健康160 02656中籤預測
健康160（02656）中籤預測
| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  辉立 |
130.0億 |
| 2 |  富途 |
89.2億 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
12.7億 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
5.0億 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
4.9億 |
| 6 |  信诚 |
3.0億 |
| 7 |  耀才 |
3.0億 |
| 8 |  长桥 |
2.1億 |
| 10 |  盈立 |
9360萬 |
| 11 | 卓锐证券 | 9024萬 |
| 12 |  TradeGo |
4097萬 |
| 13 |  艾德 |
1562萬 |
| 14 |  Funderstone |
1081萬 |
| 15 |  盈宝 |
1074萬 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-09T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-09-09T10:08:15+08:00 | 0.0338 |
| 2025-09-09T10:08:33+08:00 | 0.6284 |
| 2025-09-09T10:08:50+08:00 | 1.0084 |
| 2025-09-09T10:37:32+08:00 | 1.1084 |
| 2025-09-09T11:03:26+08:00 | 1.177 |
| 2025-09-09T11:03:35+08:00 | 1.4378 |
| 2025-09-09T11:03:49+08:00 | 2.1966 |
| 2025-09-09T11:08:43+08:00 | 4.4766 |
| 2025-09-09T11:44:16+08:00 | 4.6766 |
| 2025-09-09T12:02:42+08:00 | 4.756 |
| 2025-09-09T12:04:15+08:00 | 5.1344 |
| 2025-09-09T12:04:31+08:00 | 6.026 |
| 2025-09-09T12:08:41+08:00 | 7.226 |
| 2025-09-09T13:42:57+08:00 | 7.2628 |
| 2025-09-09T13:43:04+08:00 | 7.33 |
| 2025-09-09T13:43:29+08:00 | 7.4834 |
| 2025-09-09T13:43:45+08:00 | 9.8234 |
| 2025-09-09T14:12:34+08:00 | 9.9036 |
| 2025-09-09T14:13:02+08:00 | 10.1036 |
| 2025-09-09T14:13:15+08:00 | 10.239 |
| 2025-09-09T14:13:29+08:00 | 10.8004 |
| 2025-09-09T14:13:39+08:00 | 11.6804 |
| 2025-09-09T14:14:34+08:00 | 12.4672 |
| 2025-09-09T15:01:07+08:00 | 12.4952 |
| 2025-09-09T15:16:50+08:00 | 12.8092 |
| 2025-09-09T15:17:04+08:00 | 13.016 |
| 2025-09-09T15:17:13+08:00 | 14.556 |
| 2025-09-09T16:06:54+08:00 | 14.5702 |
| 2025-09-09T16:06:59+08:00 | 14.7672 |
| 2025-09-09T16:07:27+08:00 | 14.863 |
| 2025-09-09T16:07:34+08:00 | 15.543 |
| 2025-09-09T17:04:09+08:00 | 15.5528 |
| 2025-09-09T17:04:26+08:00 | 15.7982 |
| 2025-09-09T17:04:39+08:00 | 15.7662 |
| 2025-09-09T17:06:06+08:00 | 15.7062 |
| 2025-09-09T18:14:30+08:00 | 23.7062 |
| 2025-09-09T18:14:41+08:00 | 23.7094 |
| 2025-09-09T18:14:51+08:00 | 24.1876 |
| 2025-09-09T18:15:10+08:00 | 24.4986 |
| 2025-09-09T18:15:21+08:00 | 24.9586 |
| 2025-09-09T18:15:27+08:00 | 25.1586 |
| 2025-09-09T18:16:49+08:00 | 29.1586 |
| 2025-09-09T18:17:14+08:00 | 30.1586 |
| 2025-09-09T18:18:06+08:00 | 30.9982 |
| 2025-09-09T20:49:48+08:00 | 31.011 |
| 2025-09-09T20:50:01+08:00 | 31.1566 |
| 2025-09-09T20:50:26+08:00 | 31.2132 |
| 2025-09-09T20:50:44+08:00 | 31.9532 |
| 2025-09-09T20:50:52+08:00 | 31.9742 |
