孖展动态 孖展倍数280.79x 孖展资金1655.0亿 捷利预测倍数376.27x
排名 券商 孖展资金
1 富途证券富途 876.7亿
2 辉立证券辉立 455.0亿
3 老虎国际老虎 123.9亿
4 华泰国际华泰 82.7亿
5 致富证券致富 27.7亿
6 复星国际复星 18.9亿
7 盈立证券盈立 18.1亿
8 华盛证券华盛 17.9亿
9 熊猫证券熊猫 11.7亿
孖展倍数
时间倍数
2026-06-29T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-29T10:10:44+08:000.018358274797244563
2026-06-29T10:10:55+08:000.03680138450575181
2026-06-29T10:11:02+08:000.042994333027927656
2026-06-29T11:01:34+08:000.04945875326614409
2026-06-29T11:04:40+08:000.30591469001323424
2026-06-29T11:05:48+08:000.35501713665207507
2026-06-29T11:07:27+08:001.4426006990396687
2026-06-29T11:41:44+08:001.451084190165937
2026-06-29T12:15:02+08:001.458702365197326
2026-06-29T12:15:53+08:001.5228884590586718
2026-06-29T12:16:35+08:001.5522243713733075
2026-06-29T12:17:55+08:001.5553802300722794
2026-06-29T12:18:32+08:001.561946452204011
2026-06-29T12:19:13+08:002.059079032203332
2026-06-29T12:19:48+08:002.076046014455869
2026-06-29T13:41:24+08:002.078014184397163
2026-06-29T13:42:51+08:002.133564084291968
2026-06-29T13:43:30+08:002.1365502731684143
2026-06-29T13:44:09+08:002.161389935186128
2026-06-29T13:44:55+08:002.190081102175167
2026-06-29T13:45:34+08:003.1266585225151853
2026-06-29T13:46:08+08:003.1605924870202586
2026-06-29T14:01:52+08:003.1644100580270793
2026-06-29T14:05:07+08:003.180749261936272
2026-06-29T14:05:43+08:003.2213851844310972
2026-06-29T14:07:16+08:003.2894567172282736
2026-06-29T14:07:48+08:003.2921375004241744
2026-06-29T14:08:26+08:003.8316875360548375
2026-06-29T14:10:12+08:003.9164036784417524
2026-06-29T15:00:29+08:003.9204927211646137
2026-06-29T15:01:42+08:003.938935830873121
2026-06-29T15:04:28+08:003.9760765550239237
2026-06-29T15:05:52+08:004.055668668770572
2026-06-29T15:06:22+08:004.059384437883878
2026-06-29T15:07:09+08:004.941667515015779
2026-06-29T16:01:33+08:005.322236926940175
2026-06-29T16:02:13+08:005.373137873697784
2026-06-29T16:03:20+08:005.403322135125046
2026-06-29T16:04:44+08:005.4690352573891206
2026-06-29T16:09:20+08:005.507855712782924
2026-06-29T16:12:02+08:006.169568020631851
2026-06-29T16:12:31+08:006.188265635074146
2026-06-29T17:08:04+08:006.2204180664427025
2026-06-29T17:08:55+08:006.331059757711493
2026-06-29T17:10:12+08:006.921934914656079
2026-06-29T17:10:44+08:006.927211646136618
2026-06-29T17:11:29+08:006.94414469442465
2026-06-29T17:12:26+08:007.951983440225321
2026-06-29T17:59:54+08:008.036818351488005
2026-06-29T18:00:43+08:009.020903322135124
2026-06-29T18:02:54+08:009.056211612202654
2026-06-29T18:04:28+08:009.091384166412162
2026-06-29T18:05:21+08:009.114747700973904
2026-06-29T18:06:27+08:009.125046659201194
2026-06-29T18:08:09+08:009.150938274118566
2026-06-29T18:08:40+08:009.571719433981473
2026-06-29T18:09:32+08:009.787318877464454
2026-06-29T20:27:48+08:009.811191421493772
2026-06-29T20:29:08+08:009.854219688486205
2026-06-29T20:29:53+08:009.872968203875258
2026-06-29T20:30:50+08:009.913621093352337
2026-06-29T20:37:47+08:0010.017102718110557
2026-06-29T20:41:50+08:0010.955376836675828
2026-06-29T21:09:31+08:0010.964335403305169
2026-06-29T22:06:58+08:0010.991499541891478
2026-06-29T22:08:01+08:0011.054260409243613
2026-06-29T22:09:04+08:0011.07445111812413
2026-06-29T22:10:10+08:0011.944857307679257
2026-06-30T09:05:47+08:0011.953900709219859
2026-06-30T09:05:50+08:0011.970138111235535
2026-06-30T09:05:54+08:0011.972598323662153
2026-06-30T09:08:34+08:0012.28160100444535
2026-06-30T09:10:18+08:0012.32622416776952
2026-06-30T09:10:22+08:0012.656282873528115
2026-06-30T09:10:25+08:0012.681970884658455
2026-06-30T09:14:13+08:0014.409209677966677
2026-06-30T09:14:19+08:0014.441107604601445
2026-06-30T09:14:22+08:0014.878855746716889
2026-06-30T09:16:07+08:0014.97344667277478
2026-06-30T09:17:52+08:0014.97344667277478
2026-06-30T10:21:38+08:0015.092215548542537
2026-06-30T10:21:44+08:0015.120940649496081
2026-06-30T10:21:59+08:0015.12862669245648
2026-06-30T10:22:11+08:0015.147544877668057
2026-06-30T10:22:17+08:0015.17752553530829
