小马智行－Ｗ 02026中籤預測
小马智行－Ｗ（02026）中籤預測
| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
38.3億 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
29.0億 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
15.7億 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
1.5億 |
| 5 |  长桥 |
1.5億 |
| 6 |  盈立 |
1.0億 |
| 7 |  华盛 |
7500萬 |
| 8 | 卓锐证券 | 3249萬 |
| 10 |  信诚 |
1000萬 |
| 11 |  艾德 |
851萬 |
| 12 |  盈宝 |
642萬 |
| 13 |  TradeGo |
111萬 |
| 14 |  Funderstone |
64萬 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-28T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-10-28T10:21:36+08:00 | 0.005481918936454761 |
| 2025-10-28T10:22:15+08:00 | 0.06306855046940586 |
| 2025-10-28T10:22:43+08:00 | 0.07366163053984984 |
| 2025-10-28T11:06:39+08:00 | 0.10414321844255241 |
| 2025-10-28T11:07:10+08:00 | 0.10632804120708148 |
| 2025-10-28T11:08:00+08:00 | 0.22826763416797977 |
| 2025-10-28T11:08:39+08:00 | 0.46396366573535835 |
| 2025-10-28T12:04:20+08:00 | 0.46911455091961174 |
| 2025-10-28T12:05:22+08:00 | 0.5076998450762039 |
| 2025-10-28T12:06:03+08:00 | 0.603342116762225 |
| 2025-10-28T12:06:45+08:00 | 0.8655208485057136 |
| 2025-10-28T13:40:30+08:00 | 0.8712675944439295 |
| 2025-10-28T13:41:25+08:00 | 0.9176917678526503 |
| 2025-10-28T13:41:49+08:00 | 0.9257425087061877 |
| 2025-10-28T13:42:31+08:00 | 1.046238794507488 |
| 2025-10-28T13:46:28+08:00 | 1.062128414613154 |
| 2025-10-28T14:02:52+08:00 | 1.068179711603395 |
| 2025-10-28T14:04:00+08:00 | 1.0683518491545398 |
| 2025-10-28T14:04:36+08:00 | 1.1213834562572 |
| 2025-10-28T14:06:51+08:00 | 1.3451622727453292 |
| 2025-10-28T14:51:37+08:00 | 1.3661762953350725 |
| 2025-10-28T15:03:13+08:00 | 1.3676725678950226 |
| 2025-10-28T15:04:02+08:00 | 1.3814435719865998 |
| 2025-10-28T15:04:41+08:00 | 1.66764211278982 |
| 2025-10-28T15:06:09+08:00 | 1.736497133247706 |
| 2025-10-28T16:01:20+08:00 | 1.7339680353808875 |
| 2025-10-28T16:07:00+08:00 | 1.7471961441188544 |
| 2025-10-28T16:07:33+08:00 | 1.7601064604547079 |
| 2025-10-28T16:08:09+08:00 | 1.6713894148647397 |
| 2025-10-28T17:10:46+08:00 | 1.6875173792719906 |
| 2025-10-28T17:11:53+08:00 | 1.6879411024748083 |
| 2025-10-28T17:12:57+08:00 | 1.6918870248010487 |
| 2025-10-28T17:14:05+08:00 | 1.7210179949947697 |
| 2025-10-28T18:02:22+08:00 | 1.721547648998292 |
| 2025-10-28T18:03:17+08:00 | 1.7453953205068788 |
| 2025-10-28T18:03:46+08:00 | 1.7512744799459752 |
| 2025-10-28T18:06:45+08:00 | 1.7626620410217027 |
| 2025-10-28T18:07:10+08:00 | 1.7825240661537851 |
| 2025-10-28T19:58:47+08:00 | 2.3121780696759844 |
| 2025-10-28T19:59:06+08:00 | 2.312932826631003 |
| 2025-10-28T19:59:37+08:00 | 2.3163623363038095 |
| 2025-10-28T20:00:08+08:00 | 2.322016392791409 |
| 2025-10-28T20:00:45+08:00 | 2.327312932826631 |
| 2025-10-28T20:03:10+08:00 | 2.3233405278002146 |
| 2025-10-28T20:03:57+08:00 | 2.328014724381298 |
| 2025-10-28T20:05:29+08:00 | 2.6868553117675877 |