| 2025-09-09T20:51:14+08:00 | 31.9534 |
| 2025-09-09T20:51:31+08:00 | 35.2734 |
| 2025-09-09T22:22:27+08:00 | 35.6178 |
| 2025-09-09T22:22:38+08:00 | 35.803 |
| 2025-09-09T22:22:56+08:00 | 36.323 |
| 2025-09-09T22:23:02+08:00 | 36.532 |
| 2025-09-09T22:23:19+08:00 | 36.6078 |
| 2025-09-09T22:23:33+08:00 | 37.0678 |
| 2025-09-10T08:34:48+08:00 | 37.0986 |
| 2025-09-10T08:34:52+08:00 | 37.1102 |
| 2025-09-10T08:34:57+08:00 | 37.168 |
| 2025-09-10T08:36:01+08:00 | 37.748 |
| 2025-09-10T08:36:04+08:00 | 40.128 |
| 2025-09-10T08:36:07+08:00 | 42.208 |
| 2025-09-10T08:36:15+08:00 | 42.208 |
| 2025-09-10T08:37:12+08:00 | 42.7154 |
| 2025-09-10T08:37:19+08:00 | 43.5276 |
| 2025-09-10T09:04:27+08:00 | 43.6194 |
| 2025-09-10T09:04:51+08:00 | 43.6014 |
| 2025-09-10T09:05:08+08:00 | 43.6088 |
| 2025-09-10T09:05:16+08:00 | 44.0088 |
| 2025-09-10T09:07:31+08:00 | 44.526 |
| 2025-09-10T10:21:32+08:00 | 46.126 |
| 2025-09-10T10:22:09+08:00 | 49.266 |
| 2025-09-10T10:22:25+08:00 | 49.1404 |
| 2025-09-10T10:22:31+08:00 | 49.2806 |
| 2025-09-10T10:22:58+08:00 | 49.8778 |
| 2025-09-10T11:07:04+08:00 | 49.9758 |
| 2025-09-10T11:07:24+08:00 | 50.153 |
| 2025-09-10T11:07:35+08:00 | 50.2718 |
| 2025-09-10T11:07:43+08:00 | 51.8118 |
| 2025-09-10T12:00:39+08:00 | 52.6118 |
| 2025-09-10T12:00:57+08:00 | 52.6606 |
| 2025-09-10T12:04:22+08:00 | 52.6976 |
| 2025-09-10T12:04:36+08:00 | 52.7952 |
| 2025-09-10T12:08:22+08:00 | 55.5152 |
| 2025-09-10T13:40:38+08:00 | 55.6402 |
| 2025-09-10T13:40:43+08:00 | 55.3444 |
| 2025-09-10T13:41:00+08:00 | 55.4062 |
| 2025-09-10T13:41:12+08:00 | 55.5862 |
| 2025-09-10T14:16:46+08:00 | 55.6094 |
| 2025-09-10T14:16:52+08:00 | 55.7398 |
| 2025-09-10T14:17:02+08:00 | 56.0376 |
| 2025-09-10T14:17:05+08:00 | 58.2376 |
| 2025-09-10T14:19:24+08:00 | 58.8596 |
| 2025-09-10T15:03:14+08:00 | 58.874 |
| 2025-09-10T15:03:28+08:00 | 59.0744 |
| 2025-09-10T15:03:44+08:00 | 59.2038 |
| 2025-09-10T15:05:53+08:00 | 61.9438 |
| 2025-09-10T16:12:18+08:00 | 61.9554 |
| 2025-09-10T16:12:27+08:00 | 62.2708 |
| 2025-09-10T16:12:38+08:00 | 62.3386 |
| 2025-09-10T16:12:46+08:00 | 64.3786 |
| 2025-09-10T17:15:21+08:00 | 64.3858 |
| 2025-09-10T17:15:42+08:00 | 64.7458 |
| 2025-09-10T17:15:55+08:00 | 76.3458 |
| 2025-09-10T17:16:10+08:00 | 77.536 |
| 2025-09-10T17:16:18+08:00 | 77.2598 |
| 2025-09-10T17:35:54+08:00 | 77.6598 |
| 2025-09-10T18:01:47+08:00 | 77.6602 |
| 2025-09-10T18:08:13+08:00 | 78.0584 |
| 2025-09-10T18:08:36+08:00 | 78.1152 |
| 2025-09-10T18:09:04+08:00 | 78.5552 |
| 2025-09-10T18:11:10+08:00 | 78.9568 |
