翰思艾泰－Ｂ 03378
新股中签预测
24.8800.08%( -0.020 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
1014.8亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
210.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
172.3亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
79.5亿 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
25.5亿 |
| 6 | 卓锐证券 | 11.6亿 |
| 7 |  长桥 |
2.9亿 |
| 8 |  信诚 |
2.0亿 |
| 9 |  盈立 |
1.9亿 |
| 11 |  TradeGo |
5847万 |
| 12 |  盈宝 |
2421万 |
| 13 |  Funderstone |
2361万 |
| 14 |  艾德 |
1134万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-15T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-12-15T10:16:36+08:00 | 0.006993006993006993 |
| 2025-12-15T10:17:27+08:00 | 0.08152822786969129 |
| 2025-12-15T10:17:46+08:00 | 0.7166979362101313 |
| 2025-12-15T10:19:12+08:00 | 0.8360907385297629 |
| 2025-12-15T11:15:54+08:00 | 0.9566774688725909 |
| 2025-12-15T11:16:49+08:00 | 1.073341292853488 |
| 2025-12-15T11:17:36+08:00 | 1.7675251577690603 |
| 2025-12-15T11:19:01+08:00 | 2.176871908579226 |
| 2025-12-15T12:05:27+08:00 | 2.2556711581101827 |
| 2025-12-15T12:06:24+08:00 | 2.286372164420945 |
| 2025-12-15T12:07:16+08:00 | 2.837796349991472 |
| 2025-12-15T12:08:22+08:00 | 3.4859287054409007 |
| 2025-12-15T12:08:45+08:00 | 3.741770424697254 |
| 2025-12-15T13:45:13+08:00 | 4.241002899539485 |
| 2025-12-15T13:46:26+08:00 | 4.246119733924612 |
| 2025-12-15T13:47:56+08:00 | 6.429302404912161 |
| 2025-12-15T13:50:56+08:00 | 6.4796179430325775 |
| 2025-12-15T13:51:50+08:00 | 6.530786286883848 |
| 2025-12-15T14:01:58+08:00 | 6.537949855023026 |
| 2025-12-15T14:03:04+08:00 | 7.192392972880778 |
| 2025-12-15T14:07:49+08:00 | 7.24953095684803 |
| 2025-12-15T14:08:49+08:00 | 7.931775541531639 |
| 2025-12-15T14:09:46+08:00 | 8.122462902950708 |
| 2025-12-15T15:10:07+08:00 | 8.198021490704418 |
| 2025-12-15T15:11:22+08:00 | 8.328500767525158 |
| 2025-12-15T15:12:02+08:00 | 8.361930752174654 |
| 2025-12-15T15:13:07+08:00 | 8.856558076070272 |
| 2025-12-15T16:08:13+08:00 | 8.88077775882654 |
| 2025-12-15T16:08:58+08:00 | 9.060719768036842 |
| 2025-12-15T16:09:35+08:00 | 9.116663823980897 |
| 2025-12-15T16:10:40+08:00 | 10.634658024901928 |
| 2025-12-15T17:11:35+08:00 | 10.649837966911138 |
| 2025-12-15T17:12:27+08:00 | 11.405764966740577 |
| 2025-12-15T17:13:40+08:00 | 11.599692989936893 |
| 2025-12-15T17:14:49+08:00 | 12.674228210813578 |
| 2025-12-15T17:34:00+08:00 | 14.550400818693502 |
| 2025-12-15T18:06:36+08:00 | 14.624594917277845 |
| 2025-12-15T18:07:13+08:00 | 14.795156063448747 |
| 2025-12-15T18:08:21+08:00 | 15.198874296435273 |
| 2025-12-15T18:08:31+08:00 | 15.248678151117176 |
| 2025-12-15T18:10:01+08:00 | 16.16970834044005 |
| 2025-12-15T18:11:05+08:00 | 16.62391267269316 |
| 2025-12-15T20:12:39+08:00 | 16.625106600716357 |
| 2025-12-15T20:15:09+08:00 | 17.00187617260788 |
| 2025-12-15T20:15:46+08:00 | 16.915742793791573 |
| 2025-12-15T20:17:08+08:00 | 17.23980897151629 |
| 2025-12-15T20:17:44+08:00 | 17.2227528568992 |
| 2025-12-15T22:13:47+08:00 | 17.626982773324237 |
| 2025-12-15T22:14:05+08:00 | 17.606003752345217 |
| 2025-12-15T22:14:58+08:00 | 18.895275456251067 |
| 2025-12-15T22:16:13+08:00 | 20.03803513559611 |
| 2025-12-15T22:16:52+08:00 | 21.35135596111206 |
| 2025-12-16T08:55:37+08:00 | 21.660924441412245 |
| 2025-12-16T08:56:26+08:00 | 21.660924441412245 |
| 2025-12-16T08:57:37+08:00 | 22.125191881289442 |