| 2025-10-28T21:51:19+08:00 | 2.6870009666185566 |
| 2025-10-28T21:51:51+08:00 | 2.6935289522119676 |
| 2025-10-28T21:52:25+08:00 | 2.7147151123528555 |
| 2025-10-28T22:20:54+08:00 | 2.709233193416401 |
| 2025-10-28T22:21:27+08:00 | 2.7282212894426716 |
| 2025-10-28T22:21:59+08:00 | 2.7679453397068365 |
| 2025-10-29T08:37:41+08:00 | 2.7684882350604467 |
| 2025-10-29T08:37:44+08:00 | 2.7758239430092293 |
| 2025-10-29T08:38:30+08:00 | 2.801829954582169 |
| 2025-10-29T08:38:55+08:00 | 2.8491015743965256 |
| 2025-10-29T08:39:40+08:00 | 3.1231975212192635 |
| 2025-10-29T08:41:33+08:00 | 3.1231975212192635 |
| 2025-10-29T09:09:23+08:00 | 3.1267991684432146 |
| 2025-10-29T09:09:53+08:00 | 3.1276863388991143 |
| 2025-10-29T09:10:33+08:00 | 3.2956925888163555 |
| 2025-10-29T09:11:08+08:00 | 3.3910303094503518 |
| 2025-10-29T09:19:37+08:00 | 3.397161054541121 |
| 2025-10-29T10:08:28+08:00 | 3.4030534553303053 |
| 2025-10-29T10:08:50+08:00 | 3.40411276333735 |
| 2025-10-29T10:09:29+08:00 | 3.4057546907482688 |
| 2025-10-29T10:10:00+08:00 | 3.4348856609419895 |
| 2025-10-29T11:08:26+08:00 | 3.436964552905814 |
| 2025-10-29T11:08:58+08:00 | 3.4372293799075755 |
| 2025-10-29T11:09:31+08:00 | 3.4396128229234253 |
| 2025-10-29T11:10:01+08:00 | 3.4978747633108673 |
| 2025-10-29T12:05:19+08:00 | 3.508467843381311 |
| 2025-10-29T12:05:38+08:00 | 3.5099243918909973 |
| 2025-10-29T12:06:07+08:00 | 3.5102421842931104 |
| 2025-10-29T12:06:41+08:00 | 3.5092093589862423 |
| 2025-10-29T12:07:10+08:00 | 3.5198024390566864 |
| 2025-10-29T13:43:30+08:00 | 3.5198686458071267 |
| 2025-10-29T13:44:06+08:00 | 3.538790535082957 |
| 2025-10-29T13:44:33+08:00 | 3.5390818447848944 |
| 2025-10-29T13:45:18+08:00 | 3.5615921399345876 |
| 2025-10-29T14:11:33+08:00 | 3.563896134849909 |
| 2025-10-29T14:11:52+08:00 | 3.564359582102991 |
| 2025-10-29T14:12:26+08:00 | 3.5644522715536078 |
| 2025-10-29T14:12:54+08:00 | 3.5671005415712185 |
| 2025-10-29T14:14:41+08:00 | 3.56981501833927 |
| 2025-10-29T15:06:51+08:00 | 3.5702387415420875 |
| 2025-10-29T15:07:20+08:00 | 3.572503012407145 |
| 2025-10-29T15:07:52+08:00 | 3.577296381139021 |
| 2025-10-29T15:08:44+08:00 | 3.5892135962182703 |
| 2025-10-29T16:03:53+08:00 | 3.589862422372585 |
| 2025-10-29T16:04:30+08:00 | 3.590246421525139 |
| 2025-10-29T16:04:46+08:00 | 3.5910938679307742 |
| 2025-10-29T16:05:30+08:00 | 3.597714542974802 |
| 2025-10-29T17:04:51+08:00 | 3.5974099919227767 |
| 2025-10-29T17:06:28+08:00 | 3.5952913759086877 |
| 2025-10-29T17:06:34+08:00 | 3.6004952264932935 |
| 2025-10-29T17:07:52+08:00 | 3.596522821466877 |
| 2025-10-29T19:18:53+08:00 | 3.596615510917493 |
| 2025-10-29T19:19:42+08:00 | 3.597039234120311 |
| 2025-10-29T19:19:47+08:00 | 3.595119238357543 |
| 2025-10-29T19:20:55+08:00 | 3.595145721057719 |
| 2025-10-29T19:21:27+08:00 | 3.6006011572939975 |
| 2025-10-29T19:21:49+08:00 | 3.6110485825134733 |
