果下科技 02655
新股中签预测
10.2600.49%( +0.050 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
444.5亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
292.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
94.6亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
39.5亿 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
16.5亿 |
| 6 | 卓锐证券 | 5.8亿 |
| 8 |  信诚 |
5.0亿 |
| 9 |  长桥 |
3.8亿 |
| 10 |  盈立 |
3.3亿 |
| 11 |  TradeGo |
3.1亿 |
| 12 |  盈宝 |
9000万 |
| 13 |  Funderstone |
6279万 |
| 14 |  艾德 |
4005万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-08T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-12-08T10:19:37+08:00 | 0.008671369782480894 |
| 2025-12-08T10:20:04+08:00 | 0.2588183421516755 |
| 2025-12-08T10:20:13+08:00 | 0.32598471487360375 |
| 2025-12-08T10:20:19+08:00 | 0.5317460317460317 |
| 2025-12-08T10:20:22+08:00 | 0.6052322163433275 |
| 2025-12-08T11:11:01+08:00 | 0.6527042915931804 |
| 2025-12-08T11:11:04+08:00 | 0.9343033509700176 |
| 2025-12-08T11:11:07+08:00 | 1.010435038212816 |
| 2025-12-08T11:11:10+08:00 | 2.127425044091711 |
| 2025-12-08T12:03:22+08:00 | 2.2009112286890065 |
| 2025-12-08T12:03:51+08:00 | 2.2088477366255144 |
| 2025-12-08T12:03:56+08:00 | 2.6328630217519104 |
| 2025-12-08T12:03:59+08:00 | 3.2494121105232217 |
| 2025-12-08T13:48:54+08:00 | 4.704438565549677 |
| 2025-12-08T13:48:58+08:00 | 4.741769547325103 |
| 2025-12-08T13:49:04+08:00 | 4.523221634332746 |
| 2025-12-08T13:49:07+08:00 | 4.659905937683716 |
| 2025-12-08T13:49:10+08:00 | 4.76278659611993 |
| 2025-12-08T14:01:03+08:00 | 4.750293944738389 |
| 2025-12-08T14:01:34+08:00 | 6.412992357436802 |
| 2025-12-08T15:22:15+08:00 | 6.4641387419165195 |
| 2025-12-08T15:22:17+08:00 | 6.513521457965902 |
| 2025-12-08T15:22:34+08:00 | 6.602145796590241 |
| 2025-12-08T15:22:41+08:00 | 6.701058201058201 |
| 2025-12-08T15:23:03+08:00 | 7.053791887125221 |
| 2025-12-08T15:23:05+08:00 | 7.23015873015873 |
| 2025-12-08T15:23:13+08:00 | 7.296590241034686 |
| 2025-12-08T16:12:01+08:00 | 7.364491475602587 |
| 2025-12-08T16:12:04+08:00 | 7.500440917107584 |
| 2025-12-08T16:12:06+08:00 | 7.571134626690182 |
| 2025-12-08T16:12:09+08:00 | 8.688124632569076 |
| 2025-12-08T16:13:00+08:00 | 8.98206937095826 |
| 2025-12-08T17:29:04+08:00 | 9.129041740152852 |
| 2025-12-08T17:29:18+08:00 | 9.175338036449148 |
| 2025-12-08T17:29:21+08:00 | 13.46222810111699 |
| 2025-12-08T17:29:24+08:00 | 14.065696649029983 |
| 2025-12-08T17:29:27+08:00 | 18.88639035861258 |
| 2025-12-08T18:07:25+08:00 | 19.76822457378013 |
| 2025-12-08T18:07:30+08:00 | 19.77278071722516 |
| 2025-12-08T18:07:35+08:00 | 20.234567901234566 |
| 2025-12-08T18:07:40+08:00 | 21.11463844797178 |
| 2025-12-08T18:07:45+08:00 | 26.185185185185187 |
| 2025-12-08T18:08:33+08:00 | 27.27087007642563 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:08+08:00 | 27.594209288653733 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:13+08:00 | 27.598471487360378 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:19+08:00 | 28.03938859494415 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:24+08:00 | 28.52910052910053 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:29+08:00 | 28.82995296884186 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:34+08:00 | 30.31437389770723 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:41+08:00 | 30.248236331569665 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:46+08:00 | 30.762345679012345 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:51+08:00 | 33.59891240446796 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:57+08:00 | 33.613462669018226 |
| 2025-12-08T21:27:02+08:00 | 34.428718400940625 |
