乐欣户外 02720
新股中签预测
21.7000.93%( +0.200 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
638.9亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
133.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
108.3亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
30.9亿 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
10.0亿 |
| 6 |  招银 |
6.8亿 |
| 7 |  盈立 |
4.8亿 |
| 8 |  TradeGo |
3.1亿 |
| 9 |  致富 |
1.6亿 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-02-02T10:12:52+08:00 | 0.05788712011577424 |
| 2026-02-02T10:14:43+08:00 | 0.061070911722141824 |
| 2026-02-02T10:15:45+08:00 | 0.08798842257597685 |
| 2026-02-02T11:12:27+08:00 | 0.23733719247467439 |
| 2026-02-02T11:13:47+08:00 | 0.24283646888567295 |
| 2026-02-02T11:14:20+08:00 | 0.2549927641099855 |
| 2026-02-02T11:16:01+08:00 | 0.9785817655571636 |
| 2026-02-02T12:25:22+08:00 | 0.9811866859623734 |
| 2026-02-02T12:26:20+08:00 | 0.984081041968162 |
| 2026-02-02T12:26:34+08:00 | 0.984370477568741 |
| 2026-02-02T12:30:42+08:00 | 1.0075253256150507 |
| 2026-02-02T12:31:54+08:00 | 1.2101302460202605 |
| 2026-02-02T12:32:33+08:00 | 1.2127351664254704 |
| 2026-02-02T13:43:47+08:00 | 1.2164978292329958 |
| 2026-02-02T13:44:48+08:00 | 1.2205499276410998 |
| 2026-02-02T14:09:00+08:00 | 1.2228654124457308 |
| 2026-02-02T14:09:47+08:00 | 1.2234442836468886 |
| 2026-02-02T14:10:09+08:00 | 1.2683068017366137 |
| 2026-02-02T14:11:20+08:00 | 1.5287988422575978 |
| 2026-02-02T15:07:30+08:00 | 1.5441389290882779 |
| 2026-02-02T15:09:33+08:00 | 1.5467438494934878 |
| 2026-02-02T15:10:48+08:00 | 1.5487698986975398 |
| 2026-02-02T15:12:21+08:00 | 1.606657018813314 |
| 2026-02-02T16:17:59+08:00 | 1.608683068017366 |
| 2026-02-02T16:20:56+08:00 | 1.654124457308249 |
| 2026-02-02T16:21:40+08:00 | 1.5383502170767005 |
| 2026-02-02T17:16:14+08:00 | 1.5400868306801736 |
| 2026-02-02T17:16:57+08:00 | 1.541534008683068 |
| 2026-02-02T17:21:02+08:00 | 1.6138929088277858 |
| 2026-02-02T17:21:58+08:00 | 2.366425470332851 |
| 2026-02-02T17:23:59+08:00 | 2.368451519536903 |
| 2026-02-02T18:13:36+08:00 | 2.371056439942113 |
| 2026-02-02T18:14:00+08:00 | 3.615629522431259 |
| 2026-02-02T18:15:20+08:00 | 4.029232995658466 |
| 2026-02-02T18:16:10+08:00 | 4.521273516642547 |
| 2026-02-02T18:19:06+08:00 | 4.5597684515195365 |
| 2026-02-02T20:50:29+08:00 | 4.562662807525325 |
| 2026-02-02T20:51:04+08:00 | 4.573950795947901 |
| 2026-02-02T20:52:48+08:00 | 4.718958031837916 |
| 2026-02-02T20:53:54+08:00 | 4.5742402315484805 |
| 2026-02-02T21:39:06+08:00 | 4.577713458755427 |
| 2026-02-02T21:39:41+08:00 | 4.613024602026049 |
| 2026-02-02T21:40:33+08:00 | 4.960347322720694 |
| 2026-02-03T07:51:55+08:00 | 4.965557163531114 |
| 2026-02-03T07:52:51+08:00 | 5.775976845151954 |
| 2026-02-03T07:54:19+08:00 | 5.78465991316932 |
| 2026-02-03T07:54:24+08:00 | 5.881041968162084 |
| 2026-02-03T07:55:35+08:00 | 5.881041968162084 |
| 2026-02-03T09:13:41+08:00 | 5.949927641099856 |
