深演智能 02723
新股中签预测
42.4009.13%( -4.260 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
1310.1亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
296.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
221.8亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
70.4亿 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
32.5亿 |
| 6 |  盈立 |
30.1亿 |
| 7 |  致富 |
26.3亿 |
| 8 |  复星 |
15.6亿 |
| 9 |  熊猫 |
14.0亿 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-18T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-05-18T10:09:17+08:00 | 0.006358036956089807 |
| 2026-05-18T10:09:29+08:00 | 0.4065169878799921 |
| 2026-05-18T10:09:36+08:00 | 1.0423206834889729 |
| 2026-05-18T11:10:42+08:00 | 1.0425193721438506 |
| 2026-05-18T11:11:02+08:00 | 2.4452612755811645 |
| 2026-05-18T11:11:30+08:00 | 4.928869461553745 |
| 2026-05-18T11:53:14+08:00 | 4.9845022849195315 |
| 2026-05-18T11:53:44+08:00 | 5.143453208821776 |
| 2026-05-18T12:08:20+08:00 | 5.235644744685079 |
| 2026-05-18T12:09:33+08:00 | 5.945559308563481 |
| 2026-05-18T12:10:13+08:00 | 7.018478044903636 |
| 2026-05-18T12:10:35+08:00 | 7.034174448638983 |
| 2026-05-18T13:44:33+08:00 | 7.146632227299821 |
| 2026-05-18T13:44:45+08:00 | 7.146830915954699 |
| 2026-05-18T13:45:53+08:00 | 7.431750447049473 |
| 2026-05-18T13:46:05+08:00 | 7.432743890323862 |
| 2026-05-18T13:46:27+08:00 | 8.58513808861514 |
| 2026-05-18T13:47:49+08:00 | 8.654480429167494 |
| 2026-05-18T13:48:08+08:00 | 8.664216173256508 |
| 2026-05-18T14:29:45+08:00 | 9.146036161335187 |
| 2026-05-18T14:30:38+08:00 | 9.58156169282734 |
| 2026-05-18T14:30:58+08:00 | 10.276971984899662 |
| 2026-05-18T14:31:29+08:00 | 10.286509040333797 |
| 2026-05-18T14:31:51+08:00 | 10.50268229684085 |
| 2026-05-18T14:33:11+08:00 | 11.068944963242599 |
| 2026-05-18T15:07:45+08:00 | 11.07868070733161 |
| 2026-05-18T15:08:08+08:00 | 11.255314921517982 |
| 2026-05-18T15:08:53+08:00 | 11.292271011325253 |
| 2026-05-18T15:09:20+08:00 | 11.928074706934234 |
| 2026-05-18T15:42:16+08:00 | 11.929068150208623 |
| 2026-05-18T15:42:30+08:00 | 12.16749453606199 |
| 2026-05-18T16:09:29+08:00 | 12.300218557520365 |
| 2026-05-18T16:10:20+08:00 | 13.194317504470495 |
| 2026-05-18T16:10:49+08:00 | 13.196900456983906 |
| 2026-05-18T16:11:01+08:00 | 13.2282932644546 |
| 2026-05-18T16:11:30+08:00 | 13.790979535068548 |
| 2026-05-18T16:34:46+08:00 | 13.88396582555136 |
| 2026-05-18T17:16:25+08:00 | 13.892310749056229 |
| 2026-05-18T17:16:58+08:00 | 14.120007947546195 |
| 2026-05-18T17:18:03+08:00 | 15.073713490959666 |
| 2026-05-18T17:35:41+08:00 | 15.07868070733161 |
| 2026-05-18T18:09:38+08:00 | 15.763759189350289 |
| 2026-05-18T18:09:54+08:00 | 19.141466322272997 |
