孖展動態 孖展倍數313.81567459085926x 孖展資金1516.8億
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 900.7億
2 辉立证券辉立 365.0億
3 老虎国际老虎 147.2億
4 华泰国际华泰 55.1億
5 华盛证券华盛 18.1億
6 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 13.5億
7 长桥证券长桥 7.1億
8 盈立证券盈立 5.2億
9 信诚证券信诚 5.0億
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2026-01-29T06:00:00+08:000
2026-01-29T10:30:48+08:000.0002896571700494486
2026-01-29T10:30:54+08:000.02913123538783026
2026-01-29T10:31:00+08:000.058821095317898746
2026-01-29T10:31:08+08:000.0670970144621687
2026-01-29T11:08:03+08:000.0697453085883351
2026-01-29T11:09:07+08:000.09374547410671798
2026-01-29T11:11:17+08:000.16208387644052719
2026-01-29T11:11:32+08:000.9317443568576335
2026-01-29T12:10:03+08:000.942089255787971
2026-01-29T12:10:24+08:000.9446754805205553
2026-01-29T12:10:51+08:000.9951792770984628
2026-01-29T12:11:08+08:001.1011731115387002
2026-01-29T12:11:20+08:001.543934785757143
2026-01-29T13:41:30+08:001.545217553224505
2026-01-29T13:42:38+08:001.6086938530610555
2026-01-29T13:43:04+08:001.7209360064552168
2026-01-29T13:43:20+08:002.703701404837275
2026-01-29T14:17:29+08:002.71245318933234
2026-01-29T14:18:22+08:002.719860136966462
2026-01-29T14:18:44+08:002.7990399933792647
2026-01-29T14:18:57+08:003.0514555272794985
2026-01-29T15:10:57+08:003.068607369705998
2026-01-29T15:12:02+08:003.11987668880475
2026-01-29T15:12:20+08:003.138083710922144
2026-01-29T15:12:43+08:003.3801543458920404
2026-01-29T15:14:48+08:003.4215339416133905
2026-01-29T16:25:31+08:003.4307202118635303
2026-01-29T16:27:03+08:003.5003620714625616
2026-01-29T16:27:50+08:003.6894047545155484
2026-01-29T16:28:18+08:003.6895288933027124
2026-01-29T16:28:32+08:004.380568141849254
2026-01-29T16:32:36+08:004.437403016572528
2026-01-29T17:16:52+08:004.437589224753274
2026-01-29T17:17:08+08:004.458279022613949
2026-01-29T17:17:31+08:004.4611135249208616
2026-01-29T17:18:46+08:004.48865164587342
2026-01-29T17:19:00+08:004.48867233567128
2026-01-29T17:19:16+08:004.749363788715784
2026-01-29T17:45:56+08:005.74247408602818
2026-01-29T18:00:15+08:005.751825874661205
2026-01-29T18:04:53+08:006.3549955516934595
2026-01-29T18:05:44+08:006.371299112407672
2026-01-29T18:06:10+08:006.3700370347381705
2026-01-29T18:06:33+08:006.314174580514348
2026-01-29T19:47:02+08:006.3216229077441914
2026-01-29T19:47:25+08:006.3525334657480395
2026-01-29T19:47:48+08:006.353588645438934
2026-01-29T19:48:06+08:006.535658866612873
2026-01-29T19:48:15+08:006.536196801357251
2026-01-29T20:03:27+08:006.552334843688577
2026-01-29T20:03:47+08:006.5806384871619805
2026-01-29T20:13:51+08:006.686156456251423
2026-01-29T21:35:40+08:006.705687625431899
2026-01-29T21:35:58+08:006.72194980655039
2026-01-29T21:36:18+08:006.815053896923427
2026-01-29T22:06:06+08:006.855750729315375
2026-01-29T22:06:30+08:006.885916454596239
2026-01-29T22:06:49+08:007.150745867212877
2026-01-30T08:54:00+08:007.188049572755674
2026-01-30T08:54:17+08:007.1804771067386675
2026-01-30T08:54:40+08:007.1804771067386675
2026-01-30T08:54:56+08:007.338981648149297
2026-01-30T08:55:02+08:007.42182359878344
2026-01-30T08:55:10+08:008.276312250429314
2026-01-30T09:01:02+08:008.316864254236236
2026-01-30T09:04:23+08:008.339726480872281
2026-01-30T09:04:32+08:008.350361036972668
2026-01-30T09:08:12+08:008.437258187987503
2026-01-30T10:12:41+08:008.458879026751909
2026-01-30T10:12:46+08:008.463803198642749
2026-01-30T10:12:58+08:008.464175615004242
2026-01-30T10:13:05+08:008.461258353505887
2026-01-30T10:13:12+08:008.478265367347362
2026-01-30T10:13:17+08:008.51964496306871
2026-01-30T10:13:26+08:008.550679659859723
2026-01-30T11:07:17+08:008.644652721742908
2026-01-30T11:08:20+08:008.915937351292078
2026-01-30T11:09:01+08:008.910744212029048
2026-01-30T11:09:16+08:009.08246953427265
2026-01-30T11:11:39+08:009.245918937371982
2026-01-30T11:30:57+08:009.26393975130863
2026-01-30T12:14:31+08:009.286284732998158
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2026-01-30T12:15:43+08:009.291208904888999
