麦科医药－Ｂ 02335
新股中籤預測
20.5805.07%( -1.100 )
11月13日 · 收市數據，非即時 · 香港交易所
基於相似IPO匹配的期望中籤預測
新股中籤預測| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
397.6億 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
232.0億 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
83.0億 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
30.0億 |
| 5 |  致富 |
17.3億 |
| 6 |  华盛 |
12.0億 |
| 7 |  复星 |
9.9億 |
| 8 |  熊猫 |
9.9億 |
| 9 |  盈立 |
7.9億 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-15T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-06-15T10:10:10+08:00 | 0.013779527559055118 |
| 2026-06-15T10:10:17+08:00 | 0.022883858267716536 |
| 2026-06-15T10:10:24+08:00 | 0.023211942257217847 |
| 2026-06-15T10:10:31+08:00 | 0.031414041994750654 |
| 2026-06-15T11:07:44+08:00 | 0.03674540682414698 |
| 2026-06-15T11:08:43+08:00 | 0.03937007874015748 |
| 2026-06-15T11:09:55+08:00 | 0.05561023622047244 |
| 2026-06-15T11:11:20+08:00 | 0.09662073490813648 |
| 2026-06-15T12:10:18+08:00 | 0.11433727034120734 |
| 2026-06-15T12:11:20+08:00 | 0.11794619422572178 |
| 2026-06-15T12:11:52+08:00 | 0.12262139107611549 |
| 2026-06-15T12:12:19+08:00 | 0.1390255905511811 |
| 2026-06-15T12:14:07+08:00 | 0.1533792650918635 |
| 2026-06-15T12:15:07+08:00 | 0.15592191601049868 |
| 2026-06-15T13:46:26+08:00 | 0.15805446194225722 |
| 2026-06-15T13:47:41+08:00 | 0.16404199475065617 |
| 2026-06-15T13:48:15+08:00 | 0.16847112860892388 |
| 2026-06-15T13:49:25+08:00 | 0.16953740157480315 |
| 2026-06-15T13:49:56+08:00 | 0.17068569553805774 |
| 2026-06-15T14:01:20+08:00 | 0.17273622047244094 |
| 2026-06-15T14:02:01+08:00 | 0.17372047244094488 |
| 2026-06-15T14:03:32+08:00 | 0.17765748031496062 |
| 2026-06-15T14:04:00+08:00 | 0.17954396325459318 |
| 2026-06-15T14:05:13+08:00 | 0.20505249343832022 |
| 2026-06-15T14:07:25+08:00 | 0.2053805774278215 |
| 2026-06-15T15:09:26+08:00 | 0.23113517060367453 |
| 2026-06-15T15:11:39+08:00 | 0.2339238845144357 |
| 2026-06-15T15:12:09+08:00 | 0.23613845144356954 |
| 2026-06-15T15:12:36+08:00 | 0.23671259842519685 |
| 2026-06-15T15:13:10+08:00 | 0.400754593175853 |
| 2026-06-15T16:12:43+08:00 | 0.4091207349081365 |
| 2026-06-15T16:14:26+08:00 | 0.5125492125984252 |
| 2026-06-15T16:15:09+08:00 | 0.5128772965879265 |
| 2026-06-15T16:15:47+08:00 | 0.5138615485564304 |
| 2026-06-15T16:16:19+08:00 | 0.5384678477690289 |
| 2026-06-15T16:34:53+08:00 | 0.5589730971128609 |
| 2026-06-15T17:04:41+08:00 | 0.5734087926509186 |
| 2026-06-15T17:05:48+08:00 | 0.567503280839895 |
| 2026-06-15T17:06:14+08:00 | 0.572752624671916 |
| 2026-06-15T17:06:42+08:00 | 0.6163877952755905 |
| 2026-06-15T17:07:37+08:00 | 0.9444717847769029 |
| 2026-06-15T18:08:12+08:00 | 0.9603838582677166 |
| 2026-06-15T18:09:03+08:00 | 3.7490977690288716 |
| 2026-06-15T18:10:11+08:00 | 3.7346620734908136 |
| 2026-06-15T18:11:18+08:00 | 3.7533628608923886 |
| 2026-06-15T18:11:32+08:00 | 3.7568897637795278 |
| 2026-06-15T18:12:39+08:00 | 3.757463910761155 |
