华芢生物－Ｂ 02396
新股中籤預測
3.5009.37%( +0.300 )
11月13日 · 收市數據，非即時 · 香港交易所
基於相似IPO匹配的期望中籤預測
新股中籤預測| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
342.2億 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
80.0億 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
63.3億 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
23.0億 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
7.9億 |
| 6 |  长桥 |
6.7億 |
| 7 |  盈立 |
4.2億 |
| 8 |  信诚 |
4.0億 |
| 9 | 卓锐证券 | 3.3億 |
| 11 |  盈宝 |
6261萬 |
| 12 |  艾德 |
5815萬 |
| 13 |  TradeGo |
2288萬 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-12T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-12-12T10:19:25+08:00 | 0.0009997778271495224 |
| 2025-12-12T10:19:31+08:00 | 0.42979337924905575 |
| 2025-12-12T10:19:38+08:00 | 1.5073317040657632 |
| 2025-12-12T11:12:27+08:00 | 1.807153965785381 |
| 2025-12-12T11:13:25+08:00 | 1.8649189069095757 |
| 2025-12-12T11:13:58+08:00 | 2.911130859808931 |
| 2025-12-12T11:15:31+08:00 | 6.932459453454788 |
| 2025-12-12T12:04:54+08:00 | 7.105754276827372 |
| 2025-12-12T12:05:28+08:00 | 7.323039324594535 |
| 2025-12-12T12:06:00+08:00 | 7.785492112863808 |
| 2025-12-12T12:06:51+08:00 | 9.062986003110419 |
| 2025-12-12T13:44:29+08:00 | 9.398355920906464 |
| 2025-12-12T13:45:07+08:00 | 11.58675849811153 |
| 2025-12-12T13:45:33+08:00 | 11.766607420573205 |
| 2025-12-12T13:46:11+08:00 | 11.810264385692069 |
| 2025-12-12T14:01:42+08:00 | 11.83492557209509 |
| 2025-12-12T14:03:56+08:00 | 12.26905132192846 |
| 2025-12-12T14:07:08+08:00 | 12.47600533214841 |
| 2025-12-12T14:07:45+08:00 | 14.986558542546101 |
| 2025-12-12T14:08:05+08:00 | 15.107309486780716 |
| 2025-12-12T15:22:52+08:00 | 15.390468784714509 |
| 2025-12-12T15:23:24+08:00 | 15.557431681848477 |
| 2025-12-12T15:24:11+08:00 | 15.56398578093757 |
| 2025-12-12T15:24:57+08:00 | 19.496445234392358 |
| 2025-12-12T16:11:39+08:00 | 19.513885803154853 |
| 2025-12-12T16:12:12+08:00 | 19.629860031104197 |
| 2025-12-12T16:12:58+08:00 | 21.451677405021105 |
| 2025-12-12T16:13:32+08:00 | 22.530993112641635 |
| 2025-12-12T16:16:30+08:00 | 22.64207953788047 |
| 2025-12-12T17:19:47+08:00 | 22.795600977560543 |
| 2025-12-12T17:20:27+08:00 | 22.800822039546766 |
| 2025-12-12T17:21:20+08:00 | 23.274494556765163 |
| 2025-12-12T17:22:09+08:00 | 25.540657631637416 |
| 2025-12-12T17:34:58+08:00 | 27.54021328593646 |
| 2025-12-12T18:00:50+08:00 | 27.602532770495447 |
| 2025-12-12T18:10:48+08:00 | 27.710175516551878 |
| 2025-12-12T18:11:09+08:00 | 29.43779160186625 |
| 2025-12-12T18:12:19+08:00 | 33.99233503665852 |
| 2025-12-12T18:14:28+08:00 | 35.368918018218174 |
| 2025-12-12T20:20:52+08:00 | 35.41090868695845 |
| 2025-12-12T20:21:14+08:00 | 35.81393023772495 |
| 2025-12-12T20:21:24+08:00 | 37.60853143745834 |
| 2025-12-12T20:22:22+08:00 | 41.618751388580314 |
| 2025-12-12T20:22:33+08:00 | 41.95889802266163 |
| 2025-12-12T20:22:48+08:00 | 42.684403465896466 |
| 2025-12-12T20:23:47+08:00 | 45.5726505221062 |
| 2025-12-12T21:10:42+08:00 | 45.67251721839591 |
| 2025-12-12T21:10:54+08:00 | 46.07931570762053 |
| 2025-12-12T21:11:32+08:00 | 49.878471450788716 |
| 2025-12-12T22:19:00+08:00 | 49.868362586091976 |
| 2025-12-12T22:19:11+08:00 | 50.251388580315485 |
| 2025-12-12T22:20:14+08:00 | 52.81748500333259 |
