卧安机器人 06600
新股中签预测
46.6806.64%( -3.320 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
257.2亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
55.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
35.6亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
17.3亿 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
6.0亿 |
| 6 |  长桥 |
4.1亿 |
| 7 |  信诚 |
3.0亿 |
| 8 | 卓锐证券 | 2.9亿 |
| 9 |  盈立 |
2.6亿 |
| 11 |  TradeGo |
1.7亿 |
| 12 |  艾德 |
6784万 |
| 13 |  盈宝 |
828万 |
| 14 |  Funderstone |
405万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-18T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-12-18T10:25:57+08:00 | 0.002666518526748514 |
| 2025-12-18T11:09:57+08:00 | 0.24104216432420422 |
| 2025-12-18T11:11:31+08:00 | 0.9632242653185934 |
| 2025-12-18T11:35:16+08:00 | 1.018776734625854 |
| 2025-12-18T12:03:38+08:00 | 2.7816232431531582 |
| 2025-12-18T12:05:48+08:00 | 2.9345591911560467 |
| 2025-12-18T12:06:19+08:00 | 4.190044997500139 |
| 2025-12-18T13:48:48+08:00 | 4.495583578690073 |
| 2025-12-18T13:49:30+08:00 | 4.5517471251597135 |
| 2025-12-18T13:50:18+08:00 | 4.564468640631076 |
| 2025-12-18T14:03:56+08:00 | 4.669351702683184 |
| 2025-12-18T14:04:31+08:00 | 4.670962724293095 |
| 2025-12-18T14:06:10+08:00 | 5.126492972612633 |
| 2025-12-18T14:09:06+08:00 | 5.3089272818176765 |
| 2025-12-18T14:48:36+08:00 | 5.364479751124938 |
| 2025-12-18T15:31:55+08:00 | 5.388256207988445 |
| 2025-12-18T15:32:27+08:00 | 5.388478417865674 |
| 2025-12-18T15:33:44+08:00 | 5.966224098661185 |
| 2025-12-18T16:57:18+08:00 | 5.966446308538415 |
| 2025-12-18T16:58:02+08:00 | 5.968835064718626 |
| 2025-12-18T16:58:46+08:00 | 6.1132714849175045 |
| 2025-12-18T17:01:07+08:00 | 6.1203266485195265 |
| 2025-12-18T17:05:34+08:00 | 6.1678240097772346 |
| 2025-12-18T17:06:55+08:00 | 6.8011221598800065 |
| 2025-12-18T17:34:46+08:00 | 7.38997833453697 |
| 2025-12-18T18:11:08+08:00 | 7.528859507805122 |
| 2025-12-18T18:11:37+08:00 | 7.52930392755958 |
| 2025-12-18T18:12:23+08:00 | 7.666518526748514 |
| 2025-12-18T18:13:46+08:00 | 8.449808343980889 |
| 2025-12-18T18:17:47+08:00 | 9.111771568246208 |
| 2025-12-18T20:25:22+08:00 | 9.11193822565413 |
| 2025-12-18T20:26:11+08:00 | 9.203322037664574 |
| 2025-12-18T20:27:11+08:00 | 10.179156713515916 |
| 2025-12-18T20:27:37+08:00 | 10.226598522304316 |
| 2025-12-18T20:28:27+08:00 | 10.704349758346758 |
| 2025-12-18T20:28:44+08:00 | 10.893228153991444 |
| 2025-12-18T21:38:09+08:00 | 10.966835175823565 |
| 2025-12-18T21:38:41+08:00 | 10.980278873395923 |
| 2025-12-18T21:39:14+08:00 | 11.113604799733348 |
| 2025-12-18T22:06:14+08:00 | 11.17621243264263 |
| 2025-12-18T22:06:48+08:00 | 11.267540692183768 |
| 2025-12-18T22:07:17+08:00 | 11.345314149213932 |
| 2025-12-19T08:38:56+08:00 | 11.454752513749236 |
| 2025-12-19T08:40:31+08:00 | 12.499138936725737 |
| 2025-12-19T08:42:44+08:00 | 12.698794511416033 |