| 2026-06-15T18:14:30+08:00 | 3.8722933070866143 |
| 2026-06-15T18:16:49+08:00 | 3.901082677165354 |
| 2026-06-15T20:19:52+08:00 | 3.9119094488188977 |
| 2026-06-15T20:20:59+08:00 | 3.923720472440945 |
| 2026-06-15T20:22:19+08:00 | 4.106135170603674 |
| 2026-06-15T20:22:55+08:00 | 4.124507874015748 |
| 2026-06-15T20:23:52+08:00 | 4.147391732283465 |
| 2026-06-15T20:24:39+08:00 | 4.623113517060368 |
| 2026-06-15T20:25:06+08:00 | 4.705134514435696 |
| 2026-06-15T21:47:39+08:00 | 4.70874343832021 |
| 2026-06-15T22:06:28+08:00 | 4.848179133858268 |
| 2026-06-15T22:06:38+08:00 | 4.85744750656168 |
| 2026-06-15T22:07:33+08:00 | 4.885990813648294 |
| 2026-06-15T22:08:01+08:00 | 5.197670603674541 |
| 2026-06-16T08:51:04+08:00 | 5.197670603674541 |
| 2026-06-16T08:52:01+08:00 | 5.213418635170604 |
| 2026-06-16T08:52:06+08:00 | 5.226952099737533 |
| 2026-06-16T08:52:29+08:00 | 5.2878116797900265 |
| 2026-06-16T08:52:32+08:00 | 5.307496719160105 |
| 2026-06-16T08:54:32+08:00 | 5.791420603674541 |
| 2026-06-16T09:00:40+08:00 | 5.869750656167979 |
| 2026-06-16T09:07:27+08:00 | 6.365731627296588 |
| 2026-06-16T09:09:40+08:00 | 6.436023622047244 |
| 2026-06-16T09:10:13+08:00 | 6.458087270341207 |
| 2026-06-16T09:10:52+08:00 | 6.480232939632546 |
| 2026-06-16T09:11:23+08:00 | 6.619668635170604 |
| 2026-06-16T09:11:58+08:00 | 6.642060367454068 |
| 2026-06-16T09:30:41+08:00 | 6.748687664041995 |
| 2026-06-16T10:20:49+08:00 | 6.755577427821522 |
| 2026-06-16T10:21:48+08:00 | 6.760334645669292 |
| 2026-06-16T10:22:23+08:00 | 6.763943569553806 |
| 2026-06-16T10:22:52+08:00 | 6.960793963254593 |
| 2026-06-16T10:23:41+08:00 | 6.96505905511811 |
| 2026-06-16T11:15:32+08:00 | 6.975721784776903 |
| 2026-06-16T11:15:57+08:00 | 6.978920603674541 |
| 2026-06-16T11:16:16+08:00 | 6.984251968503937 |
| 2026-06-16T11:17:00+08:00 | 7.003280839895013 |
| 2026-06-16T11:17:25+08:00 | 7.224737532808399 |
| 2026-06-16T11:17:46+08:00 | 7.446194225721785 |
| 2026-06-16T12:04:07+08:00 | 7.4496391076115485 |
| 2026-06-16T12:05:47+08:00 | 7.433973097112861 |
| 2026-06-16T12:06:15+08:00 | 7.4379101049868765 |
| 2026-06-16T12:07:18+08:00 | 7.439140419947506 |
| 2026-06-16T12:08:17+08:00 | 7.472522965879265 |
| 2026-06-16T12:08:38+08:00 | 7.5463418635170605 |
| 2026-06-16T13:44:38+08:00 | 7.552247375328084 |
| 2026-06-16T13:45:27+08:00 | 7.606135170603674 |
| 2026-06-16T13:45:52+08:00 | 7.606463254593176 |
| 2026-06-16T13:46:15+08:00 | 7.59005905511811 |
| 2026-06-16T13:46:47+08:00 | 7.591781496062992 |
| 2026-06-16T13:47:18+08:00 | 7.645669291338582 |
| 2026-06-16T14:01:08+08:00 | 7.866305774278215 |
| 2026-06-16T14:01:59+08:00 | 7.868028215223097 |
| 2026-06-16T14:03:44+08:00 | 7.910515091863517 |
| 2026-06-16T14:07:25+08:00 | 7.947752624671916 |
| 2026-06-16T14:07:54+08:00 | 7.948408792650919 |
| 2026-06-16T14:08:10+08:00 | 8.137057086614174 |
| 2026-06-16T15:08:34+08:00 | 8.13713910761155 |
| 2026-06-16T15:08:55+08:00 | 8.154363517060368 |
| 2026-06-16T15:09:18+08:00 | 8.17995406824147 |