| 2025-12-13T10:36:32+08:00 | 52.81748500333259 |
| 2025-12-13T10:39:10+08:00 | 52.9050211064208 |
| 2025-12-13T10:39:34+08:00 | 52.92568318151522 |
| 2025-12-13T10:40:39+08:00 | 52.8970228838036 |
| 2025-12-13T10:41:07+08:00 | 55.05187736058654 |
| 2025-12-13T10:41:28+08:00 | 55.14241279715619 |
| 2025-12-13T10:42:15+08:00 | 62.81848478115974 |
| 2025-12-13T10:42:27+08:00 | 65.05132192846034 |
| 2025-12-13T11:35:24+08:00 | 65.0557653854699 |
| 2025-12-13T11:35:42+08:00 | 65.07520550988669 |
| 2025-12-13T11:35:46+08:00 | 65.16751832926016 |
| 2025-12-13T11:36:26+08:00 | 66.17840479893357 |
| 2025-12-13T14:45:31+08:00 | 66.18273716951788 |
| 2025-12-13T14:46:25+08:00 | 66.21761830704288 |
| 2025-12-13T14:47:26+08:00 | 66.41835147744946 |
| 2025-12-13T14:48:25+08:00 | 67.51810708731394 |
| 2025-12-13T14:48:36+08:00 | 67.90690957564986 |
| 2025-12-13T14:48:47+08:00 | 68.07353921350811 |
| 2025-12-13T15:59:18+08:00 | 68.07420573205954 |
| 2025-12-13T15:59:37+08:00 | 68.17207287269495 |
| 2025-12-13T16:00:21+08:00 | 68.60530993112641 |
| 2025-12-13T16:00:32+08:00 | 68.60597644967785 |
| 2025-12-13T16:45:09+08:00 | 69.12352810486558 |
| 2025-12-13T16:46:00+08:00 | 69.75672072872695 |
| 2025-12-13T17:57:06+08:00 | 69.75938680293268 |
| 2025-12-13T17:57:17+08:00 | 69.86391912908243 |
| 2025-12-13T17:57:53+08:00 | 70.76371917351699 |
| 2025-12-13T18:28:40+08:00 | 70.80504332370585 |
| 2025-12-13T18:28:55+08:00 | 70.84347922683848 |
| 2025-12-13T18:29:35+08:00 | 71.01010886469673 |
| 2025-12-13T19:22:32+08:00 | 71.01210842035103 |
| 2025-12-13T19:22:40+08:00 | 71.04643412574984 |
| 2025-12-13T19:23:19+08:00 | 71.32415018884693 |
| 2025-12-13T20:14:16+08:00 | 71.06231948455898 |
| 2025-12-13T20:14:54+08:00 | 71.75105532103977 |
| 2025-12-13T22:15:38+08:00 | 72.29626749611198 |
| 2025-12-13T22:16:16+08:00 | 72.48511441901799 |
| 2025-12-13T22:16:19+08:00 | 72.42668295934237 |
| 2025-12-13T22:16:23+08:00 | 72.49322372806043 |
| 2025-12-13T22:16:52+08:00 | 73.72628304821151 |
| 2025-12-14T10:08:52+08:00 | 73.78293712508332 |
| 2025-12-14T10:08:56+08:00 | 73.78393690291047 |
| 2025-12-14T10:12:03+08:00 | 75.06143079315707 |
| 2025-12-14T10:12:07+08:00 | 75.01699622306154 |
| 2025-12-14T10:12:11+08:00 | 75.9945567651633 |
| 2025-12-14T10:17:13+08:00 | 76.27016218618085 |
| 2025-12-14T10:21:28+08:00 | 76.29926682959342 |
| 2025-12-14T12:45:37+08:00 | 78.38769162408353 |
| 2025-12-14T12:45:59+08:00 | 79.18751388580316 |
| 2025-12-14T12:46:25+08:00 | 79.18440346589647 |
| 2025-12-14T12:49:28+08:00 | 79.19284603421463 |
| 2025-12-14T12:49:33+08:00 | 79.23328149300156 |
| 2025-12-14T12:50:39+08:00 | 79.23561430793157 |
| 2025-12-14T12:51:00+08:00 | 79.23750277716063 |
| 2025-12-14T15:48:41+08:00 | 79.23761386358586 |
| 2025-12-14T15:48:50+08:00 | 79.24127971561875 |
| 2025-12-14T15:48:55+08:00 | 79.24161297489447 |
| 2025-12-14T15:53:10+08:00 | 79.5526549655632 |
| 2025-12-14T15:53:25+08:00 | 79.84147967118417 |
| 2025-12-14T15:53:53+08:00 | 80.48578093756943 |
| 2025-12-14T16:01:43+08:00 | 80.47389469006887 |
| 2025-12-14T16:01:47+08:00 | 80.62408353699178 |
| 2025-12-14T16:01:51+08:00 | 80.64341257498333 |
| 2025-12-14T16:04:57+08:00 | 80.64518995778715 |
| 2025-12-14T16:05:01+08:00 | 80.64618973561431 |
| 2025-12-14T16:05:08+08:00 | 80.6467451677405 |