| 2026-02-03T09:13:58+08:00 | 5.960347322720694 |
| 2026-02-03T09:16:35+08:00 | 6.141534008683068 |
| 2026-02-03T09:17:16+08:00 | 6.145586107091172 |
| 2026-02-03T09:18:42+08:00 | 6.319247467438495 |
| 2026-02-03T09:19:01+08:00 | 6.637626628075253 |
| 2026-02-03T09:24:31+08:00 | 6.778292329956584 |
| 2026-02-03T09:28:39+08:00 | 6.792764109985528 |
| 2026-02-03T10:01:58+08:00 | 6.824312590448625 |
| 2026-02-03T10:02:16+08:00 | 6.831259044862518 |
| 2026-02-03T10:07:04+08:00 | 7.131693198263386 |
| 2026-02-03T10:08:05+08:00 | 7.507959479015919 |
| 2026-02-03T11:12:37+08:00 | 7.531982633863965 |
| 2026-02-03T11:13:08+08:00 | 7.6141823444283645 |
| 2026-02-03T11:13:40+08:00 | 9.148191027496383 |
| 2026-02-03T11:13:50+08:00 | 9.149638205499276 |
| 2026-02-03T11:51:35+08:00 | 9.160057887120116 |
| 2026-02-03T11:51:39+08:00 | 9.165267727930535 |
| 2026-02-03T12:00:22+08:00 | 9.20028943560058 |
| 2026-02-03T12:04:14+08:00 | 9.202894356005789 |
| 2026-02-03T12:06:02+08:00 | 9.282199710564399 |
| 2026-02-03T12:07:13+08:00 | 9.97684515195369 |
| 2026-02-03T13:45:51+08:00 | 9.981476121562952 |
| 2026-02-03T13:46:51+08:00 | 9.98176555716353 |
| 2026-02-03T13:47:24+08:00 | 9.98205499276411 |
| 2026-02-03T13:47:45+08:00 | 10.908248914616498 |
| 2026-02-03T14:09:08+08:00 | 10.918958031837915 |
| 2026-02-03T14:09:51+08:00 | 11.56410998552822 |
| 2026-02-03T14:10:11+08:00 | 11.593053545586107 |
| 2026-02-03T14:10:42+08:00 | 11.596237337192475 |
| 2026-02-03T14:15:54+08:00 | 12.325036179450072 |
| 2026-02-03T15:20:13+08:00 | 12.338929088277858 |
| 2026-02-03T15:20:38+08:00 | 12.293777134587554 |
| 2026-02-03T15:21:05+08:00 | 12.295803183791607 |
| 2026-02-03T15:21:54+08:00 | 12.729956584659913 |
| 2026-02-03T16:04:49+08:00 | 13.029232995658466 |
| 2026-02-03T16:05:18+08:00 | 13.029522431259045 |
| 2026-02-03T16:05:52+08:00 | 13.408393632416788 |
| 2026-02-03T16:06:14+08:00 | 14.971345875542692 |
| 2026-02-03T17:24:52+08:00 | 15.019681620839362 |
| 2026-02-03T17:25:15+08:00 | 15.021418234442837 |
| 2026-02-03T17:26:10+08:00 | 15.080173661360348 |
| 2026-02-03T17:26:36+08:00 | 15.45643994211288 |
| 2026-02-03T17:27:21+08:00 | 15.528798842257597 |
| 2026-02-03T17:31:57+08:00 | 16.889146164978293 |
| 2026-02-03T18:03:35+08:00 | 16.917221418234444 |
| 2026-02-03T18:03:46+08:00 | 18.364399421128798 |
| 2026-02-03T18:04:06+08:00 | 18.368162083936323 |
| 2026-02-03T18:04:23+08:00 | 18.383791606367584 |
| 2026-02-03T18:05:38+08:00 | 18.90477568740955 |
| 2026-02-03T18:30:28+08:00 | 19.126193921852387 |
| 2026-02-03T20:13:18+08:00 | 19.208683068017365 |
| 2026-02-03T20:14:04+08:00 | 19.20984081041968 |
| 2026-02-03T20:14:35+08:00 | 19.232416787264835 |
| 2026-02-03T20:15:27+08:00 | 19.301302460202606 |
| 2026-02-03T20:18:35+08:00 | 20.024891461649784 |
| 2026-02-03T20:18:54+08:00 | 20.603762662807526 |
| 2026-02-03T21:47:57+08:00 | 20.527062228654124 |
| 2026-02-03T21:48:40+08:00 | 20.932272069464545 |
| 2026-02-04T08:43:05+08:00 | 20.932272069464545 |