| 2025-12-19T08:46:43+08:00 | 12.698794511416033 |
| 2025-12-19T09:03:26+08:00 | 12.718626742958724 |
| 2025-12-19T09:04:02+08:00 | 12.59096716849064 |
| 2025-12-19T09:06:53+08:00 | 12.54291428253986 |
| 2025-12-19T09:07:27+08:00 | 12.292928170657186 |
| 2025-12-19T09:10:25+08:00 | 12.511027165157492 |
| 2025-12-19T09:39:38+08:00 | 12.788789511693794 |
| 2025-12-19T10:14:28+08:00 | 12.792455974668075 |
| 2025-12-19T10:15:36+08:00 | 12.746847397366812 |
| 2025-12-19T10:15:58+08:00 | 12.78745625243042 |
| 2025-12-19T10:16:20+08:00 | 13.49297261263263 |
| 2025-12-19T11:08:05+08:00 | 13.452085995222488 |
| 2025-12-19T11:08:53+08:00 | 13.51369368368424 |
| 2025-12-19T11:11:01+08:00 | 14.158102327648464 |
| 2025-12-19T12:04:36+08:00 | 12.708127326259651 |
| 2025-12-19T12:04:39+08:00 | 12.710238320093328 |
| 2025-12-19T12:05:40+08:00 | 12.721904338647853 |
| 2025-12-19T12:06:47+08:00 | 13.749625020832177 |
| 2025-12-19T13:42:15+08:00 | 13.77390144991945 |
| 2025-12-19T13:43:29+08:00 | 13.79556691294928 |
| 2025-12-19T13:44:05+08:00 | 14.201099938892284 |
| 2025-12-19T13:44:27+08:00 | 14.256652408199544 |
| 2025-12-19T14:09:27+08:00 | 14.27581801011055 |
| 2025-12-19T14:10:00+08:00 | 14.30803844230876 |
| 2025-12-19T14:10:24+08:00 | 14.469140603299817 |
| 2025-12-19T14:11:03+08:00 | 14.428253985889674 |
| 2025-12-19T14:13:36+08:00 | 14.535414699183379 |
| 2025-12-19T15:08:31+08:00 | 14.56074662518749 |
| 2025-12-19T15:09:06+08:00 | 14.587856230209432 |
| 2025-12-19T15:09:28+08:00 | 14.898950058330092 |
| 2025-12-19T16:00:49+08:00 | 14.931948225098605 |
| 2025-12-19T16:01:13+08:00 | 15.431920448863952 |
| 2025-12-19T16:04:14+08:00 | 15.425365257485696 |
| 2025-12-19T16:04:45+08:00 | 15.473862563190934 |
| 2025-12-19T16:05:45+08:00 | 15.73495916893506 |
| 2025-12-19T17:03:25+08:00 | 15.710682739847787 |
| 2025-12-19T17:03:54+08:00 | 15.735014721404367 |
| 2025-12-19T17:05:02+08:00 | 16.529581689906117 |
| 2025-12-19T17:05:52+08:00 | 20.423809788345093 |
| 2025-12-19T17:37:41+08:00 | 20.701572134881395 |
| 2025-12-19T17:38:29+08:00 | 21.679295594689183 |
| 2025-12-19T18:10:03+08:00 | 21.67874006999611 |
| 2025-12-19T18:10:47+08:00 | 21.915393589245042 |
| 2025-12-19T18:11:17+08:00 | 22.33525915226932 |
| 2025-12-19T18:11:53+08:00 | 25.112882617632355 |
| 2025-12-19T18:21:14+08:00 | 26.043108716182434 |
| 2025-12-19T20:20:17+08:00 | 26.043942003222043 |
| 2025-12-19T20:21:03+08:00 | 26.100438864507527 |
| 2025-12-19T20:21:20+08:00 | 26.36059107827343 |
| 2025-12-19T20:21:56+08:00 | 27.338314538081217 |
| 2025-12-19T20:22:32+08:00 | 27.462918726737403 |
| 2025-12-19T20:22:52+08:00 | 27.663074273651464 |
| 2025-12-19T20:23:21+08:00 | 28.41858785623021 |
| 2025-12-19T22:20:34+08:00 | 28.427754013665908 |
| 2025-12-19T22:20:48+08:00 | 28.430253874784736 |
| 2025-12-19T22:21:17+08:00 | 28.55158046775179 |
| 2025-12-19T22:21:37+08:00 | 28.61063274262541 |
| 2025-12-19T22:22:09+08:00 | 29.39947780678851 |