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2026-01-30T12:41:10+08:009.589866137007842
2026-01-30T13:42:51+08:009.604390375106036
2026-01-30T13:43:18+08:009.593590300622763
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2026-01-30T13:49:54+08:009.713529058821095
2026-01-30T14:03:16+08:009.725467072186705
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2026-01-30T14:06:01+08:009.962323878095711
2026-01-30T14:08:16+08:0010.011420768419093
2026-01-30T15:10:10+08:0010.05269691515114
2026-01-30T15:10:43+08:0010.098979992965468
2026-01-30T15:12:08+08:0010.111538700266898
2026-01-30T15:12:39+08:0011.218442885813005
2026-01-30T15:48:01+08:0011.239132683673681
2026-01-30T15:54:45+08:0011.611549045165829
2026-01-30T16:06:42+08:0011.627004324167753
2026-01-30T16:07:19+08:0011.670349450685867
2026-01-30T16:08:24+08:0011.680508141435459
2026-01-30T16:09:30+08:0011.92671673597749
2026-01-30T17:10:57+08:0011.93008917302878
2026-01-30T17:11:26+08:0011.99478617093911
2026-01-30T17:12:45+08:0011.992551672770157
2026-01-30T17:13:22+08:0012.770488072331533
2026-01-30T18:09:36+08:0012.765625969834275
2026-01-30T18:11:09+08:0014.255291415802867
2026-01-30T18:11:14+08:0015.703577266050111
2026-01-30T18:12:13+08:0015.711129042269256
2026-01-30T18:13:01+08:0015.71671528769164
2026-01-30T18:13:28+08:0015.799039993379266
2026-01-30T18:15:04+08:0015.95214449754826
2026-01-30T18:18:37+08:0015.962944572031532
2026-01-30T18:21:53+08:0016.511782839881654
2026-01-30T19:58:25+08:0016.514886309560755
2026-01-30T19:59:49+08:0016.507148325160863
2026-01-30T20:00:03+08:0016.560569383237127
2026-01-30T20:00:32+08:0016.659880412968366
2026-01-30T20:04:09+08:0016.77274326029835
2026-01-30T20:04:23+08:0016.779177787433017
2026-01-30T20:05:28+08:0016.77710880764695
2026-01-30T21:21:44+08:0016.78304677963296
2026-01-30T21:21:58+08:0016.787039910620074
2026-01-30T21:22:21+08:0017.03738646473424
2026-01-30T21:22:35+08:0017.037572672914987
2026-01-30T22:03:46+08:0017.058345229967102
2026-01-30T22:03:55+08:0017.06221422216705
2026-01-30T22:05:50+08:0017.405664866654252
2026-01-31T10:30:59+08:0017.484617135290588
2026-01-31T10:31:14+08:0017.484803343471334
2026-01-31T10:31:28+08:0017.484803343471334
2026-01-31T10:31:45+08:0017.585935075414312
2026-01-31T10:31:54+08:0019.29284339891999
2026-01-31T10:32:04+08:0019.301533114021478
2026-01-31T10:32:32+08:0019.360312829743652
2026-01-31T10:32:40+08:0019.391347526534666
2026-01-31T10:32:48+08:0019.393809612480087
2026-01-31T10:33:14+08:0019.420644280305382
2026-01-31T10:33:24+08:0019.44365133552645
2026-01-31T10:33:34+08:0019.5677901226905
2026-01-31T11:08:44+08:0019.56905220036
2026-01-31T11:09:29+08:0019.57391430285726
2026-01-31T11:09:53+08:0019.601638631990564
2026-01-31T11:12:35+08:0019.75474313615956
2026-01-31T13:32:09+08:0019.75660521796702
2026-01-31T13:33:56+08:0019.80441934082304
2026-01-31T13:35:11+08:0019.81205387623363
2026-01-31T13:35:49+08:0019.865847350671384
2026-01-31T13:36:26+08:0019.92791674425341
2026-01-31T16:26:36+08:0019.93871681873668
2026-01-31T16:28:04+08:0019.941799598617923
2026-01-31T16:30:21+08:0019.955765212173876
2026-01-31T16:31:24+08:0020.012724225684316
2026-01-31T16:33:39+08:0020.366519769101856
2026-01-31T16:33:57+08:0020.654107959365238
2026-01-31T18:30:48+08:0020.65479072269464
2026-01-31T18:33:09+08:0020.662632156083834
2026-01-31T18:34:50+08:0020.67773570852213
2026-01-31T18:35:27+08:0020.909461444561686
2026-01-31T18:35:50+08:0021.05429002958641
2026-01-31T20:25:21+08:0021.063972854985206
2026-01-31T20:27:47+08:0021.069103924854655
2026-01-31T20:29:06+08:0021.081972979123993
2026-01-31T20:29:40+08:0021.156456251422423
2026-01-31T20:30:00+08:0021.324043614093892
2026-01-31T21:25:37+08:0021.3328781577804
2026-01-31T21:26:02+08:0021.3378230194691
2026-01-31T21:26:11+08:0021.37920261519045
2026-02-01T10:25:18+08:0021.37957503155194
2026-02-01T10:26:08+08:0021.525210518693232
2026-02-01T10:30:54+08:0021.532265739763723
2026-02-01T10:31:40+08:0021.867171497734468
2026-02-01T10:34:40+08:0023.363043883061263
2026-02-01T10:35:03+08:0023.55339002337947
