孖展动态 孖展倍数11212.1x 孖展资金4206.2亿 捷利预测倍数14463.61x
排名 券商 孖展资金
1 富途证券富途 2818.7亿
2 老虎国际老虎 460.8亿
3 辉立证券辉立 398.0亿
4 华泰国际华泰 168.2亿
5 华盛证券华盛 83.5亿
6 盈立证券盈立 60.7亿
7 致富证券致富 55.4亿
8 信诚证券信诚 50.0亿
9 复星国际复星 43.2亿
孖展倍数
时间倍数
2026-05-08T06:00:00+08:000
2026-05-08T10:26:02+08:000.34328358208955223
2026-05-08T10:26:16+08:000.9509594882729211
2026-05-08T10:26:29+08:002.0437100213219614
2026-05-08T10:49:18+08:002.0639658848614073
2026-05-08T10:49:47+08:002.11727078891258
2026-05-08T11:04:06+08:002.214818763326226
2026-05-08T11:04:35+08:003.816098081023454
2026-05-08T11:07:02+08:007.734008528784648
2026-05-08T11:31:29+08:007.848614072494669
2026-05-08T12:03:16+08:007.936034115138593
2026-05-08T12:03:20+08:008.044243070362473
2026-05-08T12:03:24+08:008.272121535181236
2026-05-08T12:05:10+08:0010.857409381663112
2026-05-08T13:39:15+08:0011.13086353944563
2026-05-08T13:39:17+08:0011.33315565031983
2026-05-08T13:39:23+08:0011.396055437100213
2026-05-08T13:39:57+08:0011.65591684434968
2026-05-08T13:40:03+08:0014.347814498933902
2026-05-08T13:40:12+08:0014.423507462686567
2026-05-08T14:25:36+08:0014.636727078891258
2026-05-08T14:25:50+08:0015.552238805970148
2026-05-08T14:25:57+08:0015.641524520255864
2026-05-08T14:26:19+08:0016.89418976545842
2026-05-08T14:26:46+08:0017.51492537313433
2026-05-08T14:31:39+08:0017.657515991471215
2026-05-08T14:34:05+08:0018.990138592750533
2026-05-08T15:06:03+08:0019.098081023454156
2026-05-08T15:06:40+08:0019.184434968017058
2026-05-08T15:06:43+08:0020.59968017057569
2026-05-08T15:06:52+08:0023.291577825159916
2026-05-08T15:59:58+08:0023.300639658848613
2026-05-08T16:00:06+08:0023.363539445628998
2026-05-08T16:02:44+08:0023.426172707889126
2026-05-08T16:08:30+08:0024.76732409381663
2026-05-08T16:08:51+08:0027.752398720682304
2026-05-08T16:40:48+08:0028.01679104477612
2026-05-08T17:00:36+08:0028.09328358208955
2026-05-08T17:31:15+08:0028.23400852878465
2026-05-08T17:31:23+08:0029.106076759061835
2026-05-08T17:31:55+08:0029.372601279317696
2026-05-08T17:32:14+08:0034.72974413646055
2026-05-08T17:32:27+08:0034.74493603411514
2026-05-08T18:08:59+08:0034.823294243070364
2026-05-08T18:09:11+08:0041.48640724946695
2026-05-08T18:09:16+08:0041.596481876332625
2026-05-08T18:09:21+08:0041.55303837953092
2026-05-08T18:09:59+08:0045.39099147121535
2026-05-08T18:10:49+08:0045.93443496801706
2026-05-08T20:35:26+08:0045.974680170575695
2026-05-08T20:35:34+08:0045.99440298507463
2026-05-08T20:35:39+08:0046.346481876332625
2026-05-08T20:35:49+08:0049.011727078891255
2026-05-08T20:35:54+08:0049.07089552238806
2026-05-08T20:35:59+08:0049.20842217484009
2026-05-08T20:36:08+08:0050.72761194029851
2026-05-08T22:12:06+08:0050.777452025586356
2026-05-08T22:12:11+08:0051.17404051172708
2026-05-08T22:12:21+08:0053.01305970149254
2026-05-08T22:12:26+08:0055.547707889125796
2026-05-08T22:12:36+08:0057.70655650319829
2026-05-09T10:08:44+08:0057.9704157782516
2026-05-09T10:08:59+08:0057.9704157782516
2026-05-09T10:09:05+08:0058.79317697228145
2026-05-09T10:09:17+08:0075.18443496801706
2026-05-09T10:09:22+08:0082.40485074626865
2026-05-09T10:09:31+08:0082.76865671641791
2026-05-09T10:09:36+08:0082.77425373134328
2026-05-09T10:09:51+08:0084.32009594882729
2026-05-09T10:09:57+08:0084.82036247334754
2026-05-09T10:10:03+08:0084.85874200426439
2026-05-09T10:10:07+08:0084.95015991471216
2026-05-09T10:10:24+08:0085.85634328358209
2026-05-09T13:30:07+08:0085.88566098081023
2026-05-09T13:30:14+08:0086.2161513859275
2026-05-09T13:30:19+08:0086.22734541577825
2026-05-09T13:30:24+08:0086.9317697228145
2026-05-09T13:30:45+08:0089.81023454157783
2026-05-09T13:30:50+08:0089.82649253731343
2026-05-09T13:30:55+08:0089.92830490405117
2026-05-09T13:31:01+08:0089.95255863539445
2026-05-09T13:31:06+08:0090.71588486140725
2026-05-09T13:31:22+08:0092.90138592750533
2026-05-09T13:31:26+08:0092.91044776119404
