孖展动态 孖展倍数525.47x 孖展资金3700.9亿 捷利预测倍数672.6x
排名 券商 孖展资金
1 富途证券富途 2212.8亿
2 辉立证券辉立 792.0亿
3 老虎国际老虎 343.9亿
4 华泰国际华泰 127.1亿
5 招银国际招银 92.0亿
6 华盛证券华盛 45.0亿
7 信诚证券信诚 20.0亿
8 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 16.3亿
9 盈立证券盈立 15.8亿
孖展倍数
时间倍数
2026-01-30T06:00:00+08:000
2026-01-30T10:16:03+08:000.006105352832599744
2026-01-30T10:16:10+08:000.047877325003549624
2026-01-30T10:16:24+08:000.05497657248331677
2026-01-30T10:16:30+08:000.05952009087036774
2026-01-30T11:07:23+08:000.11811727956836575
2026-01-30T11:08:12+08:000.5859718869799801
2026-01-30T11:09:19+08:001.8922334232571347
2026-01-30T11:30:53+08:001.903265653840693
2026-01-30T12:14:37+08:001.9245066023001562
2026-01-30T12:15:21+08:001.9535851199772825
2026-01-30T12:15:59+08:003.386213261394292
2026-01-30T13:42:57+08:003.3925457901462446
2026-01-30T13:43:49+08:003.56189123952861
2026-01-30T13:44:30+08:005.387817691324719
2026-01-30T13:49:52+08:005.387888683799518
2026-01-30T14:03:22+08:005.413871929575465
2026-01-30T14:04:00+08:006.1066732926309815
2026-01-30T14:05:58+08:007.106247337782195
2026-01-30T14:09:26+08:007.177225614084907
2026-01-30T15:09:56+08:007.295101519238961
2026-01-30T15:12:00+08:007.3035212267499645
2026-01-30T15:12:50+08:008.524591793269913
2026-01-30T15:48:05+08:008.574002555729093
2026-01-30T15:54:58+08:008.715987505324435
2026-01-30T16:07:31+08:008.794050830611955
2026-01-30T16:08:06+08:008.86889109754366
2026-01-30T16:09:37+08:0010.318557432912112
2026-01-30T17:10:49+08:0010.32348431066307
2026-01-30T17:11:38+08:0010.382890813573761
2026-01-30T17:13:18+08:0011.665014908419707
2026-01-30T18:09:41+08:0011.665142694874344
2026-01-30T18:11:29+08:0013.5109470396138
2026-01-30T18:11:38+08:0014.078886837995173
2026-01-30T18:12:53+08:0014.08595768848502
2026-01-30T18:13:39+08:0014.3061053528326
2026-01-30T18:15:00+08:0014.821510719863694
2026-01-30T18:19:43+08:0015.703251455345733
2026-01-30T19:58:36+08:0015.733891807468408
2026-01-30T19:58:49+08:0015.776487292347012
2026-01-30T19:59:37+08:0015.938335936390743
2026-01-30T20:00:38+08:0016.553130768138576
2026-01-30T20:03:55+08:0016.579440579298595
2026-01-30T20:05:33+08:0017.013914525060343
2026-01-30T21:21:30+08:0017.05463580860429
2026-01-30T21:22:26+08:0017.401079085616924
2026-01-30T22:03:34+08:0017.419679114013913
2026-01-30T22:05:55+08:0017.933664631549057
2026-01-31T10:34:12+08:0017.621411330398978
2026-01-31T10:34:24+08:0017.621539116853615
2026-01-31T10:34:45+08:0017.621539116853615
2026-01-31T10:35:22+08:0018.124080647451372
2026-01-31T10:35:32+08:0020.489549907709783
2026-01-31T10:35:40+08:0020.565625443702967
2026-01-31T10:36:13+08:0020.57012636660514
2026-01-31T10:36:26+08:0020.841317620332244
2026-01-31T10:36:37+08:0020.846187704103365
2026-01-31T10:37:07+08:0020.88141417009797
2026-01-31T10:37:32+08:0021.232116995598467
2026-01-31T11:08:54+08:0021.233210279710352
2026-01-31T11:09:24+08:0021.24509441999148
2026-01-31T11:12:41+08:0021.412636660513986
2026-01-31T13:32:18+08:0021.41587391736476
2026-01-31T13:33:42+08:0021.44049410762459
2026-01-31T13:35:54+08:0021.53846372284538
2026-01-31T13:36:03+08:0021.54397273888968
2026-01-31T13:36:31+08:0021.707255430924324
2026-01-31T16:26:40+08:0021.707511003833595
