诺比侃 02635
新股中签预测
5.1007.69%( -0.425 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
39.9亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
9.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
6.2亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
4.2亿 |
| 5 | 卓锐证券 | 4164万 |
| 6 |  信诚 |
3000万 |
| 7 |  华盛 |
2450万 |
| 8 |  盈立 |
1910万 |
| 9 |  长桥 |
1482万 |
| 11 |  TradeGo |
944万 |
| 12 |  盈宝 |
237万 |
| 13 |  艾德 |
71万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-15T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-12-15T10:17:30+08:00 | 0.0014947683109118087 |
| 2025-12-15T10:17:37+08:00 | 0.03587443946188341 |
| 2025-12-15T10:19:09+08:00 | 0.08570004982561036 |
| 2025-12-15T11:15:57+08:00 | 0.08769307424015944 |
| 2025-12-15T11:16:39+08:00 | 0.09566517189835576 |
| 2025-12-15T11:17:30+08:00 | 0.11733931240657698 |
| 2025-12-15T11:18:59+08:00 | 0.16716492277030393 |
| 2025-12-15T12:05:29+08:00 | 0.1684105630293971 |
| 2025-12-15T12:06:11+08:00 | 0.19257598405580467 |
| 2025-12-15T12:07:10+08:00 | 0.26980568011958145 |
| 2025-12-15T12:08:15+08:00 | 0.4192825112107623 |
| 2025-12-15T12:08:42+08:00 | 0.4441953163926258 |
| 2025-12-15T13:45:00+08:00 | 0.46811160936721474 |
| 2025-12-15T13:46:20+08:00 | 0.47110114598903835 |
| 2025-12-15T13:47:52+08:00 | 0.9942700548081714 |
| 2025-12-15T13:50:59+08:00 | 0.9980069755854509 |
| 2025-12-15T13:51:53+08:00 | 1.0104633781763828 |
| 2025-12-15T14:02:02+08:00 | 1.0112107623318385 |
| 2025-12-15T14:05:05+08:00 | 1.0194319880418534 |
| 2025-12-15T14:07:44+08:00 | 1.0373692077727952 |
| 2025-12-15T14:08:46+08:00 | 1.2117588440458396 |
| 2025-12-15T14:09:33+08:00 | 1.2122571001494769 |
| 2025-12-15T15:10:10+08:00 | 1.2149975087194818 |
| 2025-12-15T15:11:55+08:00 | 1.2214748380667664 |
| 2025-12-15T15:13:04+08:00 | 1.3211260587942202 |
| 2025-12-15T15:33:02+08:00 | 1.3460388639760836 |
| 2025-12-15T16:08:16+08:00 | 1.3480318883906328 |
| 2025-12-15T16:09:30+08:00 | 1.4225211758844045 |
| 2025-12-15T16:10:37+08:00 | 1.6467364225211758 |
| 2025-12-15T17:11:37+08:00 | 1.647982062780269 |
| 2025-12-15T17:12:21+08:00 | 1.7473841554559044 |
| 2025-12-15T17:13:28+08:00 | 1.747633283507723 |
| 2025-12-15T17:14:46+08:00 | 2.37045341305431 |
| 2025-12-15T17:33:56+08:00 | 3.366965620328849 |
| 2025-12-15T18:06:41+08:00 | 3.3687095166915793 |
| 2025-12-15T18:07:09+08:00 | 3.393622321873443 |
| 2025-12-15T18:07:54+08:00 | 4.018933731938216 |
| 2025-12-15T18:09:56+08:00 | 4.666666666666667 |
| 2025-12-15T18:14:06+08:00 | 4.787742899850524 |
| 2025-12-15T20:12:57+08:00 | 4.7924763328350775 |
| 2025-12-15T20:14:36+08:00 | 4.806925759840558 |
| 2025-12-15T20:15:28+08:00 | 4.808669656203288 |
| 2025-12-15T20:15:37+08:00 | 5.344544095665172 |
| 2025-12-15T20:17:04+08:00 | 5.4691081215744894 |
| 2025-12-15T20:17:40+08:00 | 4.348031888390633 |
| 2025-12-15T22:13:37+08:00 | 4.351519681116094 |
| 2025-12-15T22:14:49+08:00 | 4.402341803687095 |
| 2025-12-15T22:16:09+08:00 | 4.452167414050822 |
| 2025-12-15T22:16:47+08:00 | 5.473592426507225 |
| 2025-12-16T08:55:19+08:00 | 5.497010463378176 |