| 2025-12-19T22:22:26+08:00 | 30.110549413921447 |
| 2025-12-19T23:05:50+08:00 | 30.677795678017887 |
| 2025-12-19T23:06:29+08:00 | 30.729626131881563 |
| 2025-12-20T10:12:34+08:00 | 30.91383812010444 |
| 2025-12-20T10:20:21+08:00 | 31.425531914893618 |
| 2025-12-20T10:25:02+08:00 | 34.38647852897061 |
| 2025-12-20T10:25:06+08:00 | 34.792011554913614 |
| 2025-12-20T10:25:10+08:00 | 37.00299983334259 |
| 2025-12-20T10:29:06+08:00 | 37.345425254152545 |
| 2025-12-20T10:29:10+08:00 | 37.347036275762456 |
| 2025-12-20T10:33:56+08:00 | 37.347036275762456 |
| 2025-12-20T12:34:45+08:00 | 37.34442530970502 |
| 2025-12-20T12:34:49+08:00 | 37.41847675129159 |
| 2025-12-20T12:37:23+08:00 | 38.407310704960835 |
| 2025-12-20T12:37:50+08:00 | 38.69062829842787 |
| 2025-12-20T12:40:08+08:00 | 38.6970168323982 |
| 2025-12-20T12:40:33+08:00 | 38.722959835564694 |
| 2025-12-20T12:41:12+08:00 | 38.72929281706572 |
| 2025-12-20T12:41:20+08:00 | 38.740903283150935 |
| 2025-12-20T15:51:27+08:00 | 38.75073607021832 |
| 2025-12-20T15:51:55+08:00 | 38.751069385034164 |
| 2025-12-20T15:53:06+08:00 | 38.79162268762847 |
| 2025-12-20T15:53:10+08:00 | 38.755069162824284 |
| 2025-12-20T15:53:14+08:00 | 38.765957446808514 |
| 2025-12-20T15:56:05+08:00 | 39.01038831176046 |
| 2025-12-20T15:56:09+08:00 | 39.50480528859508 |
| 2025-12-20T15:56:13+08:00 | 39.79367812899283 |
| 2025-12-20T15:58:08+08:00 | 39.79428920615521 |
| 2025-12-20T15:58:12+08:00 | 39.799011166046334 |
| 2025-12-20T15:58:16+08:00 | 39.798788956169105 |
| 2025-12-20T16:00:46+08:00 | 39.822454308093995 |
| 2025-12-20T21:43:27+08:00 | 39.8836731292706 |
| 2025-12-20T21:43:32+08:00 | 39.8959502249875 |
| 2025-12-20T21:43:38+08:00 | 39.89939447808455 |
| 2025-12-20T21:43:43+08:00 | 39.90706071884895 |
| 2025-12-20T21:43:48+08:00 | 39.908560635520246 |
| 2025-12-20T21:49:37+08:00 | 39.989556135770236 |
| 2025-12-20T21:49:42+08:00 | 40.00144436420199 |
| 2025-12-20T21:49:52+08:00 | 40.056107994000335 |
| 2025-12-20T21:49:57+08:00 | 40.15171379367813 |
| 2025-12-20T21:50:02+08:00 | 40.157657907894006 |
| 2025-12-20T21:50:08+08:00 | 40.154102549858344 |
| 2025-12-20T21:53:08+08:00 | 40.51519360035554 |
| 2025-12-20T21:53:13+08:00 | 40.95961335481362 |
| 2025-12-20T21:53:17+08:00 | 41.448475084717515 |
| 2025-12-20T21:53:22+08:00 | 42.12065996333537 |
| 2025-12-20T21:53:26+08:00 | 42.181767679573355 |
| 2025-12-20T21:53:32+08:00 | 42.6595189156158 |
| 2025-12-20T21:57:25+08:00 | 42.660407755124716 |
| 2025-12-20T21:57:33+08:00 | 42.66362979834454 |
| 2025-12-20T21:57:37+08:00 | 42.68035109160602 |
| 2025-12-20T22:05:48+08:00 | 42.67751791567135 |
| 2025-12-20T22:08:11+08:00 | 43.10282762068774 |
| 2025-12-20T22:08:54+08:00 | 43.375034720293314 |
| 2025-12-21T10:05:30+08:00 | 43.40564413088162 |
| 2025-12-21T10:06:36+08:00 | 44.421032164879726 |
| 2025-12-21T10:08:46+08:00 | 44.46358535636909 |
