希迪智驾 03881
新股中签预测
14.3302.78%( -0.410 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
5.6亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
1.6亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
1.6亿 |
| 4 |  信诚 |
6000万 |
| 5 |  华泰 |
5326万 |
| 6 |  长桥 |
2708万 |
| 7 |  盈立 |
2478万 |
| 8 |  华盛 |
1655万 |
| 9 | 卓锐证券 | 1133万 |
| 11 |  艾德 |
232万 |
| 12 |  TradeGo |
101万 |
| 13 |  盈宝 |
9万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-11T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-12-11T10:00:05+08:00 | 0.007311586051743532 |
| 2025-12-11T10:08:58+08:00 | 0.2237064116985377 |
| 2025-12-11T10:09:11+08:00 | 0.3502530933633296 |
| 2025-12-11T11:05:57+08:00 | 0.3572834645669291 |
| 2025-12-11T11:06:56+08:00 | 0.37570303712035996 |
| 2025-12-11T11:07:18+08:00 | 0.7412823397075365 |
| 2025-12-11T11:50:55+08:00 | 0.7560461192350956 |
| 2025-12-11T12:02:10+08:00 | 0.7620922384701913 |
| 2025-12-11T12:09:41+08:00 | 0.7806524184476941 |
| 2025-12-11T12:10:02+08:00 | 0.7911979752530933 |
| 2025-12-11T12:10:22+08:00 | 0.875562429696288 |
| 2025-12-11T13:45:24+08:00 | 0.8799212598425197 |
| 2025-12-11T13:45:56+08:00 | 0.9295556805399325 |
| 2025-12-11T13:46:13+08:00 | 1.0982845894263218 |
| 2025-12-11T13:46:40+08:00 | 1.1022215973003375 |
| 2025-12-11T14:04:10+08:00 | 1.1062992125984252 |
| 2025-12-11T14:04:25+08:00 | 1.109533183352081 |
| 2025-12-11T14:04:56+08:00 | 1.139060742407199 |
| 2025-12-11T14:05:44+08:00 | 1.1671822272215973 |
| 2025-12-11T14:06:17+08:00 | 1.672665916760405 |
| 2025-12-11T15:24:24+08:00 | 1.7241282339707538 |
| 2025-12-11T15:24:39+08:00 | 1.7522497187851518 |
| 2025-12-11T15:24:55+08:00 | 1.7554836895388077 |
| 2025-12-11T15:25:30+08:00 | 1.9240719910011248 |
| 2025-12-11T15:45:42+08:00 | 2.064679415073116 |
| 2025-12-11T16:09:52+08:00 | 2.0665073115860517 |
| 2025-12-11T16:10:14+08:00 | 1.9641451068616422 |
| 2025-12-11T16:10:34+08:00 | 1.9790494938132734 |
| 2025-12-11T16:11:02+08:00 | 2.5555399325084363 |
| 2025-12-11T17:14:25+08:00 | 2.5598987626546683 |
| 2025-12-11T17:14:52+08:00 | 2.5701631046119235 |
| 2025-12-11T17:31:31+08:00 | 2.5912542182227223 |
| 2025-12-11T17:31:45+08:00 | 4.728487064116985 |
| 2025-12-11T18:01:04+08:00 | 4.7481721034870645 |
| 2025-12-11T18:01:56+08:00 | 4.830286839145107 |
| 2025-12-11T18:03:43+08:00 | 4.830708661417323 |
| 2025-12-11T18:03:57+08:00 | 4.835067491563555 |
| 2025-12-11T18:07:11+08:00 | 4.891310461192351 |
| 2025-12-11T20:07:05+08:00 | 4.891591676040495 |
| 2025-12-11T20:07:40+08:00 | 4.894544431946007 |
| 2025-12-11T20:08:00+08:00 | 4.7266591676040495 |
| 2025-12-11T20:08:20+08:00 | 4.767716535433071 |
| 2025-12-11T21:42:36+08:00 | 4.768419572553431 |
| 2025-12-11T21:42:55+08:00 | 4.7703880764904385 |
| 2025-12-11T22:03:19+08:00 | 4.7702474690663665 |
| 2025-12-11T22:03:39+08:00 | 4.804274465691789 |
| 2025-12-11T22:12:50+08:00 | 4.902699662542182 |
| 2025-12-12T07:33:21+08:00 | 4.903121484814398 |
| 2025-12-12T07:33:24+08:00 | 4.906496062992126 |
| 2025-12-12T07:33:29+08:00 | 4.913667041619798 |