| 2025-12-14T16:05:11+08:00 | 80.6473005998667 |
| 2025-12-14T16:09:37+08:00 | 80.62908242612752 |
| 2025-12-14T16:10:55+08:00 | 81.08453676960676 |
| 2025-12-14T16:11:14+08:00 | 81.08464785603199 |
| 2025-12-14T21:03:37+08:00 | 81.02854921128637 |
| 2025-12-14T21:03:41+08:00 | 81.08575872028437 |
| 2025-12-14T21:03:44+08:00 | 81.44490113308154 |
| 2025-12-14T21:03:48+08:00 | 81.63119306820707 |
| 2025-12-14T21:03:52+08:00 | 81.63463674738946 |
| 2025-12-14T21:06:35+08:00 | 81.63208175960898 |
| 2025-12-14T21:07:58+08:00 | 82.88735836480782 |
| 2025-12-14T21:08:02+08:00 | 83.0984225727616 |
| 2025-12-14T21:08:06+08:00 | 83.26505221061986 |
| 2025-12-14T21:08:11+08:00 | 83.18729171295267 |
| 2025-12-14T21:08:15+08:00 | 83.74272383914686 |
| 2025-12-14T21:11:52+08:00 | 83.74661186403021 |
| 2025-12-14T21:12:18+08:00 | 83.74872250610976 |
| 2025-12-14T21:12:40+08:00 | 83.75061097533882 |
| 2025-12-15T08:43:10+08:00 | 83.72228393690291 |
| 2025-12-15T08:43:13+08:00 | 83.75272161741835 |
| 2025-12-15T08:43:16+08:00 | 83.7528327038436 |
| 2025-12-15T08:45:15+08:00 | 84.42223950233281 |
| 2025-12-15T08:45:44+08:00 | 85.25538769162408 |
| 2025-12-15T08:45:46+08:00 | 85.97744945567652 |
| 2025-12-15T08:47:39+08:00 | 85.97744945567652 |
| 2025-12-15T09:17:56+08:00 | 85.84236836258609 |
| 2025-12-15T09:18:17+08:00 | 85.84259053543657 |
| 2025-12-15T09:18:54+08:00 | 87.63108198178183 |
| 2025-12-15T09:19:37+08:00 | 89.29737836036436 |
| 2025-12-15T09:21:18+08:00 | 89.32415018884693 |
| 2025-12-15T09:22:27+08:00 | 91.12075094423462 |
| 2025-12-15T10:16:22+08:00 | 91.30759831148633 |
| 2025-12-15T10:17:11+08:00 | 91.26682959342368 |
| 2025-12-15T10:18:07+08:00 | 92.18284825594313 |
| 2025-12-15T10:18:52+08:00 | 95.48211508553655 |
| 2025-12-15T11:15:39+08:00 | 96.0039991113086 |
| 2025-12-15T11:16:31+08:00 | 96.1741835147745 |
| 2025-12-15T11:17:38+08:00 | 96.26505221061986 |
| 2025-12-15T11:18:54+08:00 | 101.20839813374806 |
| 2025-12-15T12:05:12+08:00 | 101.2302821595201 |
| 2025-12-15T12:06:00+08:00 | 101.35236614085758 |
| 2025-12-15T12:07:18+08:00 | 102.06965118862475 |
| 2025-12-15T12:08:09+08:00 | 107.43512552766052 |
| 2025-12-15T13:44:53+08:00 | 107.54343479226839 |
| 2025-12-15T13:46:29+08:00 | 107.84992223950233 |
| 2025-12-15T13:47:44+08:00 | 109.69395689846701 |
| 2025-12-15T13:50:40+08:00 | 109.9342368362586 |
| 2025-12-15T13:51:38+08:00 | 110.32303932459453 |
| 2025-12-15T14:01:42+08:00 | 110.39713397022884 |
| 2025-12-15T14:03:40+08:00 | 113.37969340146634 |
| 2025-12-15T14:07:53+08:00 | 113.98678071539658 |
| 2025-12-15T14:08:40+08:00 | 118.40802043990224 |
| 2025-12-15T14:09:28+08:00 | 118.46067540546545 |
| 2025-12-15T15:09:53+08:00 | 118.4865585425461 |
| 2025-12-15T15:11:05+08:00 | 118.40579871139747 |
| 2025-12-15T15:12:05+08:00 | 119.09564541213064 |
| 2025-12-15T15:12:55+08:00 | 123.09475672072872 |
| 2025-12-15T15:32:51+08:00 | 125.20539880026661 |
| 2025-12-15T16:07:58+08:00 | 125.21872917129527 |
| 2025-12-15T16:08:44+08:00 | 125.1965118862475 |
| 2025-12-15T16:09:38+08:00 | 125.45412130637636 |
| 2025-12-15T16:10:28+08:00 | 127.1204176849589 |
| 2025-12-15T17:11:21+08:00 | 127.24783381470785 |
| 2025-12-15T17:12:30+08:00 | 129.19062430570983 |
| 2025-12-15T17:13:06+08:00 | 129.45467673850254 |