| 2025-10-29T19:22:35+08:00 | 3.6573933078216654 |
| 2025-10-29T19:26:52+08:00 | 3.6581480647766846 |
| 2025-10-29T22:05:13+08:00 | 3.6617629533507237 |
| 2025-10-29T22:05:19+08:00 | 3.685253108406933 |
| 2025-10-29T22:06:06+08:00 | 3.6402325181075463 |
| 2025-10-29T22:06:26+08:00 | 3.6404973451093072 |
| 2025-10-29T22:06:31+08:00 | 3.6455820235431204 |
| 2025-10-29T22:07:26+08:00 | 3.668092318692814 |
| 2025-10-30T08:42:48+08:00 | 3.668092318692814 |
| 2025-10-30T08:43:11+08:00 | 3.66907217859933 |
| 2025-10-30T08:43:14+08:00 | 3.668092318692814 |
| 2025-10-30T08:46:25+08:00 | 3.6716012764661485 |
| 2025-10-30T08:46:28+08:00 | 3.647409329855272 |
| 2025-10-30T08:49:18+08:00 | 3.745395320506879 |
| 2025-10-30T09:06:18+08:00 | 3.746666490115332 |
| 2025-10-30T09:06:44+08:00 | 3.747143178718502 |
| 2025-10-30T09:08:20+08:00 | 3.741820155983104 |
| 2025-10-30T09:08:54+08:00 | 3.7431442909919097 |
| 2025-10-30T09:11:05+08:00 | 3.7446538049019478 |
| 2025-10-30T10:19:24+08:00 | 3.754319990466228 |
| 2025-10-30T10:19:55+08:00 | 3.77309622489109 |
| 2025-10-30T10:20:28+08:00 | 3.778631109227897 |
| 2025-10-30T10:21:05+08:00 | 3.8104103494392287 |
| 2025-10-30T11:24:07+08:00 | 3.81067517644099 |
| 2025-10-30T11:25:10+08:00 | 3.8384820116259055 |
| 2025-10-30T11:25:32+08:00 | 3.8485719203930033 |
| 2025-10-30T11:26:03+08:00 | 3.859059069662743 |
| 2025-10-30T12:12:37+08:00 | 3.8688576687279035 |
| 2025-10-30T12:12:48+08:00 | 3.873796692310748 |
| 2025-10-30T12:13:52+08:00 | 3.8744190357648867 |
| 2025-10-30T12:14:37+08:00 | 3.907522410985024 |
| 2025-10-30T13:44:07+08:00 | 3.9081050303888984 |
| 2025-10-30T13:44:45+08:00 | 3.9106076455555407 |
| 2025-10-30T13:45:19+08:00 | 3.910872472557302 |
| 2025-10-30T13:45:56+08:00 | 3.947948252803856 |
| 2025-10-30T14:04:02+08:00 | 3.9508878325234043 |
| 2025-10-30T14:06:41+08:00 | 3.9523973464334423 |
| 2025-10-30T14:07:32+08:00 | 3.9828127275857046 |
| 2025-10-30T14:08:11+08:00 | 3.9987023476913706 |
| 2025-10-30T14:08:52+08:00 | 4.0185643728234535 |
| 2025-10-30T14:12:31+08:00 | 4.03309013387005 |
| 2025-10-30T15:06:23+08:00 | 4.035764886587836 |
| 2025-10-30T15:06:42+08:00 | 4.03961811946346 |
| 2025-10-30T15:07:31+08:00 | 4.031024483256313 |
| 2025-10-30T15:08:19+08:00 | 4.048238238370784 |
| 2025-10-30T16:02:26+08:00 | 4.050237682234081 |
| 2025-10-30T16:03:52+08:00 | 4.049972855232319 |
| 2025-10-30T16:04:25+08:00 | 4.115067332265197 |
| 2025-10-30T16:05:44+08:00 | 4.124336277326837 |
| 2025-10-30T17:13:25+08:00 | 4.125342619933528 |
| 2025-10-30T17:14:24+08:00 | 4.21832338025185 |
| 2025-10-30T17:15:00+08:00 | 4.353385151150011 |
| 2025-10-30T17:15:20+08:00 | 4.354259080255823 |
| 2025-10-30T17:15:35+08:00 | 4.433707180784153 |
| 2025-10-30T18:05:54+08:00 | 4.434303041538115 |
| 2025-10-30T18:06:59+08:00 | 4.447663563776962 |
| 2025-10-30T18:07:22+08:00 | 4.463672356033421 |
| 2025-10-30T18:08:03+08:00 | 4.667589147389468 |