| 2025-12-12T07:35:35+08:00 | 4.913667041619798 |
| 2025-12-12T08:21:11+08:00 | 4.93011811023622 |
| 2025-12-12T08:22:19+08:00 | 5.070725534308211 |
| 2025-12-12T09:30:38+08:00 | 5.125281214848144 |
| 2025-12-12T09:30:51+08:00 | 5.192632170978627 |
| 2025-12-12T09:31:01+08:00 | 5.193335208098987 |
| 2025-12-12T09:31:08+08:00 | 5.277699662542182 |
| 2025-12-12T10:16:31+08:00 | 5.280793025871766 |
| 2025-12-12T10:16:37+08:00 | 5.294431946006749 |
| 2025-12-12T10:16:44+08:00 | 5.3143982002249714 |
| 2025-12-12T10:16:50+08:00 | 5.384701912260967 |
| 2025-12-12T11:13:14+08:00 | 5.392575928008998 |
| 2025-12-12T11:14:29+08:00 | 5.402277840269966 |
| 2025-12-12T12:04:48+08:00 | 5.403824521934758 |
| 2025-12-12T12:05:42+08:00 | 5.40888638920135 |
| 2025-12-12T12:06:14+08:00 | 5.418447694038245 |
| 2025-12-12T12:06:45+08:00 | 5.460629921259843 |
| 2025-12-12T13:44:43+08:00 | 5.468785151856018 |
| 2025-12-12T13:45:01+08:00 | 5.159448818897638 |
| 2025-12-12T13:45:45+08:00 | 5.161698537682789 |
| 2025-12-12T13:46:05+08:00 | 5.162120359955006 |
| 2025-12-12T14:01:37+08:00 | 5.164510686164229 |
| 2025-12-12T14:03:37+08:00 | 5.203177727784027 |
| 2025-12-12T14:07:22+08:00 | 5.206411698537683 |
| 2025-12-12T14:07:34+08:00 | 5.2204724409448815 |
| 2025-12-12T14:08:35+08:00 | 5.256889763779528 |
| 2025-12-12T15:23:07+08:00 | 5.269825646794151 |
| 2025-12-12T15:23:41+08:00 | 5.27685601799775 |
| 2025-12-12T15:24:06+08:00 | 5.280089988751406 |
| 2025-12-12T15:24:49+08:00 | 5.294150731158605 |
| 2025-12-12T16:11:32+08:00 | 5.296962879640045 |
| 2025-12-12T16:12:26+08:00 | 5.300196850393701 |
| 2025-12-12T16:12:49+08:00 | 5.328318335208099 |
| 2025-12-12T16:13:49+08:00 | 5.353065241844769 |
| 2025-12-12T16:15:14+08:00 | 5.915494938132733 |
| 2025-12-12T17:19:59+08:00 | 5.902137232845894 |
| 2025-12-12T17:20:22+08:00 | 5.904949381327334 |
| 2025-12-12T17:21:34+08:00 | 5.905652418447694 |
| 2025-12-12T17:22:01+08:00 | 5.750984251968504 |
| 2025-12-12T17:35:10+08:00 | 6.074381327334083 |
| 2025-12-12T18:00:44+08:00 | 6.075084364454443 |
| 2025-12-12T18:11:34+08:00 | 6.082536557930259 |
| 2025-12-12T18:11:57+08:00 | 6.146512935883015 |
| 2025-12-12T18:12:09+08:00 | 6.188695163104612 |
| 2025-12-12T18:13:38+08:00 | 6.1951631046119235 |
| 2025-12-12T20:20:01+08:00 | 6.195584926884139 |
| 2025-12-12T20:21:45+08:00 | 6.230455568053993 |
| 2025-12-12T20:22:08+08:00 | 6.385123734533184 |
| 2025-12-12T20:23:02+08:00 | 6.385264341957256 |
| 2025-12-12T20:23:29+08:00 | 6.389482564679415 |
| 2025-12-12T20:23:38+08:00 | 6.431664791901013 |
| 2025-12-12T21:11:18+08:00 | 6.437007874015748 |
| 2025-12-12T22:19:34+08:00 | 6.437289088863892 |
| 2025-12-12T22:19:54+08:00 | 6.401715410573678 |
| 2025-12-12T22:20:05+08:00 | 6.5704443194600675 |
| 2025-12-13T10:37:02+08:00 | 6.5704443194600675 |
| 2025-12-13T10:38:53+08:00 | 6.611361079865017 |
| 2025-12-13T10:39:25+08:00 | 6.611782902137233 |
| 2025-12-13T10:40:36+08:00 | 6.60376827896513 |
| 2025-12-13T10:40:57+08:00 | 6.610517435320585 |
| 2025-12-13T10:41:23+08:00 | 6.661839145106861 |