| 2025-12-16T08:58:47+08:00 | 25.195292512365683 |
| 2025-12-16T09:00:38+08:00 | 25.270851100119394 |
| 2025-12-16T09:03:30+08:00 | 25.51066007163568 |
| 2025-12-16T09:03:41+08:00 | 25.533685826368753 |
| 2025-12-16T09:05:55+08:00 | 25.874808118710558 |
| 2025-12-16T09:54:41+08:00 | 26.04536926488146 |
| 2025-12-16T10:05:19+08:00 | 26.78441071123998 |
| 2025-12-16T10:06:44+08:00 | 28.32901245096367 |
| 2025-12-16T10:06:50+08:00 | 28.33259423503326 |
| 2025-12-16T10:07:32+08:00 | 30.873955312979703 |
| 2025-12-16T11:07:44+08:00 | 31.07180624253795 |
| 2025-12-16T11:08:12+08:00 | 31.221900051168344 |
| 2025-12-16T11:10:20+08:00 | 31.23196315879243 |
| 2025-12-16T11:11:05+08:00 | 32.25533003581784 |
| 2025-12-16T12:06:01+08:00 | 32.431519699812384 |
| 2025-12-16T12:06:51+08:00 | 32.448575814429475 |
| 2025-12-16T12:07:39+08:00 | 32.592529421797714 |
| 2025-12-16T12:08:37+08:00 | 34.315196998123824 |
| 2025-12-16T13:45:28+08:00 | 34.37267610438342 |
| 2025-12-16T13:45:57+08:00 | 34.713798396725224 |
| 2025-12-16T13:46:46+08:00 | 34.753198021490704 |
| 2025-12-16T13:47:14+08:00 | 35.11529933481153 |
| 2025-12-16T13:48:02+08:00 | 35.89988060719768 |
| 2025-12-16T14:01:12+08:00 | 35.9208596281767 |
| 2025-12-16T14:02:04+08:00 | 37.94252089374041 |
| 2025-12-16T14:08:30+08:00 | 38.00170561146171 |
| 2025-12-16T14:09:01+08:00 | 39.929046563192905 |
| 2025-12-16T14:09:42+08:00 | 39.93484564216271 |
| 2025-12-16T15:09:15+08:00 | 40.133037694013304 |
| 2025-12-16T15:09:49+08:00 | 40.148047074876345 |
| 2025-12-16T15:10:21+08:00 | 40.00307010063108 |
| 2025-12-16T15:11:06+08:00 | 41.74279379157428 |
| 2025-12-16T15:48:15+08:00 | 43.448405253283305 |
| 2025-12-16T16:02:34+08:00 | 43.47859457615555 |
| 2025-12-16T16:03:26+08:00 | 43.56711581101825 |
| 2025-12-16T16:04:05+08:00 | 43.709022684632444 |
| 2025-12-16T16:07:27+08:00 | 45.090567968616746 |
| 2025-12-16T17:01:21+08:00 | 45.27562681221218 |
| 2025-12-16T17:03:57+08:00 | 45.34044004775712 |
| 2025-12-16T17:04:24+08:00 | 45.608221047245436 |
| 2025-12-16T17:05:48+08:00 | 48.79771448064131 |
| 2025-12-16T17:30:53+08:00 | 54.76735459662289 |
| 2025-12-16T18:11:44+08:00 | 54.887429643527206 |
| 2025-12-16T18:12:27+08:00 | 54.90192734095173 |
| 2025-12-16T18:12:32+08:00 | 54.98601398601399 |
| 2025-12-16T18:13:25+08:00 | 56.98157939621354 |
| 2025-12-16T18:14:12+08:00 | 57.84240150093809 |
| 2025-12-16T19:10:22+08:00 | 58.35408493945079 |
| 2025-12-16T19:10:37+08:00 | 58.38325089544602 |
| 2025-12-16T19:11:12+08:00 | 58.411905168002725 |
| 2025-12-16T19:11:17+08:00 | 58.43356643356643 |
| 2025-12-16T19:12:07+08:00 | 58.791744840525325 |
| 2025-12-16T20:22:16+08:00 | 58.85672863721644 |
| 2025-12-16T20:22:21+08:00 | 58.97902097902098 |
| 2025-12-16T20:23:02+08:00 | 59.40542384444824 |
| 2025-12-16T21:31:25+08:00 | 59.45846836090738 |
| 2025-12-16T21:31:29+08:00 | 59.54426061743135 |
| 2025-12-16T21:32:16+08:00 | 62.529080675422136 |
| 2025-12-16T22:17:16+08:00 | 62.59918130649838 |
| 2025-12-16T22:17:21+08:00 | 62.872931946102675 |
| 2025-12-16T22:17:59+08:00 | 64.18625277161863 |
| 2025-12-17T08:38:55+08:00 | 75.01688555347091 |
| 2025-12-17T08:39:22+08:00 | 75.01654443117857 |
| 2025-12-17T08:39:25+08:00 | 75.13593723349821 |
| 2025-12-17T08:40:58+08:00 | 75.27358007845812 |
| 2025-12-17T08:41:02+08:00 | 75.95770083574962 |
| 2025-12-17T08:41:38+08:00 | 75.95770083574962 |
| 2025-12-17T09:08:16+08:00 | 76.1664676786628 |