| 2026-02-04T08:43:14+08:00 | 20.934876989869753 |
| 2026-02-04T08:49:40+08:00 | 20.958900144717802 |
| 2026-02-04T08:50:08+08:00 | 21.021997105643994 |
| 2026-02-04T08:50:19+08:00 | 21.321852387843705 |
| 2026-02-04T08:53:40+08:00 | 21.321852387843705 |
| 2026-02-04T08:54:01+08:00 | 21.7849493487699 |
| 2026-02-04T08:54:24+08:00 | 23.5794500723589 |
| 2026-02-04T09:03:20+08:00 | 24.157742402315485 |
| 2026-02-04T09:03:53+08:00 | 24.17713458755427 |
| 2026-02-04T09:04:10+08:00 | 24.20202604920405 |
| 2026-02-04T09:06:16+08:00 | 24.249493487698988 |
| 2026-02-04T09:08:43+08:00 | 25.349348769898697 |
| 2026-02-04T10:03:50+08:00 | 25.59971056439942 |
| 2026-02-04T10:04:18+08:00 | 25.607235890014472 |
| 2026-02-04T10:04:26+08:00 | 25.890882778581766 |
| 2026-02-04T10:09:26+08:00 | 28.408972503617946 |
| 2026-02-04T10:22:30+08:00 | 28.411287988422576 |
| 2026-02-04T10:24:09+08:00 | 28.990159189580318 |
| 2026-02-04T11:06:37+08:00 | 29.045441389290882 |
| 2026-02-04T11:06:47+08:00 | 29.070622286541244 |
| 2026-02-04T11:07:08+08:00 | 29.22026049204052 |
| 2026-02-04T11:07:26+08:00 | 32.317221418234446 |
| 2026-02-04T11:07:45+08:00 | 32.31982633863965 |
| 2026-02-04T11:07:58+08:00 | 32.35195369030391 |
| 2026-02-04T11:50:57+08:00 | 32.48104196816208 |
| 2026-02-04T12:00:24+08:00 | 32.57163531114327 |
| 2026-02-04T12:04:16+08:00 | 32.641968162083934 |
| 2026-02-04T12:04:39+08:00 | 32.755137481910275 |
| 2026-02-04T12:05:53+08:00 | 33.047467438494934 |
| 2026-02-04T12:06:11+08:00 | 35.53661360347323 |
| 2026-02-04T13:45:38+08:00 | 42.61476121562952 |
| 2026-02-04T13:46:46+08:00 | 42.619971056439944 |
| 2026-02-04T13:47:10+08:00 | 42.82720694645442 |
| 2026-02-04T13:47:32+08:00 | 44.53487698986975 |
| 2026-02-04T13:48:26+08:00 | 44.83125904486252 |
| 2026-02-04T13:48:43+08:00 | 45.08191027496382 |
| 2026-02-04T14:01:13+08:00 | 45.1739507959479 |
| 2026-02-04T14:01:45+08:00 | 45.18060781476122 |
| 2026-02-04T14:13:59+08:00 | 45.25094066570188 |
| 2026-02-04T14:14:13+08:00 | 49.10043415340087 |
| 2026-02-04T14:14:50+08:00 | 49.45933429811867 |
| 2026-02-04T14:16:31+08:00 | 49.44457308248914 |
| 2026-02-04T15:08:52+08:00 | 49.711722141823444 |
| 2026-02-04T15:09:32+08:00 | 49.62489146164978 |
| 2026-02-04T15:09:38+08:00 | 50.016497829232996 |
| 2026-02-04T15:09:41+08:00 | 50.18350217076701 |
| 2026-02-04T15:09:48+08:00 | 50.204052098408106 |
| 2026-02-04T15:10:08+08:00 | 50.24399421128799 |
| 2026-02-04T15:10:25+08:00 | 51.53487698986975 |
| 2026-02-04T15:10:46+08:00 | 55.96324167872648 |
| 2026-02-04T15:47:16+08:00 | 55.965846599131694 |
| 2026-02-04T15:47:21+08:00 | 55.88277858176556 |
| 2026-02-04T16:02:33+08:00 | 55.97221418234443 |
| 2026-02-04T16:02:44+08:00 | 56.2616497829233 |
| 2026-02-04T16:03:19+08:00 | 56.285672937771345 |
| 2026-02-04T16:03:54+08:00 | 57.4150506512301 |
| 2026-02-04T16:13:34+08:00 | 61.64081041968162 |
| 2026-02-04T16:48:37+08:00 | 61.64341534008683 |
