孖展動態 孖展倍數2.45x 孖展資金59.5億 捷利預測倍數4.11x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 27.9億
2 辉立证券辉立 20.0億
3 华泰国际华泰 4.3億
4 老虎国际老虎 2.3億
5 盈立证券盈立 1.3億
6 信诚证券信诚 1.0億
7 复星国际复星 9410萬
8 致富证券致富 4346萬
9 长桥证券长桥 3635萬
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2026-06-30T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-30T10:27:59+08:000.00026786229405510547
2026-06-30T10:28:05+08:000.0008777641328267301
2026-06-30T11:18:15+08:000.001767891140763696
2026-06-30T11:18:21+08:000.004261070954661216
2026-06-30T11:18:27+08:000.012931567365306476
2026-06-30T11:18:34+08:000.014369781836463888
2026-06-30T11:18:41+08:000.08030511575772062
2026-06-30T12:14:25+08:000.08189580568857094
2026-06-30T12:17:18+08:000.08346176986920079
2026-06-30T12:19:08+08:000.08998112601066505
2026-06-30T12:22:05+08:000.09153884827455473
2026-06-30T12:24:37+08:000.09237952378205075
2026-06-30T12:26:48+08:000.11751736983952989
2026-06-30T14:05:12+08:000.11976741310959277
2026-06-30T14:05:15+08:000.12075232216004154
2026-06-30T14:07:24+08:000.12087595091114389
2026-06-30T14:07:26+08:000.12119326470563994
2026-06-30T14:11:10+08:000.12077292695189193
2026-06-30T14:11:12+08:000.12197624679595487
2026-06-30T14:14:42+08:000.12400375831403351
2026-06-30T14:14:45+08:000.12486503861337993
2026-06-30T14:16:24+08:000.1256768674122854
2026-06-30T14:16:26+08:000.12578401232990744
2026-06-30T14:20:05+08:000.1587516792905358
2026-06-30T14:20:08+08:000.1698782668897479
2026-06-30T14:31:18+08:000.17324508987810205
2026-06-30T15:03:40+08:000.17459676422348783
2026-06-30T15:05:29+08:000.1788248675111884
2026-06-30T15:09:07+08:000.1800158244801411
2026-06-30T15:10:18+08:000.18866983705730606
2026-06-30T15:12:00+08:000.18897478797669187
2026-06-30T15:17:16+08:000.18916847302008555
2026-06-30T15:21:38+08:000.1932894313901641
2026-06-30T16:29:04+08:000.2069462874286044
2026-06-30T16:30:58+08:000.20935704807510033
2026-06-30T16:32:57+08:000.20949716065968302
2026-06-30T16:37:43+08:000.20969908761981687
2026-06-30T16:39:39+08:000.21048619066850185
2026-06-30T16:41:41+08:000.3089770957133791
2026-06-30T17:06:53+08:000.3104812455184578
2026-06-30T17:08:34+08:000.3108809784803554
2026-06-30T17:09:39+08:000.3137038349638592
2026-06-30T17:11:17+08:000.3154634841878827
2026-06-30T17:14:51+08:000.31571486264845755
2026-06-30T17:17:50+08:000.3260172585736539
2026-06-30T17:48:14+08:000.6556939281799375
2026-06-30T18:07:21+08:000.6571032959425044
2026-06-30T18:12:25+08:000.6580840840345831
2026-06-30T18:17:09+08:000.658075842117843
2026-06-30T18:18:13+08:000.658079963076213
2026-06-30T18:21:02+08:000.6584013978290791
2026-06-30T18:24:42+08:000.6585497523304019
2026-06-30T18:25:50+08:000.6948141859870932
2026-06-30T20:08:51+08:000.6950861692395184
2026-06-30T20:12:51+08:000.6956342567027388
2026-06-30T20:15:23+08:000.6966480124617781
2026-06-30T20:17:14+08:000.698584862895715
2026-06-30T20:19:26+08:000.7282557631602805
2026-06-30T22:00:15+08:000.7282846098688711
2026-06-30T22:07:03+08:000.7296156794224065
2026-06-30T22:08:39+08:000.7312764256455482
2026-06-30T22:10:55+08:000.7349852881786189
2026-07-01T08:44:58+08:000.7352119408889731
