-06-19T22:26:00+08:00 | 13.238891543239369 |
| 2025-06-19T22:26:34+08:00 | 14.194457716196847 |
| 2025-06-20T08:42:58+08:00 | 15.834846313107183 |
| 2025-06-20T08:43:01+08:00 | 15.914476827520305 |
| 2025-06-20T08:43:03+08:00 | 16.1055900621118 |
| 2025-06-20T08:43:07+08:00 | 16.296703296703296 |
| 2025-06-20T08:45:53+08:00 | 16.36359292881032 |
| 2025-06-20T08:45:56+08:00 | 16.380315336837075 |
| 2025-06-20T08:46:00+08:00 | 16.408186016881668 |
| 2025-06-20T08:46:05+08:00 | 16.411849020544672 |
| 2025-06-20T08:46:07+08:00 | 16.45644210861602 |
| 2025-06-20T08:47:36+08:00 | 16.46026437330785 |
| 2025-06-20T08:47:38+08:00 | 16.46121993948081 |
| 2025-06-20T08:47:42+08:00 | 16.470775601210384 |
| 2025-06-20T08:48:28+08:00 | 16.470775601210384 |
| 2025-06-20T09:54:19+08:00 | 16.544513457556935 |
| 2025-06-20T09:54:25+08:00 | 16.55996177735308 |
| 2025-06-20T09:54:28+08:00 | 16.57907310081223 |
| 2025-06-20T09:54:32+08:00 | 16.58002866698519 |
| 2025-06-20T09:55:52+08:00 | 16.83484631310718 |
| 2025-06-20T09:56:36+08:00 | 16.88549132027393 |
| 2025-06-20T09:57:45+08:00 | 16.992992514731647 |
| 2025-06-20T10:06:18+08:00 | 17.032011466794074 |
| 2025-06-20T10:07:00+08:00 | 18.226469182990922 |
| 2025-06-20T10:07:48+08:00 | 20.805223761745502 |
| 2025-06-20T10:08:12+08:00 | 20.822423952858735 |
| 2025-06-20T10:08:34+08:00 | 20.90874343048256 |
| 2025-06-20T10:08:59+08:00 | 21.14763497372193 |
| 2025-06-20T10:11:31+08:00 | 21.89902850772416 |
| 2025-06-20T10:27:00+08:00 | 21.889472845994586 |
| 2025-06-20T10:49:13+08:00 | 21.901895206243033 |
| 2025-06-20T11:10:56+08:00 | 22.084567606306738 |
| 2025-06-20T11:12:09+08:00 | 23.82051282051282 |
| 2025-06-20T11:12:44+08:00 | 23.827361044752347 |
| 2025-06-20T12:06:33+08:00 | 23.924669533365186 |
| 2025-06-20T12:07:11+08:00 | 24.912087912087912 |
| 2025-06-20T12:08:02+08:00 | 24.976429367733715 |
| 2025-06-20T12:09:07+08:00 | 24.989329511068643 |
| 2025-06-20T13:38:20+08:00 | 25.104315973881192 |
| 2025-06-20T13:39:08+08:00 | 25.20019111323459 |
| 2025-06-20T13:39:35+08:00 | 25.20353559483994 |
| 2025-06-20T13:40:03+08:00 | 26.095397356266922 |
| 2025-06-20T13:51:23+08:00 | 26.25465838509317 |
| 2025-06-20T14:02:37+08:00 | 26.268832616658703 |
| 2025-06-20T14:03:23+08:00 | 26.632744067526676 |
| 2025-06-20T14:05:53+08:00 | 27.36534480012741 |
| 2025-06-20T14:06:27+08:00 | 27.45946806816372 |
| 2025-06-20T14:07:15+08:00 | 27.548813505335243 |
| 2025-06-20T14:55:01+08:00 | 27.55024685459468 |
| 2025-06-20T14:55:04+08:00 | 27.55502468545947 |
| 2025-06-20T15:19:12+08:00 | 28.048733874820833 |
| 2025-06-20T15:19:40+08:00 | 28.171524128045867 |
| 2025-06-20T16:08:15+08:00 | 28.84169453734671 |
| 2025-06-20T16:08:36+08:00 | 28.843605669692625 |
| 2025-06-20T16:09:17+08:00 | 29.560280299410735 |
| 2025-06-20T16:17:21+08:00 | 29.560758082497212 |
| 2025-06-20T17:17:03+08:00 | 32.36375218983915 |
| 2025-06-20T17:34:10+08:00 | 43.35276317885013 |