| 2025-12-13T10:41:46+08:00 | 6.662120359955006 |
| 2025-12-13T10:42:07+08:00 | 6.521512935883015 |
| 2025-12-13T11:35:15+08:00 | 6.53740157480315 |
| 2025-12-13T11:36:05+08:00 | 6.537823397075366 |
| 2025-12-13T14:45:23+08:00 | 6.575928008998875 |
| 2025-12-13T14:46:40+08:00 | 6.576912260967379 |
| 2025-12-13T14:47:37+08:00 | 6.577474690663667 |
| 2025-12-13T14:48:17+08:00 | 6.943053993250843 |
| 2025-12-13T15:59:07+08:00 | 6.943335208098987 |
| 2025-12-13T16:00:06+08:00 | 6.944600674915636 |
| 2025-12-13T16:00:13+08:00 | 6.958661417322834 |
| 2025-12-13T16:00:25+08:00 | 6.959223847019123 |
| 2025-12-13T16:45:43+08:00 | 6.959786276715411 |
| 2025-12-13T17:56:57+08:00 | 6.960067491563555 |
| 2025-12-13T17:57:37+08:00 | 6.960629921259843 |
| 2025-12-13T17:57:46+08:00 | 7.410573678290214 |
| 2025-12-13T18:28:32+08:00 | 7.4111361079865015 |
| 2025-12-13T18:29:14+08:00 | 7.411276715410573 |
| 2025-12-13T18:29:24+08:00 | 7.411839145106861 |
| 2025-12-13T19:22:22+08:00 | 7.411979752530933 |
| 2025-12-13T19:23:08+08:00 | 7.412682789651294 |
| 2025-12-13T20:14:37+08:00 | 7.41310461192351 |
| 2025-12-13T22:16:03+08:00 | 7.413245219347582 |
| 2025-12-13T22:16:45+08:00 | 7.90537120359955 |
| 2025-12-14T10:14:11+08:00 | 7.975674915635546 |
| 2025-12-14T10:15:01+08:00 | 7.990860517435321 |
| 2025-12-14T10:20:54+08:00 | 8.00843644544432 |
| 2025-12-14T12:45:50+08:00 | 8.022497187851519 |
| 2025-12-14T12:47:05+08:00 | 8.053852643419573 |
| 2025-12-14T12:47:10+08:00 | 8.09181664791901 |
| 2025-12-14T12:50:31+08:00 | 8.092238470191226 |
| 2025-12-14T12:50:52+08:00 | 8.090269966254219 |
| 2025-12-14T15:48:46+08:00 | 8.090551181102363 |
| 2025-12-14T15:49:09+08:00 | 8.097300337457817 |
| 2025-12-14T15:53:35+08:00 | 8.111361079865016 |
| 2025-12-14T15:58:40+08:00 | 8.111782902137232 |
| 2025-12-14T15:58:46+08:00 | 8.11304836895388 |
| 2025-12-14T15:58:50+08:00 | 8.113892013498313 |
| 2025-12-14T16:06:53+08:00 | 8.11431383577053 |
| 2025-12-14T16:06:58+08:00 | 8.118110236220472 |
| 2025-12-14T16:07:02+08:00 | 8.118391451068616 |
| 2025-12-14T16:10:11+08:00 | 8.137092238470192 |
| 2025-12-14T16:10:47+08:00 | 8.16521372328459 |
| 2025-12-14T21:02:24+08:00 | 8.165354330708661 |
| 2025-12-14T21:02:28+08:00 | 8.165635545556805 |
| 2025-12-14T21:02:32+08:00 | 8.277980877390327 |
| 2025-12-14T21:02:37+08:00 | 8.279808773903262 |
| 2025-12-14T21:11:44+08:00 | 8.280793025871766 |
| 2025-12-14T21:12:32+08:00 | 8.281214848143982 |
| 2025-12-14T21:14:26+08:00 | 8.28318335208099 |
| 2025-12-15T08:42:36+08:00 | 8.285573678290215 |
| 2025-12-15T08:42:39+08:00 | 8.285714285714286 |
| 2025-12-15T08:44:38+08:00 | 8.292744656917884 |
| 2025-12-15T08:46:11+08:00 | 8.53177727784027 |
| 2025-12-15T08:47:53+08:00 | 8.53177727784027 |
| 2025-12-15T09:18:07+08:00 | 8.548931383577052 |
| 2025-12-15T09:18:25+08:00 | 8.549212598425196 |
| 2025-12-15T09:18:47+08:00 | 8.732002249718786 |
| 2025-12-15T09:19:49+08:00 | 8.816366704161979 |
| 2025-12-15T09:21:12+08:00 | 8.848284589426322 |
| 2025-12-15T09:22:07+08:00 | 8.895247469066367 |
| 2025-12-15T10:16:39+08:00 | 8.931242969628796 |
