牧原股份 02714
新股中签预测
40.4004.55%( +1.760 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  辉立 |
29.5亿 |
| 2 |  富途 |
14.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
2.0亿 |
| 4 |  招银 |
8000万 |
| 5 |  华泰 |
7756万 |
| 6 |  长桥 |
6490万 |
| 7 |  盈立 |
3220万 |
| 8 |  信诚 |
2000万 |
| 9 |  华盛 |
1500万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-29T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-01-29T10:32:00+08:00 | 0.002807910820752333 |
| 2026-01-29T10:32:06+08:00 | 0.004108909501034247 |
| 2026-01-29T11:08:00+08:00 | 0.006954259132729944 |
| 2026-01-29T11:09:03+08:00 | 0.013468612236875357 |
| 2026-01-29T11:11:06+08:00 | 0.015958293164609092 |
| 2026-01-29T11:11:25+08:00 | 0.05246113383438942 |
| 2026-01-29T12:10:00+08:00 | 0.05526904465514175 |
| 2026-01-29T12:10:20+08:00 | 0.05663556125457456 |
| 2026-01-29T12:10:48+08:00 | 0.062307541112494265 |
| 2026-01-29T12:11:02+08:00 | 0.06477850263475632 |
| 2026-01-29T12:11:15+08:00 | 0.14995179753091042 |
| 2026-01-29T13:41:27+08:00 | 0.15007347366647636 |
| 2026-01-29T13:42:33+08:00 | 0.1542946996003407 |
| 2026-01-29T13:42:55+08:00 | 0.15542722363137748 |
| 2026-01-29T13:43:13+08:00 | 0.17133871828230735 |
| 2026-01-29T14:17:26+08:00 | 0.17248060201607998 |
| 2026-01-29T14:18:20+08:00 | 0.1732106588294756 |
| 2026-01-29T14:18:37+08:00 | 0.1769732593292837 |
| 2026-01-29T14:18:51+08:00 | 0.19007684315946125 |
| 2026-01-29T15:10:53+08:00 | 0.1906758641345551 |
| 2026-01-29T15:11:57+08:00 | 0.19579562153106017 |
| 2026-01-29T15:12:12+08:00 | 0.19668479329096508 |
| 2026-01-29T15:12:30+08:00 | 0.25097106915884354 |
| 2026-01-29T15:14:00+08:00 | 0.26969047463052576 |
| 2026-01-29T16:27:00+08:00 | 0.27057964639043064 |
| 2026-01-29T16:27:47+08:00 | 0.27206783912542937 |
| 2026-01-29T16:28:14+08:00 | 0.2724983854512781 |
| 2026-01-29T16:28:25+08:00 | 0.2949616720172967 |
| 2026-01-29T16:29:39+08:00 | 0.3015789818515364 |
| 2026-01-29T17:17:28+08:00 | 0.30161642066247973 |
| 2026-01-29T17:18:35+08:00 | 0.30218736252936607 |
| 2026-01-29T17:18:57+08:00 | 0.3023839162868187 |
| 2026-01-29T17:19:07+08:00 | 0.3033198865604028 |
| 2026-01-29T17:45:50+08:00 | 0.8181035370316638 |
| 2026-01-29T18:00:10+08:00 | 0.8181784146535506 |
| 2026-01-29T18:02:55+08:00 | 0.8284928070684475 |
| 2026-01-29T18:05:38+08:00 | 0.8289888713134471 |
| 2026-01-29T18:06:03+08:00 | 0.8293726191256166 |
| 2026-01-29T18:06:23+08:00 | 0.9042502410123454 |
| 2026-01-29T19:46:57+08:00 | 0.9054482829625331 |
| 2026-01-29T19:47:29+08:00 | 0.9059069083965893 |
| 2026-01-29T19:47:43+08:00 | 0.906103462154042 |
| 2026-01-29T19:47:57+08:00 | 0.9107833135219625 |
| 2026-01-29T20:03:22+08:00 | 0.9115508091463015 |
| 2026-01-29T20:03:43+08:00 | 0.908340431107908 |
| 2026-01-29T21:35:34+08:00 | 0.9092202431650771 |
| 2026-01-29T21:35:53+08:00 | 0.9101842925468687 |
| 2026-01-29T21:36:07+08:00 | 0.9111202628204528 |
| 2026-01-29T22:06:02+08:00 | 0.9127956496101683 |
| 2026-01-29T22:06:23+08:00 | 0.9144523169944122 |
| 2026-01-29T22:06:38+08:00 | 0.9107084359000758 |
| 2026-01-30T08:57:46+08:00 | 0.9133291526661114 |