| 2025-12-17T09:08:48+08:00 | 76.51014838819717 |
| 2025-12-17T09:09:42+08:00 | 76.56899198362613 |
| 2025-12-17T09:10:19+08:00 | 79.98021490704417 |
| 2025-12-17T09:16:32+08:00 | 81.22087668429131 |
| 2025-12-17T09:25:36+08:00 | 81.45966228893059 |
| 2025-12-17T10:00:46+08:00 | 81.66945249872079 |
| 2025-12-17T10:03:32+08:00 | 81.9959065324919 |
| 2025-12-17T10:04:05+08:00 | 83.00460515094662 |
| 2025-12-17T10:05:24+08:00 | 89.23008698618455 |
| 2025-12-17T11:02:33+08:00 | 89.45147535391438 |
| 2025-12-17T11:03:55+08:00 | 90.24782534538632 |
| 2025-12-17T11:04:09+08:00 | 90.3646597305134 |
| 2025-12-17T11:05:45+08:00 | 96.74364659730513 |
| 2025-12-17T12:02:56+08:00 | 96.89527545625107 |
| 2025-12-17T12:03:25+08:00 | 97.22428790721473 |
| 2025-12-17T12:03:45+08:00 | 97.6817329012451 |
| 2025-12-17T12:04:03+08:00 | 97.98874296435272 |
| 2025-12-17T12:08:06+08:00 | 103.19085792256524 |
| 2025-12-17T13:48:16+08:00 | 103.4965034965035 |
| 2025-12-17T13:48:42+08:00 | 103.69554835408493 |
| 2025-12-17T13:49:03+08:00 | 107.87429643527204 |
| 2025-12-17T13:49:16+08:00 | 108.05270339416681 |
| 2025-12-17T14:00:51+08:00 | 108.20757291489 |
| 2025-12-17T14:01:29+08:00 | 110.13661947808289 |
| 2025-12-17T14:04:05+08:00 | 110.24185570527034 |
| 2025-12-17T14:04:18+08:00 | 111.75797373358348 |
| 2025-12-17T14:05:27+08:00 | 116.03905850247314 |
| 2025-12-17T15:05:17+08:00 | 116.24134402183182 |
| 2025-12-17T15:05:36+08:00 | 117.41002899539485 |
| 2025-12-17T15:05:52+08:00 | 122.7144806413099 |
| 2025-12-17T15:06:49+08:00 | 122.80931263858093 |
| 2025-12-17T15:37:05+08:00 | 124.51492410028996 |
| 2025-12-17T16:04:52+08:00 | 127.0093808630394 |
| 2025-12-17T16:06:39+08:00 | 210.87429643527204 |
| 2025-12-17T17:08:52+08:00 | 244.89902780146681 |
| 2025-12-17T17:09:15+08:00 | 457.9469554835409 |
| 2025-12-17T17:28:22+08:00 | 470.39791915401673 |
| 2025-12-17T17:33:12+08:00 | 527.3653419750981 |
| 2025-12-17T18:06:11+08:00 | 562.201603274774 |
| 2025-12-17T18:06:36+08:00 | 662.1333788163056 |
| 2025-12-17T18:07:41+08:00 | 707.3177554153164 |
| 2025-12-17T20:22:44+08:00 | 712.4345898004434 |
| 2025-12-17T20:23:05+08:00 | 732.8417192563534 |
| 2025-12-17T20:23:25+08:00 | 821.6187958383081 |
| 2025-12-17T20:24:34+08:00 | 840.3825686508613 |
| 2025-12-17T20:24:50+08:00 | 930.9334811529933 |
| 2025-12-17T22:16:43+08:00 | 946.5364148047075 |
| 2025-12-17T22:17:05+08:00 | 1035.5181647620673 |
| 2025-12-17T22:18:14+08:00 | 1056.5594405594406 |
| 2025-12-17T22:18:29+08:00 | 1180.7620672010917 |
| 2025-12-18T08:20:27+08:00 | 1207.9428620160327 |
| 2025-12-18T08:20:41+08:00 | 1207.9428620160327 |
| 2025-12-18T08:21:15+08:00 | 1285.2068906703053 |
| 2025-12-18T08:21:22+08:00 | 1948.2462902950708 |
| 2025-12-18T09:10:36+08:00 | 1965.8785604639263 |
| 2025-12-18T09:10:55+08:00 | 1989.7571209278526 |
| 2025-12-18T09:11:04+08:00 | 2186.738188640628 |
| 2025-12-18T10:23:19+08:00 | 2206.607879924953 |
| 2025-12-18T10:23:30+08:00 | 2496.561828415487 |
| 2025-12-18T10:23:57+08:00 | 2506.765478424015 |
| 2025-12-18T12:03:45+08:00 | 2510.176701347433 |
| 2025-12-18T14:10:30+08:00 | 2595.49 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 3074.09x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.491, 乙组 α=0.527) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
翰思艾泰－Ｂ中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 翰思艾泰－Ｂ（03378）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