2026-01-31T16:28:16+08:0021.709058639784182
2026-01-31T16:31:10+08:0021.768763311089025
2026-01-31T16:33:43+08:0022.602214965213687
2026-01-31T16:34:01+08:0022.89612381087605
2026-01-31T18:30:56+08:0022.897614652846798
2026-01-31T18:32:51+08:0022.919622320034076
2026-01-31T18:35:31+08:0023.388172653698707
2026-01-31T18:35:55+08:0023.53867670026977
2026-01-31T20:25:32+08:0023.53931563254295
2026-01-31T20:28:50+08:0023.57742439301434
2026-01-31T20:29:44+08:0023.607241232429363
2026-01-31T20:30:04+08:0023.764844526480193
2026-01-31T21:25:31+08:0023.788627005537414
2026-01-31T21:26:16+08:0024.14784892801363
2026-02-01T10:25:33+08:0024.148090302427942
2026-02-01T10:30:43+08:0024.15418145676558
2026-02-01T10:31:50+08:0024.698679539968765
2026-02-01T10:34:45+08:0025.88567371858583
2026-02-01T10:35:08+08:0025.986483032798525
2026-02-01T13:30:15+08:0025.98720715604146
2026-02-01T13:30:45+08:0025.987718301860003
2026-02-01T13:31:10+08:0025.988470822092857
2026-02-01T13:31:39+08:0026.06065597046713
2026-02-01T13:32:15+08:0026.10096549765725
2026-02-01T13:32:40+08:0026.128524776373705
2026-02-01T13:36:50+08:0026.484906999858016
2026-02-01T13:37:11+08:0026.74331960812154
2026-02-01T13:37:29+08:0026.95771688201051
2026-02-01T16:32:10+08:0026.96159307113446
2026-02-01T16:38:46+08:0027.10942780065313
2026-02-01T16:40:05+08:0027.109612381087604
2026-02-01T16:40:14+08:0027.109924747976713
2026-02-01T16:41:10+08:0027.383955700695726
2026-02-01T16:41:33+08:0027.852506034360356
2026-02-01T19:41:08+08:0027.852633820814994
2026-02-01T19:41:20+08:0027.85276160726963
2026-02-01T19:43:26+08:0027.855899474655686
2026-02-01T19:46:10+08:0028.410947039613802
2026-02-01T19:47:02+08:0029.63627715462161
2026-02-01T19:47:25+08:0029.964262388186853
2026-02-01T21:36:22+08:0029.97376118131478
2026-02-01T21:36:45+08:0030.0524918358654
2026-02-01T21:37:24+08:0030.64598892517393
2026-02-01T21:37:42+08:0031.110279710350703
2026-02-02T08:50:40+08:0031.11036490132046
2026-02-02T08:57:30+08:0031.835112878034927
2026-02-02T08:58:22+08:0031.835112878034927
2026-02-02T08:59:27+08:0032.43144966633537
2026-02-02T08:59:45+08:0035.72266079795542
2026-02-02T09:00:12+08:0035.731463864830324
2026-02-02T09:03:04+08:0036.198551753514124
2026-02-02T09:07:59+08:0036.204060769558424
2026-02-02T09:08:23+08:0036.28171233849212
2026-02-02T09:09:46+08:0037.61495101519239
2026-02-02T10:13:05+08:0037.700141984949596
2026-02-02T10:13:28+08:0037.70026977140423
2026-02-02T10:13:37+08:0037.69474655686497
2026-02-02T10:14:37+08:0038.14330540962658
2026-02-02T10:15:49+08:0038.3243504188556
2026-02-02T10:17:43+08:0040.70685787306545
2026-02-02T10:17:55+08:0040.71250887405935
2026-02-02T11:11:22+08:0040.71257986653415
2026-02-02T11:11:31+08:0040.712693454493824
2026-02-02T11:12:21+08:0040.793979838137155
2026-02-02T11:14:23+08:0041.6450518245066
2026-02-02T11:15:54+08:0044.19652136873491
2026-02-02T12:25:16+08:0044.20607695584268
2026-02-02T12:25:44+08:0044.37645889535709
2026-02-02T12:26:14+08:0044.448786028680956
2026-02-02T12:30:47+08:0044.720389038761894
2026-02-02T12:31:48+08:0046.400070992474795
2026-02-02T12:32:26+08:0046.423583700127786
2026-02-02T13:42:56+08:0046.432202186568226
2026-02-02T13:43:38+08:0046.46196223200341