| 2026-06-16T15:09:41+08:00 | 8.187992125984252 |
| 2026-06-16T15:10:43+08:00 | 8.614501312335959 |
| 2026-06-16T16:00:59+08:00 | 8.634350393700787 |
| 2026-06-16T16:01:42+08:00 | 8.64255249343832 |
| 2026-06-16T16:04:45+08:00 | 8.647801837270341 |
| 2026-06-16T16:05:01+08:00 | 8.64870406824147 |
| 2026-06-16T16:05:33+08:00 | 8.650918635170603 |
| 2026-06-16T16:06:11+08:00 | 8.749343832020998 |
| 2026-06-16T17:20:28+08:00 | 8.759186351706036 |
| 2026-06-16T17:21:31+08:00 | 8.770751312335959 |
| 2026-06-16T17:22:05+08:00 | 8.774606299212598 |
| 2026-06-16T17:22:32+08:00 | 8.79478346456693 |
| 2026-06-16T17:23:24+08:00 | 8.802001312335959 |
| 2026-06-16T17:23:53+08:00 | 9.269520997375327 |
| 2026-06-16T18:03:36+08:00 | 9.330872703412073 |
| 2026-06-16T18:04:05+08:00 | 13.103838582677165 |
| 2026-06-16T18:04:30+08:00 | 13.107857611548557 |
| 2026-06-16T18:04:53+08:00 | 13.11482939632546 |
| 2026-06-16T18:05:14+08:00 | 13.117043963254593 |
| 2026-06-16T18:05:49+08:00 | 13.118438320209973 |
| 2026-06-16T18:06:27+08:00 | 13.151246719160104 |
| 2026-06-16T18:08:04+08:00 | 13.838008530183727 |
| 2026-06-16T20:14:59+08:00 | 13.840223097112862 |
| 2026-06-16T20:15:49+08:00 | 13.849327427821523 |
| 2026-06-16T20:27:07+08:00 | 13.855643044619423 |
| 2026-06-16T20:28:07+08:00 | 13.866551837270341 |
| 2026-06-16T20:29:02+08:00 | 13.909120734908136 |
| 2026-06-16T20:30:26+08:00 | 13.966535433070867 |
| 2026-06-16T20:30:46+08:00 | 14.171587926509186 |
| 2026-06-16T21:56:28+08:00 | 14.172900262467191 |
| 2026-06-16T22:06:42+08:00 | 14.361548556430446 |
| 2026-06-16T22:06:51+08:00 | 14.509432414698162 |
| 2026-06-16T22:07:19+08:00 | 14.511811023622048 |
| 2026-06-16T22:07:28+08:00 | 14.542404855643044 |
| 2026-06-16T22:07:55+08:00 | 14.698244750656167 |
| 2026-06-17T09:17:12+08:00 | 14.764435695538058 |
| 2026-06-17T09:17:19+08:00 | 14.765419947506562 |
| 2026-06-17T09:17:32+08:00 | 14.765419947506562 |
| 2026-06-17T09:17:38+08:00 | 14.964730971128608 |
| 2026-06-17T09:17:45+08:00 | 14.99844160104987 |
| 2026-06-17T09:17:51+08:00 | 15.523375984251969 |
| 2026-06-17T09:18:15+08:00 | 15.64730971128609 |
| 2026-06-17T09:18:27+08:00 | 15.719160104986877 |
| 2026-06-17T09:18:33+08:00 | 15.723015091863518 |
| 2026-06-17T09:19:36+08:00 | 15.777723097112862 |
| 2026-06-17T09:19:42+08:00 | 15.805528215223097 |
| 2026-06-17T09:19:49+08:00 | 16.273047900262466 |
| 2026-06-17T10:10:01+08:00 | 16.307004593175854 |
| 2026-06-17T10:10:07+08:00 | 16.310695538057743 |
| 2026-06-17T10:10:20+08:00 | 16.288549868766403 |
| 2026-06-17T10:10:27+08:00 | 16.298310367454068 |
| 2026-06-17T10:10:37+08:00 | 22.835383858267715 |
| 2026-06-17T11:16:07+08:00 | 22.910515091863516 |
| 2026-06-17T11:16:31+08:00 | 22.92691929133858 |
| 2026-06-17T11:17:30+08:00 | 23.029035433070867 |
| 2026-06-17T11:18:40+08:00 | 23.0309219160105 |
| 2026-06-17T11:19:22+08:00 | 23.046751968503937 |
| 2026-06-17T11:20:08+08:00 | 23.481463254593177 |
| 2026-06-17T12:14:22+08:00 | 23.538713910761153 |