| 2026-02-04T16:48:42+08:00 | 61.939507959479016 |
| 2026-02-04T16:48:48+08:00 | 61.974529667149056 |
| 2026-02-04T17:04:40+08:00 | 61.94732272069464 |
| 2026-02-04T17:05:03+08:00 | 61.97973950795948 |
| 2026-02-04T17:05:08+08:00 | 62.16382054992764 |
| 2026-02-04T17:05:37+08:00 | 77.69088277858177 |
| 2026-02-04T17:05:53+08:00 | 148.6315484804631 |
| 2026-02-04T17:34:09+08:00 | 151.67062228654123 |
| 2026-02-04T17:34:41+08:00 | 170.77337192474675 |
| 2026-02-04T17:35:39+08:00 | 170.83791606367583 |
| 2026-02-04T18:01:39+08:00 | 170.8382054992764 |
| 2026-02-04T18:01:48+08:00 | 170.9837916063676 |
| 2026-02-04T18:01:59+08:00 | 171.361505065123 |
| 2026-02-04T18:02:10+08:00 | 171.49030390738062 |
| 2026-02-04T18:03:20+08:00 | 180.28538350217076 |
| 2026-02-04T18:05:04+08:00 | 182.60086830680174 |
| 2026-02-04T18:05:15+08:00 | 208.1875542691751 |
| 2026-02-04T18:05:41+08:00 | 300.9227206946454 |
| 2026-02-04T20:06:29+08:00 | 300.92532561505067 |
| 2026-02-04T20:06:34+08:00 | 301.19710564399423 |
| 2026-02-04T20:06:54+08:00 | 302.8535455861071 |
| 2026-02-04T20:07:04+08:00 | 315.0969609261939 |
| 2026-02-04T20:07:24+08:00 | 394.3733719247467 |
| 2026-02-04T20:07:41+08:00 | 394.37568740955135 |
| 2026-02-04T20:07:55+08:00 | 395.13082489146166 |
| 2026-02-04T20:08:14+08:00 | 411.80057887120114 |
| 2026-02-04T20:08:33+08:00 | 483.2043415340087 |
| 2026-02-04T21:44:18+08:00 | 484.86107091172215 |
| 2026-02-04T21:44:39+08:00 | 503.16382054992766 |
| 2026-02-04T21:44:54+08:00 | 598.446020260492 |
| 2026-02-04T21:45:04+08:00 | 598.4483357452966 |
| 2026-02-04T21:45:13+08:00 | 598.4480463096961 |
| 2026-02-05T08:43:24+08:00 | 618.9808972503617 |
| 2026-02-05T08:43:27+08:00 | 655.504486251809 |
| 2026-02-05T08:43:30+08:00 | 744.5033285094066 |
| 2026-02-05T08:43:56+08:00 | 744.8842257597685 |
| 2026-02-05T08:45:22+08:00 | 744.8842257597685 |
| 2026-02-05T08:46:01+08:00 | 873.972503617945 |
| 2026-02-05T08:46:09+08:00 | 1562.3082489146166 |
| 2026-02-05T08:46:22+08:00 | 1585.4630969609261 |
| 2026-02-05T08:50:33+08:00 | 1585.4654124457309 |
| 2026-02-05T09:11:39+08:00 | 1596.112011577424 |
| 2026-02-05T09:12:27+08:00 | 1639.27004341534 |
| 2026-02-05T09:12:47+08:00 | 1865.2613603473228 |
| 2026-02-05T09:13:01+08:00 | 1865.2749638205498 |
| 2026-02-05T09:13:45+08:00 | 1944.323589001447 |
| 2026-02-05T09:17:08+08:00 | 1944.1282199710565 |
| 2026-02-05T09:39:58+08:00 | 1943.665991316932 |
| 2026-02-05T09:56:39+08:00 | 1943.9652677279305 |
| 2026-02-05T10:07:00+08:00 | 1973.4373371924746 |
| 2026-02-05T10:07:46+08:00 | 2331.816497829233 |
| 2026-02-05T10:08:00+08:00 | 2332.0717800289435 |
| 2026-02-05T11:54:13+08:00 | 2693.8662807525325 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 3654.23x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.521, 乙组 α=0.621) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
乐欣户外中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 乐欣户外（02720）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