2026-02-02T13:44:52+08:0046.64312082919211
2026-02-02T13:45:54+08:0047.9238250745421
2026-02-02T13:52:09+08:0047.91855743291211
2026-02-02T14:08:48+08:0047.940366321169954
2026-02-02T14:09:56+08:0047.94039471815987
2026-02-02T14:10:14+08:0048.13437455629703
2026-02-02T14:11:11+08:0048.98770410336504
2026-02-02T15:07:24+08:0049.172980264092004
2026-02-02T15:09:22+08:0049.20079511571773
2026-02-02T15:10:01+08:0049.20177481186994
2026-02-02T15:10:40+08:0049.30437313644754
2026-02-02T15:12:31+08:0050.433153485730514
2026-02-02T16:18:07+08:0050.472511713758344
2026-02-02T16:19:15+08:0050.47539400823513
2026-02-02T16:19:20+08:0050.48070424534999
2026-02-02T16:19:23+08:0050.48083203180463
2026-02-02T16:20:52+08:0050.60181740735482
2026-02-02T16:21:49+08:0051.97623171943774
2026-02-02T16:23:16+08:0052.54417151781911
2026-02-02T17:16:22+08:0052.57682805622604
2026-02-02T17:17:44+08:0052.593852051682525
2026-02-02T17:17:49+08:0052.59876473093852
2026-02-02T17:17:53+08:0052.60708504898481
2026-02-02T17:17:58+08:0052.61455345733352
2026-02-02T17:19:41+08:0053.55165412466278
2026-02-02T17:21:09+08:0055.86801079085617
2026-02-02T17:22:14+08:0069.29268777509584
2026-02-02T17:23:35+08:0070.941402811302
2026-02-02T17:56:57+08:0070.94144540678688
2026-02-02T18:13:13+08:0070.95956268635524
2026-02-02T18:14:05+08:0081.0404941076246
2026-02-02T18:15:25+08:0083.79930427374698
2026-02-02T18:16:01+08:0093.2469828198211
2026-02-02T18:17:52+08:0094.69216243078233
2026-02-02T18:23:50+08:0095.11811727956837
2026-02-02T20:49:45+08:0095.12970325145534
2026-02-02T20:50:19+08:0095.14478205310238
2026-02-02T20:52:56+08:0097.57235553031379
2026-02-02T20:53:44+08:00103.6876473093852
2026-02-02T20:54:13+08:00109.61267925599887
2026-02-02T21:39:46+08:00110.65976146528467
2026-02-02T21:40:23+08:00118.16508590089451
2026-02-03T07:50:24+08:00118.15909413602158
2026-02-03T07:52:55+08:00128.63190401817408
2026-02-03T07:54:06+08:00130.29169388044866
2026-02-03T07:54:10+08:00133.7305693596479
2026-02-03T07:55:31+08:00133.7305693596479
2026-02-03T09:12:50+08:00133.73096691750675
2026-02-03T09:13:11+08:00133.7310947039614
2026-02-03T09:13:45+08:00139.14773534005394
2026-02-03T09:14:02+08:00140.72267499645037
2026-02-03T09:16:29+08:00140.94456907567798
2026-02-03T09:18:34+08:00183.62808462302996
2026-02-03T09:18:55+08:00193.27738179752947
2026-02-03T09:23:50+08:00197.95152633820814
2026-02-03T09:28:36+08:00200.22328553173364
2026-02-03T09:59:24+08:00200.2232997302286
2026-02-03T10:01:51+08:00200.2482748828624
2026-02-03T10:02:31+08:00200.2483458753372
2026-02-03T10:07:12+08:00201.76738605707794
2026-02-03T10:07:58+08:00216.034033792418
2026-02-03T10:52:46+08:00216.03416157887264
2026-02-03T11:12:42+08:00216.67786454635808
2026-02-03T11:13:05+08:00217.63426096833734
2026-02-03T11:13:18+08:00223.79072838279143
2026-02-03T11:14:18+08:00223.79128212409483
2026-02-03T11:51:21+08:00224.17190117847508
2026-02-03T11:51:26+08:00224.24060769558426
2026-02-03T11:51:30+08:00224.24439869373848
2026-02-03T12:00:15+08:00224.26211841544796
2026-02-03T12:05:28+08:00224.27218514837426
2026-02-03T12:05:57+08:00225.1040749680534
2026-02-03T12:07:03+08:00228.71901178475082
2026-02-03T13:44:09+08:00228.75618344455486