2026-07-01T08:45:01+08:000.7453082888956656
2026-07-01T08:58:15+08:000.8058863769358202
2026-07-01T09:02:17+08:000.8058863769358202
2026-07-01T09:05:39+08:000.8102092622660326
2026-07-01T09:10:42+08:000.8117092911127411
2026-07-01T09:12:36+08:000.812067814490938
2026-07-01T09:18:06+08:000.8131516265422687
2026-07-01T09:25:02+08:000.8228564835038037
2026-07-01T10:18:14+08:000.8230336847137171
2026-07-01T10:20:45+08:000.8253537842760712
2026-07-01T10:22:13+08:000.8233221517996225
2026-07-01T10:24:56+08:000.8236435865524886
2026-07-01T10:26:31+08:000.8195226281824101
2026-07-01T10:28:31+08:000.8196668617253628
2026-07-01T11:07:33+08:000.8196586198086226
2026-07-01T11:09:04+08:000.8197946114348353
2026-07-01T11:10:33+08:000.8198193371850557
2026-07-01T11:13:31+08:000.8210061731956384
2026-07-01T11:16:15+08:000.8210679875711896
2026-07-01T11:20:13+08:000.8276615209633152
2026-07-01T12:11:08+08:000.8288730827241183
2026-07-01T12:13:49+08:000.828910171349449
2026-07-01T12:16:19+08:000.8292563318525357
2026-07-01T12:18:06+08:000.8293469929366774
2026-07-01T12:19:58+08:000.8292316061023152
2026-07-01T12:21:05+08:000.8378856186794801
2026-07-01T14:11:39+08:000.8377166593863069
2026-07-01T14:11:41+08:000.8378485300541494
2026-07-01T14:13:54+08:000.8378732558043699
2026-07-01T14:13:57+08:000.838087545639614
2026-07-01T14:15:33+08:000.8381946905572359
2026-07-01T14:15:36+08:000.8404941853277398
2026-07-01T14:19:31+08:000.8392578978167162
2026-07-01T14:19:34+08:000.8462635270458497
2026-07-01T14:23:03+08:000.8465272683815348
2026-07-01T14:25:56+08:000.846539631256645
2026-07-01T14:25:59+08:000.8466302923407868
2026-07-01T14:31:51+08:000.8504957512919205
2026-07-01T15:09:43+08:000.850524598000511
2026-07-01T15:11:22+08:000.8508583956284873
2026-07-01T15:13:00+08:000.8509696615044795
2026-07-01T15:15:24+08:000.850734766877385
2026-07-01T15:17:45+08:000.8507842183778259
2026-07-01T15:20:19+08:000.8466632600077474
2026-07-01T16:14:59+08:000.8467250743832986
2026-07-01T16:16:48+08:000.8467003486330781
2026-07-01T16:18:06+08:000.8467498001335191
2026-07-01T16:20:44+08:000.8467786468421096
2026-07-01T16:22:06+08:000.8397730176129761
2026-07-01T16:23:48+08:000.8398348319885273
2026-07-01T17:03:54+08:000.8400450008654012
2026-07-01T17:06:30+08:000.8408609506226769
2026-07-01T17:09:26+08:000.840976337457039
2026-07-01T17:12:15+08:000.8413678285021965
2026-07-01T18:02:29+08:000.8415079410867792
2026-07-01T18:05:17+08:000.8415244249202595
2026-07-01T18:08:31+08:000.84155327162885
2026-07-01T18:10:02+08:000.8411411757918421
2026-07-01T18:11:20+08:000.8413183770017555
2026-07-01T18:20:30+08:000.8429420345995665
2026-07-01T20:55:24+08:000.8423486165942752
2026-07-01T20:58:25+08:000.8428225268068342
2026-07-01T20:59:58+08:000.8428719783072751
2026-07-01T21:01:06+08:000.8453445533293222
2026-07-01T21:02:05+08:000.854822757580503
2026-07-01T21:03:51+08:000.8553832079188336
2026-07-01T22:06:29+08:000.8560837708417469
2026-07-01T22:10:15+08:000.854929902498125
2026-07-01T22:14:58+08:000.8697653526304078
2026-07-02T08:44:51+08:000.8699095861733604
2026-07-02T08:44:54+08:000.8670413991477858