| 2026-01-30T08:58:07+08:00 | 0.9133291526661114 |
| 2026-01-30T08:58:17+08:00 | 0.9151262155913928 |
| 2026-01-30T08:58:24+08:00 | 0.9157626753774301 |
| 2026-01-30T08:58:35+08:00 | 0.9223144672925188 |
| 2026-01-30T09:02:23+08:00 | 0.9252066154378937 |
| 2026-01-30T09:04:05+08:00 | 0.9261519454142136 |
| 2026-01-30T09:07:35+08:00 | 0.921472094046293 |
| 2026-01-30T10:15:07+08:00 | 0.9233440345934613 |
| 2026-01-30T10:15:12+08:00 | 0.9239149764603476 |
| 2026-01-30T10:15:24+08:00 | 0.9243736018944039 |
| 2026-01-30T10:15:30+08:00 | 0.9240647317041211 |
| 2026-01-30T10:15:38+08:00 | 0.9352963749871304 |
| 2026-01-30T11:07:14+08:00 | 0.9390683351896744 |
| 2026-01-30T11:08:18+08:00 | 0.9401447010042961 |
| 2026-01-30T11:08:57+08:00 | 0.9385535515392032 |
| 2026-01-30T11:09:09+08:00 | 0.9451053434542919 |
| 2026-01-30T11:09:59+08:00 | 0.9788189927087916 |
| 2026-01-30T12:14:28+08:00 | 0.9791746614127536 |
| 2026-01-30T12:15:26+08:00 | 0.9805224586067146 |
| 2026-01-30T12:15:41+08:00 | 0.9806254153368089 |
| 2026-01-30T13:42:48+08:00 | 0.9809342855270916 |
| 2026-01-30T13:43:43+08:00 | 0.9835643619958631 |
| 2026-01-30T13:44:21+08:00 | 0.9807564511751107 |
| 2026-01-30T13:45:11+08:00 | 0.9826471111277506 |
| 2026-01-30T14:03:13+08:00 | 0.9791840211154894 |
| 2026-01-30T14:04:08+08:00 | 0.9893860970975562 |
| 2026-01-30T14:05:29+08:00 | 0.9905467002368005 |
| 2026-01-30T14:05:41+08:00 | 0.9708913244915341 |
| 2026-01-30T14:09:07+08:00 | 0.9721548843608727 |
| 2026-01-30T15:10:06+08:00 | 0.9730346964180417 |
| 2026-01-30T15:10:47+08:00 | 0.9764135491056805 |
| 2026-01-30T15:12:13+08:00 | 0.9769564118643592 |
| 2026-01-30T15:12:22+08:00 | 1.4973558839771248 |
| 2026-01-30T15:54:14+08:00 | 1.4973558839771248 |
| 2026-01-30T16:06:46+08:00 | 1.497589876545521 |
| 2026-01-30T16:07:23+08:00 | 1.4986662423601427 |
| 2026-01-30T16:08:29+08:00 | 1.5005662620155185 |
| 2026-01-30T16:09:19+08:00 | 1.3919937102797615 |
| 2026-01-30T17:11:02+08:00 | 1.3921902640372141 |
| 2026-01-30T17:11:30+08:00 | 1.3983957469510768 |
| 2026-01-30T17:12:50+08:00 | 1.3978341647869263 |
| 2026-01-30T17:13:29+08:00 | 1.41000177834352 |
| 2026-01-30T18:10:15+08:00 | 1.4568002920227254 |
| 2026-01-30T18:12:16+08:00 | 1.4567441338063103 |
| 2026-01-30T18:13:04+08:00 | 1.4567160546981028 |
| 2026-01-30T18:13:32+08:00 | 1.4594397281942326 |
| 2026-01-30T18:15:11+08:00 | 1.4697354012036579 |
| 2026-01-30T18:20:14+08:00 | 1.468958545876583 |
| 2026-01-30T19:58:20+08:00 | 1.4698851564474313 |
| 2026-01-30T19:58:54+08:00 | 1.4745650078153518 |
| 2026-01-30T19:59:44+08:00 | 1.4737132748663901 |
| 2026-01-30T19:59:58+08:00 | 1.474087662975824 |
| 2026-01-30T20:00:22+08:00 | 1.4694078116079032 |
| 2026-01-30T20:04:04+08:00 | 1.4694546101215826 |
| 2026-01-30T20:04:19+08:00 | 1.4721221254012973 |
| 2026-01-30T20:05:19+08:00 | 1.4833537686843066 |
| 2026-01-30T21:21:40+08:00 | 1.4834380060089292 |
| 2026-01-30T21:21:53+08:00 | 1.483447365711665 |
| 2026-01-30T21:22:11+08:00 | 1.4843833359852492 |
| 2026-01-30T22:03:41+08:00 | 1.4845798897427018 |
| 2026-01-30T22:05:41+08:00 | 1.4873878005634542 |
