孖展動態 孖展倍數5473.14x 孖展資金3356.1億 捷利預測倍數7060.35x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 2010.6億
2 辉立证券辉立 647.0億
3 老虎国际老虎 315.6億
4 华泰国际华泰 138.8億
5 致富证券致富 56.8億
6 华盛证券华盛 45.5億
7 复星国际复星 40.9億
8 盈立证券盈立 39.7億
9 熊猫证券熊猫 24.4億
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2026-06-11T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-11T10:10:22+08:000.17318982387475537
2026-06-11T10:10:33+08:000.17530984996738422
2026-06-11T10:10:48+08:000.8276255707762558
2026-06-11T11:16:43+08:001.1285061969993477
2026-06-11T11:17:09+08:001.1485649054142204
2026-06-11T11:17:33+08:004.410143509458578
2026-06-11T11:51:24+08:004.434605348988911
2026-06-11T12:18:52+08:005.255218525766471
2026-06-11T12:19:16+08:005.2659817351598175
2026-06-11T12:19:51+08:007.043542074363992
2026-06-11T12:20:15+08:007.112361382909328
2026-06-11T13:40:25+08:007.113992172211351
2026-06-11T13:41:11+08:007.243476842791911
2026-06-11T13:41:26+08:008.988421395955642
2026-06-11T13:41:45+08:009.003424657534246
2026-06-11T14:05:12+08:009.069308545335943
2026-06-11T14:05:32+08:009.323874755381604
2026-06-11T14:05:54+08:009.346705805609915
2026-06-11T14:06:07+08:009.378995433789955
2026-06-11T14:06:27+08:0010.651011089367254
2026-06-11T14:07:19+08:0011.30658838878017
2026-06-11T15:07:09+08:0011.420254403131116
2026-06-11T15:07:43+08:0011.760763209393346
2026-06-11T15:08:10+08:0011.779354207436398
2026-06-11T15:08:35+08:0011.787018917155903
2026-06-11T15:08:45+08:0013.809197651663405
2026-06-11T16:09:02+08:0013.93966079582518
2026-06-11T16:09:07+08:0014.03750815394651
2026-06-11T16:09:47+08:0015.965590345727332
2026-06-11T16:10:13+08:0016.076647097195043
2026-06-11T16:10:40+08:0016.103228962818005
2026-06-11T16:10:52+08:0016.122961513372474
2026-06-11T16:11:07+08:0024.521526418786692
2026-06-11T16:44:29+08:0024.68460534898891
2026-06-11T17:12:17+08:0024.739399869536857
2026-06-11T17:12:35+08:0024.855022831050228
2026-06-11T17:12:50+08:0026.006196999347683
2026-06-11T17:13:03+08:0026.145303326810176
2026-06-11T17:13:30+08:0026.35241356816699
2026-06-11T17:13:46+08:0034.669439008480104
2026-06-11T17:41:23+08:0035.07224396607958
2026-06-11T17:46:10+08:0039.96461187214612
2026-06-11T18:09:03+08:0039.989073711676454
2026-06-11T18:09:17+08:0040.220319634703195
2026-06-11T18:09:32+08:0040.66405740378343
2026-06-11T18:09:46+08:0040.6761252446184
2026-06-11T18:09:56+08:0040.78196347031963
2026-06-11T18:11:20+08:0042.5073385518591
2026-06-11T18:11:43+08:0048.24771689497717
2026-06-11T19:56:20+08:0049.80088062622309
2026-06-11T19:56:25+08:0049.830724070450096
2026-06-11T19:56:30+08:0050.37247227658187
2026-06-11T19:56:48+08:0050.41422048271363
2026-06-11T19:56:52+08:0050.66601435094586
2026-06-11T19:57:06+08:0054.759295499021526
2026-06-11T20:12:11+08:0054.801532941943904
2026-06-11T20:12:25+08:0055.087899543378995
2026-06-11T20:12:38+08:0055.00456621004566
2026-06-11T20:12:44+08:0055.00896934116112
2026-06-11T20:13:00+08:0059.06963470319635
2026-06-11T22:02:55+08:0059.10061969993477
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2026-06-11T22:03:13+08:0060.16846053489889
2026-06-11T22:03:18+08:0060.24412915851272
2026-06-11T22:03:32+08:0063.97863666014351
2026-06-11T22:03:41+08:0064.74608610567515
2026-06-11T22:03:51+08:0064.85110893672538
2026-06-11T22:03:55+08:0064.87785388127854
2026-06-11T22:12:02+08:0072.39579256360078
2026-06-12T08:55:19+08:0075.49739073711676
2026-06-12T08:55:24+08:0078.45270711024136
