乐摩科技 02539
新股中籤預測
9.1701.77%( -0.165 )
11月13日 · 收市數據，非即時 · 香港交易所
基於相似IPO匹配的期望中籤預測
新股中籤預測| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
754.6億 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
255.0億 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
167.2億 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
74.8億 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
28.0億 |
| 6 |  信诚 |
10.0億 |
| 7 | 卓锐证券 | 9.1億 |
| 8 |  长桥 |
7.7億 |
| 9 |  盈立 |
7.6億 |
| 11 |  TradeGo |
3.7億 |
| 12 |  艾德 |
6186萬 |
| 13 |  盈宝 |
2088萬 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-25T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-11-25T10:00:51+08:00 | 0.016201620162016202 |
| 2025-11-25T10:04:32+08:00 | 0.032403240324032405 |
| 2025-11-25T10:04:48+08:00 | 1.207020702070207 |
| 2025-11-25T10:05:50+08:00 | 2.107110711071107 |
| 2025-11-25T11:11:06+08:00 | 2.192169216921692 |
| 2025-11-25T11:11:28+08:00 | 2.423042304230423 |
| 2025-11-25T11:11:42+08:00 | 2.8730873087308733 |
| 2025-11-25T11:11:53+08:00 | 4.265976597659766 |
| 2025-11-25T11:12:02+08:00 | 9.306480648064806 |
| 2025-11-25T12:03:49+08:00 | 9.405940594059405 |
| 2025-11-25T12:03:58+08:00 | 10.135463546354636 |
| 2025-11-25T12:04:20+08:00 | 11.894689468946895 |
| 2025-11-25T12:06:58+08:00 | 18.375337533753374 |
| 2025-11-25T13:43:59+08:00 | 18.396939693969397 |
| 2025-11-25T13:44:05+08:00 | 18.855085508550854 |
| 2025-11-25T13:44:23+08:00 | 20.244824482448244 |
| 2025-11-25T13:44:33+08:00 | 22.81008100810081 |
| 2025-11-25T13:45:43+08:00 | 23.17011701170117 |
| 2025-11-25T14:09:19+08:00 | 23.371287128712872 |
| 2025-11-25T14:10:07+08:00 | 23.584158415841586 |
| 2025-11-25T14:10:17+08:00 | 24.047704770477047 |
| 2025-11-25T14:10:29+08:00 | 25.577857785778576 |
| 2025-11-25T14:11:28+08:00 | 27.083708370837083 |
| 2025-11-25T15:08:36+08:00 | 27.180918091809183 |
| 2025-11-25T15:08:43+08:00 | 27.295679567956796 |
| 2025-11-25T15:08:57+08:00 | 30.355985598559855 |
| 2025-11-25T15:09:07+08:00 | 31.50945094509451 |
| 2025-11-25T15:48:00+08:00 | 32.85958595859586 |
| 2025-11-25T16:19:13+08:00 | 32.9032403240324 |
| 2025-11-25T16:19:28+08:00 | 35.126912691269126 |
| 2025-11-25T16:19:49+08:00 | 37.78217821782178 |
| 2025-11-25T16:20:06+08:00 | 38.05265526552655 |
| 2025-11-25T17:07:18+08:00 | 39.85283528352835 |
| 2025-11-25T17:07:30+08:00 | 47.05355535553555 |
| 2025-11-25T17:07:52+08:00 | 72.16606660666066 |
| 2025-11-25T17:08:03+08:00 | 81.26192619261926 |
| 2025-11-25T17:08:21+08:00 | 81.37803780378037 |
| 2025-11-25T17:08:56+08:00 | 81.4950495049505 |
| 2025-11-25T18:00:33+08:00 | 83.74527452745275 |
| 2025-11-25T18:00:40+08:00 | 83.76732673267327 |
| 2025-11-25T18:13:59+08:00 | 86.94914491449146 |
| 2025-11-25T18:14:10+08:00 | 88.18586858685869 |
| 2025-11-25T18:14:24+08:00 | 99.66201620162016 |
| 2025-11-25T18:17:22+08:00 | 106.61701170117011 |
| 2025-11-25T20:15:41+08:00 | 106.66471647164717 |
| 2025-11-25T20:15:46+08:00 | 107.94419441944194 |
| 2025-11-25T20:15:56+08:00 | 113.67641764176417 |
| 2025-11-25T20:16:07+08:00 | 122.85733573357335 |
| 2025-11-25T20:16:32+08:00 | 124.38163816381638 |
| 2025-11-25T20:16:42+08:00 | 127.30828082808281 |