| 2025-09-10T18:15:02+08:00 | 79.9568 |
| 2025-09-10T18:15:32+08:00 | 80.9568 |
| 2025-09-10T20:13:49+08:00 | 81.5568 |
| 2025-09-10T20:14:16+08:00 | 81.5736 |
| 2025-09-10T20:14:22+08:00 | 82.4248 |
| 2025-09-10T20:14:28+08:00 | 82.3166 |
| 2025-09-10T20:14:46+08:00 | 82.6766 |
| 2025-09-10T20:14:51+08:00 | 82.9892 |
| 2025-09-10T20:15:02+08:00 | 82.9712 |
| 2025-09-10T20:15:13+08:00 | 82.7112 |
| 2025-09-10T22:00:57+08:00 | 83.4888 |
| 2025-09-10T22:01:09+08:00 | 83.3626 |
| 2025-09-10T22:02:14+08:00 | 84.0626 |
| 2025-09-10T22:07:41+08:00 | 84.5462 |
| 2025-09-10T22:07:52+08:00 | 84.8876 |
| 2025-09-10T22:08:04+08:00 | 86.1676 |
| 2025-09-11T08:39:29+08:00 | 86.2944 |
| 2025-09-11T08:39:32+08:00 | 86.2986 |
| 2025-09-11T08:39:53+08:00 | 88.9386 |
| 2025-09-11T08:39:56+08:00 | 93.3186 |
| 2025-09-11T08:40:00+08:00 | 95.0786 |
| 2025-09-11T08:40:32+08:00 | 95.0786 |
| 2025-09-11T08:40:49+08:00 | 95.2992 |
| 2025-09-11T08:40:52+08:00 | 95.793 |
| 2025-09-11T09:15:48+08:00 | 95.8548 |
| 2025-09-11T09:16:21+08:00 | 95.7998 |
| 2025-09-11T09:16:36+08:00 | 98.5998 |
| 2025-09-11T09:17:28+08:00 | 99.9588 |
| 2025-09-11T10:00:31+08:00 | 99.9998 |
| 2025-09-11T10:03:49+08:00 | 100.4608 |
| 2025-09-11T10:04:06+08:00 | 100.1284 |
| 2025-09-11T10:06:57+08:00 | 103.7284 |
| 2025-09-11T11:01:51+08:00 | 104.1744 |
| 2025-09-11T11:04:26+08:00 | 105.6564 |
| 2025-09-11T11:04:56+08:00 | 105.7986 |
| 2025-09-11T11:08:31+08:00 | 109.5986 |
| 2025-09-11T11:43:03+08:00 | 111.5986 |
| 2025-09-11T12:02:26+08:00 | 111.6278 |
| 2025-09-11T12:04:03+08:00 | 112.3578 |
| 2025-09-11T12:04:12+08:00 | 112.4248 |
| 2025-09-11T12:05:58+08:00 | 116.3448 |
| 2025-09-11T13:41:05+08:00 | 116.2376 |
| 2025-09-11T13:41:34+08:00 | 116.195 |
| 2025-09-11T13:41:40+08:00 | 117.267 |
| 2025-09-11T13:41:56+08:00 | 118.667 |
| 2025-09-11T13:42:06+08:00 | 119.467 |
| 2025-09-11T14:03:19+08:00 | 119.9004 |
| 2025-09-11T14:03:32+08:00 | 119.9352 |
| 2025-09-11T14:07:47+08:00 | 125.2352 |
| 2025-09-11T14:09:16+08:00 | 126.3024 |
| 2025-09-11T15:10:53+08:00 | 129.9624 |
| 2025-09-11T15:11:06+08:00 | 130.2594 |
| 2025-09-11T15:11:13+08:00 | 130.532 |
| 2025-09-11T16:41:08+08:00 | 134.872 |
| 2025-09-11T16:41:43+08:00 | 135.797 |
| 2025-09-11T17:06:44+08:00 | 135.9946 |
| 2025-09-11T17:07:08+08:00 | 144.2746 |
| 2025-09-11T18:05:20+08:00 | 172.2746 |
| 2025-09-11T18:05:29+08:00 | 175.5146 |
| 2025-09-11T18:05:57+08:00 | 177.0448 |
| 2025-09-11T18:15:09+08:00 | 180.7168 |
| 2025-09-11T18:16:52+08:00 | 181.7168 |
| 2025-09-11T18:17:35+08:00 | 185.7168 |