| 2026-05-18T18:10:06+08:00 | 19.16570633816809 |
| 2026-05-18T18:10:28+08:00 | 20.91297436916352 |
| 2026-05-18T18:11:08+08:00 | 20.99483409497318 |
| 2026-05-18T18:11:25+08:00 | 30.432545201668983 |
| 2026-05-18T18:12:35+08:00 | 30.411484204251938 |
| 2026-05-18T20:13:08+08:00 | 30.82773693622094 |
| 2026-05-18T20:14:07+08:00 | 31.350089409894697 |
| 2026-05-18T20:14:37+08:00 | 31.657063381680906 |
| 2026-05-18T20:15:17+08:00 | 34.2104112855156 |
| 2026-05-18T20:15:37+08:00 | 41.899662229286704 |
| 2026-05-18T20:15:59+08:00 | 46.33041923306179 |
| 2026-05-18T22:04:06+08:00 | 46.338565467911785 |
| 2026-05-18T22:04:40+08:00 | 46.36856745479833 |
| 2026-05-18T22:05:17+08:00 | 48.12418040929863 |
| 2026-05-18T22:05:36+08:00 | 50.46870653685674 |
| 2026-05-18T22:05:55+08:00 | 55.873037949533085 |
| 2026-05-19T08:37:48+08:00 | 57.1011325253328 |
| 2026-05-19T08:37:50+08:00 | 58.08404530101331 |
| 2026-05-19T08:38:22+08:00 | 58.099940393403536 |
| 2026-05-19T08:38:25+08:00 | 58.03437313729386 |
| 2026-05-19T08:39:14+08:00 | 58.03437313729386 |
| 2026-05-19T08:39:35+08:00 | 76.2739916550765 |
| 2026-05-19T09:00:39+08:00 | 79.75124180409298 |
| 2026-05-19T09:02:10+08:00 | 82.68348897277966 |
| 2026-05-19T09:13:48+08:00 | 83.12278958871448 |
| 2026-05-19T09:14:19+08:00 | 83.3500894098947 |
| 2026-05-19T09:14:46+08:00 | 83.36777270017882 |
| 2026-05-19T09:15:28+08:00 | 87.85813630041724 |
| 2026-05-19T09:16:08+08:00 | 88.25551361017286 |
| 2026-05-19T10:02:14+08:00 | 89.02900854361216 |
| 2026-05-19T10:03:07+08:00 | 90.17464732763759 |
| 2026-05-19T10:03:52+08:00 | 90.39062189548977 |
| 2026-05-19T10:04:16+08:00 | 90.85595072521359 |
| 2026-05-19T10:04:34+08:00 | 90.88217762765746 |
| 2026-05-19T10:05:36+08:00 | 100.39936419630439 |
| 2026-05-19T10:30:59+08:00 | 100.53685674547984 |
| 2026-05-19T11:05:09+08:00 | 101.59308563481025 |
| 2026-05-19T11:05:23+08:00 | 101.86846811047089 |
| 2026-05-19T11:06:17+08:00 | 103.16570633816809 |
| 2026-05-19T11:06:46+08:00 | 103.18835684482416 |
| 2026-05-19T11:07:05+08:00 | 113.54003576395787 |
| 2026-05-19T11:36:52+08:00 | 113.7152791575601 |
| 2026-05-19T11:50:36+08:00 | 114.47029604609577 |
| 2026-05-19T12:08:08+08:00 | 115.48480031790184 |
| 2026-05-19T12:09:06+08:00 | 115.49692032584939 |
| 2026-05-19T12:09:33+08:00 | 116.27319690045698 |
| 2026-05-19T12:10:17+08:00 | 116.37730975561296 |
| 2026-05-19T12:10:32+08:00 | 125.29843035962647 |
| 2026-05-19T13:43:45+08:00 | 125.37373335982515 |
| 2026-05-19T13:43:54+08:00 | 125.41366977945559 |
| 2026-05-19T13:44:23+08:00 | 125.96999801311345 |
| 2026-05-19T13:44:46+08:00 | 125.92012716073913 |
| 2026-05-19T13:45:21+08:00 | 125.92092191535863 |
