极智嘉－Ｗ 02590中签预测
极智嘉－Ｗ（02590）中签预测
| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  辉立 |
116.0亿 |
| 2 |  富途 |
99.9亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
25.1亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
9.8亿 |
| 5 |  招银 |
6.0亿 |
| 6 |  华盛 |
2.9亿 |
| 7 |  长桥 |
1.9亿 |
| 8 | 贝塔国际 | 1.9亿 |
| 10 |  耀才 |
1.0亿 |
| 11 |  盈立 |
1.0亿 |
| 12 |  信诚 |
2000万 |
| 13 |  TradeGo |
1555万 |
| 14 | 卓锐证券 | 1419万 |
| 15 |  盈宝 |
936万 |
| 16 |  艾德 |
200万 |
| 17 |  Funderstone |
168万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-06-30T10:41:35+08:00 | 0.005767844268204758 |
| 2025-06-30T11:37:39+08:00 | 0.015310233682514102 |
| 2025-06-30T11:38:30+08:00 | 0.07892616311124305 |
| 2025-06-30T11:39:21+08:00 | 0.10284575257644514 |
| 2025-06-30T12:03:34+08:00 | 0.1424572713007337 |
| 2025-06-30T12:04:10+08:00 | 0.2092539972008991 |
| 2025-06-30T12:05:51+08:00 | 0.6333601933924254 |
| 2025-06-30T13:42:11+08:00 | 0.7733152381356292 |
| 2025-06-30T13:42:36+08:00 | 0.8946096102464057 |
| 2025-06-30T14:10:55+08:00 | 0.8946520208660248 |
| 2025-06-30T14:11:42+08:00 | 1.4649900335043895 |
| 2025-06-30T14:12:31+08:00 | 1.5243649009712033 |
| 2025-06-30T14:15:02+08:00 | 1.5696594427244581 |
| 2025-06-30T15:11:42+08:00 | 1.590186182620128 |
| 2025-06-30T15:12:56+08:00 | 1.8446499003350438 |
| 2025-06-30T16:23:05+08:00 | 1.8726409092836847 |
| 2025-06-30T16:24:38+08:00 | 2.0338012638364646 |
| 2025-06-30T16:25:15+08:00 | 2.0658212816489248 |
| 2025-06-30T16:25:57+08:00 | 2.313711353322872 |
| 2025-06-30T17:28:20+08:00 | 2.328130963993384 |
| 2025-06-30T17:28:53+08:00 | 2.4171932651936046 |
| 2025-06-30T17:31:07+08:00 | 2.6122821154417064 |
| 2025-06-30T18:11:59+08:00 | 2.7923576063446287 |
| 2025-06-30T18:12:04+08:00 | 2.804868739132279 |
| 2025-06-30T18:13:41+08:00 | 2.809109801094194 |
| 2025-06-30T18:21:22+08:00 | 2.8697569871495823 |
| 2025-06-30T18:22:38+08:00 | 2.8845582933966667 |
| 2025-06-30T20:29:42+08:00 | 2.9031765554094746 |
| 2025-06-30T20:31:02+08:00 | 2.958310360914373 |
| 2025-06-30T20:31:54+08:00 | 2.966410789261631 |
| 2025-06-30T20:32:50+08:00 | 3.0342677806522755 |
| 2025-06-30T21:40:22+08:00 | 3.0324441240086517 |
| 2025-06-30T21:41:07+08:00 | 3.1215064252088722 |
| 2025-06-30T22:17:44+08:00 | 3.1351626447262393 |
| 2025-06-30T22:18:35+08:00 | 3.139403706688155 |
| 2025-07-01T08:31:45+08:00 | 3.3132872471266803 |
| 2025-07-01T08:31:49+08:00 | 3.4065906102888164 |
| 2025-07-01T08:31:58+08:00 | 3.461724415793715 |
| 2025-07-01T08:32:01+08:00 | 3.639849018194156 |
| 2025-07-01T08:36:10+08:00 | 3.6506213155774208 |
| 2025-07-01T08:36:13+08:00 | 3.6428177615674966 |