| 2025-12-15T10:17:04+08:00 | 8.949943757030372 |
| 2025-12-15T10:18:20+08:00 | 9.037823397075366 |
| 2025-12-15T10:18:43+08:00 | 9.361220472440944 |
| 2025-12-15T11:15:33+08:00 | 9.370922384701911 |
| 2025-12-15T11:16:53+08:00 | 9.4392575928009 |
| 2025-12-15T11:17:52+08:00 | 9.440241844769403 |
| 2025-12-15T11:18:45+08:00 | 9.66521372328459 |
| 2025-12-15T12:05:05+08:00 | 9.688132733408324 |
| 2025-12-15T12:06:27+08:00 | 9.689116985376828 |
| 2025-12-15T12:07:35+08:00 | 9.705005624296962 |
| 2025-12-15T12:08:04+08:00 | 9.226940382452193 |
| 2025-12-15T13:45:16+08:00 | 9.229049493813273 |
| 2025-12-15T13:46:43+08:00 | 9.275731158605174 |
| 2025-12-15T13:47:38+08:00 | 9.261670416197974 |
| 2025-12-15T13:50:34+08:00 | 9.265044994375703 |
| 2025-12-15T13:51:35+08:00 | 9.293166479190102 |
| 2025-12-15T14:01:34+08:00 | 9.296822272215973 |
| 2025-12-15T14:03:22+08:00 | 8.861079865016873 |
| 2025-12-15T14:08:08+08:00 | 8.902699662542183 |
| 2025-12-15T14:08:34+08:00 | 8.874578177727784 |
| 2025-12-15T14:09:48+08:00 | 8.880764904386952 |
| 2025-12-15T15:09:47+08:00 | 8.883014623172103 |
| 2025-12-15T15:11:25+08:00 | 8.921119235095613 |
| 2025-12-15T15:12:18+08:00 | 8.943194600674916 |
| 2025-12-15T15:12:50+08:00 | 9.772778402699663 |
| 2025-12-15T15:31:42+08:00 | 9.913385826771654 |
| 2025-12-15T16:09:53+08:00 | 9.941366704161979 |
| 2025-12-15T16:10:23+08:00 | 9.899184476940382 |
| 2025-12-15T17:12:46+08:00 | 10.212035995500562 |
| 2025-12-15T17:14:12+08:00 | 10.54949381327334 |
| 2025-12-15T17:20:17+08:00 | 10.901012373453318 |
| 2025-12-15T18:09:07+08:00 | 10.92941507311586 |
| 2025-12-15T18:09:18+08:00 | 11.449662542182228 |
| 2025-12-15T18:11:38+08:00 | 11.5572272215973 |
| 2025-12-15T20:16:12+08:00 | 11.741844769403825 |
| 2025-12-15T20:16:40+08:00 | 11.755905511811024 |
| 2025-12-15T20:17:17+08:00 | 11.924634420697412 |
| 2025-12-15T22:15:23+08:00 | 12.021794150731159 |
| 2025-12-15T22:15:47+08:00 | 12.331130483689538 |
| 2025-12-15T22:16:22+08:00 | 12.499859392575928 |
| 2025-12-16T08:56:44+08:00 | 11.740579302587177 |
| 2025-12-16T08:57:55+08:00 | 11.888638920134984 |
| 2025-12-16T08:58:26+08:00 | 12.929133858267717 |
| 2025-12-16T09:04:00+08:00 | 12.953037120359955 |
| 2025-12-16T09:05:33+08:00 | 14.049775028121484 |
| 2025-12-16T09:54:09+08:00 | 14.302868391451069 |
| 2025-12-16T09:55:00+08:00 | 14.387232845894264 |
| 2025-12-16T10:05:40+08:00 | 14.546541057367829 |
| 2025-12-16T10:07:12+08:00 | 14.734111361079865 |
| 2025-12-16T13:50:43+08:00 | 15.131467941507312 |
| 2025-12-16T17:44:29+08:00 | 15.18 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 22.55x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.576, 乙组 α=0.676) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
希迪智驾中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
18C特专科技
《主板规则》第18C章，为特专科技公司设立。机制A及机制B不适用。初订分配份额为5%，回补门槛：10倍至不足50倍→10%，50倍或以上→20%。根据第18C.08条，发售股份总数中至少50%须由配售部分的独立定价投资者认购。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 希迪智驾（03881）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