| 2025-12-08T21:27:11+08:00 | 36.133597883597886 |
| 2025-12-08T22:04:11+08:00 | 37.24294532627866 |
| 2025-12-08T22:04:15+08:00 | 37.380805408583186 |
| 2025-12-09T08:36:42+08:00 | 37.32010582010582 |
| 2025-12-09T08:36:45+08:00 | 39.41813639035861 |
| 2025-12-09T08:38:02+08:00 | 38.96649029982363 |
| 2025-12-09T08:38:05+08:00 | 38.85670194003527 |
| 2025-12-09T08:38:26+08:00 | 40.532186948853614 |
| 2025-12-09T08:38:30+08:00 | 46.719723691945916 |
| 2025-12-09T08:39:04+08:00 | 46.719723691945916 |
| 2025-12-09T09:03:07+08:00 | 47.16710758377425 |
| 2025-12-09T09:03:24+08:00 | 47.14564961787184 |
| 2025-12-09T09:03:27+08:00 | 47.2473544973545 |
| 2025-12-09T09:24:08+08:00 | 49.055114638447975 |
| 2025-12-09T09:44:44+08:00 | 49.789976484420926 |
| 2025-12-09T10:08:16+08:00 | 49.828630217519105 |
| 2025-12-09T10:08:36+08:00 | 50.509406231628454 |
| 2025-12-09T10:08:46+08:00 | 54.13962375073486 |
| 2025-12-09T10:08:56+08:00 | 54.2120811287478 |
| 2025-12-09T10:09:41+08:00 | 56.834362139917694 |
| 2025-12-09T11:00:36+08:00 | 57.40432098765432 |
| 2025-12-09T11:05:43+08:00 | 57.62477954144621 |
| 2025-12-09T11:05:53+08:00 | 57.931804820693706 |
| 2025-12-09T11:06:07+08:00 | 60.753674309229865 |
| 2025-12-09T12:06:17+08:00 | 60.9591416813639 |
| 2025-12-09T12:06:28+08:00 | 61.06878306878307 |
| 2025-12-09T12:06:30+08:00 | 61.50396825396825 |
| 2025-12-09T12:06:39+08:00 | 64.38462669018224 |
| 2025-12-09T13:44:43+08:00 | 64.51234567901234 |
| 2025-12-09T13:44:54+08:00 | 64.43048206937095 |
| 2025-12-09T13:45:07+08:00 | 65.5327748383304 |
| 2025-12-09T13:45:32+08:00 | 65.58054085831864 |
| 2025-12-09T14:00:35+08:00 | 65.62257495590829 |
| 2025-12-09T14:01:04+08:00 | 66.34847148736037 |
| 2025-12-09T14:06:17+08:00 | 66.40079365079364 |
| 2025-12-09T14:06:23+08:00 | 66.48030570252793 |
| 2025-12-09T14:06:34+08:00 | 69.41975308641975 |
| 2025-12-09T15:01:14+08:00 | 69.4620811287478 |
| 2025-12-09T15:04:00+08:00 | 69.3775720164609 |
| 2025-12-09T15:04:08+08:00 | 69.84141681363903 |
| 2025-12-09T15:06:44+08:00 | 73.0160199882422 |
| 2025-12-09T16:14:10+08:00 | 73.12360376249265 |
| 2025-12-09T16:14:33+08:00 | 74.53982951205174 |
| 2025-12-09T16:14:48+08:00 | 78.62566137566138 |
| 2025-12-09T16:14:59+08:00 | 78.72751322751323 |
| 2025-12-09T16:41:54+08:00 | 79.90329218106996 |
| 2025-12-09T17:02:07+08:00 | 79.99559082892416 |
| 2025-12-09T17:03:24+08:00 | 82.06966490299824 |
| 2025-12-09T17:03:36+08:00 | 82.34611992945327 |
| 2025-12-09T17:36:40+08:00 | 89.98868312757202 |
| 2025-12-09T17:37:24+08:00 | 102.77527924750147 |
| 2025-12-09T18:06:17+08:00 | 103.8040858318636 |
| 2025-12-09T18:06:39+08:00 | 103.93547912992358 |
| 2025-12-09T18:07:00+08:00 | 105.18841857730746 |
| 2025-12-09T18:07:05+08:00 | 105.78880070546737 |
| 2025-12-09T18:07:21+08:00 | 113.4754556143445 |
| 2025-12-09T18:08:27+08:00 | 115.47707231040565 |
| 2025-12-09T21:48:39+08:00 | 115.6524103468548 |
| 2025-12-09T21:48:49+08:00 | 115.78057025279247 |
| 2025-12-09T21:48:54+08:00 | 116.25338036449148 |
| 2025-12-09T21:49:09+08:00 | 121.47089947089947 |
| 2025-12-09T21:49:19+08:00 | 121.53689006466784 |
| 2025-12-09T21:49:23+08:00 | 122.06452087007642 |
| 2025-12-09T21:49:38+08:00 | 124.16622574955909 |
| 2025-12-09T21:50:11+08:00 | 124.18283362727807 |
| 2025-12-09T21:50:16+08:00 | 125.17842445620224 |
| 2025-12-09T21:50:31+08:00 | 127.22134038800705 |
| 2025-12-09T22:05:42+08:00 | 128.79570840681953 |
| 2025-12-09T22:05:47+08:00 | 128.87566137566137 |
| 2025-12-09T22:06:11+08:00 | 132.47648442092887 |
| 2025-12-10T08:36:52+08:00 | 132.5163139329806 |
| 2025-12-10T08:36:55+08:00 | 132.80776014109347 |