2026-06-12T08:55:51+08:0078.56148075668624
2026-06-12T08:55:56+08:0078.62051532941943
2026-06-12T08:56:11+08:0078.62051532941943
2026-06-12T08:56:24+08:0098.85861056751467
2026-06-12T08:56:40+08:00100.48939986953685
2026-06-12T09:18:02+08:00101.73255055446836
2026-06-12T09:18:26+08:00101.53424657534246
2026-06-12T09:18:38+08:00101.63225701239399
2026-06-12T09:18:53+08:00103.16519895629484
2026-06-12T09:19:03+08:00103.7426614481409
2026-06-12T09:19:47+08:00103.81914546640574
2026-06-12T09:20:46+08:00105.3013698630137
2026-06-12T10:07:29+08:00105.91519895629484
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2026-06-12T10:08:47+08:00106.20662100456622
2026-06-12T10:09:04+08:00108.63649706457926
2026-06-12T10:09:13+08:00108.7279843444227
2026-06-12T10:09:35+08:00108.89073711676451
2026-06-12T11:07:24+08:00109.25309849967384
2026-06-12T11:07:51+08:00109.61301369863014
2026-06-12T11:08:28+08:00111.1329093281148
2026-06-12T11:08:37+08:00111.12018917155903
2026-06-12T11:08:46+08:00116.50179386823223
2026-06-12T11:09:12+08:00116.61399217221135
2026-06-12T12:07:13+08:00117.10322896281801
2026-06-12T12:07:23+08:00118.13062622309198
2026-06-12T12:07:57+08:00118.12932159165035
2026-06-12T12:08:20+08:00119.15296803652969
2026-06-12T12:08:31+08:00126.4262883235486
2026-06-12T12:09:24+08:00126.5295172863666
2026-06-12T12:09:31+08:00126.57208088714938
2026-06-12T13:39:56+08:00126.54044357469014
2026-06-12T13:41:12+08:00127.09931506849315
2026-06-12T13:41:19+08:00127.10926288323549
2026-06-12T13:41:30+08:00127.48809523809524
2026-06-12T13:41:35+08:00127.44960861056751
2026-06-12T13:41:48+08:00130.5807240704501
2026-06-12T14:02:25+08:00131.15867579908675
2026-06-12T14:03:03+08:00131.10241356816698
2026-06-12T14:03:56+08:00132.85502283105023
2026-06-12T14:05:14+08:00133.36040443574691
2026-06-12T14:05:21+08:00133.56050228310502
2026-06-12T14:05:56+08:00138.12671232876713
2026-06-12T15:06:35+08:00138.5081539465101
2026-06-12T15:06:54+08:00138.675799086758
2026-06-12T15:07:17+08:00139.4344422700587
2026-06-12T15:07:25+08:00139.57126549249836
2026-06-12T15:07:52+08:00139.52250489236792
2026-06-12T15:10:01+08:00143.24070450097847
2026-06-12T16:06:51+08:00143.72994129158513
2026-06-12T16:07:04+08:00143.9787997390737
2026-06-12T16:07:39+08:00144.05332681017612
2026-06-12T16:08:01+08:00144.4044357469015
2026-06-12T16:08:16+08:00144.4620026092629
2026-06-12T16:08:32+08:00144.6627527723418
2026-06-12T16:08:53+08:00149.31050228310502
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2026-06-12T17:05:27+08:00149.62932159165035
2026-06-12T17:05:53+08:00150.85485975212003
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2026-06-12T17:06:30+08:00151.1921069797782
2026-06-12T17:06:51+08:00159.65590345727333
2026-06-12T17:16:14+08:00182.4869536855838
2026-06-12T18:04:21+08:00183.7204827136334
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2026-06-12T18:05:40+08:00184.73287671232876
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2026-06-12T18:06:50+08:00186.24054142204827
2026-06-12T18:07:16+08:00188.57257012393998
2026-06-12T20:04:21+08:00188.7424983692107
2026-06-12T20:05:43+08:00191.54745596868884
2026-06-12T20:05:57+08:00191.65688193085452
2026-06-12T20:06:21+08:00193.53163731245922
2026-06-12T20:06:26+08:00193.57615786040444
2026-06-12T20:06:39+08:00193.61513372472277
2026-06-12T20:06:53+08:00195.8166992824527
2026-06-12T22:04:12+08:00195.83121330724072