2026-05-09T13:31:31+08:0092.99466950959489
2026-05-09T13:31:36+08:0093.17777185501066
2026-05-09T13:31:50+08:0094.88352878464819
2026-05-09T15:16:29+08:0094.89339019189765
2026-05-09T15:16:34+08:0095.17963752665246
2026-05-09T15:16:38+08:0095.23587420042644
2026-05-09T15:16:43+08:0095.25346481876332
2026-05-09T15:16:52+08:0096.79930703624734
2026-05-09T15:16:57+08:0096.8001066098081
2026-05-09T15:17:01+08:0096.88006396588486
2026-05-09T15:17:06+08:0096.90591684434968
2026-05-09T15:17:10+08:0097.15911513859275
2026-05-09T15:17:23+08:0098.30517057569297
2026-05-09T16:55:09+08:0098.45788912579957
2026-05-09T16:55:14+08:0098.66871002132196
2026-05-09T16:55:23+08:0099.02318763326225
2026-05-09T16:55:29+08:0099.03118336886993
2026-05-09T16:55:43+08:00100.33715351812367
2026-05-09T16:55:47+08:00100.33795309168444
2026-05-09T17:09:43+08:00100.39019189765459
2026-05-09T17:09:48+08:00100.44856076759062
2026-05-09T17:09:52+08:00100.54957356076758
2026-05-09T17:10:08+08:00100.9227078891258
2026-05-09T18:05:14+08:00100.92110874200426
2026-05-09T18:05:18+08:00101.71215351812367
2026-05-09T18:05:23+08:00101.75506396588486
2026-05-09T18:05:27+08:00101.77372068230277
2026-05-09T18:05:43+08:00102.75986140724947
2026-05-09T20:10:25+08:00102.79744136460555
2026-05-09T20:10:30+08:00102.90724946695096
2026-05-09T20:10:45+08:00103.57356076759062
2026-05-09T20:10:50+08:00103.59674840085287
2026-05-09T20:10:55+08:00103.80756929637526
2026-05-09T20:10:59+08:00103.83422174840085
2026-05-09T22:03:48+08:00103.8411513859275
2026-05-09T22:03:54+08:00103.89152452025586
2026-05-09T22:03:58+08:00104.26465884861408
2026-05-09T22:04:03+08:00104.35021321961621
2026-05-09T22:06:50+08:00105.01652452025586
2026-05-10T09:31:05+08:00109.86727078891258
2026-05-10T09:31:10+08:00110.34701492537313
2026-05-10T09:31:52+08:00110.49360341151386
2026-05-10T09:31:57+08:00110.625
2026-05-10T09:32:01+08:00110.63619402985074
2026-05-10T09:33:23+08:00112.03837953091684
2026-05-10T09:33:51+08:00112.19696162046908
2026-05-10T12:31:38+08:00112.18310234541578
2026-05-10T12:31:42+08:00112.37873134328358
2026-05-10T12:31:47+08:00112.3478144989339
2026-05-10T12:33:04+08:00112.36540511727078
2026-05-10T12:33:09+08:00112.37579957356077
2026-05-10T12:33:13+08:00112.4069829424307
2026-05-10T12:34:58+08:00114.05943496801706
2026-05-10T12:35:02+08:00114.1660447761194
2026-05-10T12:35:06+08:00115.84514925373135
2026-05-10T12:36:19+08:00115.87286780383795
2026-05-10T12:36:23+08:00116.40058635394456
2026-05-10T12:36:28+08:00116.42670575692964
2026-05-10T12:37:03+08:00116.84994669509595
2026-05-10T12:37:07+08:00116.87659914712154
2026-05-10T17:19:48+08:00116.9117803837953
2026-05-10T17:19:53+08:00116.91817697228144
2026-05-10T17:19:58+08:00116.92484008528784
2026-05-10T17:20:02+08:00116.932302771855
2026-05-10T17:20:07+08:00116.94962686567165
2026-05-10T17:20:47+08:00116.98001066098081
2026-05-10T17:20:52+08:00117.02558635394456
2026-05-10T17:20:57+08:00117.92537313432835
2026-05-10T17:21:01+08:00118.10287846481876
2026-05-10T17:22:03+08:00119.75533049040511
2026-05-10T17:22:07+08:00120.55490405117271
2026-05-10T17:22:12+08:00121.22121535181236
2026-05-10T17:22:17+08:00122.07409381663113
2026-05-10T17:22:21+08:00122.84701492537313
2026-05-10T17:24:01+08:00122.93630063965885
2026-05-10T17:24:07+08:00123.06982942430703
2026-05-10T17:24:12+08:00123.27372068230277
2026-05-10T17:24:17+08:00123.35101279317698
2026-05-10T17:24:21+08:00124.13139658848614
2026-05-10T17:25:06+08:00124.40431769722815
2026-05-10T19:03:51+08:00124.40804904051173
2026-05-10T19:04:12+08:00124.4160447761194
2026-05-10T19:04:16+08:00124.4251066098081
2026-05-10T19:05:31+08:00124.5434434968017
2026-05-10T19:05:35+08:00125.08288912579957
2026-05-10T19:06:02+08:00125.13619402985074
2026-05-10T19:06:14+08:00126.30890191897655
2026-05-10T19:06:45+08:00126.3459488272921