| 2025-12-16T08:56:20+08:00 | 5.497010463378176 |
| 2025-12-16T08:57:31+08:00 | 5.639511709018436 |
| 2025-12-16T08:58:44+08:00 | 6.087942202291978 |
| 2025-12-16T09:00:42+08:00 | 6.118335824613852 |
| 2025-12-16T09:03:09+08:00 | 6.145739910313901 |
| 2025-12-16T09:05:52+08:00 | 6.220478325859491 |
| 2025-12-16T09:54:37+08:00 | 6.270303936223219 |
| 2025-12-16T10:05:24+08:00 | 6.407075236671649 |
| 2025-12-16T10:06:15+08:00 | 6.41429995017439 |
| 2025-12-16T10:06:25+08:00 | 6.4374688589935225 |
| 2025-12-16T10:07:28+08:00 | 6.661684105630294 |
| 2025-12-16T11:08:05+08:00 | 6.679621325361236 |
| 2025-12-16T11:10:24+08:00 | 6.684603886397609 |
| 2025-12-16T11:11:02+08:00 | 6.659691081215745 |
| 2025-12-16T12:05:52+08:00 | 6.662182361733931 |
| 2025-12-16T12:06:55+08:00 | 6.687842551071251 |
| 2025-12-16T12:07:33+08:00 | 6.682859990034878 |
| 2025-12-16T12:08:34+08:00 | 6.857249626307922 |
| 2025-12-16T13:45:25+08:00 | 6.874439461883408 |
| 2025-12-16T13:46:34+08:00 | 6.879422022919781 |
| 2025-12-16T13:47:09+08:00 | 6.9225211758844045 |
| 2025-12-16T13:47:59+08:00 | 7.071998006975585 |
| 2025-12-16T14:01:15+08:00 | 7.101395117090185 |
| 2025-12-16T14:03:27+08:00 | 7.568759342301943 |
| 2025-12-16T14:08:36+08:00 | 7.570752366716492 |
| 2025-12-16T14:08:57+08:00 | 7.720229197807673 |
| 2025-12-16T15:09:52+08:00 | 7.721225710014948 |
| 2025-12-16T15:10:15+08:00 | 7.723218734429497 |
| 2025-12-16T15:11:04+08:00 | 7.74813153961136 |
| 2025-12-16T15:48:28+08:00 | 7.972346786248131 |
| 2025-12-16T16:02:37+08:00 | 7.969855505729945 |
| 2025-12-16T16:03:21+08:00 | 7.970353761833582 |
| 2025-12-16T16:03:58+08:00 | 7.972346786248131 |
| 2025-12-16T16:07:24+08:00 | 7.9225211758844045 |
| 2025-12-16T17:01:27+08:00 | 7.97633283507723 |
| 2025-12-16T17:03:52+08:00 | 7.976831091180867 |
| 2025-12-16T17:04:18+08:00 | 8.116093672147484 |
| 2025-12-16T17:05:43+08:00 | 8.963129048330842 |
| 2025-12-16T17:30:50+08:00 | 10.208769307424015 |
| 2025-12-16T18:11:54+08:00 | 10.205032386646737 |
| 2025-12-16T18:12:14+08:00 | 10.220229197807674 |
| 2025-12-16T18:13:19+08:00 | 10.444444444444445 |
| 2025-12-16T18:16:56+08:00 | 10.455156950672645 |
| 2025-12-16T19:10:43+08:00 | 10.455406078724465 |
| 2025-12-16T19:10:50+08:00 | 10.458146487294469 |
| 2025-12-16T19:11:01+08:00 | 10.461883408071749 |
| 2025-12-16T19:12:01+08:00 | 10.312406576980568 |
| 2025-12-16T21:31:00+08:00 | 10.33931240657698 |
| 2025-12-16T21:31:10+08:00 | 10.346537120079722 |
| 2025-12-16T21:32:11+08:00 | 10.471101145989039 |
| 2025-12-16T22:17:01+08:00 | 10.51270553064275 |
| 2025-12-17T08:37:47+08:00 | 10.49451918285999 |
| 2025-12-17T08:37:51+08:00 | 10.562780269058296 |
| 2025-12-17T08:37:57+08:00 | 10.936472346786248 |
| 2025-12-17T08:38:03+08:00 | 10.937468858993523 |
| 2025-12-17T08:38:07+08:00 | 10.946188340807176 |
| 2025-12-17T08:38:10+08:00 | 10.953413054309916 |
| 2025-12-17T08:38:18+08:00 | 10.953413054309916 |
| 2025-12-17T09:08:10+08:00 | 10.980817140009965 |
| 2025-12-17T09:08:50+08:00 | 11.03637269556552 |