2026-06-12T22:04:42+08:00195.8530658838878
2026-06-12T22:04:52+08:00197.69585779517286
2026-06-12T22:05:26+08:00198.10453359425964
2026-06-12T22:05:31+08:00198.27511415525115
2026-06-12T22:05:44+08:00198.2866927592955
2026-06-12T22:05:49+08:00201.98858447488584
2026-06-13T10:09:58+08:00201.98858447488584
2026-06-13T10:12:14+08:00204.2656555772994
2026-06-13T10:12:36+08:00204.42465753424656
2026-06-13T10:12:58+08:00219.52576647097194
2026-06-13T10:13:14+08:00219.96493803000652
2026-06-13T10:13:36+08:00223.14481409001957
2026-06-13T10:13:52+08:00223.16829745596868
2026-06-13T10:14:09+08:00225.04370515329418
2026-06-13T12:56:59+08:00225.33349641226354
2026-06-13T12:57:49+08:00225.3542074363992
2026-06-13T12:58:56+08:00225.80691454664057
2026-06-13T12:59:40+08:00225.80446836268754
2026-06-13T13:01:14+08:00227.46787345075018
2026-06-13T13:02:03+08:00228.3974233529028
2026-06-13T13:02:17+08:00228.4264514024788
2026-06-13T13:02:40+08:00228.43183300717547
2026-06-13T13:03:36+08:00228.83643183300717
2026-06-13T13:04:02+08:00228.86839530332682
2026-06-13T13:06:16+08:00230.38502935420743
2026-06-13T15:25:36+08:00232.32566862361384
2026-06-13T15:26:00+08:00232.4041095890411
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2026-06-13T15:26:41+08:00233.45841487279844
2026-06-13T15:26:46+08:00233.65215264187867
2026-06-13T15:27:12+08:00233.67465753424656
2026-06-13T15:27:22+08:00236.0882257012394
2026-06-13T18:27:07+08:00236.09246575342465
2026-06-13T18:27:11+08:00236.09996738421395
2026-06-13T18:27:44+08:00236.5668623613829
2026-06-13T18:28:16+08:00236.59686888454013
2026-06-13T18:28:55+08:00237.52739726027397
2026-06-13T18:29:24+08:00237.5448467058056
2026-06-13T18:30:42+08:00239.81164383561645
2026-06-13T18:30:59+08:00241.91536203522506
2026-06-13T20:09:37+08:00241.95352250489236
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2026-06-13T20:10:37+08:00242.4259621656882
2026-06-13T20:11:02+08:00243.09898891063276
2026-06-13T20:11:07+08:00243.16095890410958
2026-06-13T20:11:23+08:00243.1617742987606
2026-06-13T20:11:27+08:00245.15133724722764
2026-06-13T22:33:05+08:00245.22472276581865
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2026-06-13T22:34:23+08:00249.24804305283757
2026-06-14T09:39:16+08:00249.3538812785388
2026-06-14T09:39:56+08:00249.42824527071102
2026-06-14T09:40:00+08:00250.79076973255056
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捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
+4.6%
→
參與人數
22,746
→
人均手數
81.3
→
認購倍數
109x
109x = 22,746 × 81.3 ÷ 17,033 孖展加權 100% → 7060.4x
1x16308.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.37
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.47
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 7181.21x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.370, 乙組 α=0.470) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌海清智元中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手;非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

機制B

《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%,不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%(因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者,基石投資者除外)。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益,自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 海清智元(01392)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α,覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測,查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析