| 2026-05-19T13:45:39+08:00 | 134.66322272998212 |
| 2026-05-19T13:46:01+08:00 | 135.40830518577388 |
| 2026-05-19T14:16:05+08:00 | 136.13570435128153 |
| 2026-05-19T14:16:18+08:00 | 136.46671965030797 |
| 2026-05-19T14:16:36+08:00 | 138.41386846811048 |
| 2026-05-19T14:16:53+08:00 | 138.4512219352275 |
| 2026-05-19T14:18:00+08:00 | 145.40532485595074 |
| 2026-05-19T14:18:39+08:00 | 147.27856149413867 |
| 2026-05-19T15:03:00+08:00 | 147.28054838068746 |
| 2026-05-19T15:03:29+08:00 | 148.34134710908006 |
| 2026-05-19T15:04:18+08:00 | 150.6264653288297 |
| 2026-05-19T15:04:40+08:00 | 150.655275183787 |
| 2026-05-19T15:05:20+08:00 | 151.39082058414465 |
| 2026-05-19T15:05:46+08:00 | 161.7027617723028 |
| 2026-05-19T15:31:42+08:00 | 162.20882177627658 |
| 2026-05-19T16:01:58+08:00 | 163.15895092390224 |
| 2026-05-19T16:02:14+08:00 | 163.41506060003974 |
| 2026-05-19T17:14:16+08:00 | 171.64077091198092 |
| 2026-05-19T17:14:25+08:00 | 183.04549970196703 |
| 2026-05-19T17:15:20+08:00 | 185.93582356447448 |
| 2026-05-19T17:15:23+08:00 | 188.64573812835286 |
| 2026-05-19T17:16:29+08:00 | 188.65746075899065 |
| 2026-05-19T17:16:44+08:00 | 188.67355454003575 |
| 2026-05-19T17:17:57+08:00 | 188.88356844824162 |
| 2026-05-19T17:18:28+08:00 | 191.06914365189746 |
| 2026-05-19T17:18:48+08:00 | 192.25650705344725 |
| 2026-05-19T17:19:23+08:00 | 192.40532485595074 |
| 2026-05-19T17:39:35+08:00 | 192.61653089608583 |
| 2026-05-19T18:00:10+08:00 | 193.1531889529108 |
| 2026-05-19T18:00:39+08:00 | 195.73614146632227 |
| 2026-05-19T18:01:10+08:00 | 195.91714683091595 |
| 2026-05-19T18:02:01+08:00 | 198.45440095370554 |
| 2026-05-19T18:03:28+08:00 | 199.12855155970595 |
| 2026-05-19T18:03:48+08:00 | 199.12000794754618 |
| 2026-05-19T18:26:57+08:00 | 205.35883171070932 |
| 2026-05-19T20:21:54+08:00 | 205.46433538644942 |
| 2026-05-19T20:22:49+08:00 | 205.50983508841645 |
| 2026-05-19T20:23:17+08:00 | 207.18199880786807 |
| 2026-05-19T20:23:32+08:00 | 211.19550963639975 |
| 2026-05-19T20:23:46+08:00 | 214.29505265249355 |
| 2026-05-19T21:52:35+08:00 | 214.3107490562289 |
| 2026-05-19T21:52:51+08:00 | 216.27816411682892 |
| 2026-05-19T21:53:04+08:00 | 216.31651102722034 |
| 2026-05-19T21:53:13+08:00 | 218.3232664414862 |
| 2026-05-19T22:08:41+08:00 | 219.84025432147826 |
| 2026-05-19T22:08:55+08:00 | 219.92012716073913 |
| 2026-05-19T22:09:04+08:00 | 224.4700973574409 |
| 2026-05-20T08:10:09+08:00 | 225.7099145638784 |
| 2026-05-20T08:10:19+08:00 | 230.43532684283727 |
| 2026-05-20T08:10:35+08:00 | 230.48460162924698 |
| 2026-05-20T08:10:44+08:00 | 230.60679515199683 |
| 2026-05-20T08:11:01+08:00 | 230.60679515199683 |
| 2026-05-20T08:11:14+08:00 | 256.5356646135506 |