2026-02-01T13:27:28+08:0023.571390147518258
2026-02-01T13:27:42+08:0023.571224629135372
2026-02-01T13:28:22+08:0023.57141083731612
2026-02-01T13:28:31+08:0023.5745763763888
2026-02-01T13:28:39+08:0023.57943847888606
2026-02-01T13:30:06+08:0023.589183373678438
2026-02-01T13:30:27+08:0023.590279932965053
2026-02-01T13:31:01+08:0023.60089379926758
2026-02-01T13:32:06+08:0023.753377609500756
2026-02-01T13:32:29+08:0023.78207435913351
2026-02-01T13:32:54+08:0023.810605590383382
2026-02-01T13:36:45+08:0023.889226822253946
2026-02-01T13:37:04+08:0024.08577990193036
2026-02-01T13:37:24+08:0024.228539507169014
2026-02-01T16:31:59+08:0024.234105062793535
2026-02-01T16:38:59+08:0024.42945813419403
2026-02-01T16:39:41+08:0024.465458382471603
2026-02-01T16:40:19+08:0024.46783770922558
2026-02-01T16:41:06+08:0024.877495706866945
2026-02-01T16:41:29+08:0025.330602280015725
2026-02-01T19:41:15+08:0025.330622969813586
2026-02-01T19:41:26+08:0025.330809177994333
2026-02-01T19:43:17+08:0025.335650590693728
2026-02-01T19:45:09+08:0025.358843854095547
2026-02-01T19:46:23+08:0025.44687894399272
2026-02-01T19:46:58+08:0025.935158173504647
2026-02-01T19:47:20+08:0026.26826391906151
2026-02-01T21:32:48+08:0026.268450127242257
2026-02-01T21:35:46+08:0026.322057393499264
2026-02-01T21:36:35+08:0026.327147083772992
2026-02-01T21:36:57+08:0026.39358202470362
2026-02-01T21:37:20+08:0026.745308588335092
2026-02-01T21:37:37+08:0027.152897606190386
2026-02-02T08:50:46+08:0027.167587362671465
2026-02-02T08:56:05+08:0027.24035338174746
2026-02-02T08:57:49+08:0028.024951896219974
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2026-02-02T08:59:41+08:0030.3463472161877
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2026-02-02T09:08:46+08:0031.499327581569528
2026-02-02T09:09:14+08:0031.49914137338878
2026-02-02T09:09:43+08:0032.041214077338466
2026-02-02T10:13:02+08:0032.165352864502516
2026-02-02T10:13:31+08:0032.16700804833137
2026-02-02T10:13:40+08:0032.1778288126125
2026-02-02T10:13:43+08:0032.188670266691496
2026-02-02T10:14:30+08:0032.57666604597273
2026-02-02T10:15:58+08:0032.69188753025883
2026-02-02T10:16:22+08:0032.69492893054435
2026-02-02T10:17:40+08:0033.88666128731922
2026-02-02T10:18:00+08:0033.88755094862723
2026-02-02T11:11:19+08:0033.92179256408665
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2026-02-02T11:11:33+08:0033.92526845012724
2026-02-02T11:12:14+08:0034.005793143400986
2026-02-02T11:14:32+08:0034.90462003186229
2026-02-02T11:15:26+08:0034.96896530320899
2026-02-02T11:15:49+08:0037.1889806136594
2026-02-02T12:25:20+08:0037.60362485258519
2026-02-02T12:25:47+08:0037.68638404402789
2026-02-02T12:26:07+08:0037.70192208222126
2026-02-02T12:30:56+08:0037.874371547389984
2026-02-02T12:31:21+08:0037.927730536072666
2026-02-02T12:31:42+08:0039.05118655990731
2026-02-02T12:32:29+08:0040.273663956303146
2026-02-02T13:43:05+08:0040.45308588335092
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捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
+4.6%
→
參與人數
15,563
→
人均手數
30.6
→
認購倍數
9x
9x = 15,563 × 30.6 ÷ 50,452 A+H二次上市 · 參與×0.44 H股折價 39.9% 孖展加權 100% → 313.8x
1x2068.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.56
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.66
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 446.39x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.562, 乙組 α=0.662) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌大族数控中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手;非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

機制B

《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%,不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%(因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者,基石投資者除外)。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益,自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 大族数控(03200)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α,覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測,查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析