| 2025-12-17T09:09:40+08:00 | 11.039362232187344 |
| 2025-12-17T09:10:16+08:00 | 11.313403089187842 |
| 2025-12-17T09:18:09+08:00 | 11.46910812157449 |
| 2025-12-17T10:00:49+08:00 | 11.50373692077728 |
| 2025-12-17T10:03:26+08:00 | 11.528898854010961 |
| 2025-12-17T10:03:59+08:00 | 11.154210264075735 |
| 2025-12-17T10:05:20+08:00 | 11.32859990034878 |
| 2025-12-17T11:02:36+08:00 | 11.343547583457898 |
| 2025-12-17T11:03:49+08:00 | 10.866965620328848 |
| 2025-12-17T11:04:00+08:00 | 10.917040358744394 |
| 2025-12-17T11:05:41+08:00 | 10.991778774289985 |
| 2025-12-17T12:03:01+08:00 | 11.00722471350274 |
| 2025-12-17T12:03:18+08:00 | 11.012207274539113 |
| 2025-12-17T12:03:37+08:00 | 11.028649725959143 |
| 2025-12-17T12:08:03+08:00 | 11.103388141504734 |
| 2025-12-17T13:48:10+08:00 | 11.103637269556552 |
| 2025-12-17T13:48:45+08:00 | 11.125560538116591 |
| 2025-12-17T13:49:08+08:00 | 11.23368211260588 |
| 2025-12-17T14:00:56+08:00 | 11.23916292974589 |
| 2025-12-17T14:01:49+08:00 | 11.314897857498755 |
| 2025-12-17T14:03:57+08:00 | 11.331340308918785 |
| 2025-12-17T14:04:13+08:00 | 11.378176382660687 |
| 2025-12-17T14:05:24+08:00 | 12.773293472845042 |
| 2025-12-17T15:05:08+08:00 | 12.777030393622322 |
| 2025-12-17T15:05:30+08:00 | 12.935724962630792 |
| 2025-12-17T15:05:49+08:00 | 13.78276033881415 |
| 2025-12-17T15:06:54+08:00 | 13.79571499750872 |
| 2025-12-17T15:37:17+08:00 | 14.293971101145988 |
| 2025-12-17T16:04:46+08:00 | 14.248380667663179 |
| 2025-12-17T16:06:37+08:00 | 18.060039860488292 |
| 2025-12-17T17:08:41+08:00 | 19.626307922272048 |
| 2025-12-17T17:09:11+08:00 | 30.114598903836573 |
| 2025-12-17T17:33:06+08:00 | 32.356751370204286 |
| 2025-12-17T18:06:01+08:00 | 34.1751370204285 |
| 2025-12-17T18:06:31+08:00 | 39.53139013452915 |
| 2025-12-17T18:08:23+08:00 | 43.45092177379173 |
| 2025-12-17T20:22:48+08:00 | 44.29347284504235 |
| 2025-12-17T20:23:20+08:00 | 45.83806676631789 |
| 2025-12-17T20:24:23+08:00 | 45.94369706028899 |
| 2025-12-17T20:24:43+08:00 | 49.4813153961136 |
| 2025-12-17T22:16:17+08:00 | 51.62929745889387 |
| 2025-12-17T22:16:55+08:00 | 57.28450423517688 |
| 2025-12-17T22:18:02+08:00 | 57.92476332835077 |
| 2025-12-17T22:18:24+08:00 | 63.530144494270054 |
| 2025-12-18T08:18:23+08:00 | 65.15047334329846 |
| 2025-12-18T08:19:12+08:00 | 65.15047334329846 |
| 2025-12-18T08:19:34+08:00 | 69.40184354758345 |
| 2025-12-18T08:19:43+08:00 | 103.98081714000996 |
| 2025-12-18T09:09:20+08:00 | 104.52067762830094 |
| 2025-12-18T09:09:28+08:00 | 125.32286995515695 |
| 2025-12-18T09:09:49+08:00 | 125.82112605879422 |
| 2025-12-18T10:23:21+08:00 | 126.85849526656702 |
| 2025-12-18T10:23:26+08:00 | 144.79571499750872 |
| 2025-12-18T10:23:51+08:00 | 145.39013452914799 |
| 2025-12-18T14:10:48+08:00 | 151.29 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 188.74x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.505, 乙组 α=0.605) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
诺比侃中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 诺比侃（02635）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