| 2025-07-01T08:36:16+08:00 | 3.66817931209975 |
| 2025-07-01T08:38:10+08:00 | 3.66817931209975 |
| 2025-07-01T09:08:55+08:00 | 3.9014377200050894 |
| 2025-07-01T09:10:06+08:00 | 3.954493405148649 |
| 2025-07-01T09:24:50+08:00 | 3.984180838882056 |
| 2025-07-01T10:04:30+08:00 | 4.358200093303363 |
| 2025-07-01T10:05:11+08:00 | 4.377030408414267 |
| 2025-07-01T10:06:04+08:00 | 4.593324568471945 |
| 2025-07-01T11:06:12+08:00 | 4.598541074685101 |
| 2025-07-01T11:06:54+08:00 | 4.73425505746639 |
| 2025-07-01T12:09:40+08:00 | 4.383095127019806 |
| 2025-07-01T12:10:19+08:00 | 4.3922134102379236 |
| 2025-07-01T12:11:21+08:00 | 4.40493659612367 |
| 2025-07-01T13:47:00+08:00 | 4.410322744815302 |
| 2025-07-01T13:47:49+08:00 | 4.427286992662963 |
| 2025-07-01T13:48:33+08:00 | 4.511896178803172 |
| 2025-07-01T14:19:24+08:00 | 4.59760804105348 |
| 2025-07-01T14:19:51+08:00 | 4.595529920692141 |
| 2025-07-01T14:20:23+08:00 | 4.735484965435345 |
| 2025-07-01T15:04:29+08:00 | 4.742864413249078 |
| 2025-07-01T15:08:58+08:00 | 4.7937571567920605 |
| 2025-07-01T16:07:50+08:00 | 4.930616226303067 |
| 2025-07-01T16:08:35+08:00 | 4.985750031807965 |
| 2025-07-01T16:09:02+08:00 | 5.010729886763646 |
| 2025-07-01T17:18:24+08:00 | 5.011578099156028 |
| 2025-07-01T17:19:10+08:00 | 5.058229780737096 |
| 2025-07-01T18:47:28+08:00 | 5.964799185716103 |
| 2025-07-01T18:47:34+08:00 | 5.970185334407736 |
| 2025-07-01T18:48:35+08:00 | 6.258577547817974 |
| 2025-07-01T18:48:46+08:00 | 6.300988167437127 |
| 2025-07-01T19:36:59+08:00 | 6.301412273633318 |
| 2025-07-01T19:37:49+08:00 | 6.526188557614827 |
| 2025-07-01T19:38:36+08:00 | 6.6537172908096185 |
| 2025-07-01T20:56:26+08:00 | 6.652317740362187 |
| 2025-07-01T20:56:49+08:00 | 6.8770940243436955 |
| 2025-07-01T21:38:32+08:00 | 6.86386191102252 |
| 2025-07-01T21:39:28+08:00 | 6.931718902413165 |
| 2025-07-01T22:03:35+08:00 | 6.9078841341872 |
| 2025-07-01T22:07:06+08:00 | 7.1072140463972175 |
| 2025-07-02T08:41:12+08:00 | 7.112642605708469 |
| 2025-07-02T08:41:15+08:00 | 7.112430552610373 |
| 2025-07-02T08:41:28+08:00 | 7.132363543831375 |
| 2025-07-02T08:41:32+08:00 | 7.13062470842699 |
| 2025-07-02T08:43:14+08:00 | 7.206963823741465 |
| 2025-07-02T08:43:18+08:00 | 7.29178506297977 |
| 2025-07-02T08:43:22+08:00 | 7.5165613469612795 |
| 2025-07-02T08:46:19+08:00 | 7.5165613469612795 |
| 2025-07-02T09:07:54+08:00 | 7.724373383095127 |
| 2025-07-02T09:08:16+08:00 | 7.726451503456466 |
| 2025-07-02T09:38:41+08:00 | 7.930785868781543 |
| 2025-07-02T10:10:10+08:00 | 7.937868442257941 |
| 2025-07-02T10:11:01+08:00 | 10.175749607701768 |