| 2025-10-30T18:10:49+08:00 | 4.680737808026906 |
| 2025-10-30T20:11:32+08:00 | 4.68404814554892 |
| 2025-10-30T20:14:21+08:00 | 4.692800677957124 |
| 2025-10-30T20:15:04+08:00 | 4.716171660862542 |
| 2025-10-30T20:15:35+08:00 | 4.916116047192172 |
| 2025-10-30T20:16:21+08:00 | 4.928999880827849 |
| 2025-10-30T20:16:38+08:00 | 4.962248910898955 |
| 2025-10-30T20:17:14+08:00 | 5.021834986295203 |
| 2025-10-30T21:49:48+08:00 | 5.020246024284636 |
| 2025-10-30T21:49:53+08:00 | 5.031938136412388 |
| 2025-10-30T21:50:30+08:00 | 5.037234676447611 |
| 2025-10-30T22:32:21+08:00 | 5.020471127236133 |
| 2025-10-30T22:32:50+08:00 | 5.048383893221753 |
| 2025-10-30T22:33:33+08:00 | 5.107969968618001 |
| 2025-10-31T08:37:08+08:00 | 5.2152249043312455 |
| 2025-10-31T08:38:52+08:00 | 5.216562280690139 |
| 2025-10-31T08:38:56+08:00 | 5.219806411461713 |
| 2025-10-31T08:41:28+08:00 | 5.219806411461713 |
| 2025-10-31T08:42:14+08:00 | 5.210458018299546 |
| 2025-10-31T08:42:28+08:00 | 5.218018829199825 |
| 2025-10-31T09:13:26+08:00 | 5.238569404536486 |
| 2025-10-31T09:13:39+08:00 | 5.238940162338952 |
| 2025-10-31T09:13:45+08:00 | 5.245759457634301 |
| 2025-10-31T09:13:52+08:00 | 5.311966208074575 |
| 2025-10-31T10:03:24+08:00 | 5.325207558162631 |
| 2025-10-31T10:04:52+08:00 | 5.326703830722581 |
| 2025-10-31T10:05:41+08:00 | 5.372373247176282 |
| 2025-10-31T10:06:01+08:00 | 5.379907575376385 |
| 2025-10-31T10:06:39+08:00 | 5.455383270878299 |
| 2025-10-31T10:10:47+08:00 | 5.491677811469658 |
| 2025-10-31T11:08:11+08:00 | 5.529018418717972 |
| 2025-10-31T11:08:41+08:00 | 5.537413434673799 |
| 2025-10-31T11:09:24+08:00 | 5.560930072430185 |
| 2025-10-31T11:10:34+08:00 | 5.808543319076813 |
| 2025-10-31T12:09:44+08:00 | 5.84797605963904 |
| 2025-10-31T12:10:47+08:00 | 5.848465989592299 |
| 2025-10-31T12:11:24+08:00 | 5.851379086611671 |
| 2025-10-31T12:12:14+08:00 | 5.888454866858225 |
| 2025-10-31T13:42:15+08:00 | 5.9520133472808885 |
| 2025-10-31T13:42:53+08:00 | 5.952556242634499 |
| 2025-10-31T13:43:47+08:00 | 5.953761205492512 |
| 2025-10-31T13:44:21+08:00 | 5.987314786615643 |
| 2025-10-31T14:10:59+08:00 | 5.992214086148223 |
| 2025-10-31T14:12:18+08:00 | 5.991459329193204 |
| 2025-10-31T14:12:54+08:00 | 5.973477575773626 |
| 2025-10-31T14:13:18+08:00 | 6.013201626037791 |
| 2025-10-31T14:15:55+08:00 | 6.103904874140968 |
| 2025-10-31T15:23:09+08:00 | 6.106433972007786 |
| 2025-10-31T15:23:42+08:00 | 6.116987328027966 |
| 2025-10-31T15:25:41+08:00 | 6.125395585333881 |
| 2025-10-31T15:26:24+08:00 | 6.21676090094146 |
| 2025-10-31T16:14:37+08:00 | 6.232067901643251 |
| 2025-10-31T16:16:57+08:00 | 6.243985116722501 |
| 2025-10-31T17:05:16+08:00 | 6.257226466810556 |
| 2025-10-31T17:06:25+08:00 | 6.28953536102541 |
| 2025-10-31T17:06:50+08:00 | 6.339852491360019 |
| 2025-10-31T17:45:01+08:00 | 7.0548853961149876 |
| 2025-10-31T17:47:13+08:00 | 8.246606904039936 |