| 2025-12-10T08:38:03+08:00 | 133.50146972369194 |
| 2025-12-10T08:38:06+08:00 | 135.06084656084656 |
| 2025-12-10T08:39:06+08:00 | 150.77219282774837 |
| 2025-12-10T08:39:24+08:00 | 150.77219282774837 |
| 2025-12-10T09:05:25+08:00 | 150.83274544385657 |
| 2025-12-10T09:05:46+08:00 | 151.0299823633157 |
| 2025-12-10T09:05:56+08:00 | 153.35214579659024 |
| 2025-12-10T09:06:12+08:00 | 153.413139329806 |
| 2025-12-10T09:07:09+08:00 | 154.46693121693121 |
| 2025-12-10T09:50:15+08:00 | 155.8337742504409 |
| 2025-12-10T10:06:01+08:00 | 156.96061140505586 |
| 2025-12-10T10:06:30+08:00 | 157.18356848912404 |
| 2025-12-10T10:06:44+08:00 | 157.9134332745444 |
| 2025-12-10T10:07:04+08:00 | 173.13977072310405 |
| 2025-12-10T11:04:49+08:00 | 173.43121693121694 |
| 2025-12-10T11:04:58+08:00 | 173.54188712522046 |
| 2025-12-10T11:05:10+08:00 | 177.22721928277483 |
| 2025-12-10T11:05:26+08:00 | 196.02498530276307 |
| 2025-12-10T11:38:57+08:00 | 197.6416813639036 |
| 2025-12-10T12:03:38+08:00 | 197.7743974132863 |
| 2025-12-10T12:04:03+08:00 | 200.34376837154616 |
| 2025-12-10T12:04:32+08:00 | 200.52792475014698 |
| 2025-12-10T12:09:14+08:00 | 210.50734861845973 |
| 2025-12-10T13:50:04+08:00 | 210.5983245149912 |
| 2025-12-10T13:50:19+08:00 | 211.3641975308642 |
| 2025-12-10T13:50:32+08:00 | 219.2713109935332 |
| 2025-12-10T13:50:46+08:00 | 220.15314520870078 |
| 2025-12-10T13:51:03+08:00 | 220.385949441505 |
| 2025-12-10T14:05:04+08:00 | 222.42871840094062 |
| 2025-12-10T14:05:31+08:00 | 222.55349794238683 |
| 2025-12-10T14:05:43+08:00 | 222.84038800705468 |
| 2025-12-10T14:05:56+08:00 | 233.27542621987067 |
| 2025-12-10T14:09:23+08:00 | 238.95032333921222 |
| 2025-12-10T15:11:14+08:00 | 239.78453850676073 |
| 2025-12-10T15:11:24+08:00 | 242.2633744855967 |
| 2025-12-10T15:11:36+08:00 | 254.05055849500295 |
| 2025-12-10T15:11:54+08:00 | 254.09347442680777 |
| 2025-12-10T15:53:12+08:00 | 259.9723691945914 |
| 2025-12-10T16:07:50+08:00 | 262.4545855379189 |
| 2025-12-10T16:08:02+08:00 | 273.5950911228689 |
| 2025-12-10T17:16:02+08:00 | 278.6377131099353 |
| 2025-12-10T17:16:13+08:00 | 300.81584362139915 |
| 2025-12-10T17:50:04+08:00 | 403.69650205761315 |
| 2025-12-10T18:03:26+08:00 | 406.9298941798942 |
| 2025-12-10T18:04:01+08:00 | 410.4110817166373 |
| 2025-12-10T18:04:51+08:00 | 415.71310993533217 |
| 2025-12-10T18:05:45+08:00 | 428.9700176366843 |
| 2025-12-10T20:04:57+08:00 | 434.114785420341 |
| 2025-12-10T20:05:12+08:00 | 457.79203409758964 |
| 2025-12-10T20:05:41+08:00 | 461.05085243974133 |
| 2025-12-10T20:05:51+08:00 | 486.65343915343914 |
| 2025-12-10T21:34:24+08:00 | 492.09950029394474 |
| 2025-12-10T21:34:34+08:00 | 519.6274250440918 |
| 2025-12-10T22:12:57+08:00 | 530.3556731334509 |
| 2025-12-10T22:13:10+08:00 | 570.4056437389771 |
| 2025-12-11T08:44:26+08:00 | 790.9082892416226 |
| 2025-12-11T08:44:47+08:00 | 799.9582598471487 |
| 2025-12-11T08:44:53+08:00 | 830.2214873603763 |
| 2025-12-11T08:45:09+08:00 | 830.2214873603763 |
| 2025-12-11T09:21:57+08:00 | 845.7751322751323 |
| 2025-12-11T09:22:07+08:00 | 943.879188712522 |
| 2025-12-11T09:23:32+08:00 | 1199.611111111111 |
| 2025-12-11T09:23:41+08:00 | 1213.5 |
| 2025-12-11T09:26:14+08:00 | 1251.4579659024103 |
| 2025-12-11T10:00:16+08:00 | 1260.0121987066432 |
| 2025-12-11T10:08:46+08:00 | 1272.852733686067 |
| 2025-12-11T17:15:06+08:00 | 1337.49 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 1890.73x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.359, 乙组 α=0.400) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
果下科技中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 果下科技（02655）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