| 2026-05-20T09:11:50+08:00 | 260.9582753824757 |
| 2026-05-20T09:12:01+08:00 | 261.4085038744288 |
| 2026-05-20T09:12:07+08:00 | 263.2928670772899 |
| 2026-05-20T09:12:14+08:00 | 263.57063381680905 |
| 2026-05-20T09:12:21+08:00 | 271.5579177428969 |
| 2026-05-20T10:07:36+08:00 | 272.32783628054835 |
| 2026-05-20T10:07:49+08:00 | 273.1225909000596 |
| 2026-05-20T10:07:55+08:00 | 273.96562686270613 |
| 2026-05-20T10:08:01+08:00 | 274.24577786608387 |
| 2026-05-20T10:08:11+08:00 | 277.37432942578977 |
| 2026-05-20T10:08:26+08:00 | 290.2890919928472 |
| 2026-05-20T11:04:23+08:00 | 290.5002980329823 |
| 2026-05-20T11:05:12+08:00 | 291.05304987085236 |
| 2026-05-20T11:05:42+08:00 | 291.50248360818597 |
| 2026-05-20T11:06:05+08:00 | 293.85515597059407 |
| 2026-05-20T11:06:50+08:00 | 293.87542221339163 |
| 2026-05-20T11:06:59+08:00 | 306.47228293264453 |
| 2026-05-20T12:11:32+08:00 | 306.78640969600633 |
| 2026-05-20T12:11:58+08:00 | 307.2594873832704 |
| 2026-05-20T12:12:43+08:00 | 307.4816212994238 |
| 2026-05-20T12:13:06+08:00 | 308.9149612557123 |
| 2026-05-20T12:13:35+08:00 | 309.06556725610966 |
| 2026-05-20T12:13:42+08:00 | 319.55632823365784 |
| 2026-05-20T12:39:19+08:00 | 320.3312139876813 |
| 2026-05-20T13:40:30+08:00 | 320.9632425988476 |
| 2026-05-20T13:41:12+08:00 | 321.1120604013511 |
| 2026-05-20T13:41:37+08:00 | 323.45281144446653 |
| 2026-05-20T13:42:19+08:00 | 323.5318895291079 |
| 2026-05-20T13:42:30+08:00 | 333.1682892906815 |
| 2026-05-20T13:43:02+08:00 | 333.36717663421416 |
| 2026-05-20T14:10:08+08:00 | 333.59407907808463 |
| 2026-05-20T14:10:26+08:00 | 333.81402741903435 |
| 2026-05-20T14:11:18+08:00 | 336.0913967812438 |
| 2026-05-20T14:12:11+08:00 | 336.1710709318498 |
| 2026-05-20T14:12:20+08:00 | 350.05940790780846 |
| 2026-05-20T14:52:26+08:00 | 354.4901649115836 |
| 2026-05-20T14:54:54+08:00 | 354.8460162924697 |
| 2026-05-20T15:05:55+08:00 | 355.3634015497715 |
| 2026-05-20T15:06:24+08:00 | 355.5175839459567 |
| 2026-05-20T15:06:58+08:00 | 357.3016093781045 |
| 2026-05-20T15:07:29+08:00 | 357.33955891118615 |
| 2026-05-20T15:07:34+08:00 | 371.84383071726603 |
| 2026-05-20T16:09:56+08:00 | 372.59407907808463 |
| 2026-05-20T16:10:22+08:00 | 374.3822769719849 |
| 2026-05-20T16:10:40+08:00 | 378.39181402741906 |
| 2026-05-20T16:11:02+08:00 | 378.89568845618913 |
| 2026-05-20T16:11:29+08:00 | 418.52592886946155 |
| 2026-05-20T16:11:52+08:00 | 418.575601033181 |
| 2026-05-20T16:12:03+08:00 | 609.6743492946553 |
| 2026-05-20T17:16:33+08:00 | 627.7550168885357 |
| 2026-05-20T17:16:45+08:00 | 628.8036956089808 |
| 2026-05-20T17:17:10+08:00 | 632.3689648321081 |
| 2026-05-20T17:17:29+08:00 | 639.9135704351281 |