| 2025-12-15T17:14:41+08:00 | 139.00810930904242 |
| 2025-12-15T17:19:58+08:00 | 153.67151744056875 |
| 2025-12-15T18:05:46+08:00 | 154.81570762052877 |
| 2025-12-15T18:06:06+08:00 | 154.93368140413241 |
| 2025-12-15T18:07:49+08:00 | 155.3792490557654 |
| 2025-12-15T18:08:37+08:00 | 156.62108420351032 |
| 2025-12-15T18:09:41+08:00 | 166.385580982004 |
| 2025-12-15T18:12:05+08:00 | 167.92723839146856 |
| 2025-12-15T20:10:06+08:00 | 167.94456787380582 |
| 2025-12-15T20:14:22+08:00 | 169.26794045767608 |
| 2025-12-15T20:14:50+08:00 | 169.65463230393246 |
| 2025-12-15T20:15:51+08:00 | 170.84958898022663 |
| 2025-12-15T20:16:53+08:00 | 174.54876694067985 |
| 2025-12-15T20:17:30+08:00 | 179.23661408575873 |
| 2025-12-15T22:13:28+08:00 | 179.82359475672072 |
| 2025-12-15T22:13:51+08:00 | 179.71473005998666 |
| 2025-12-15T22:15:02+08:00 | 184.0492112863808 |
| 2025-12-15T22:15:56+08:00 | 190.51444123528105 |
| 2025-12-15T22:16:30+08:00 | 197.45734281270828 |
| 2025-12-16T08:55:21+08:00 | 198.16974005776495 |
| 2025-12-16T08:56:32+08:00 | 198.16974005776495 |
| 2025-12-16T08:57:40+08:00 | 207.81737391690734 |
| 2025-12-16T08:58:35+08:00 | 236.91090868695846 |
| 2025-12-16T09:00:20+08:00 | 237.91035325483227 |
| 2025-12-16T09:03:13+08:00 | 237.9299044656743 |
| 2025-12-16T09:03:45+08:00 | 239.45301044212397 |
| 2025-12-16T09:05:43+08:00 | 246.11819595645412 |
| 2025-12-16T09:54:32+08:00 | 248.5620973117085 |
| 2025-12-16T10:04:54+08:00 | 249.56765163297044 |
| 2025-12-16T10:06:09+08:00 | 249.60964230171072 |
| 2025-12-16T10:06:54+08:00 | 252.47756054210174 |
| 2025-12-16T10:07:18+08:00 | 262.4531215285492 |
| 2025-12-16T11:07:32+08:00 | 262.67240613197066 |
| 2025-12-16T11:08:15+08:00 | 263.29304598978007 |
| 2025-12-16T11:10:05+08:00 | 263.57531659631195 |
| 2025-12-16T11:10:54+08:00 | 267.2967118418129 |
| 2025-12-16T12:05:48+08:00 | 267.4431237502777 |
| 2025-12-16T12:06:32+08:00 | 267.64185736503 |
| 2025-12-16T12:07:42+08:00 | 268.0628749166852 |
| 2025-12-16T12:08:23+08:00 | 272.7062874916685 |
| 2025-12-16T13:45:17+08:00 | 272.82448344812263 |
| 2025-12-16T13:45:54+08:00 | 273.37991557431684 |
| 2025-12-16T13:46:28+08:00 | 273.4952232837147 |
| 2025-12-16T13:47:18+08:00 | 273.9754499000222 |
| 2025-12-16T13:47:53+08:00 | 278.2967118418129 |
| 2025-12-16T14:00:58+08:00 | 278.5047767162853 |
| 2025-12-16T14:02:22+08:00 | 286.3966896245279 |
| 2025-12-16T14:08:21+08:00 | 288.0068873583648 |
| 2025-12-16T14:08:49+08:00 | 293.11686291935126 |
| 2025-12-16T14:09:29+08:00 | 293.25727616085317 |
| 2025-12-16T15:09:03+08:00 | 293.2998222617196 |
| 2025-12-16T15:09:36+08:00 | 293.3836925127749 |
| 2025-12-16T15:10:24+08:00 | 294.6586314152411 |
| 2025-12-16T15:10:56+08:00 | 299.49089091313044 |
| 2025-12-16T15:47:59+08:00 | 301.71261941790715 |
| 2025-12-16T16:04:07+08:00 | 302.1015329926683 |
| 2025-12-16T16:07:15+08:00 | 307.0115529882248 |
| 2025-12-16T17:03:49+08:00 | 307.21239724505665 |
| 2025-12-16T17:04:27+08:00 | 308.9885580982004 |
| 2025-12-16T17:05:30+08:00 | 319.48622528327036 |
| 2025-12-16T17:23:38+08:00 | 361.699066874028 |
| 2025-12-16T18:12:08+08:00 | 361.70128860253277 |
| 2025-12-16T18:12:38+08:00 | 362.8407020662075 |
| 2025-12-16T18:13:04+08:00 | 371.07220617640525 |
| 2025-12-16T18:14:47+08:00 | 373.544656742946 |