| 2026-06-17T12:15:15+08:00 | 23.56077755905512 |
| 2026-06-17T12:16:53+08:00 | 23.69996719160105 |
| 2026-06-17T12:19:16+08:00 | 23.716535433070867 |
| 2026-06-17T12:20:08+08:00 | 23.788139763779526 |
| 2026-06-17T12:20:53+08:00 | 24.17363845144357 |
| 2026-06-17T13:43:37+08:00 | 24.208497375328083 |
| 2026-06-17T13:44:38+08:00 | 24.21596128608924 |
| 2026-06-17T13:46:16+08:00 | 24.286581364829395 |
| 2026-06-17T13:46:26+08:00 | 24.42749343832021 |
| 2026-06-17T13:48:23+08:00 | 24.42937992125984 |
| 2026-06-17T13:50:08+08:00 | 24.5688156167979 |
| 2026-06-17T14:08:16+08:00 | 24.63886154855643 |
| 2026-06-17T14:09:01+08:00 | 24.642060367454068 |
| 2026-06-17T14:10:50+08:00 | 24.686187664041995 |
| 2026-06-17T14:10:58+08:00 | 24.694553805774277 |
| 2026-06-17T14:11:52+08:00 | 24.69627624671916 |
| 2026-06-17T14:12:43+08:00 | 25.557496719160106 |
| 2026-06-17T14:14:53+08:00 | 26.43348097112861 |
| 2026-06-17T15:07:21+08:00 | 26.44890091863517 |
| 2026-06-17T15:07:54+08:00 | 26.4501312335958 |
| 2026-06-17T15:08:45+08:00 | 26.47293307086614 |
| 2026-06-17T15:09:33+08:00 | 26.508366141732285 |
| 2026-06-17T15:10:14+08:00 | 26.52952755905512 |
| 2026-06-17T15:11:21+08:00 | 27.70242782152231 |
| 2026-06-17T16:27:24+08:00 | 27.71522309711286 |
| 2026-06-17T16:28:22+08:00 | 28.583825459317584 |
| 2026-06-17T16:31:36+08:00 | 33.99040354330709 |
| 2026-06-17T16:32:11+08:00 | 34.00295275590551 |
| 2026-06-17T16:32:56+08:00 | 43.148293963254595 |
| 2026-06-17T16:34:39+08:00 | 44.050524934383205 |
| 2026-06-17T16:35:37+08:00 | 44.10687335958005 |
| 2026-06-17T16:50:47+08:00 | 45.177247375328086 |
| 2026-06-17T17:01:39+08:00 | 46.73728674540683 |
| 2026-06-17T17:02:39+08:00 | 47.398129921259844 |
| 2026-06-17T17:04:36+08:00 | 52.45718503937008 |
| 2026-06-17T17:05:11+08:00 | 52.463582677165356 |
| 2026-06-17T17:06:25+08:00 | 54.04125656167979 |
| 2026-06-17T17:07:01+08:00 | 79.48416994750656 |
| 2026-06-17T18:04:01+08:00 | 79.86802821522309 |
| 2026-06-17T18:04:50+08:00 | 80.79232283464567 |
| 2026-06-17T18:07:15+08:00 | 81.54429133858268 |
| 2026-06-17T18:08:03+08:00 | 82.68692585301837 |
| 2026-06-17T18:08:26+08:00 | 86.52944553805774 |
| 2026-06-17T18:09:16+08:00 | 102.37590223097114 |
| 2026-06-17T18:13:34+08:00 | 108.79158464566929 |
| 2026-06-17T20:22:19+08:00 | 139.13935367454067 |
| 2026-06-17T20:23:07+08:00 | 141.0873523622047 |
| 2026-06-17T20:24:19+08:00 | 141.4767880577428 |
| 2026-06-17T20:25:23+08:00 | 142.13918963254594 |
| 2026-06-17T20:26:32+08:00 | 146.1326279527559 |
| 2026-06-17T20:32:17+08:00 | 146.9949967191601 |
| 2026-06-17T20:33:06+08:00 | 168.8946030183727 |
| 2026-06-17T22:23:36+08:00 | 170.0209153543307 |
| 2026-06-17T22:25:09+08:00 | 172.62089895013122 |
| 2026-06-17T22:25:58+08:00 | 173.28978018372703 |
| 2026-06-17T22:26:17+08:00 | 175.01845472440945 |
| 2026-06-17T22:26:58+08:00 | 183.11327099737534 |
| 2026-06-17T22:28:30+08:00 | 231.62048884514437 |
| 2026-06-18T09:05:09+08:00 | 238.125656167979 |