| 2025-10-31T18:08:58+08:00 | 8.289628050476027 |
| 2025-10-31T18:09:49+08:00 | 8.31458799539201 |
| 2025-10-31T18:10:18+08:00 | 8.411249851034812 |
| 2025-10-31T18:13:46+08:00 | 8.410362680578912 |
| 2025-10-31T19:20:11+08:00 | 8.409038545570107 |
| 2025-10-31T19:20:37+08:00 | 8.452735000860688 |
| 2025-10-31T20:21:05+08:00 | 8.459090848902955 |
| 2025-10-31T20:22:18+08:00 | 8.464387388938176 |
| 2025-10-31T21:28:15+08:00 | 8.46626766065068 |
| 2025-10-31T21:28:40+08:00 | 8.45170217555382 |
| 2025-10-31T22:06:54+08:00 | 8.458150713046702 |
| 2025-10-31T22:07:21+08:00 | 8.451530038002675 |
| 2025-11-01T08:44:57+08:00 | 8.429800982508176 |
| 2025-11-01T08:45:54+08:00 | 8.429800982508176 |
| 2025-11-01T08:46:48+08:00 | 8.377788959362297 |
| 2025-11-01T08:47:06+08:00 | 8.51814727029568 |
| 2025-11-01T10:14:15+08:00 | 8.551250645515816 |
| 2025-11-01T10:14:42+08:00 | 8.551250645515816 |
| 2025-11-01T10:15:45+08:00 | 8.55809642351134 |
| 2025-11-01T10:16:11+08:00 | 8.592523933740285 |
| 2025-11-01T11:40:51+08:00 | 8.675560440142476 |
| 2025-11-01T11:41:17+08:00 | 8.679532845168893 |
| 2025-11-01T12:40:12+08:00 | 8.688007309225249 |
| 2025-11-01T12:40:39+08:00 | 8.739648574568664 |
| 2025-11-01T13:50:06+08:00 | 8.740390090173594 |
| 2025-11-01T13:50:37+08:00 | 8.76819692535851 |
| 2025-11-01T14:54:44+08:00 | 8.770606851074536 |
| 2025-11-01T14:55:09+08:00 | 8.779875796136174 |
| 2025-11-01T15:29:36+08:00 | 8.783000754756955 |
| 2025-11-01T15:30:04+08:00 | 8.806835184915453 |
| 2025-11-01T16:11:17+08:00 | 8.800214509871427 |
| 2025-11-01T16:11:43+08:00 | 8.801538644880232 |
| 2025-11-01T18:05:24+08:00 | 8.805100568053918 |
| 2025-11-01T18:05:52+08:00 | 8.801392990029264 |
| 2025-11-01T18:06:18+08:00 | 8.810661935090902 |
| 2025-11-01T18:07:29+08:00 | 8.814634340117319 |
| 2025-11-01T19:20:29+08:00 | 8.820420810105798 |
| 2025-11-01T19:21:08+08:00 | 8.828365620158632 |
| 2025-11-01T20:16:02+08:00 | 8.830643132373776 |
| 2025-11-01T20:16:33+08:00 | 8.835939672409 |
| 2025-11-01T21:22:20+08:00 | 8.83620449941076 |
| 2025-11-01T21:22:47+08:00 | 8.840176904437177 |
| 2025-11-01T22:25:09+08:00 | 8.840441731438938 |
| 2025-11-01T22:25:35+08:00 | 8.844414136465353 |
| 2025-11-02T09:37:00+08:00 | 8.909296751896823 |
| 2025-11-02T09:37:24+08:00 | 8.941075992108155 |
| 2025-11-02T09:38:04+08:00 | 8.942280954966169 |
| 2025-11-02T09:38:08+08:00 | 8.977291084598985 |
| 2025-11-02T09:38:12+08:00 | 8.975728605288595 |
| 2025-11-02T12:33:05+08:00 | 8.976059639040797 |
| 2025-11-02T12:33:10+08:00 | 8.989300989128852 |
| 2025-11-02T12:33:15+08:00 | 9.002012685213383 |
| 2025-11-02T12:33:19+08:00 | 9.021874710345466 |
| 2025-11-02T12:33:23+08:00 | 9.023000225102951 |
| 2025-11-02T12:33:28+08:00 | 9.050807060287866 |
| 2025-11-02T15:03:04+08:00 | 9.060076005349506 |
| 2025-11-02T15:03:13+08:00 | 9.083910435508004 |
| 2025-11-02T15:04:44+08:00 | 9.139643278028627 |
| 2025-11-02T15:05:03+08:00 | 9.147641053481813 |