| 2025-06-20T17:35:01+08:00 | 43.35515209428253 |
| 2025-06-20T18:19:52+08:00 | 46.22185061315496 |
| 2025-06-20T18:19:58+08:00 | 46.22232839624144 |
| 2025-06-20T18:20:30+08:00 | 47.45437171524128 |
| 2025-06-20T18:21:06+08:00 | 50.54403567447046 |
| 2025-06-20T18:28:54+08:00 | 50.85969103360408 |
| 2025-06-20T18:47:35+08:00 | 50.87880235706323 |
| 2025-06-20T20:50:50+08:00 | 52.328077719382065 |
| 2025-06-20T20:52:01+08:00 | 53.0606784519828 |
| 2025-06-20T20:52:35+08:00 | 53.06163401815576 |
| 2025-06-20T21:10:42+08:00 | 53.87386526516961 |
| 2025-06-20T22:03:34+08:00 | 53.874343048256094 |
| 2025-06-20T22:07:25+08:00 | 54.82990922121357 |
| 2025-06-21T08:20:52+08:00 | 55.53065774804905 |
| 2025-06-21T08:21:00+08:00 | 55.53065774804905 |
| 2025-06-21T08:21:11+08:00 | 56.183627966236664 |
| 2025-06-21T08:21:19+08:00 | 56.183627966236664 |
| 2025-06-21T08:21:25+08:00 | 56.80474597865902 |
| 2025-06-21T08:21:34+08:00 | 57.04363752189839 |
| 2025-06-21T08:21:41+08:00 | 57.13919413919414 |
| 2025-06-21T08:21:48+08:00 | 57.53734671125976 |
| 2025-06-21T08:21:57+08:00 | 57.712533842968625 |
| 2025-06-21T08:22:03+08:00 | 57.808090460264374 |
| 2025-06-21T08:22:10+08:00 | 58.015129797738496 |
| 2025-06-21T08:22:17+08:00 | 58.57254339863036 |
| 2025-06-21T09:30:37+08:00 | 58.843287147634975 |
| 2025-06-21T10:16:29+08:00 | 60.96910336040771 |
| 2025-06-21T10:16:52+08:00 | 61.36725593247333 |
| 2025-06-21T11:06:03+08:00 | 62.65727026596592 |
| 2025-06-21T12:48:23+08:00 | 63.22790253225036 |
| 2025-06-21T12:48:40+08:00 | 63.99235547061634 |
| 2025-06-21T13:46:43+08:00 | 64.66125179168658 |
| 2025-06-21T16:02:24+08:00 | 64.7657270265966 |
| 2025-06-21T16:02:52+08:00 | 65.13202739289696 |
| 2025-06-21T16:03:51+08:00 | 65.8009237139672 |
| 2025-06-21T16:04:10+08:00 | 65.8028348463131 |
| 2025-06-21T16:05:09+08:00 | 66.13011626055105 |
| 2025-06-21T16:05:27+08:00 | 67.05383022774328 |
| 2025-06-21T17:57:07+08:00 | 67.08711578276795 |
| 2025-06-21T17:57:34+08:00 | 67.83564261825131 |
| 2025-06-21T18:25:39+08:00 | 68.31262939958592 |
| 2025-06-21T18:26:09+08:00 | 68.9496735148909 |
| 2025-06-21T20:07:51+08:00 | 69.87338748208313 |
| 2025-06-21T20:08:58+08:00 | 70.430801082975 |
| 2025-06-21T22:29:47+08:00 | 71.32266284440198 |
| 2025-06-21T22:30:15+08:00 | 71.32744067526676 |
| 2025-06-21T22:30:36+08:00 | 71.868928173276 |
| 2025-06-22T09:11:05+08:00 | 72.60152890587673 |
| 2025-06-22T09:11:17+08:00 | 74.62414397197006 |
| 2025-06-22T09:11:22+08:00 | 75.24526198439241 |
| 2025-06-22T09:21:35+08:00 | 75.24621755056538 |
| 2025-06-22T09:21:40+08:00 | 75.25481764612199 |
| 2025-06-22T09:21:45+08:00 | 75.26437330785157 |
| 2025-06-22T09:21:50+08:00 | 75.3428889950629 |
| 2025-06-22T09:21:54+08:00 | 75.3452779104953 |
| 2025-06-22T12:30:39+08:00 | 75.52046504220418 |
| 2025-06-22T12:31:07+08:00 | 76.47603121516165 |
| 2025-06-22T12:32:05+08:00 | 77.57493231406275 |
| 2025-06-22T12:36:49+08:00 | 79.3452779104953 |