2026-07-02T08:52:16+08:000.8674534949847936
2026-07-02T08:59:15+08:000.8674534949847936
2026-07-02T09:13:05+08:000.8680427920317149
2026-07-02T09:19:04+08:000.8691224831246754
2026-07-02T09:26:59+08:000.8687351130378881
2026-07-02T09:29:46+08:000.8687186292044078
2026-07-02T09:33:11+08:000.8843782710107062
2026-07-02T09:52:26+08:000.8862285813188715
2026-07-02T10:13:00+08:000.8863110004862731
2026-07-02T10:14:27+08:000.8860060495668872
2026-07-02T10:17:03+08:000.8859524771080762
2026-07-02T10:19:19+08:000.8836694661710527
2026-07-02T10:21:23+08:000.8832985799177456
2026-07-02T10:25:40+08:000.8758808548516043
2026-07-02T11:10:03+08:000.8765113614822263
2026-07-02T11:12:12+08:000.8762764668551318
2026-07-02T11:14:04+08:000.8763671279392735
2026-07-02T11:15:15+08:000.8714219778951793
2026-07-02T11:17:05+08:000.8635550683666994
2026-07-02T11:18:59+08:000.863641608492471
2026-07-02T12:11:40+08:000.8637569953268333
2026-07-02T12:15:33+08:000.8635221006997388
2026-07-02T12:16:55+08:000.863748753410093
2026-07-02T12:20:17+08:000.8639754061204473
2026-07-02T12:21:49+08:000.8660358853054867
2026-07-02T12:24:21+08:000.8663078685579119
2026-07-02T14:08:21+08:000.8663531990999827
2026-07-02T14:08:24+08:000.8662501751407308
2026-07-02T14:11:50+08:000.8644905259167072
2026-07-02T14:14:48+08:000.8642803570398332
2026-07-02T14:14:51+08:000.8653518062160536
2026-07-02T14:19:08+08:000.8749989697604075
2026-07-02T14:19:11+08:000.8750855098861792
2026-07-02T14:24:52+08:000.8752627110960925
2026-07-02T14:24:54+08:000.8744385194220768
2026-07-02T14:24:57+08:000.874290164920754
2026-07-02T14:24:59+08:000.8705813023876833
2026-07-02T14:37:26+08:000.8691224831246754
2026-07-02T15:01:14+08:000.8691925394169668
2026-07-02T15:05:29+08:000.869040063957274
2026-07-02T15:06:40+08:000.8693408939182896
2026-07-02T15:11:58+08:000.8684507669103527
2026-07-02T15:13:22+08:000.7955098037599624
2026-07-02T16:05:21+08:000.798423321327608
2026-07-02T16:06:07+08:000.7986252482877418
2026-07-02T16:07:34+08:000.8020827323602377
2026-07-02T16:10:35+08:000.8014316209377653
2026-07-02T16:11:55+08:000.8001953334267418
2026-07-02T16:14:35+08:000.8001870915100016
2026-07-02T17:04:33+08:000.808136420205883
2026-07-02T17:06:04+08:000.8082188393732846
2026-07-02T17:07:23+08:000.8080581219968516
2026-07-02T17:08:46+08:000.8070155195292217
2026-07-02T17:11:29+08:000.8073245914069777
2026-07-02T17:14:29+08:000.8130939331250876
2026-07-02T17:52:06+08:001.307608937534513
2026-07-02T18:12:12+08:001.3096735376779223
2026-07-02T18:16:24+08:001.30955815084356
2026-07-02T18:17:34+08:001.3095787556354106
2026-07-02T18:23:00+08:001.309702384386513
2026-07-02T18:24:16+08:001.3158838219416307
2026-07-02T20:41:51+08:001.3158920638583709
2026-07-02T20:44:46+08:001.315784918940749
2026-07-02T20:45:51+08:001.315896184816741
2026-07-02T20:46:37+08:001.3159209105669614
2026-07-02T20:49:49+08:001.316633836364985
2026-07-02T20:52:03+08:001.3141612613429379
2026-07-02T21:49:42+08:001.314120051759237
2026-07-02T22:06:52+08:001.313534875670686
2026-07-02T22:10:00+08:001.3131475055838986
2026-07-02T22:12:11+08:001.32056523065004
2026-07-03T08:40:39+08:001.3196957084339533