| 2025-11-25T20:16:52+08:00 | 135.5891089108911 |
| 2025-11-25T22:03:52+08:00 | 136.12916291629162 |
| 2025-11-25T22:04:03+08:00 | 138.36948694869486 |
| 2025-11-25T22:04:14+08:00 | 146.74032403240324 |
| 2025-11-25T22:04:25+08:00 | 147.05355535553556 |
| 2025-11-25T22:04:40+08:00 | 151.03150315031502 |
| 2025-11-25T22:05:32+08:00 | 155.66696669666968 |
| 2025-11-26T08:36:29+08:00 | 155.67371737173718 |
| 2025-11-26T08:36:33+08:00 | 155.67641764176417 |
| 2025-11-26T08:36:37+08:00 | 155.67911791179117 |
| 2025-11-26T08:36:46+08:00 | 155.67911791179117 |
| 2025-11-26T08:37:00+08:00 | 158.42664266426644 |
| 2025-11-26T08:37:07+08:00 | 165.22817281728172 |
| 2025-11-26T08:37:25+08:00 | 197.94644464446444 |
| 2025-11-26T09:03:30+08:00 | 198.51890189018903 |
| 2025-11-26T09:03:57+08:00 | 200.76867686768676 |
| 2025-11-26T09:04:49+08:00 | 207.0175517551755 |
| 2025-11-26T09:05:51+08:00 | 219.12376237623764 |
| 2025-11-26T10:04:18+08:00 | 223.66921692169217 |
| 2025-11-26T10:04:27+08:00 | 228.42394239423942 |
| 2025-11-26T10:04:56+08:00 | 233.3114311431143 |
| 2025-11-26T10:05:16+08:00 | 233.54095409540955 |
| 2025-11-26T10:05:31+08:00 | 252.21782178217822 |
| 2025-11-26T11:09:14+08:00 | 253.27047704770476 |
| 2025-11-26T11:09:43+08:00 | 254.08505850585058 |
| 2025-11-26T11:09:58+08:00 | 258.25202520252026 |
| 2025-11-26T11:10:10+08:00 | 269.54815481548155 |
| 2025-11-26T11:52:25+08:00 | 273.73357335733573 |
| 2025-11-26T12:05:18+08:00 | 273.9207920792079 |
| 2025-11-26T12:05:26+08:00 | 274.2884788478848 |
| 2025-11-26T12:05:29+08:00 | 278.6908190819082 |
| 2025-11-26T12:05:45+08:00 | 292.46219621962194 |
| 2025-11-26T13:52:50+08:00 | 292.94689468946893 |
| 2025-11-26T13:53:08+08:00 | 293.04545454545456 |
| 2025-11-26T13:53:25+08:00 | 295.13366336633663 |
| 2025-11-26T13:53:35+08:00 | 301.83933393339333 |
| 2025-11-26T14:04:33+08:00 | 301.95499549954997 |
| 2025-11-26T14:04:55+08:00 | 302.464896489649 |
| 2025-11-26T14:05:08+08:00 | 305.7992799279928 |
| 2025-11-26T14:05:24+08:00 | 315.92529252925294 |
| 2025-11-26T14:09:45+08:00 | 323.532403240324 |
| 2025-11-26T15:03:24+08:00 | 323.6143114311431 |
| 2025-11-26T15:03:31+08:00 | 327.0859585958596 |
| 2025-11-26T15:03:43+08:00 | 327.93834383438343 |
| 2025-11-26T15:06:36+08:00 | 338.91944194419443 |
| 2025-11-26T15:14:48+08:00 | 351.0706570657066 |
| 2025-11-26T16:06:25+08:00 | 351.42799279927993 |
| 2025-11-26T16:06:35+08:00 | 356.25652565256524 |
| 2025-11-26T16:06:46+08:00 | 369.35283528352835 |
| 2025-11-26T16:07:08+08:00 | 369.8838883888389 |
| 2025-11-26T17:22:35+08:00 | 369.93879387938796 |
| 2025-11-26T17:23:10+08:00 | 424.75832583258324 |
| 2025-11-26T17:23:25+08:00 | 425.45769576957696 |
| 2025-11-26T17:23:35+08:00 | 651.6953195319531 |
| 2025-11-26T17:30:53+08:00 | 670.1471647164716 |
| 2025-11-26T17:32:48+08:00 | 764.2065706570658 |
| 2025-11-26T18:02:40+08:00 | 766.9396939693969 |
| 2025-11-26T18:11:12+08:00 | 771.9401440144014 |
| 2025-11-26T18:11:20+08:00 | 788.8424842484249 |
| 2025-11-26T18:11:41+08:00 | 874.3510351035103 |
| 2025-11-26T18:14:11+08:00 | 897.0382538253825 |
| 2025-11-26T19:56:26+08:00 | 897.6269126912691 |
| 2025-11-26T19:56:31+08:00 | 912.9815481548155 |