| 2025-11-02T15:05:28+08:00 | 9.146555262774593 |
| 2025-11-02T15:07:48+08:00 | 9.145231127765786 |
| 2025-11-02T19:08:52+08:00 | 9.148223672885688 |
| 2025-11-02T19:08:57+08:00 | 9.151295666106115 |
| 2025-11-02T19:09:02+08:00 | 9.146926020577059 |
| 2025-11-02T19:09:08+08:00 | 9.144277750559446 |
| 2025-11-02T19:16:34+08:00 | 9.174732855761974 |
| 2025-11-02T19:16:48+08:00 | 9.215781041034944 |
| 2025-11-02T19:16:53+08:00 | 9.247560281246276 |
| 2025-11-02T19:16:58+08:00 | 9.27007057639597 |
| 2025-11-03T06:40:00+08:00 | 9.472822128944268 |
| 2025-11-03T06:40:19+08:00 | 9.571456945750189 |
| 2025-11-03T06:40:23+08:00 | 9.578170310244833 |
| 2025-11-03T06:40:29+08:00 | 9.579666582804784 |
| 2025-11-03T06:40:44+08:00 | 9.607473417989699 |
| 2025-11-03T06:40:48+08:00 | 9.648521603262669 |
| 2025-11-03T06:40:59+08:00 | 9.713404218694137 |
| 2025-11-03T08:36:27+08:00 | 10.031196620807458 |
| 2025-11-03T08:37:05+08:00 | 10.031196620807458 |
| 2025-11-03T08:37:35+08:00 | 10.058526767389203 |
| 2025-11-03T09:08:57+08:00 | 10.059797936997656 |
| 2025-11-03T09:10:22+08:00 | 10.314031858688312 |
| 2025-11-03T09:28:33+08:00 | 10.340514558864422 |
| 2025-11-03T09:50:08+08:00 | 11.664649567669919 |
| 2025-11-03T10:07:18+08:00 | 11.665497014075555 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|
| 時間 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|
以實際認購倍數 15.88x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.562, 乙組 α=0.662) 為基準，對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數
| 申購手數 | 認購金額(HKD) | 實際期望中籤 | 預測期望中籤 | 偏差 |
|---|
小马智行－Ｗ中籤預測矩陣行為申購檔位，列為不同認購倍數，數值為期望中籤手數，綠色背景表示穩中（≥1手）
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 為發行人分配偏好係數，描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。
本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致：中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑，與其他網站可能使用的不同定義（如「申購人數中籤比例」）有本質區別。
期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數
例：某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本頁展示 小马智行－Ｗ（02026）的中籤預測：基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導，公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數；其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準，再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準；隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權；臨近截止（進度約九成後）默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 356 隻 IPO 的 10897 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配，估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數，並結合分配手法係數 α（人均分配至比例分配）給出區間。
數據來源：港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告；孖展數據（孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細）來自捷利交易寶（TradeGo），倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商，捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新；中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。
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