纳芯微 02676中签预测
纳芯微（02676）中签预测
| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
16.2亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
5.3亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
4.9亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
3.9亿 |
| 5 |  信诚 |
1.0亿 |
| 6 |  长桥 |
9619万 |
| 7 | 卓锐证券 | 7040万 |
| 8 |  华盛 |
6800万 |
| 9 |  盈立 |
6019万 |
| 11 |  盈宝 |
1053万 |
| 12 |  艾德 |
1035万 |
| 13 |  TradeGo |
51万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-28T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-11-28T10:06:56+08:00 | 0.009945750452079566 |
| 2025-11-28T10:07:25+08:00 | 0.09697106690777577 |
| 2025-11-28T10:07:51+08:00 | 0.12409584086799276 |
| 2025-11-28T11:13:01+08:00 | 0.1367992766726944 |
| 2025-11-28T11:13:28+08:00 | 0.42160940325497287 |
| 2025-11-28T11:13:54+08:00 | 0.47649186256781195 |
| 2025-11-28T11:50:09+08:00 | 0.49909584086799275 |
| 2025-11-28T12:06:59+08:00 | 0.5105334538878843 |
| 2025-11-28T12:07:31+08:00 | 0.5319620253164556 |
| 2025-11-28T12:07:50+08:00 | 0.5500452079566004 |
| 2025-11-28T13:45:32+08:00 | 0.5808318264014467 |
| 2025-11-28T13:46:01+08:00 | 0.6087703435804701 |
| 2025-11-28T13:46:25+08:00 | 0.658499095840868 |
| 2025-11-28T14:02:39+08:00 | 0.8689421338155515 |
| 2025-11-28T14:04:42+08:00 | 0.8851265822784811 |
| 2025-11-28T14:05:05+08:00 | 0.8870705244122966 |
| 2025-11-28T14:05:41+08:00 | 1.0317359855334538 |
| 2025-11-28T15:20:06+08:00 | 1.033499095840868 |
| 2025-11-28T15:20:27+08:00 | 1.036618444846293 |
| 2025-11-28T15:21:21+08:00 | 1.0704792043399638 |
| 2025-11-28T15:21:50+08:00 | 1.2693942133815552 |
| 2025-11-28T15:30:24+08:00 | 1.4050180831826402 |
| 2025-11-28T16:09:11+08:00 | 1.4502260397830018 |
| 2025-11-28T16:09:30+08:00 | 1.4541591320072333 |
| 2025-11-28T16:09:53+08:00 | 1.506509945750452 |
| 2025-11-28T16:10:35+08:00 | 1.511482820976492 |
| 2025-11-28T16:11:03+08:00 | 1.543128390596745 |
| 2025-11-28T17:08:47+08:00 | 1.5456148282097648 |
| 2025-11-28T17:09:04+08:00 | 1.5666817359855334 |
| 2025-11-28T17:09:33+08:00 | 1.940867992766727 |
| 2025-11-28T17:09:55+08:00 | 1.9951175406871609 |
| 2025-11-28T17:43:19+08:00 | 3.3513562386980107 |
| 2025-11-28T18:03:19+08:00 | 3.3524412296564194 |
| 2025-11-28T18:03:32+08:00 | 3.3558318264014466 |
| 2025-11-28T18:03:42+08:00 | 3.3579566003616637 |
| 2025-11-28T18:05:39+08:00 | 3.377757685352622 |
| 2025-11-28T18:06:20+08:00 | 3.3641952983725134 |
| 2025-11-28T21:04:21+08:00 | 3.368128390596745 |
| 2025-11-28T21:04:50+08:00 | 3.380244122965642 |
| 2025-11-28T21:05:18+08:00 | 3.3811482820976493 |
| 2025-11-28T21:05:44+08:00 | 3.3585443037974683 |
| 2025-11-28T21:06:07+08:00 | 3.3648282097649185 |
| 2025-11-28T21:06:24+08:00 | 3.366500904159132 |
| 2025-11-28T21:06:52+08:00 | 3.377260397830018 |