2026-02-03T13:44:14+08:00228.77955416725828
2026-02-03T13:44:18+08:00228.816143688769
2026-02-03T13:44:28+08:00228.93962799943205
2026-02-03T13:44:32+08:00228.95631123100952
2026-02-03T13:44:44+08:00228.96872071560415
2026-02-03T13:46:00+08:00228.97641629987223
2026-02-03T13:47:20+08:00229.55359931847224
2026-02-03T13:47:34+08:00234.48047706943063
2026-02-03T13:48:00+08:00234.49938946471673
2026-02-03T13:48:06+08:00235.19795541672582
2026-02-03T13:53:19+08:00240.59338350134885
2026-02-03T14:09:16+08:00240.68166974300723
2026-02-03T14:09:49+08:00241.6906289933267
2026-02-03T14:10:18+08:00246.6473235837001
2026-02-03T14:11:00+08:00246.65002129774243
2026-02-03T14:15:28+08:00249.20709924747976
2026-02-03T14:17:10+08:00249.21952293056935
2026-02-03T14:44:20+08:00250.20874627289507
2026-02-03T15:20:19+08:00250.23489990061054
2026-02-03T15:20:35+08:00251.06539826778362
2026-02-03T15:21:03+08:00251.199645037626
2026-02-03T15:21:08+08:00251.18723555303137
2026-02-03T15:21:13+08:00251.1830895925032
2026-02-03T15:22:00+08:00255.4114013914525
2026-02-03T15:39:04+08:00255.42863836433338
2026-02-03T15:39:20+08:00257.55841260826355
2026-02-03T16:05:24+08:00257.5584977992333
2026-02-03T16:05:27+08:00257.5589095555871
2026-02-03T16:05:49+08:00258.3511429788442
2026-02-03T16:06:18+08:00264.65243504188555
2026-02-03T16:45:15+08:00264.6542098537555
2026-02-03T16:45:23+08:00264.65359931847223
2026-02-03T17:26:07+08:00266.5532017606134
2026-02-03T17:26:41+08:00275.5152917790714
2026-02-03T17:26:59+08:00276.06903308249326
2026-02-03T18:03:15+08:00276.0691608689479
2026-02-03T18:03:52+08:00350.8952293056936
2026-02-03T18:05:03+08:00352.05352832599743
2026-02-03T18:05:26+08:00358.5521794689763
2026-02-03T18:29:40+08:00361.1321169955985
2026-02-03T20:15:32+08:00362.42355530313785
2026-02-03T20:18:14+08:00368.99745846940226
2026-02-03T20:18:44+08:00374.431222490416
2026-02-03T21:48:20+08:00375.11756353826496
2026-02-03T21:48:30+08:00380.92900752520234
2026-02-03T21:48:52+08:00380.9294334800511
2026-02-04T08:43:11+08:00380.93812295896635
2026-02-04T08:43:18+08:00380.9445974726679
2026-02-04T08:49:43+08:00381.75775947749537
2026-02-04T08:50:11+08:00382.70437313644754
2026-02-04T08:50:22+08:00387.7788442425103
2026-02-04T08:53:43+08:00387.7788442425103
2026-02-04T08:53:54+08:00394.7574045151214
2026-02-04T08:54:07+08:00437.0362629561267
2026-02-04T08:54:33+08:00437.0378105920772
2026-02-04T09:04:21+08:00439.2409200624734
2026-02-04T09:05:34+08:00442.9666051398552
2026-02-04T09:08:29+08:00444.11668323157744
2026-02-04T09:08:35+08:00461.0640068152776
2026-02-04T10:03:40+08:00461.06412040323727
2026-02-04T10:04:39+08:00461.8727246911827
2026-02-04T10:09:19+08:00487.292290217237
2026-02-04T10:22:24+08:00487.29240380519667
2026-02-04T10:23:37+08:00494.9595910833452
2026-02-04T11:07:51+08:00495.23829334090584
2026-02-04T11:28:50+08:00520.3696294192815
2026-02-04T17:36:42+08:00525.47
捷利预测倍数
时间倍数
券商孖展资金走势
时间券商孖展资金
预测模型 一手期望中签手数— 期望中签1手所需手数—
倍数推导
近期首日表现
+4.6%
→
参与人数
16,389
→
人均手数
29.2
→
认购倍数
7x
7x = 16,389 × 29.2 ÷ 65,890 A+H二次上市 · 参与×0.44 H股折价 43.2% 孖展加权 100% → 672.6x
1x1419.0x
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.57
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.67
此模型不适用分配手法调节