| 2025-12-21T10:09:34+08:00 | 46.046830731626024 |
| 2025-12-21T10:10:02+08:00 | 46.346814065885226 |
| 2025-12-21T10:10:19+08:00 | 47.15232487084051 |
| 2025-12-21T12:23:20+08:00 | 47.15621354369202 |
| 2025-12-21T12:23:45+08:00 | 47.206488528415086 |
| 2025-12-21T12:24:42+08:00 | 47.45936336870174 |
| 2025-12-21T12:25:12+08:00 | 47.67046275206933 |
| 2025-12-21T12:25:33+08:00 | 48.06488528415088 |
| 2025-12-21T16:30:51+08:00 | 48.09088383978668 |
| 2025-12-21T16:32:19+08:00 | 48.122437642353205 |
| 2025-12-21T16:33:26+08:00 | 48.38131214932504 |
| 2025-12-21T16:35:00+08:00 | 49.686795178045664 |
| 2025-12-21T16:35:23+08:00 | 50.114549191711575 |
| 2025-12-21T18:12:37+08:00 | 50.1178267874007 |
| 2025-12-21T18:12:57+08:00 | 50.11904894172546 |
| 2025-12-21T18:13:05+08:00 | 50.11943780901061 |
| 2025-12-21T18:13:58+08:00 | 50.30314982500972 |
| 2025-12-21T18:14:35+08:00 | 50.49758346758514 |
| 2025-12-21T18:14:55+08:00 | 50.464251986000775 |
| 2025-12-21T20:08:36+08:00 | 50.46452974834732 |
| 2025-12-21T20:08:59+08:00 | 50.48058441197711 |
| 2025-12-21T20:09:12+08:00 | 50.49602799844453 |
| 2025-12-21T20:09:39+08:00 | 50.78490083884228 |
| 2025-12-21T20:10:12+08:00 | 50.785289706127436 |
| 2025-12-21T20:10:22+08:00 | 50.87156269096161 |
| 2025-12-21T20:10:51+08:00 | 51.060441086606296 |
| 2025-12-21T21:09:20+08:00 | 51.12999277817899 |
| 2025-12-21T21:09:36+08:00 | 51.225820787734015 |
| 2025-12-21T21:10:18+08:00 | 52.103549802788734 |
| 2025-12-21T22:11:36+08:00 | 52.118993389256154 |
| 2025-12-21T22:11:59+08:00 | 52.24537525693017 |
| 2025-12-21T22:12:36+08:00 | 52.60646630742737 |
| 2025-12-22T08:59:11+08:00 | 52.78256763513138 |
| 2025-12-22T08:59:14+08:00 | 52.95461363257597 |
| 2025-12-22T09:00:43+08:00 | 55.52113771457141 |
| 2025-12-22T09:01:32+08:00 | 55.542358757846785 |
| 2025-12-22T09:02:04+08:00 | 55.542358757846785 |
| 2025-12-22T09:05:11+08:00 | 55.84895283595356 |
| 2025-12-22T09:06:22+08:00 | 56.05466362979834 |
| 2025-12-22T09:07:53+08:00 | 57.97677906782957 |
| 2025-12-22T10:04:57+08:00 | 59.08782845397478 |
| 2025-12-22T10:05:41+08:00 | 59.09743903116494 |
| 2025-12-22T10:06:26+08:00 | 59.08905060829954 |
| 2025-12-22T10:06:52+08:00 | 59.2548191767124 |
| 2025-12-22T10:07:30+08:00 | 62.72129326148547 |
| 2025-12-22T11:10:13+08:00 | 62.738292317093496 |
| 2025-12-22T11:10:56+08:00 | 62.98961168823954 |
| 2025-12-22T11:11:36+08:00 | 63.95755791344925 |
| 2025-12-22T11:12:33+08:00 | 66.77406810732737 |
| 2025-12-22T12:21:21+08:00 | 66.77267929559468 |
| 2025-12-22T12:22:12+08:00 | 67.14076995722459 |
| 2025-12-22T12:23:11+08:00 | 70.15726904060885 |
| 2025-12-22T12:24:18+08:00 | 70.15032498194545 |
| 2025-12-22T13:51:51+08:00 | 72.15021387700683 |
| 2025-12-22T13:52:23+08:00 | 72.23248708405089 |
| 2025-12-22T13:52:44+08:00 | 72.25837453474807 |
| 2025-12-22T13:53:37+08:00 | 72.33075940225542 |
| 2025-12-22T14:03:05+08:00 | 72.35842453197044 |