| 2025-11-26T19:56:38+08:00 | 916.8933393339333 |
| 2025-11-26T19:57:03+08:00 | 982.1498649864986 |
| 2025-11-26T20:11:06+08:00 | 984.0832583258326 |
| 2025-11-26T20:11:11+08:00 | 996.0774077407741 |
| 2025-11-26T20:11:27+08:00 | 1053.863186318632 |
| 2025-11-26T22:02:47+08:00 | 1054.8955895589559 |
| 2025-11-26T22:02:51+08:00 | 1062.9500450045005 |
| 2025-11-26T22:03:01+08:00 | 1113.8051305130514 |
| 2025-11-26T22:03:20+08:00 | 1114.5738073807381 |
| 2025-11-26T22:03:25+08:00 | 1129.610711071107 |
| 2025-11-26T22:06:24+08:00 | 1184.8312331233124 |
| 2025-11-27T08:48:20+08:00 | 1186.2389738973898 |
| 2025-11-27T08:48:24+08:00 | 1186.2569756975697 |
| 2025-11-27T08:48:29+08:00 | 1186.2565256525652 |
| 2025-11-27T08:48:46+08:00 | 1207.6354635463547 |
| 2025-11-27T08:48:52+08:00 | 1249.1206120612062 |
| 2025-11-27T08:49:09+08:00 | 1249.1206120612062 |
| 2025-11-27T08:49:20+08:00 | 1492.5949594959495 |
| 2025-11-27T09:17:00+08:00 | 1522.6579657965797 |
| 2025-11-27T09:17:11+08:00 | 1523.6557155715573 |
| 2025-11-27T09:18:02+08:00 | 1531.6314131413142 |
| 2025-11-27T09:18:11+08:00 | 1531.59900990099 |
| 2025-11-27T09:18:21+08:00 | 1597.8456345634563 |
| 2025-11-27T09:19:07+08:00 | 1683.5 |
| 2025-11-27T10:04:04+08:00 | 1684.1723672367236 |
| 2025-11-27T10:05:18+08:00 | 1708.5445544554455 |
| 2025-11-27T10:05:36+08:00 | 1708.5679567956795 |
| 2025-11-27T10:05:45+08:00 | 1835.4806480648065 |
| 2025-11-27T11:10:17+08:00 | 1849.6089108910892 |
| 2025-11-27T11:10:56+08:00 | 1875.513501350135 |
| 2025-11-27T11:11:44+08:00 | 1982.8942394239423 |
| 2025-11-27T12:11:33+08:00 | 1983.3492349234923 |
| 2025-11-27T12:12:05+08:00 | 1986.981098109811 |
| 2025-11-27T12:12:40+08:00 | 2010.5094509450946 |
| 2025-11-27T12:12:59+08:00 | 2112.3996399639964 |
| 2025-11-27T13:52:46+08:00 | 2127.4536453645364 |
| 2025-11-27T13:53:41+08:00 | 2129.0373537353735 |
| 2025-11-27T13:54:04+08:00 | 2129.265526552655 |
| 2025-11-27T13:54:39+08:00 | 2195.197119711971 |
| 2025-11-27T13:55:10+08:00 | 2217.6993699369937 |
| 2025-11-27T14:16:09+08:00 | 2232.8523852385238 |
| 2025-11-27T14:16:39+08:00 | 2234.15301530153 |
| 2025-11-27T14:17:25+08:00 | 2234.273627362736 |
| 2025-11-27T14:18:34+08:00 | 2318.5220522052205 |
| 2025-11-27T14:19:21+08:00 | 2372.6372637263726 |
| 2025-11-27T15:10:27+08:00 | 2372.818181818182 |
| 2025-11-27T15:10:53+08:00 | 2374.0211521152114 |
| 2025-11-27T15:11:41+08:00 | 2389.4941494149416 |
| 2025-11-27T15:11:59+08:00 | 2492.5994599459946 |
| 2025-11-27T16:18:30+08:00 | 2493.7385238523852 |
| 2025-11-27T16:19:54+08:00 | 2518.0319531953196 |
| 2025-11-27T16:20:55+08:00 | 2619.247074707471 |
| 2025-11-27T16:22:02+08:00 | 2628.24797479748 |
| 2025-11-27T16:31:50+08:00 | 2659.751125112511 |
| 2025-11-27T17:00:19+08:00 | 2661.500900090009 |
| 2025-11-27T17:03:36+08:00 | 2692.1444644464445 |
| 2025-11-27T17:06:19+08:00 | 2824.9977497749774 |
| 2025-11-27T17:17:12+08:00 | 3331.2983798379837 |
| 2025-11-27T17:30:25+08:00 | 3340.2992799279928 |
| 2025-11-27T18:01:57+08:00 | 3340.4279927992798 |
| 2025-11-27T18:02:09+08:00 | 3381.279477947795 |
| 2025-11-27T18:02:14+08:00 | 3417.2830783078307 |