| 2025-11-28T21:07:16+08:00 | 3.377893309222423 |
| 2025-11-28T21:07:32+08:00 | 3.3869349005424954 |
| 2025-11-28T22:08:28+08:00 | 3.3935804701627488 |
| 2025-11-28T22:08:45+08:00 | 3.4116636528028934 |
| 2025-11-29T07:20:36+08:00 | 3.6863471971066906 |
| 2025-11-29T07:21:14+08:00 | 3.6863471971066906 |
| 2025-11-29T07:21:30+08:00 | 3.698372513562387 |
| 2025-11-29T09:23:22+08:00 | 3.6985985533453887 |
| 2025-11-29T09:23:37+08:00 | 3.7064195298372513 |
| 2025-11-29T09:23:59+08:00 | 4.0635623869801085 |
| 2025-11-29T09:24:27+08:00 | 4.07251356238698 |
| 2025-11-29T09:25:12+08:00 | 4.074909584086799 |
| 2025-11-29T09:25:22+08:00 | 4.076311030741411 |
| 2025-11-29T09:25:42+08:00 | 4.080831826401447 |
| 2025-11-29T10:44:52+08:00 | 4.081916817359855 |
| 2025-11-29T10:45:19+08:00 | 4.086754068716094 |
| 2025-11-29T10:45:38+08:00 | 4.1183996383363475 |
| 2025-11-29T11:16:57+08:00 | 4.1184900542495475 |
| 2025-11-29T11:17:13+08:00 | 4.109584086799277 |
| 2025-11-29T11:17:22+08:00 | 4.110126582278481 |
| 2025-11-29T11:17:37+08:00 | 4.173417721518987 |
| 2025-11-29T12:23:38+08:00 | 4.174593128390597 |
| 2025-11-29T12:23:53+08:00 | 4.1792043399638334 |
| 2025-11-29T12:24:05+08:00 | 4.179249547920434 |
| 2025-11-29T12:24:23+08:00 | 4.228978300180832 |
| 2025-11-29T15:56:30+08:00 | 4.2294303797468356 |
| 2025-11-29T15:56:47+08:00 | 4.236301989150091 |
| 2025-11-29T15:57:25+08:00 | 4.23634719710669 |
| 2025-11-29T15:57:44+08:00 | 4.082640144665461 |
| 2025-11-29T15:58:01+08:00 | 4.083227848101266 |
| 2025-11-29T15:58:21+08:00 | 4.083273056057866 |
| 2025-11-29T15:58:28+08:00 | 4.047106690777577 |
| 2025-11-29T19:02:27+08:00 | 4.047694394213382 |
| 2025-11-29T19:02:33+08:00 | 4.044349005424955 |
| 2025-11-29T19:03:14+08:00 | 4.044484629294756 |
| 2025-11-29T19:03:36+08:00 | 4.046066907775769 |
| 2025-11-29T19:03:58+08:00 | 4.0731916817359854 |
| 2025-11-29T19:04:04+08:00 | 4.074502712477396 |
| 2025-11-29T19:04:33+08:00 | 4.074593128390597 |
| 2025-11-29T19:05:07+08:00 | 4.074773960216998 |
| 2025-11-29T19:05:24+08:00 | 4.106419529837251 |
| 2025-11-29T19:05:44+08:00 | 4.059267631103074 |
| 2025-11-29T20:21:45+08:00 | 4.059810126582279 |
| 2025-11-29T20:22:05+08:00 | 4.0643309222423145 |
| 2025-11-29T21:25:48+08:00 | 4.069077757685353 |
| 2025-11-29T22:10:32+08:00 | 4.070253164556962 |
| 2025-11-29T22:11:20+08:00 | 4.101898734177215 |
| 2025-11-30T10:34:19+08:00 | 4.102396021699819 |
| 2025-11-30T10:39:22+08:00 | 4.106374321880651 |
| 2025-11-30T10:40:29+08:00 | 4.121925858951175 |
| 2025-11-30T10:40:33+08:00 | 4.121971066907776 |
| 2025-11-30T10:42:45+08:00 | 4.112929475587704 |
| 2025-11-30T10:42:49+08:00 | 4.284719710669078 |
| 2025-11-30T10:42:54+08:00 | 4.307323688969259 |
| 2025-11-30T12:31:34+08:00 | 4.307188065099457 |