2026-06-30T10:22:29+08:0015.175964572941057
2026-06-30T10:22:35+08:0015.713817910346465
2026-06-30T11:11:42+08:0015.741015982897283
2026-06-30T11:11:54+08:0015.755896026332756
2026-06-30T11:12:06+08:0015.81999728528284
2026-06-30T11:12:20+08:0015.832756455936748
2026-06-30T11:12:32+08:0015.84147748481455
2026-06-30T11:12:39+08:0015.948369473005531
2026-06-30T12:14:03+08:0015.974770097390477
2026-06-30T12:18:48+08:0016.03035393124979
2026-06-30T12:19:49+08:0016.03887135634056
2026-06-30T12:21:37+08:0016.049526621195156
2026-06-30T12:24:02+08:0016.064457565577385
2026-06-30T12:27:04+08:0016.286725033085617
2026-06-30T14:02:59+08:0016.2782585089416
2026-06-30T14:03:02+08:0016.28087142420849
2026-06-30T14:08:38+08:0016.28748854728698
2026-06-30T14:08:40+08:0016.311157487529268
2026-06-30T14:13:04+08:0016.341528385761308
2026-06-30T14:13:07+08:0016.340781838542195
2026-06-30T14:15:33+08:0016.337422376056196
2026-06-30T14:15:49+08:0016.342868777359257
2026-06-30T14:17:08+08:0016.361159184227493
2026-06-30T14:17:10+08:0016.36041263700838
2026-06-30T14:20:30+08:0016.794767382673317
2026-06-30T14:20:33+08:0017.230818826563507
2026-06-30T14:24:21+08:0017.26475279106858
2026-06-30T14:27:10+08:0018.139163188435305
2026-06-30T15:03:59+08:0018.172113067969732
2026-06-30T15:06:12+08:0018.228986392480234
2026-06-30T15:07:15+08:0018.231938647392173
2026-06-30T15:08:45+08:0018.25050052597645
2026-06-30T15:10:35+08:0018.503308561539246
2026-06-30T15:17:08+08:0018.51491397739998
2026-06-30T16:28:39+08:0018.75973056432183
2026-06-30T16:32:37+08:0018.51878244935356
2026-06-30T16:35:21+08:0018.524788761070955
2026-06-30T16:37:18+08:0018.628660626420984
2026-06-30T16:40:14+08:0018.644914995418915
2026-06-30T16:41:24+08:0018.631341409616887
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2026-06-30T17:08:49+08:0018.858631103871865
2026-06-30T17:11:39+08:0018.94796226543147
2026-06-30T17:13:06+08:0018.96587939869015
2026-06-30T17:14:30+08:0019.041653941429978
2026-06-30T17:17:32+08:0019.577810580610134
2026-06-30T17:49:03+08:0021.308442770368863
2026-06-30T18:01:45+08:0021.389273473819948
2026-06-30T18:11:49+08:0021.426261495130476
2026-06-30T18:16:58+08:0021.432488377617158
2026-06-30T18:19:46+08:0021.445196647324305
2026-06-30T18:20:31+08:0021.43298042010248
2026-06-30T18:24:08+08:0021.452679086497675
2026-06-30T18:25:32+08:0021.776748447521125
2026-06-30T18:27:01+08:0021.917574400217177
2026-06-30T20:08:15+08:0021.929451287793952
2026-06-30T20:11:09+08:0021.95403644507788
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2026-06-30T20:14:42+08:0022.007448505208863
2026-06-30T20:16:43+08:0022.0936238080695
2026-06-30T20:19:03+08:0022.463504021174796
2026-06-30T22:00:02+08:0022.468136007329736
2026-06-30T22:05:02+08:0022.48293121585395
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2026-06-30T22:10:33+08:0023.266992432725914
2026-07-01T08:43:27+08:0023.267857748820795
2026-07-01T08:43:30+08:0023.556008008415624
2026-07-01T08:51:47+08:0023.56354134853575
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2026-07-01T08:57:33+08:0025.61264379517459
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2026-07-01T09:12:55+08:0025.766653093080865
2026-07-01T09:14:18+08:0026.060181886049747
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2026-07-01T16:20:22+08:0031.605161356001222
2026-07-01T16:22:19+08:0032.33643829108555
2026-07-01T16:24:03+08:0032.356425396179034
2026-07-01T17:04:14+08:0032.35878380671214
2026-07-01T17:06:51+08:0032.415623197258135
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2026-07-01T20:57:54+08:0035.15151515151515
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捷利预测倍数
时间倍数
券商孖展资金走势
时间券商孖展资金
预测模型 一手期望中签手数— 期望中签1手所需手数—
倍数推导
近期首日表现
-0.2%
→
参与人数
27,660
→
人均手数
112.1
→
认购倍数
31x
31x = 27,660 × 112.1 ÷ 99,692 孖展加权 100% → 376.3x
1x1696.0x
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.56
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.67
此模型不适用分配手法调节