2026-05-10T19:06:50+08:00126.43763326226012
2026-05-10T22:52:01+08:00126.6202025586354
2026-05-10T22:52:26+08:00127.05277185501066
2026-05-10T22:52:33+08:00127.15618336886993
2026-05-10T22:53:28+08:00127.19696162046908
2026-05-10T22:53:32+08:00127.21641791044776
2026-05-10T22:54:26+08:00127.85607675906184
2026-05-10T22:54:31+08:00128.65565031982942
2026-05-10T22:54:35+08:00129.61513859275053
2026-05-11T08:34:19+08:00129.59754797441366
2026-05-11T08:34:36+08:00130.05916844349682
2026-05-11T08:34:46+08:00130.05916844349682
2026-05-11T08:34:51+08:00141.14658848614073
2026-05-11T09:04:34+08:00143.01226012793177
2026-05-11T09:04:41+08:00144.06849680170575
2026-05-11T09:05:01+08:00144.3030383795309
2026-05-11T09:05:22+08:00144.59994669509595
2026-05-11T09:05:30+08:00149.45069296375266
2026-05-11T09:05:59+08:00151.7198827292111
2026-05-11T09:45:42+08:00151.7867803837953
2026-05-11T10:09:58+08:00153.4757462686567
2026-05-11T10:10:04+08:00153.68123667377398
2026-05-11T10:10:12+08:00156.02398720682302
2026-05-11T10:10:41+08:00171.29584221748402
2026-05-11T10:31:23+08:00172.59141791044777
2026-05-11T11:02:48+08:00172.94882729211088
2026-05-11T11:03:21+08:00176.1292643923241
2026-05-11T11:16:34+08:00186.41711087420043
2026-05-11T11:16:40+08:00187.74973347547976
2026-05-11T11:31:07+08:00188.26945628997868
2026-05-11T12:16:16+08:00188.42750533049042
2026-05-11T12:16:20+08:00193.38033049040513
2026-05-11T12:16:28+08:00201.66924307036248
2026-05-11T13:39:39+08:00202.08608742004265
2026-05-11T13:39:45+08:00202.21508528784648
2026-05-11T13:39:51+08:00203.85101279317698
2026-05-11T13:40:15+08:00212.03331556503198
2026-05-11T13:40:22+08:00212.06929637526653
2026-05-11T13:40:28+08:00213.6684434968017
2026-05-11T14:00:29+08:00219.29211087420043
2026-05-11T14:00:52+08:00231.28571428571428
2026-05-11T14:01:46+08:00234.25613006396588
2026-05-11T14:02:31+08:00234.284381663113
2026-05-11T14:03:28+08:00236.37953091684435
2026-05-11T14:05:20+08:00243.1492537313433
2026-05-11T15:07:02+08:00243.19349680170575
2026-05-11T15:07:08+08:00244.77398720682302
2026-05-11T15:07:16+08:00245.0719616204691
2026-05-11T15:07:21+08:00246.4045842217484
2026-05-11T15:07:35+08:00254.10714285714286
2026-05-11T16:09:35+08:00254.42190831556502
2026-05-11T16:09:50+08:00254.78038379530918
2026-05-11T16:10:04+08:00290.7438699360341
2026-05-11T16:10:20+08:00307.7481343283582
2026-05-11T17:14:04+08:00308.0399786780384
2026-05-11T17:14:12+08:00342.6881663113006
2026-05-11T17:14:40+08:00355.40218550106607
2026-05-11T17:14:44+08:00449.2747867803838
2026-05-11T17:15:00+08:00498.58182302771854
2026-05-11T17:15:05+08:00520.0903518123667
2026-05-11T17:44:23+08:00524.8726012793177
2026-05-11T17:48:40+08:00551.5250533049041
2026-05-11T18:05:41+08:00558.64578891258
2026-05-11T18:05:46+08:00601.2350746268656
2026-05-11T18:06:01+08:001109.5506396588487
2026-05-11T18:06:53+08:001192.2993070362472
2026-05-11T20:34:04+08:001200.379264392324
2026-05-11T20:34:09+08:001205.3208955223881
2026-05-11T20:34:14+08:001233.2070895522388
2026-05-11T20:34:24+08:001483.2337420042643
2026-05-11T20:34:29+08:001489.0882196162047
2026-05-11T20:34:33+08:001516.5954157782517
2026-05-11T20:34:42+08:001691.3288912579958
2026-05-11T22:06:20+08:001695.1431236673775
2026-05-11T22:06:26+08:001718.465618336887
2026-05-11T22:06:35+08:001856.9517590618336
2026-05-11T22:06:54+08:001899.857409381663
2026-05-11T22:07:04+08:002051.563166311301
2026-05-12T08:14:54+08:002083.340618336887
2026-05-12T08:14:58+08:002150.866471215352
2026-05-12T08:15:26+08:002765.418710021322
2026-05-12T08:15:38+08:002765.418710021322
2026-05-12T09:16:46+08:002783.002132196162
2026-05-12T09:16:59+08:002801.5327825159916
2026-05-12T09:17:16+08:002817.8566098081023
2026-05-12T09:17:35+08:002971.667910447761
2026-05-12T09:17:42+08:002998.3203624733474