| 2026-01-31T10:28:04+08:00 | 1.4877528289701518 |
| 2026-01-31T10:28:30+08:00 | 1.4877528289701518 |
| 2026-01-31T10:28:40+08:00 | 1.496064244999579 |
| 2026-01-31T10:28:49+08:00 | 1.5185275315655975 |
| 2026-01-31T10:29:03+08:00 | 1.5233571381772915 |
| 2026-01-31T10:29:30+08:00 | 1.523740885989461 |
| 2026-01-31T10:29:39+08:00 | 1.5340365589988862 |
| 2026-01-31T10:29:47+08:00 | 1.5340927172153012 |
| 2026-01-31T10:30:03+08:00 | 1.5352720397600172 |
| 2026-01-31T10:30:17+08:00 | 1.5352626800572813 |
| 2026-01-31T10:30:31+08:00 | 1.5361986503308656 |
| 2026-01-31T11:08:40+08:00 | 1.5363016070609596 |
| 2026-01-31T11:09:48+08:00 | 1.5370971817935062 |
| 2026-01-31T13:32:04+08:00 | 1.537172059415393 |
| 2026-01-31T13:33:51+08:00 | 1.542123342162653 |
| 2026-01-31T13:35:06+08:00 | 1.5420391048380304 |
| 2026-01-31T13:36:11+08:00 | 1.5429750751116145 |
| 2026-01-31T16:27:57+08:00 | 1.543059312436237 |
| 2026-01-31T16:31:19+08:00 | 1.5433401035183123 |
| 2026-01-31T16:33:20+08:00 | 1.5461480143390647 |
| 2026-01-31T16:33:24+08:00 | 1.5508278657069852 |
| 2026-01-31T18:30:42+08:00 | 1.5508653045179286 |
| 2026-01-31T18:33:03+08:00 | 1.5509682612480227 |
| 2026-01-31T18:34:45+08:00 | 1.551071217978117 |
| 2026-01-31T18:35:13+08:00 | 1.552007188251701 |
| 2026-01-31T20:25:15+08:00 | 1.5520539867653804 |
| 2026-01-31T20:27:29+08:00 | 1.5520820658735879 |
| 2026-01-31T20:29:01+08:00 | 1.5522318211173614 |
| 2026-01-31T20:29:28+08:00 | 1.5700152563154595 |
| 2026-01-31T21:25:57+08:00 | 1.5700246160181952 |
| 2026-02-01T10:26:13+08:00 | 1.5700339757209312 |
| 2026-02-01T10:30:59+08:00 | 1.5702586085865913 |
| 2026-02-01T10:32:03+08:00 | 1.571802959538005 |
| 2026-02-01T10:34:30+08:00 | 1.589586394736103 |
| 2026-02-01T10:34:54+08:00 | 1.5914583352832714 |
| 2026-02-01T13:28:18+08:00 | 1.5915144934996865 |
| 2026-02-01T13:30:01+08:00 | 1.5917391263653466 |
| 2026-02-01T13:30:23+08:00 | 1.59177656517629 |
| 2026-02-01T13:30:55+08:00 | 1.5918514427981767 |
| 2026-02-01T13:31:49+08:00 | 1.5920292771501576 |
| 2026-02-01T13:32:25+08:00 | 1.5922071115021388 |
| 2026-02-01T13:32:49+08:00 | 1.5923755861513837 |
| 2026-02-01T13:36:36+08:00 | 1.5895676753306316 |
| 2026-02-01T16:31:54+08:00 | 1.5895770350333673 |
| 2026-02-01T16:38:55+08:00 | 1.5956982806226074 |
| 2026-02-01T16:39:31+08:00 | 1.595726359730815 |
| 2026-02-01T16:41:19+08:00 | 1.5994702408251513 |
| 2026-02-01T19:43:12+08:00 | 1.5995731975552456 |
| 2026-02-01T19:46:19+08:00 | 1.6004810887206222 |
| 2026-02-01T19:46:49+08:00 | 1.6098407914564634 |
| 2026-02-01T19:47:11+08:00 | 1.6135846725507998 |
| 2026-02-01T21:36:31+08:00 | 1.6138373845246674 |
| 2026-02-01T21:36:53+08:00 | 1.6138467442274034 |
| 2026-02-01T21:37:11+08:00 | 1.6213345064160762 |
| 2026-02-02T08:55:52+08:00 | 1.6213345064160762 |
| 2026-02-02T08:57:37+08:00 | 1.6234965977480555 |
| 2026-02-02T08:58:30+08:00 | 1.6234965977480555 |
| 2026-02-02T08:59:17+08:00 | 1.6169448058329667 |
| 2026-02-02T08:59:33+08:00 | 1.6487677951348265 |
| 2026-02-02T09:00:01+08:00 | 1.6490766653251092 |
| 2026-02-02T09:03:38+08:00 | 1.6456697335292632 |