| 2025-07-02T10:12:21+08:00 | 10.366597395987956 |
| 2025-07-02T11:10:56+08:00 | 10.654989609398193 |
| 2025-07-02T11:11:55+08:00 | 10.664828873149837 |
| 2025-07-02T12:12:06+08:00 | 10.881123033207516 |
| 2025-07-02T12:12:40+08:00 | 10.894270325289453 |
| 2025-07-02T12:13:19+08:00 | 10.993044658382459 |
| 2025-07-02T13:43:55+08:00 | 10.996267865473515 |
| 2025-07-02T13:45:53+08:00 | 11.310106450655244 |
| 2025-07-02T13:46:19+08:00 | 11.64515034564655 |
| 2025-07-02T13:47:59+08:00 | 11.899614063361465 |
| 2025-07-02T14:03:42+08:00 | 12.084015437465542 |
| 2025-07-02T14:05:05+08:00 | 12.08706900207812 |
| 2025-07-02T14:05:44+08:00 | 12.285635523134992 |
| 2025-07-02T14:06:45+08:00 | 12.506170745154586 |
| 2025-07-02T15:07:03+08:00 | 12.525043470885109 |
| 2025-07-02T15:07:52+08:00 | 13.033970906314941 |
| 2025-07-02T16:28:09+08:00 | 12.989354934475593 |
| 2025-07-02T16:28:47+08:00 | 13.05704228338776 |
| 2025-07-02T16:31:27+08:00 | 13.239407947750117 |
| 2025-07-02T17:26:45+08:00 | 13.523559099198438 |
| 2025-07-02T17:27:20+08:00 | 13.528690784172356 |
| 2025-07-02T17:34:23+08:00 | 17.76975274608762 |
| 2025-07-02T18:02:16+08:00 | 18.51863946732262 |
| 2025-07-02T18:06:53+08:00 | 18.703761821960217 |
| 2025-07-02T18:06:59+08:00 | 18.720471606090165 |
| 2025-07-02T18:08:10+08:00 | 19.089443996776794 |
| 2025-07-02T18:23:54+08:00 | 19.469867254760594 |
| 2025-07-02T20:00:37+08:00 | 19.47694982823699 |
| 2025-07-02T20:01:50+08:00 | 20.138555494295773 |
| 2025-07-02T20:17:52+08:00 | 20.164341151024217 |
| 2025-07-02T20:18:38+08:00 | 20.38487637304381 |
| 2025-07-02T22:06:29+08:00 | 20.68175071037788 |
| 2025-07-02T22:07:13+08:00 | 20.700411383010305 |
| 2025-07-02T22:08:05+08:00 | 21.200856694516307 |
| 2025-07-03T09:37:49+08:00 | 21.212816489248908 |
| 2025-07-03T09:38:47+08:00 | 21.692056490945333 |
| 2025-07-03T09:43:17+08:00 | 22.692947113957334 |
| 2025-07-03T09:43:29+08:00 | 22.73679969464354 |
| 2025-07-03T09:44:08+08:00 | 22.868272615462914 |
| 2025-07-03T09:44:22+08:00 | 22.87993553585818 |
| 2025-07-03T09:45:09+08:00 | 22.998685270791807 |
| 2025-07-03T09:46:43+08:00 | 23.00954238941431 |
| 2025-07-03T09:47:29+08:00 | 23.19614911573858 |
| 2025-07-03T09:48:17+08:00 | 23.40480936426481 |
| 2025-07-03T10:05:08+08:00 | 24.76928622927181 |
| 2025-07-03T10:05:37+08:00 | 24.778022816913357 |
| 2025-07-03T10:06:19+08:00 | 25.25726281860978 |
| 2025-07-03T10:49:13+08:00 | 25.25726281860978 |
| 2025-07-03T11:09:50+08:00 | 25.300521650621317 |
| 2025-07-03T11:10:59+08:00 | 25.890029263327538 |
| 2025-07-03T12:15:40+08:00 | 26.322617583442895 |