2026-05-12T10:05:21+08:003041.125799573561
2026-05-12T10:05:41+08:003113.2161513859273
2026-05-12T10:05:54+08:003119.148987206823
2026-05-12T10:06:09+08:003163.4744136460554
2026-05-12T10:06:25+08:003399.855010660981
2026-05-12T10:32:54+08:003407.2619936034116
2026-05-12T10:51:28+08:003436.5796908315565
2026-05-12T11:08:53+08:003440.065565031983
2026-05-12T11:10:03+08:003469.665511727079
2026-05-12T11:10:21+08:003663.215618336887
2026-05-12T11:10:44+08:003667.765458422175
2026-05-12T11:44:35+08:003672.599946695096
2026-05-12T12:11:09+08:003683.2609275053305
2026-05-12T12:11:29+08:003689.1055437100213
2026-05-12T12:12:26+08:003710.2731876332623
2026-05-12T12:13:07+08:003863.071695095949
2026-05-12T12:13:44+08:003867.181236673774
2026-05-12T13:45:52+08:003870.8363539445627
2026-05-12T13:46:01+08:003874.45842217484
2026-05-12T13:46:49+08:003892.8294243070363
2026-05-12T13:47:25+08:003895.4016524520257
2026-05-12T13:47:49+08:003899.525852878465
2026-05-12T13:48:06+08:004010.986407249467
2026-05-12T13:48:33+08:004024.31263326226
2026-05-12T14:00:03+08:004025.585554371002
2026-05-12T14:01:17+08:004171.933635394456
2026-05-12T14:04:02+08:004174.325426439233
2026-05-12T14:04:27+08:004194.234008528784
2026-05-12T14:05:31+08:004327.65618336887
2026-05-12T14:37:46+08:004331.582089552238
2026-05-12T14:38:31+08:004451.518123667377
2026-05-12T15:09:18+08:004451.706023454158
2026-05-12T15:10:30+08:004474.863539445629
2026-05-12T15:10:56+08:004478.670309168443
2026-05-12T15:11:17+08:004611.132995735607
2026-05-12T15:33:17+08:004615.921908315565
2026-05-12T16:28:09+08:004622.3686034115135
2026-05-12T16:29:08+08:004649.713219616205
2026-05-12T16:30:21+08:004788.732409381663
2026-05-12T16:30:52+08:004792.987739872068
2026-05-12T16:31:08+08:004795.505863539445
2026-05-12T17:01:03+08:004797.731876332623
2026-05-12T17:01:31+08:005722.571961620469
2026-05-12T17:02:06+08:005731.973347547974
2026-05-12T17:04:07+08:005795.1929637526655
2026-05-12T17:06:22+08:006276.109808102346
2026-05-12T17:28:29+08:006297.431769722814
2026-05-12T17:33:48+08:006304.898454157783
2026-05-12T17:34:36+08:006384.855810234541
2026-05-12T18:03:16+08:006387.8379530916845
2026-05-12T18:03:47+08:006394.9357675906185
2026-05-12T18:04:11+08:006434.033848614073
2026-05-12T18:06:06+08:006503.224147121535
2026-05-12T18:07:07+08:006773.213486140725
2026-05-12T19:47:45+08:006791.870202558635
2026-05-12T19:48:12+08:006791.794243070362
2026-05-12T19:48:46+08:006797.83342217484
2026-05-12T19:49:17+08:006831.803038379531
2026-05-12T19:49:37+08:007090.598347547974
2026-05-12T20:09:13+08:007094.428837953092
2026-05-12T20:09:34+08:007124.840085287847
2026-05-12T20:09:53+08:007313.859275053305
2026-05-12T22:09:16+08:007318.389392324094
2026-05-12T22:09:37+08:007355.6004797441365
2026-05-12T22:09:56+08:007574.257196162047
2026-05-12T22:10:19+08:007611.384861407249
2026-05-12T22:10:39+08:007843.6876332622605
2026-05-13T08:35:32+08:007879.6495202558635
2026-05-13T08:35:37+08:008060.82302771855
2026-05-13T08:37:16+08:009280.172707889125
2026-05-13T08:37:41+08:009280.172707889125
2026-05-13T09:03:03+08:009295.900053304904
2026-05-13T09:04:04+08:009326.310501066098
2026-05-13T09:04:38+08:009385.78011727079
2026-05-13T09:05:34+08:009869.015724946696
2026-05-13T09:06:52+08:0010012.535980810235
2026-05-13T09:43:56+08:0010048.516791044776
2026-05-13T09:44:45+08:0010072.518390191897
2026-05-13T10:04:25+08:0010151.484541577825
2026-05-13T10:05:34+08:0011025.684968017058
2026-05-13T11:05:17+08:0011030.129797441365
2026-05-13T13:48:44+08:0011212.1
捷利预测倍数
时间倍数
券商孖展资金走势
时间券商孖展资金
预测模型 一手期望中签手数— 期望中签1手所需手数—
倍数推导
近期首日表现
+4.6%
→
参与人数
40,786
→
人均手数
87.2
→
认购倍数
289x
289x = 40,786 × 87.2 ÷ 12,300 机器人 孖展加权 100% → 14463.6x
1x26656.0x
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.45
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.55
此模型不适用分配手法调节