| 2026-02-02T09:08:40+08:00 | 1.6417573777856815 |
| 2026-02-02T09:09:09+08:00 | 1.6782976572664052 |
| 2026-02-02T09:09:35+08:00 | 1.6801695978135733 |
| 2026-02-02T10:12:59+08:00 | 1.684849449181494 |
| 2026-02-02T10:14:27+08:00 | 1.6891923512509244 |
| 2026-02-02T10:15:55+08:00 | 1.6971668179818609 |
| 2026-02-02T10:16:19+08:00 | 1.6972884941174269 |
| 2026-02-02T10:17:23+08:00 | 1.7206877509570295 |
| 2026-02-02T11:12:10+08:00 | 1.7202197658202376 |
| 2026-02-02T11:14:28+08:00 | 1.7214271674731612 |
| 2026-02-02T11:15:18+08:00 | 1.7217173182579721 |
| 2026-02-02T11:15:41+08:00 | 1.7675798616635936 |
| 2026-02-02T12:26:03+08:00 | 1.7678606527456688 |
| 2026-02-02T12:30:51+08:00 | 1.7686468677754794 |
| 2026-02-02T12:31:15+08:00 | 1.7702380172405725 |
| 2026-02-02T12:31:35+08:00 | 1.7880214524386706 |
| 2026-02-02T13:43:28+08:00 | 1.788349042034425 |
| 2026-02-02T13:45:02+08:00 | 1.7890978182532922 |
| 2026-02-02T13:45:16+08:00 | 1.790473694555461 |
| 2026-02-02T13:45:42+08:00 | 1.7811139918196197 |
| 2026-02-02T14:08:25+08:00 | 1.781216948549714 |
| 2026-02-02T14:10:23+08:00 | 1.7823307531752792 |
| 2026-02-02T14:10:36+08:00 | 1.7826583427710336 |
| 2026-02-02T14:11:01+08:00 | 1.78640222386537 |
| 2026-02-02T15:07:15+08:00 | 1.787001244840464 |
| 2026-02-02T15:08:17+08:00 | 1.786879568704898 |
| 2026-02-02T15:10:26+08:00 | 1.7871603597869732 |
| 2026-02-02T15:12:46+08:00 | 1.7890323003341413 |
| 2026-02-02T16:20:44+08:00 | 1.7938619069458355 |
| 2026-02-02T16:22:02+08:00 | 1.917409983058938 |
| 2026-02-02T17:21:25+08:00 | 1.9309441132149643 |
| 2026-02-02T17:22:18+08:00 | 1.9505994889602307 |
| 2026-02-02T17:24:17+08:00 | 1.953650752052115 |
| 2026-02-02T17:56:20+08:00 | 1.4856656152600594 |
| 2026-02-02T18:14:11+08:00 | 1.6728596699768816 |
| 2026-02-02T18:15:35+08:00 | 1.676669068990369 |
| 2026-02-02T18:15:47+08:00 | 1.70194026637714 |
| 2026-02-02T18:19:42+08:00 | 1.708295504534776 |
| 2026-02-02T20:53:06+08:00 | 1.7085575762113796 |
| 2026-02-02T20:53:28+08:00 | 1.7132374275793 |
| 2026-02-02T20:53:59+08:00 | 1.721661160041557 |
| 2026-02-02T21:40:04+08:00 | 1.7362435769039974 |
| 2026-02-03T07:52:32+08:00 | 1.747475220187007 |
| 2026-02-03T07:54:40+08:00 | 1.76119654439775 |
| 2026-02-03T07:54:46+08:00 | 1.764902986681143 |
| 2026-02-03T07:55:20+08:00 | 1.764902986681143 |
| 2026-02-03T09:13:49+08:00 | 1.7774917868608493 |
| 2026-02-03T09:14:07+08:00 | 1.8025664304901676 |
| 2026-02-03T09:18:20+08:00 | 1.8596606171787984 |
| 2026-02-03T09:18:46+08:00 | 1.882123903744817 |
| 2026-02-03T09:25:09+08:00 | 1.8975861326644266 |
| 2026-02-03T10:07:33+08:00 | 1.9004595614043298 |
| 2026-02-03T10:07:46+08:00 | 1.979081064385395 |
| 2026-02-03T10:51:55+08:00 | 4.459402289383289 |
| 2026-02-03T13:52:18+08:00 | 4.534279911270018 |
| 2026-02-03T16:48:18+08:00 | 4.55 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 5.88x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.568, 乙组 α=0.668) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
牧原股份中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 牧原股份（02714）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