| 2026-05-20T17:17:49+08:00 | 691.198489966223 |
| 2026-05-20T17:18:06+08:00 | 691.2388237631632 |
| 2026-05-20T17:18:12+08:00 | 947.7458772104113 |
| 2026-05-20T17:50:16+08:00 | 953.3091595469899 |
| 2026-05-20T17:50:25+08:00 | 959.801708722432 |
| 2026-05-20T17:50:44+08:00 | 1079.014901649116 |
| 2026-05-20T17:50:58+08:00 | 1081.3991655076495 |
| 2026-05-20T18:01:07+08:00 | 1120.1831909397974 |
| 2026-05-20T18:02:59+08:00 | 1137.320286111663 |
| 2026-05-20T18:03:31+08:00 | 1142.1202066362011 |
| 2026-05-20T18:03:52+08:00 | 1171.9811245777867 |
| 2026-05-20T18:04:07+08:00 | 1178.6481223922115 |
| 2026-05-20T18:09:52+08:00 | 1331.3800913967812 |
| 2026-05-20T20:04:12+08:00 | 1336.8187959467514 |
| 2026-05-20T20:04:45+08:00 | 1342.0359626465329 |
| 2026-05-20T20:05:28+08:00 | 1347.7216371945162 |
| 2026-05-20T20:06:23+08:00 | 1379.5708325054638 |
| 2026-05-20T20:06:39+08:00 | 1491.988873435327 |
| 2026-05-20T20:06:57+08:00 | 1590.160937810451 |
| 2026-05-20T21:35:59+08:00 | 1594.6298430359627 |
| 2026-05-20T21:36:34+08:00 | 1612.638982714087 |
| 2026-05-20T21:36:55+08:00 | 1614.95966620306 |
| 2026-05-20T21:37:08+08:00 | 1733.1794158553546 |
| 2026-05-20T22:09:56+08:00 | 1757.3792966421618 |
| 2026-05-20T22:10:09+08:00 | 1760.2964434730777 |
| 2026-05-20T22:10:22+08:00 | 1915.4126763361812 |
| 2026-05-21T08:42:50+08:00 | 1952.755811643155 |
| 2026-05-21T08:43:01+08:00 | 2040.7878005165906 |
| 2026-05-21T08:43:42+08:00 | 2043.9908603218755 |
| 2026-05-21T08:43:53+08:00 | 2048.6671965030796 |
| 2026-05-21T08:44:50+08:00 | 2754.5682495529504 |
| 2026-05-21T08:45:28+08:00 | 2754.5682495529504 |
| 2026-05-21T08:45:49+08:00 | 2782.2257103119414 |
| 2026-05-21T09:00:34+08:00 | 2790.5082455791776 |
| 2026-05-21T09:01:46+08:00 | 2810.917146830916 |
| 2026-05-21T09:02:54+08:00 | 2899.632823365786 |
| 2026-05-21T09:07:40+08:00 | 2924.5344724816214 |
| 2026-05-21T09:08:05+08:00 | 2925.6203059805284 |
| 2026-05-21T09:08:33+08:00 | 3113.5797734949333 |
| 2026-05-21T09:40:28+08:00 | 3118.149612557123 |
| 2026-05-21T09:40:48+08:00 | 3135.678521756408 |
| 2026-05-21T10:09:52+08:00 | 3139.3163123385657 |
| 2026-05-21T10:10:21+08:00 | 3177.7601827935623 |
| 2026-05-21T10:11:04+08:00 | 3539.8106497119015 |
| 2026-05-21T11:07:29+08:00 | 3544.184780449036 |
| 2026-05-21T11:48:22+08:00 | 4007.1293463143256 |
| 2026-05-21T17:31:20+08:00 | 4060.48 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 5480.23x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.522, 乙组 α=0.576) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
深演智能中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 深演智能（02723）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