| 2025-12-16T19:10:56+08:00 | 373.54643412574984 |
| 2025-12-16T19:11:22+08:00 | 374.447900466563 |
| 2025-12-16T19:11:47+08:00 | 383.0237724950011 |
| 2025-12-16T20:22:01+08:00 | 383.03410353254833 |
| 2025-12-16T20:22:25+08:00 | 385.440013330371 |
| 2025-12-16T20:22:48+08:00 | 389.7057320595423 |
| 2025-12-16T21:31:05+08:00 | 389.75261053099314 |
| 2025-12-16T21:31:34+08:00 | 389.94701177516106 |
| 2025-12-16T21:31:58+08:00 | 398.6228615863142 |
| 2025-12-16T22:17:07+08:00 | 398.62952677182847 |
| 2025-12-16T22:17:26+08:00 | 400.5923128193735 |
| 2025-12-16T22:17:45+08:00 | 413.4116862919351 |
| 2025-12-17T08:38:46+08:00 | 497.4818929126861 |
| 2025-12-17T08:40:02+08:00 | 497.56876249722285 |
| 2025-12-17T08:40:15+08:00 | 499.6772939346812 |
| 2025-12-17T08:40:18+08:00 | 511.2056209731171 |
| 2025-12-17T08:41:44+08:00 | 511.2056209731171 |
| 2025-12-17T09:08:19+08:00 | 513.0453232614974 |
| 2025-12-17T09:10:08+08:00 | 549.8371473005999 |
| 2025-12-17T09:16:51+08:00 | 556.9110197733837 |
| 2025-12-17T09:20:08+08:00 | 579.1283048211509 |
| 2025-12-17T09:22:04+08:00 | 581.6832926016441 |
| 2025-12-17T10:01:48+08:00 | 589.4593423683626 |
| 2025-12-17T10:02:27+08:00 | 593.0994223505887 |
| 2025-12-17T10:04:08+08:00 | 593.8636969562319 |
| 2025-12-17T10:21:54+08:00 | 595.49 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|
| 時間 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|
以實際認購倍數 791.95x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.535, 乙組 α=0.635) 為基準，對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數
| 申購手數 | 認購金額(HKD) | 實際期望中籤 | 預測期望中籤 | 偏差 |
|---|
华芢生物－Ｂ中籤預測矩陣行為申購檔位，列為不同認購倍數，數值為期望中籤手數，綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手；非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。
機制B
《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%，不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%（因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者，基石投資者除外）。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益，自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。
α 為發行人分配偏好係數，描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。
本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致：中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑，與其他網站可能使用的不同定義（如「申購人數中籤比例」）有本質區別。
期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數
例：某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本頁展示 华芢生物－Ｂ（02396）的中籤預測：基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導，公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數；其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準，再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準；隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權；臨近截止（進度約九成後）默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配，估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數，並結合分配手法係數 α（人均分配至比例分配）給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α，覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測，查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源：港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告；孖展數據（孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細）來自捷利交易寶（TradeGo），倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商，捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新；中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。