| 2025-11-30T12:31:51+08:00 | 4.30754972875226 |
| 2025-11-30T12:32:46+08:00 | 4.298462929475588 |
| 2025-11-30T12:33:59+08:00 | 4.2990958408679925 |
| 2025-11-30T12:35:13+08:00 | 4.303616636528029 |
| 2025-11-30T17:22:14+08:00 | 4.307594936708861 |
| 2025-11-30T17:22:19+08:00 | 4.308905967450271 |
| 2025-11-30T17:22:23+08:00 | 4.308951175406872 |
| 2025-11-30T17:25:26+08:00 | 4.309041591320073 |
| 2025-11-30T17:25:30+08:00 | 4.3092224231464735 |
| 2025-11-30T17:25:33+08:00 | 4.309764918625678 |
| 2025-11-30T17:25:41+08:00 | 4.3099005424954795 |
| 2025-11-30T17:29:59+08:00 | 4.386754068716094 |
| 2025-11-30T17:30:03+08:00 | 4.39127486437613 |
| 2025-11-30T17:30:07+08:00 | 4.404837251356239 |
| 2025-11-30T17:30:11+08:00 | 4.418399638336347 |
| 2025-11-30T17:31:00+08:00 | 4.418444846292948 |
| 2025-11-30T17:31:04+08:00 | 4.419168173598553 |
| 2025-11-30T22:07:03+08:00 | 4.419529837251356 |
| 2025-11-30T22:07:07+08:00 | 4.424276672694394 |
| 2025-11-30T22:07:11+08:00 | 4.424773960216998 |
| 2025-11-30T22:07:15+08:00 | 4.424864376130199 |
| 2025-11-30T22:10:19+08:00 | 4.424909584086799 |
| 2025-11-30T22:10:22+08:00 | 4.4250452079566 |
| 2025-11-30T22:10:27+08:00 | 4.426175406871609 |
| 2025-11-30T22:10:31+08:00 | 4.42631103074141 |
| 2025-11-30T22:10:58+08:00 | 4.426717902350814 |
| 2025-11-30T22:11:03+08:00 | 4.427260397830018 |
| 2025-11-30T22:12:32+08:00 | 4.454385171790235 |
| 2025-11-30T22:12:36+08:00 | 4.472468354430379 |
| 2025-11-30T22:12:39+08:00 | 4.476989150090416 |
| 2025-11-30T22:12:43+08:00 | 4.495072332730561 |
| 2025-12-01T08:45:57+08:00 | 4.495569620253165 |
| 2025-12-01T08:46:28+08:00 | 4.497920433996383 |
| 2025-12-01T08:48:06+08:00 | 4.506962025316455 |
| 2025-12-01T08:48:23+08:00 | 4.506962025316455 |
| 2025-12-01T09:07:11+08:00 | 4.5146925858951175 |
| 2025-12-01T09:07:26+08:00 | 4.58250452079566 |
| 2025-12-01T09:07:50+08:00 | 4.583634719710669 |
| 2025-12-01T09:08:21+08:00 | 4.585081374321881 |
| 2025-12-01T09:14:30+08:00 | 4.5986437613019895 |
| 2025-12-01T10:12:19+08:00 | 4.60623869801085 |
| 2025-12-01T10:12:37+08:00 | 4.655922242314648 |
| 2025-12-01T10:13:27+08:00 | 4.800587703435805 |
| 2025-12-01T10:13:54+08:00 | 4.8018987341772155 |
| 2025-12-01T11:11:14+08:00 | 4.817766726943942 |
| 2025-12-01T11:11:47+08:00 | 4.833273056057866 |
| 2025-12-01T11:12:09+08:00 | 4.964376130198915 |
| 2025-12-01T11:12:34+08:00 | 4.968987341772152 |
| 2025-12-01T12:04:01+08:00 | 4.9729656419529835 |
| 2025-12-01T12:04:31+08:00 | 4.982052441229657 |
| 2025-12-01T12:05:08+08:00 | 4.984674502712477 |
| 2025-12-01T12:05:35+08:00 | 5.151943942133816 |
| 2025-12-01T13:44:57+08:00 | 5.1572332730560575 |
| 2025-12-01T13:45:23+08:00 | 5.157007233273056 |
| 2025-12-01T13:45:46+08:00 | 5.206735985533454 |
| 2025-12-01T13:47:33+08:00 | 5.220298372513563 |