2026-07-03T08:40:42+08:001.3227905481698823
2026-07-03T08:46:25+08:001.3227905481698823
2026-07-03T08:48:29+08:001.3429832441832672
2026-07-03T09:02:20+08:001.3420931171753303
2026-07-03T09:07:03+08:001.3441329915685192
2026-07-03T09:10:00+08:001.3445904179475978
2026-07-03T09:12:50+08:001.3460080276269049
2026-07-03T09:14:37+08:001.348480602648952
2026-07-03T09:20:06+08:001.3508254279615268
2026-07-03T10:16:32+08:001.3522224328489834
2026-07-03T10:17:57+08:001.3527911251040543
2026-07-03T10:19:01+08:001.353512292818818
2026-07-03T10:20:31+08:001.3596937303739358
2026-07-03T10:27:03+08:001.3596772465404554
2026-07-03T10:30:08+08:001.359697851332306
2026-07-03T11:12:47+08:001.3605632525900224
2026-07-03T11:14:05+08:001.3615193149318805
2026-07-03T11:14:57+08:001.3620179508946602
2026-07-03T11:16:21+08:001.3772654968639506
2026-07-03T11:18:24+08:001.3774797866991948
2026-07-03T11:19:24+08:001.3787902514608796
2026-07-03T12:27:48+08:001.381225737857596
2026-07-03T12:28:33+08:001.3818315187379977
2026-07-03T12:30:21+08:001.3817614624457064
2026-07-03T12:31:02+08:001.402366254296099
2026-07-03T12:32:54+08:001.4033470423881778
2026-07-03T12:35:02+08:001.403722049599855
2026-07-03T13:39:43+08:001.4037426543917053
2026-07-03T13:40:29+08:001.403886887934658
2026-07-03T13:41:58+08:001.4039445813518392
2026-07-03T13:43:37+08:001.4064171563738863
2026-07-03T13:44:39+08:001.406771558793713
2026-07-03T13:45:55+08:001.4068251312525242
2026-07-03T14:01:01+08:001.407286678589973
2026-07-03T14:04:12+08:001.4132126167261458
2026-07-03T14:06:26+08:001.4134516323116104
2026-07-03T14:07:34+08:001.4146590731140434
2026-07-03T14:09:08+08:001.4148321533655868
2026-07-03T14:10:50+08:001.425546645127791
2026-07-03T14:13:14+08:001.4253776858346177
2026-07-03T15:19:08+08:001.4254147744599484
2026-07-03T15:19:54+08:001.4342253834551764
2026-07-03T15:21:15+08:001.434320165497688
2026-07-03T15:22:11+08:001.446270944770916
2026-07-03T15:24:51+08:001.4481707065795222
2026-07-03T15:25:43+08:001.449955081553766
2026-07-03T16:04:34+08:001.4515457714846165
2026-07-03T16:05:58+08:001.4523369954916716
2026-07-03T16:06:43+08:001.5125029876948184
2026-07-03T16:07:37+08:001.5140895566672985
2026-07-03T16:09:18+08:001.5139164764157553
2026-07-03T17:09:02+08:001.5157956334325111
2026-07-03T17:10:46+08:001.5186061270409046
2026-07-03T17:12:51+08:001.5213465643570068
2026-07-03T17:13:44+08:001.5222119656147233
2026-07-03T17:15:33+08:001.525920828147794
2026-07-03T17:19:10+08:001.563009453478501
2026-07-03T18:34:17+08:001.564579538617501
2026-07-03T18:37:36+08:001.5648638847450362
2026-07-03T18:39:35+08:001.5651358679974614
2026-07-03T18:40:29+08:001.565523238084249
2026-07-03T18:43:15+08:001.5984909050448772
2026-07-03T18:50:40+08:001.6030074754184833
2026-07-03T21:05:18+08:001.6044704156398613
2026-07-03T21:07:00+08:001.6055418648160815
2026-07-03T21:09:08+08:001.605937476819609
2026-07-03T21:12:33+08:001.6077795452110344
2026-07-03T21:14:36+08:001.6123125994181207
2026-07-03T21:15:23+08:001.6164335577881992
2026-07-04T09:35:15+08:001.6164335577881992
2026-07-04T09:36:44+08:001.6173484105463567