实际 vs 预测 对比

以实际认购倍数 413.63x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.565, 乙组 α=0.665) 为基准,对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数

申购手数 认购金额(HKD) 实际期望中签 预测期望中签 偏差

标志MOMENTA-W中签预测矩阵

行为申购档位,列为不同认购倍数,数值为期望中签手数,绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手;非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。

发售机制说明

机制B

《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%,不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%(因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者,基石投资者除外)。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益,自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。

分配手法系数 α

α 为发行人分配偏好系数,描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——无论申购多少手,每位中签者获配股数相同。对散户(小单申购)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——获配股数与申购手数成正比。对大额申购更有利。
  • 历史实际 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3–0.9,乙组 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差异较大,反映发行人各自的分配策略。
中签率定义

本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致:中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径,与其他网站可能使用的不同定义(如「申购人数中签比例」)有本质区别。

期望中签手数

期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数

例:某档位获配总股数 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

关于本页

本页展示 MOMENTA-W(06880)的中签预测:基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导,公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数;其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准,再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准;随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权;临近截止(进度约九成后)默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配,估计各申购档位的期望中签手数,并结合分配手法系数 α(人均分配至比例分配)给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α,覆盖 cibo 的默认预测,查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源:港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告;孖展数据(孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细)来自捷利交易宝(TradeGo),倍数仅覆盖已上报券商,捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新;中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中签率预测、中签画像与入通分析