实际 vs 预测 对比

以实际认购倍数 14855.4x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.448, 乙组 α=0.548) 为基准,对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数

申购手数 认购金额(HKD) 实际期望中签 预测期望中签 偏差

标志翼菲科技中签预测矩阵

行为申购档位,列为不同认购倍数,数值为期望中签手数,绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手;非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。

发售机制说明

18C特专科技

《主板规则》第18C章,为特专科技公司设立。机制A及机制B不适用。初订分配份额为5%,回补门槛:10倍至不足50倍→10%,50倍或以上→20%。根据第18C.08条,发售股份总数中至少50%须由配售部分的独立定价投资者认购。

分配手法系数 α

α 为发行人分配偏好系数,描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——无论申购多少手,每位中签者获配股数相同。对散户(小单申购)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——获配股数与申购手数成正比。对大额申购更有利。
  • 历史实际 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3–0.9,乙组 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差异较大,反映发行人各自的分配策略。
中签率定义

本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致:中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径,与其他网站可能使用的不同定义(如「申购人数中签比例」)有本质区别。

期望中签手数

期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数

例:某档位获配总股数 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

关于本页

本页展示 翼菲科技(06871)的中签预测:基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导,公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数;其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准,再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准;随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权;临近截止(进度约九成后)默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配,估计各申购档位的期望中签手数,并结合分配手法系数 α(人均分配至比例分配)给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α,覆盖 cibo 的默认预测,查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源:港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告;孖展数据(孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细)来自捷利交易宝(TradeGo),倍数仅覆盖已上报券商,捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新;中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中签率预测、中签画像与入通分析