2026-07-04T09:37:34+08:001.6247208050704272
2026-07-04T09:40:01+08:001.62486091765501
2026-07-04T09:41:29+08:001.6281700472261829
2026-07-04T09:42:56+08:001.653307893283662
2026-07-04T09:43:39+08:001.6566046599797248
2026-07-04T10:26:56+08:001.6566788372303862
2026-07-04T10:27:56+08:001.6568395546068193
2026-07-04T10:29:49+08:001.6568931270656304
2026-07-04T10:30:46+08:001.656930215690961
2026-07-04T10:32:05+08:001.6573423115279688
2026-07-04T12:03:04+08:001.6574082468618903
2026-07-04T12:10:28+08:001.6577338025731263
2026-07-04T12:12:01+08:001.6578945199495594
2026-07-04T12:14:02+08:001.664900149178693
2026-07-04T12:14:23+08:001.6714936825708187
2026-07-04T15:36:34+08:001.6728989293750154
2026-07-04T15:38:22+08:001.6732533317948421
2026-07-04T15:39:26+08:001.6735459198391178
2026-07-04T15:40:26+08:001.6735706455893382
2026-07-04T15:42:20+08:001.6904665749066603
2026-07-04T15:42:46+08:001.6933512457657154
2026-07-04T18:35:21+08:001.6953045800331326
2026-07-04T18:37:35+08:001.697002414881605
2026-07-04T18:38:52+08:001.6902522850714161
2026-07-04T18:40:04+08:001.6903140994469674
2026-07-04T18:41:14+08:001.6919624827949988
2026-07-04T18:41:39+08:001.6923745786320066
2026-07-04T20:03:57+08:001.6924116672573373
2026-07-04T20:05:58+08:001.6924281510908177
2026-07-04T20:07:07+08:001.692498207383109
2026-07-04T20:07:49+08:001.692502328341479
2026-07-04T20:09:01+08:001.6962111908745499
2026-07-04T21:34:38+08:001.6962317956664001
2026-07-04T21:35:40+08:001.6965202627523057
2026-07-04T21:36:43+08:001.6998170294483685
2026-07-05T09:33:05+08:001.6998252713651087
2026-07-05T09:33:09+08:001.7052731783303525
2026-07-05T09:33:14+08:001.7054709843321163
2026-07-05T09:33:18+08:001.7062127568387304
2026-07-05T09:42:03+08:001.7065465544667067
2026-07-05T09:44:38+08:001.7070204646792657
2026-07-05T09:47:27+08:001.7074325605162737
2026-07-05T09:47:59+08:001.712377710560368
2026-07-05T09:48:29+08:001.7115535188863522
2026-07-05T09:53:44+08:001.7117925344718168
2026-07-05T09:54:19+08:001.7121510578500136
2026-07-05T12:19:43+08:001.7236897412862335
2026-07-05T12:20:36+08:001.72822279549332
2026-07-05T12:21:08+08:001.7273986038193043
2026-07-05T12:23:08+08:001.7277736110309814
2026-07-05T12:23:49+08:001.7277859739060917
2026-07-05T12:24:27+08:001.7286596170805482
2026-07-05T12:28:04+08:001.7288945117076426
2026-07-05T12:28:30+08:001.728956326083194
2026-07-05T12:29:03+08:001.7291458901682175
2026-07-05T12:31:19+08:001.7279755379911153
2026-07-05T12:31:54+08:001.7282516422019105
2026-07-05T12:32:23+08:001.7298752997997213
2026-07-05T12:39:08+08:001.7303698148041309
2026-07-05T12:40:03+08:001.730530532180564
2026-07-05T12:41:24+08:001.7307159753072174
2026-07-05T14:44:46+08:001.729644526130997
2026-07-05T14:45:15+08:001.7299206303417922
2026-07-05T14:47:17+08:001.7301349201770364
2026-07-05T14:47:47+08:001.7302915165950994
2026-07-05T14:49:26+08:001.730378056720871
2026-07-05T14:49:47+08:001.7304439920547923
2026-07-05T14:51:59+08:001.7390980046319573
2026-07-05T14:52:36+08:001.7502245922311692
2026-07-05T14:54:09+08:001.7499855766457046
2026-07-05T14:54:37+08:001.7522150151239173