| 2025-12-01T13:47:57+08:00 | 5.221202531645569 |
| 2025-12-01T14:02:27+08:00 | 5.221564195298373 |
| 2025-12-01T14:03:41+08:00 | 5.6842224231464735 |
| 2025-12-01T14:04:48+08:00 | 5.6885623869801085 |
| 2025-12-01T14:05:11+08:00 | 5.691862567811935 |
| 2025-12-01T14:05:36+08:00 | 5.750632911392405 |
| 2025-12-01T14:21:12+08:00 | 5.841048824593129 |
| 2025-12-01T15:15:55+08:00 | 5.842314647377939 |
| 2025-12-01T15:16:25+08:00 | 5.781419529837251 |
| 2025-12-01T15:16:47+08:00 | 5.785126582278481 |
| 2025-12-01T15:17:38+08:00 | 5.871021699819168 |
| 2025-12-01T16:30:53+08:00 | 5.874593128390597 |
| 2025-12-01T16:31:10+08:00 | 5.930831826401446 |
| 2025-12-01T16:31:24+08:00 | 5.9210216998191685 |
| 2025-12-01T16:32:00+08:00 | 6.015958408679928 |
| 2025-12-01T17:22:12+08:00 | 6.016998191681736 |
| 2025-12-01T17:23:10+08:00 | 6.275542495479204 |
| 2025-12-01T17:23:22+08:00 | 6.276039783001808 |
| 2025-12-01T17:23:58+08:00 | 6.818535262206148 |
| 2025-12-01T18:04:20+08:00 | 6.8186708860759495 |
| 2025-12-01T18:04:41+08:00 | 6.850135623869801 |
| 2025-12-01T18:05:55+08:00 | 6.881735985533454 |
| 2025-12-01T18:06:18+08:00 | 6.913381555153707 |
| 2025-12-01T18:08:22+08:00 | 6.9618896925858955 |
| 2025-12-01T19:44:56+08:00 | 7.070388788426763 |
| 2025-12-01T19:45:12+08:00 | 7.071021699819168 |
| 2025-12-01T19:45:26+08:00 | 7.131645569620253 |
| 2025-12-01T19:45:49+08:00 | 7.296383363471971 |
| 2025-12-01T19:46:08+08:00 | 7.377757685352622 |
| 2025-12-01T20:08:31+08:00 | 7.399547920433997 |
| 2025-12-01T20:08:56+08:00 | 7.318580470162749 |
| 2025-12-01T20:09:25+08:00 | 7.535578661844484 |
| 2025-12-01T21:35:47+08:00 | 7.5250904159132 |
| 2025-12-01T21:36:02+08:00 | 7.758544303797469 |
| 2025-12-01T21:36:22+08:00 | 7.8127938517179025 |
| 2025-12-01T22:03:44+08:00 | 7.799457504520795 |
| 2025-12-01T22:03:53+08:00 | 7.856871609403255 |
| 2025-12-01T22:08:29+08:00 | 7.902079566003617 |
| 2025-12-02T08:54:49+08:00 | 7.947558770343581 |
| 2025-12-02T08:55:02+08:00 | 8.029566003616637 |
| 2025-12-02T08:55:22+08:00 | 8.269168173598553 |
| 2025-12-02T08:55:53+08:00 | 8.31500904159132 |
| 2025-12-02T08:56:14+08:00 | 8.31500904159132 |
| 2025-12-02T09:04:48+08:00 | 8.34502712477396 |
| 2025-12-02T09:05:22+08:00 | 8.322468354430379 |
| 2025-12-02T09:05:33+08:00 | 8.32613019891501 |
| 2025-12-02T09:05:52+08:00 | 8.529566003616637 |
| 2025-12-02T09:06:58+08:00 | 8.635262206148282 |
| 2025-12-02T09:27:06+08:00 | 8.680470162748644 |
| 2025-12-02T10:23:32+08:00 | 8.757549728752261 |
| 2025-12-02T10:24:02+08:00 | 8.765506329113924 |
| 2025-12-02T10:24:17+08:00 | 9.127169981916817 |
| 2025-12-02T11:15:13+08:00 | 9.136030741410488 |
| 2025-12-02T11:15:43+08:00 | 9.258905967450271 |
| 2025-12-02T11:16:02+08:00 | 9.330605786618445 |
| 2025-12-02T11:16:16+08:00 | 9.439104882459313 |