| 2025-09-11T21:32:04+08:00 | 187.3768 |
| 2025-09-11T21:32:09+08:00 | 188.9768 |
| 2025-09-11T21:32:27+08:00 | 189.2574 |
| 2025-09-11T21:32:42+08:00 | 192.9974 |
| 2025-09-11T21:32:52+08:00 | 193.3874 |
| 2025-09-11T21:33:08+08:00 | 194.5474 |
| 2025-09-11T21:33:23+08:00 | 194.84 |
| 2025-09-11T21:33:39+08:00 | 197.54 |
| 2025-09-11T22:03:51+08:00 | 198.7594 |
| 2025-09-11T22:16:07+08:00 | 201.6594 |
| 2025-09-12T08:51:47+08:00 | 212.7594 |
| 2025-09-12T08:51:50+08:00 | 221.7394 |
| 2025-09-12T08:51:53+08:00 | 240.4794 |
| 2025-09-12T08:51:57+08:00 | 257.0794 |
| 2025-09-12T08:52:40+08:00 | 259.6826 |
| 2025-09-12T08:52:49+08:00 | 269.8322 |
| 2025-09-12T08:53:27+08:00 | 269.8322 |
| 2025-09-12T09:11:05+08:00 | 295.5122 |
| 2025-09-12T09:11:18+08:00 | 297.5626 |
| 2025-09-12T09:15:24+08:00 | 298.2968 |
| 2025-09-12T09:56:07+08:00 | 450.2968 |
| 2025-09-12T10:35:08+08:00 | 441.477 |
| 2025-09-12T10:35:46+08:00 | 504.84 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|
| 時間 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|
以實際認購倍數 751.77x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.477, 乙組 α=0.577) 為基準，對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數
| 申購手數 | 認購金額(HKD) | 實際期望中籤 | 預測期望中籤 | 偏差 |
|---|
健康160中籤預測矩陣行為申購檔位，列為不同認購倍數，數值為期望中籤手數，綠色背景表示穩中（≥1手）
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 為發行人分配偏好係數，描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。
本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致：中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑，與其他網站可能使用的不同定義（如「申購人數中籤比例」）有本質區別。
期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數
例：某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本頁展示 健康160（02656）的中籤預測：基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導，公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數；其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準，再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準；隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權；臨近截止（進度約九成後）默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 356 隻 IPO 的 10897 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配，估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數，並結合分配手法係數 α（人均分配至比例分配）給出區間。
數據來源：港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告；孖展數據（孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細）來自捷利交易寶（TradeGo），倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商，捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新；中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。
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