| 2025-12-22T14:04:08+08:00 | 72.36742403199823 |
| 2025-12-22T14:05:30+08:00 | 72.86056330203877 |
| 2025-12-22T14:06:15+08:00 | 77.04921948780623 |
| 2025-12-22T14:08:56+08:00 | 79.93867007388478 |
| 2025-12-22T15:20:16+08:00 | 79.93028165101938 |
| 2025-12-22T15:21:06+08:00 | 80.01499916671295 |
| 2025-12-22T15:24:26+08:00 | 80.50597189045052 |
| 2025-12-22T15:25:14+08:00 | 82.85028609521693 |
| 2025-12-22T16:05:05+08:00 | 83.3174268096217 |
| 2025-12-22T16:07:24+08:00 | 87.28942836509083 |
| 2025-12-22T16:08:31+08:00 | 88.40047775123604 |
| 2025-12-22T17:11:54+08:00 | 88.4085328592856 |
| 2025-12-22T17:12:49+08:00 | 89.61979890006111 |
| 2025-12-22T17:13:48+08:00 | 95.17504583078718 |
| 2025-12-22T17:17:10+08:00 | 111.94078106771846 |
| 2025-12-22T17:59:21+08:00 | 112.32964835286928 |
| 2025-12-22T18:00:42+08:00 | 113.94244764179768 |
| 2025-12-22T18:08:31+08:00 | 114.4659741125493 |
| 2025-12-22T18:09:13+08:00 | 118.09355035831342 |
| 2025-12-22T18:13:52+08:00 | 119.09277262374313 |
| 2025-12-22T19:58:28+08:00 | 119.09632798177878 |
| 2025-12-22T19:58:48+08:00 | 119.6098550080551 |
| 2025-12-22T19:59:24+08:00 | 123.58741181045498 |
| 2025-12-22T20:04:39+08:00 | 123.5944114215877 |
| 2025-12-22T20:04:57+08:00 | 123.63979778901172 |
| 2025-12-22T20:05:32+08:00 | 128.53397033498138 |
| 2025-12-22T21:31:10+08:00 | 128.53747014054775 |
| 2025-12-22T21:31:28+08:00 | 128.31420476640187 |
| 2025-12-22T21:32:05+08:00 | 132.57507916226876 |
| 2025-12-22T22:09:56+08:00 | 132.57935670240542 |
| 2025-12-22T22:10:14+08:00 | 133.2341536581301 |
| 2025-12-22T22:10:45+08:00 | 139.1393811454919 |
| 2025-12-23T08:48:21+08:00 | 139.15288039553357 |
| 2025-12-23T08:48:28+08:00 | 140.26420754402534 |
| 2025-12-23T08:48:42+08:00 | 140.2707627354036 |
| 2025-12-23T08:48:57+08:00 | 140.2707627354036 |
| 2025-12-23T08:49:03+08:00 | 140.27648463974225 |
| 2025-12-23T08:49:17+08:00 | 140.27587356257985 |
| 2025-12-23T08:49:24+08:00 | 140.276262429865 |
| 2025-12-23T08:49:38+08:00 | 140.27831787122938 |
| 2025-12-23T08:49:45+08:00 | 144.9792233764791 |
| 2025-12-23T08:49:52+08:00 | 179.15510249430588 |
| 2025-12-23T09:08:17+08:00 | 179.87961779901116 |
| 2025-12-23T09:08:25+08:00 | 187.11254930281652 |
| 2025-12-23T10:08:25+08:00 | 188.16804621965446 |
| 2025-12-23T10:08:37+08:00 | 188.16804621965446 |
| 2025-12-23T10:08:45+08:00 | 188.35398033442587 |
| 2025-12-23T10:08:52+08:00 | 197.77012388200654 |
| 2025-12-23T11:00:18+08:00 | 201.40997722348757 |
| 2025-12-23T11:07:30+08:00 | 213.63152047108494 |
| 2025-12-23T11:33:32+08:00 | 213.21321037720128 |
| 2025-12-23T16:47:50+08:00 | 214.6 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 254.5x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.601, 乙组 α=0.701) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
卧安机器人中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 卧安机器人（06600）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