| 2025-06-22T12:37:20+08:00 | 79.86574295269948 |
| 2025-06-22T12:38:00+08:00 | 79.87338748208313 |
| 2025-06-22T12:38:10+08:00 | 79.88294314381271 |
| 2025-06-22T17:24:45+08:00 | 80.2651696129957 |
| 2025-06-22T17:24:50+08:00 | 80.99777034559644 |
| 2025-06-22T17:24:56+08:00 | 82.54260232521102 |
| 2025-06-22T17:25:00+08:00 | 83.35483357222488 |
| 2025-06-22T17:25:06+08:00 | 84.45373467112597 |
| 2025-06-22T17:28:26+08:00 | 84.49179805701544 |
| 2025-06-22T17:28:31+08:00 | 84.49466475553432 |
| 2025-06-22T17:28:36+08:00 | 84.51361681796465 |
| 2025-06-22T17:29:58+08:00 | 84.58687689122472 |
| 2025-06-22T17:30:26+08:00 | 84.696607740086 |
| 2025-06-22T17:32:56+08:00 | 84.69804108934544 |
| 2025-06-22T20:20:27+08:00 | 85.1917502787068 |
| 2025-06-22T20:21:00+08:00 | 86.05175983436853 |
| 2025-06-22T20:21:37+08:00 | 87.40547857939163 |
| 2025-06-22T20:27:49+08:00 | 87.4022933588151 |
| 2025-06-22T20:27:58+08:00 | 87.41168975951585 |
| 2025-06-22T20:28:02+08:00 | 87.37362637362638 |
| 2025-06-22T20:29:07+08:00 | 88.00095556617296 |
| 2025-06-23T08:37:41+08:00 | 89.37060041407868 |
| 2025-06-23T08:37:45+08:00 | 91.23395445134575 |
| 2025-06-23T08:37:48+08:00 | 95.26325848064978 |
| 2025-06-23T08:37:51+08:00 | 99.19700589265807 |
| 2025-06-23T08:37:56+08:00 | 100.9648033126294 |
| 2025-06-23T08:42:13+08:00 | 100.99060359929925 |
| 2025-06-23T08:42:17+08:00 | 100.99808886765409 |
| 2025-06-23T08:42:20+08:00 | 101.0418856505813 |
| 2025-06-23T08:43:21+08:00 | 101.0418856505813 |
| 2025-06-23T08:54:52+08:00 | 101.11387163561076 |
| 2025-06-23T09:12:02+08:00 | 101.83054626532888 |
| 2025-06-23T09:12:30+08:00 | 109.93693263258481 |
| 2025-06-23T09:13:22+08:00 | 109.96114030896639 |
| 2025-06-23T09:15:18+08:00 | 132.25768434464086 |
| 2025-06-23T09:43:00+08:00 | 132.24558050645007 |
| 2025-06-23T09:43:02+08:00 | 132.26978818283166 |
| 2025-06-23T09:52:46+08:00 | 137.6661888835802 |
| 2025-06-23T09:53:43+08:00 | 137.6711259754738 |
| 2025-06-23T10:38:32+08:00 | 141.6486701704093 |
| 2025-06-23T10:40:14+08:00 | 141.65201465201466 |
| 2025-06-23T10:40:23+08:00 | 141.66810001592611 |
| 2025-06-23T10:40:35+08:00 | 141.66778149386846 |
| 2025-06-23T10:40:57+08:00 | 142.14556458034718 |
| 2025-06-23T10:41:12+08:00 | 151.70122630992196 |
| 2025-06-23T21:05:11+08:00 | 153.03 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 193.0x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.507, 乙组 α=0.607) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
圣贝拉中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示稳中（≥1手）
机制A(旧)
2025年8月4日前适用的机制A。初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，回补机制触发点为15倍/50倍/100倍，分别回补至30%/40%/50%。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 圣贝拉（02508）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 356 只 IPO 的 10897 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
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