| 2026-06-18T09:05:15+08:00 | 239.00451115485563 |
| 2026-06-18T09:05:21+08:00 | 242.04749015748033 |
| 2026-06-18T09:05:41+08:00 | 242.04749015748033 |
| 2026-06-18T09:05:48+08:00 | 260.7299868766404 |
| 2026-06-18T09:05:53+08:00 | 262.8341535433071 |
| 2026-06-18T09:06:06+08:00 | 367.9604658792651 |
| 2026-06-18T09:06:19+08:00 | 370.24811351706035 |
| 2026-06-18T09:06:32+08:00 | 377.87073490813646 |
| 2026-06-18T09:06:38+08:00 | 381.8077427821522 |
| 2026-06-18T09:06:51+08:00 | 385.6069553805774 |
| 2026-06-18T09:06:57+08:00 | 387.41543635170603 |
| 2026-06-18T09:07:03+08:00 | 387.6672408136483 |
| 2026-06-18T09:07:11+08:00 | 410.87098097112863 |
| 2026-06-18T10:01:26+08:00 | 411.63377624671915 |
| 2026-06-18T10:01:42+08:00 | 413.16395997375326 |
| 2026-06-18T10:10:22+08:00 | 423.71448490813646 |
| 2026-06-18T10:10:28+08:00 | 485.52550853018374 |
| 2026-06-18T10:46:54+08:00 | 638.9047736220473 |
| 2026-06-18T11:22:12+08:00 | 639.8280839895014 |
| 2026-06-18T14:21:55+08:00 | 663.28 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|
| 時間 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|
以實際認購倍數 1032.91x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.537, 乙組 α=0.637) 為基準，對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數
| 申購手數 | 認購金額(HKD) | 實際期望中籤 | 預測期望中籤 | 偏差 |
|---|
麦科医药－Ｂ中籤預測矩陣行為申購檔位，列為不同認購倍數，數值為期望中籤手數，綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手；非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。
機制B
《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%，不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%（因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者，基石投資者除外）。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益，自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。
α 為發行人分配偏好係數，描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。
本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致：中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑，與其他網站可能使用的不同定義（如「申購人數中籤比例」）有本質區別。
期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數
例：某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本頁展示 麦科医药－Ｂ（02335）的中籤預測：基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導，公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數；其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準，再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準；隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權；臨近截止（進度約九成後）默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配，估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數，並結合分配手法係數 α（人均分配至比例分配）給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α，覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測，查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源：港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告；孖展數據（孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細）來自捷利交易寶（TradeGo），倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商，捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新；中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。