2026-07-05T17:19:43+08:001.7527713445038777
2026-07-05T17:20:17+08:001.7577947927570037
2026-07-05T17:20:53+08:001.7578566071325548
2026-07-05T17:23:29+08:001.7579143005497357
2026-07-05T17:24:03+08:001.7585612910138382
2026-07-05T17:24:42+08:001.7587014035984208
2026-07-05T17:26:40+08:001.758289307761413
2026-07-05T17:27:17+08:001.7615860744574758
2026-07-05T17:27:52+08:001.8250488333566854
2026-07-05T17:30:20+08:001.8248798740635122
2026-07-05T17:31:00+08:001.8252672441502995
2026-07-05T17:31:31+08:001.8256793399873075
2026-07-05T17:48:23+08:001.8257205495710083
2026-07-05T17:49:00+08:001.8257947268216697
2026-07-05T17:49:39+08:001.8284074144282993
2026-07-05T20:06:32+08:001.8283497210111184
2026-07-05T20:07:05+08:001.827851085048339
2026-07-05T20:07:40+08:001.8306162481146615
2026-07-05T20:13:32+08:001.830900594242197
2026-07-05T20:14:03+08:001.8307275139906536
2026-07-05T20:14:39+08:001.8306615786567324
2026-07-05T20:16:45+08:001.8307522397408742
2026-07-05T20:17:22+08:001.8308923523254568
2026-07-05T20:18:09+08:001.83106131161863
2026-07-05T20:20:44+08:001.8310159810765592
2026-07-05T20:21:18+08:001.8311272469525512
2026-07-05T21:10:47+08:001.9147827018651458
2026-07-05T21:11:29+08:001.9378600687375855
2026-07-05T21:12:15+08:001.9403326437596327
2026-07-05T21:12:55+08:001.967943064839159
2026-07-05T21:15:08+08:001.9678606456717573
2026-07-05T21:16:21+08:001.9680790564653716
2026-07-05T21:22:00+08:001.967370251625718
2026-07-06T08:39:07+08:001.9678565247133875
2026-07-06T08:39:48+08:001.9708318566565841
2026-07-06T08:40:14+08:001.973827793391631
2026-07-06T08:44:21+08:001.9752371611541981
2026-07-06T08:46:02+08:001.969879915273096
2026-07-06T08:46:22+08:002.046529740956557
2026-07-06T08:49:51+08:002.046529740956557
2026-07-06T09:03:05+08:002.0482976320973205
2026-07-06T09:05:14+08:002.054355440901336
2026-07-06T09:06:58+08:002.0580107309755955
2026-07-06T09:07:42+08:002.077379235314965
2026-07-06T09:10:52+08:002.2181923828205488
2026-07-06T10:27:34+08:002.2187610750756197
2026-07-06T10:29:02+08:002.4091493517732485
2026-07-06T11:10:11+08:002.45
捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
+4.6%
→
參與人數
14,193
→
人均手數
36.5
→
認購倍數
1.0x
1.0x = 14,193 × 36.5 ÷ 383,473 A+H二次上市 · 參與×0.44 H股折價 9.5% 孖展加權 100% → 4.1x
1x412.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.60
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.70
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 3.78x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.597, 乙組 α=0.697) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌立讯精密中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手;非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

機制B

《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%,不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%(因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者,基石投資者除外)。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益,自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 立讯精密(02475)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α,覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測,查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析