实际 vs 预测 对比

以实际认购倍数 707.3x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.567, 乙组 α=0.667) 为基准,对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数

申购手数 认购金额(HKD) 实际期望中签 预测期望中签 偏差

标志澜起科技中签预测矩阵

行为申购档位,列为不同认购倍数,数值为期望中签手数,绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手;非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。

发售机制说明

机制B

《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%,不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%(因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者,基石投资者除外)。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益,自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。

分配手法系数 α

α 为发行人分配偏好系数,描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——无论申购多少手,每位中签者获配股数相同。对散户(小单申购)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——获配股数与申购手数成正比。对大额申购更有利。
  • 历史实际 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3–0.9,乙组 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差异较大,反映发行人各自的分配策略。
中签率定义

本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致:中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径,与其他网站可能使用的不同定义(如「申购人数中签比例」)有本质区别。

期望中签手数

期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数

例:某档位获配总股数 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

关于本页

本页展示 澜起科技(06809)的中签预测:基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导,公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数;其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准,再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准;随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权;临近截止(进度约九成后)默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配,估计各申购档位的期望中签手数,并结合分配手法系数 α(人均分配至比例分配)给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α,覆盖 cibo 的默认预测,查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源:港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告;孖展数据(孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细)来自捷利交易宝(TradeGo),倍数仅覆盖已上报券商,捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新;中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中签率预测、中签画像与入通分析