| 2025-11-27T18:05:11+08:00 | 3436.839783978398 |
| 2025-11-27T18:05:29+08:00 | 3542.5553555355536 |
| 2025-11-27T18:16:13+08:00 | 3585.684518451845 |
| 2025-11-27T20:16:25+08:00 | 3585.785778577858 |
| 2025-11-27T20:17:04+08:00 | 3601.464896489649 |
| 2025-11-27T20:17:14+08:00 | 3686.8384338433843 |
| 2025-11-27T20:18:35+08:00 | 3708.0985598559855 |
| 2025-11-27T20:18:46+08:00 | 3784.9212421242123 |
| 2025-11-27T21:26:58+08:00 | 3808.571107110711 |
| 2025-11-27T21:27:08+08:00 | 3893.179567956796 |
| 2025-11-27T22:04:05+08:00 | 3919.9410441044106 |
| 2025-11-27T22:10:11+08:00 | 4061.9752475247524 |
| 2025-11-28T08:36:04+08:00 | 4086.8177317731775 |
| 2025-11-28T08:36:07+08:00 | 4206.694419441944 |
| 2025-11-28T08:37:21+08:00 | 4938.017551755175 |
| 2025-11-28T08:39:45+08:00 | 4938.017551755175 |
| 2025-11-28T09:21:57+08:00 | 4940.450045004501 |
| 2025-11-28T09:23:07+08:00 | 5435.499549954996 |
| 2025-11-28T09:23:21+08:00 | 5712.772277227723 |
| 2025-11-28T09:24:01+08:00 | 5752.3406840684065 |
| 2025-11-28T09:28:37+08:00 | 5784.743924392439 |
| 2025-11-28T09:43:33+08:00 | 5893.267776777678 |
| 2025-11-28T10:07:19+08:00 | 5913.388838883889 |
| 2025-11-28T17:11:36+08:00 | 5932.83 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|
| 時間 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|
以實際認購倍數 7324.29x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.555, 乙組 α=0.655) 為基準，對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數
| 申購手數 | 認購金額(HKD) | 實際期望中籤 | 預測期望中籤 | 偏差 |
|---|
乐摩科技中籤預測矩陣行為申購檔位，列為不同認購倍數，數值為期望中籤手數，綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手；非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。
機制B
《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%，不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%（因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者，基石投資者除外）。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益，自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。
α 為發行人分配偏好係數，描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。
本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致：中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑，與其他網站可能使用的不同定義（如「申購人數中籤比例」）有本質區別。
期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數
例：某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本頁展示 乐摩科技（02539）的中籤預測：基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導，公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數；其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準，再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準；隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權；臨近截止（進度約九成後）默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配，估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數，並結合分配手法係數 α（人均分配至比例分配）給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α，覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測，查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源：港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告；孖展數據（孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細）來自捷利交易寶（TradeGo），倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商，捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新；中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。