| 2025-07-03T12:16:12+08:00 | 26.34734297468086 |
| 2025-07-03T12:17:02+08:00 | 27.00801560710802 |
| 2025-07-03T13:52:43+08:00 | 27.220068705203783 |
| 2025-07-03T13:53:06+08:00 | 33.15755545188515 |
| 2025-07-03T13:53:45+08:00 | 33.18669154756351 |
| 2025-07-03T13:54:23+08:00 | 33.271512786801814 |
| 2025-07-03T14:00:43+08:00 | 33.46439628482972 |
| 2025-07-03T14:03:23+08:00 | 33.7867594045549 |
| 2025-07-03T14:05:25+08:00 | 33.80957631791001 |
| 2025-07-03T14:05:53+08:00 | 34.13490818100853 |
| 2025-07-03T14:06:37+08:00 | 35.004325883201155 |
| 2025-07-03T15:08:05+08:00 | 35.032656177106745 |
| 2025-07-03T15:09:06+08:00 | 36.262564146062175 |
| 2025-07-03T15:10:09+08:00 | 38.80296026124942 |
| 2025-07-03T16:09:49+08:00 | 39.39666652529793 |
| 2025-07-03T16:10:28+08:00 | 40.92768989354934 |
| 2025-07-03T17:06:33+08:00 | 42.178803172314346 |
| 2025-07-03T17:20:19+08:00 | 47.69218372280419 |
| 2025-07-03T17:21:02+08:00 | 48.48526230968235 |
| 2025-07-03T18:23:05+08:00 | 48.86695788625472 |
| 2025-07-03T18:23:50+08:00 | 49.66724627846813 |
| 2025-07-03T18:24:46+08:00 | 50.68086008736588 |
| 2025-07-03T18:26:39+08:00 | 51.070444039187414 |
| 2025-07-03T20:13:28+08:00 | 53.09767165698291 |
| 2025-07-03T20:14:02+08:00 | 54.08583909410917 |
| 2025-07-03T21:41:24+08:00 | 55.17579201832139 |
| 2025-07-03T22:08:22+08:00 | 56.532931846134275 |
| 2025-07-04T08:36:59+08:00 | 58.615293269434666 |
| 2025-07-04T08:37:03+08:00 | 62.44497222104415 |
| 2025-07-04T08:37:06+08:00 | 65.32465329318461 |
| 2025-07-04T08:37:10+08:00 | 67.39853259256118 |
| 2025-07-04T08:37:13+08:00 | 70.21883879723482 |
| 2025-07-04T08:40:05+08:00 | 70.21883879723482 |
| 2025-07-04T09:03:51+08:00 | 86.33487425251283 |
| 2025-07-04T09:06:00+08:00 | 91.25026506637262 |
| 2025-07-04T09:44:45+08:00 | 91.3562916154205 |
| 2025-07-04T10:08:04+08:00 | 93.2610797743755 |
| 2025-07-04T10:10:28+08:00 | 95.18164468382884 |
| 2025-07-04T11:33:17+08:00 | 112.14589253148989 |
| 2025-07-04T18:48:03+08:00 | 112.83 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 133.62x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.571, 乙组 α=0.671) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
极智嘉－Ｗ中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示稳中（≥1手）
机制A(旧)
2025年8月4日前适用的机制A。初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，回补机制触发点为15倍/50倍/100倍，分别回补至30%/40%/50%。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 极智嘉－Ｗ（02590）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 356 只 IPO 的 10897 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
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