| 2025-12-02T12:01:39+08:00 | 9.445840867992766 |
| 2025-12-02T12:07:00+08:00 | 9.46369801084991 |
| 2025-12-02T12:07:14+08:00 | 9.473327305605787 |
| 2025-12-02T12:07:32+08:00 | 9.523056057866185 |
| 2025-12-02T13:48:56+08:00 | 9.525497287522604 |
| 2025-12-02T13:49:18+08:00 | 9.539285714285715 |
| 2025-12-02T13:49:36+08:00 | 9.546021699819168 |
| 2025-12-02T13:49:50+08:00 | 9.586708860759494 |
| 2025-12-02T14:07:03+08:00 | 9.591094032549728 |
| 2025-12-02T14:07:32+08:00 | 9.597197106690778 |
| 2025-12-02T14:07:47+08:00 | 9.632730560578661 |
| 2025-12-02T14:08:04+08:00 | 9.790958408679927 |
| 2025-12-02T14:09:11+08:00 | 10.590235081374322 |
| 2025-12-02T15:03:19+08:00 | 10.598101265822784 |
| 2025-12-02T15:03:47+08:00 | 10.563652802893309 |
| 2025-12-02T15:04:09+08:00 | 10.571428571428571 |
| 2025-12-02T15:05:30+08:00 | 10.616636528028932 |
| 2025-12-02T15:31:51+08:00 | 10.842676311030742 |
| 2025-12-02T16:23:49+08:00 | 10.859674502712478 |
| 2025-12-02T16:24:05+08:00 | 10.990777576853526 |
| 2025-12-02T17:17:02+08:00 | 11.019213381555154 |
| 2025-12-02T17:17:43+08:00 | 11.105108499095842 |
| 2025-12-02T17:38:04+08:00 | 12.144891500904158 |
| 2025-12-02T18:01:47+08:00 | 12.190099457504521 |
| 2025-12-02T18:03:49+08:00 | 12.234493670886076 |
| 2025-12-02T18:05:01+08:00 | 12.23874321880651 |
| 2025-12-02T18:05:13+08:00 | 12.292992766726943 |
| 2025-12-02T20:20:03+08:00 | 12.292043399638336 |
| 2025-12-02T20:20:12+08:00 | 12.585895117540687 |
| 2025-12-02T20:20:53+08:00 | 12.61374321880651 |
| 2025-12-02T20:21:03+08:00 | 12.604701627486438 |
| 2025-12-02T21:28:49+08:00 | 12.701039783001809 |
| 2025-12-02T21:28:58+08:00 | 13.162160940325498 |
| 2025-12-02T22:04:39+08:00 | 13.16130198915009 |
| 2025-12-02T22:06:03+08:00 | 13.229113924050633 |
| 2025-12-03T09:48:30+08:00 | 13.290370705244124 |
| 2025-12-03T09:49:29+08:00 | 13.290370705244124 |
| 2025-12-03T09:51:28+08:00 | 13.382549728752261 |
| 2025-12-03T09:51:48+08:00 | 14.517269439421337 |
| 2025-12-03T09:52:54+08:00 | 14.537974683544304 |
| 2025-12-03T09:53:02+08:00 | 15.080470162748643 |
| 2025-12-03T09:53:25+08:00 | 15.10759493670886 |
| 2025-12-03T10:09:50+08:00 | 15.425858951175407 |
| 2025-12-03T10:11:57+08:00 | 15.475587703435805 |
| 2025-12-03T10:12:49+08:00 | 15.58 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 25.33x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.579, 乙组 α=0.679) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
纳芯微中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示稳中（≥1手）
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 纳芯微（02676）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 356 只 IPO 的 10897 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
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