孖展動態 孖展倍數112.51x 孖展資金517.7億 捷利預測倍數150.76x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 330.0億
2 老虎国际老虎 58.0億
3 辉立证券辉立 54.0億
4 华泰国际华泰 30.0億
5 致富证券致富 11.7億
6 华盛证券华盛 8.1億
7 复星国际复星 7.5億
8 盈立证券盈立 5.9億
9 熊猫证券熊猫 4.9億
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2026-06-17T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-17T10:12:12+08:000.0005216257335361878
2026-06-17T10:12:18+08:000.00269506628993697
2026-06-17T10:12:24+08:000.017909150184742446
2026-06-17T11:16:00+08:000.02016952836339926
2026-06-17T11:18:15+08:000.026255161921321452
2026-06-17T11:19:10+08:000.0397304933710063
2026-06-17T11:20:02+08:000.2701151923494892
2026-06-17T12:15:00+08:000.2705498804607694
2026-06-17T12:16:39+08:000.28317757009345795
2026-06-17T12:19:02+08:000.28402521191045427
2026-06-17T12:20:00+08:000.2847207128885025
2026-06-17T12:20:48+08:000.28906759400130405
2026-06-17T13:43:29+08:000.28939361008476416
2026-06-17T13:44:27+08:000.2894805477070202
2026-06-17T13:46:03+08:000.2912845033688329
2026-06-17T13:48:09+08:000.2963920886763747
2026-06-17T13:50:38+08:000.3072592914583786
2026-06-17T14:08:06+08:000.30786785481417084
2026-06-17T14:08:42+08:000.30799826124755486
2026-06-17T14:10:35+08:000.31903933927407085
2026-06-17T14:11:38+08:000.3190610736796349
2026-06-17T14:12:49+08:000.34296891980004346
2026-06-17T14:14:36+08:000.34994566398609
2026-06-17T15:07:35+08:000.3532058248206911
2026-06-17T15:09:25+08:000.3542925450988915
2026-06-17T15:09:58+08:000.35546620299934795
2026-06-17T15:11:32+08:000.8683981743099326
2026-06-17T16:27:12+08:000.8684416431210606
2026-06-17T16:28:09+08:000.8697674418604651
2026-06-17T16:31:18+08:000.8827646163877418
2026-06-17T16:32:50+08:000.9131927841773527
2026-06-17T16:34:50+08:000.9262334275157574
2026-06-17T16:36:02+08:000.935970441208433
2026-06-17T17:01:31+08:000.9381873505759617
2026-06-17T17:02:19+08:000.9385133666594219
2026-06-17T17:04:22+08:000.9409041512714628
2026-06-17T17:05:30+08:000.9412084329493589
2026-06-17T17:06:12+08:000.9420995435774832
2026-06-17T17:07:06+08:000.9660073896978918
2026-06-17T18:04:17+08:000.9707672245164095
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2026-06-17T18:08:49+08:000.9905020647685285
2026-06-17T18:09:26+08:001.527341882199522
2026-06-17T18:13:02+08:001.5423386220386872
2026-06-17T20:22:01+08:002.042229950010867
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2026-06-17T20:24:34+08:002.0426646381221474
2026-06-17T20:25:42+08:002.043751358400348
2026-06-17T20:26:57+08:002.0956531188871983
2026-06-17T20:32:09+08:002.0958269941317105
2026-06-17T20:33:15+08:002.1197348402521192
2026-06-17T22:23:53+08:002.119778309063247
2026-06-17T22:25:32+08:002.1205607476635513
2026-06-17T22:27:24+08:002.1265377091936535
2026-06-17T22:28:39+08:002.1569658769832647
2026-06-18T09:14:40+08:002.1591393175396654
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2026-06-18T09:14:58+08:002.17787437513584
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2026-06-18T09:15:24+08:002.047315800912845
2026-06-18T09:15:35+08:002.047337535318409
2026-06-18T09:15:42+08:002.0573353618778527
2026-06-18T09:15:50+08:002.0725494457726583
2026-06-18T10:02:53+08:002.0734840252119104
2026-06-18T10:02:59+08:002.0736144316452947
2026-06-18T10:04:02+08:002.0762442947185393
2026-06-18T10:04:08+08:002.0934362095196697
2026-06-18T10:09:34+08:002.139078461204086
2026-06-18T11:19:20+08:002.141751793088459
2026-06-18T11:20:18+08:002.142360356444251
2026-06-18T11:22:34+08:002.1440121712671156
2026-06-18T11:23:32+08:002.1457726581178003
2026-06-18T11:25:35+08:002.169680504238209
2026-06-18T12:16:54+08:002.1736144316452943
2026-06-18T12:19:05+08:002.178222125624864
2026-06-18T12:20:27+08:002.1791567050641163
2026-06-18T12:22:38+08:002.1846337752662466
2026-06-18T12:23:12+08:002.197674418604651
2026-06-18T14:05:41+08:002.1988046076939796
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2026-06-18T14:09:40+08:002.203542708106933
2026-06-18T14:09:43+08:002.208280808519887
2026-06-18T14:11:20+08:002.208346011736579
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2026-06-18T14:12:28+08:002.2453814388176485
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2026-06-18T15:09:26+08:002.327863507933058
2026-06-18T15:10:34+08:002.328211258422082
2026-06-18T15:10:40+08:002.330015214083895
2026-06-18T15:10:46+08:002.330471636600739
2026-06-18T15:11:00+08:002.330493371006303
2026-06-18T15:11:06+08:002.3435340143447076
2026-06-18T16:12:13+08:002.3454031732232123
2026-06-18T16:12:44+08:002.3455335796565966
2026-06-18T16:14:32+08:002.3986742012605955
2026-06-18T16:15:31+08:002.3987828732884156
2026-06-18T16:16:41+08:002.399478374266464
2026-06-18T16:17:40+08:002.799391436644208
2026-06-18T17:48:04+08:002.8435340143447076
2026-06-18T17:50:03+08:002.853379700065203
2026-06-18T17:51:53+08:002.8536187785264073
2026-06-18T17:53:06+08:002.857530971527929
2026-06-18T17:53:50+08:003.0531406216039993
2026-06-18T17:55:58+08:003.313953488372093
2026-06-18T18:09:35+08:003.3285155400999784
2026-06-18T18:09:57+08:003.3432079982612475
2026-06-18T18:10:04+08:003.344446859378396
2026-06-18T18:10:11+08:003.354966311671376
2026-06-18T18:10:28+08:003.6788089545750924
2026-06-18T18:18:12+08:004.1715713975222775
2026-06-18T20:30:18+08:004.172984133883938
2026-06-18T20:30:52+08:004.1897630949793525
2026-06-18T20:32:38+08:004.201782221256249
2026-06-18T20:33:50+08:004.229558791567051
2026-06-18T20:35:03+08:004.237904803303629
2026-06-18T20:35:58+08:004.281373614431645
2026-06-18T21:34:53+08:004.282786350793306
2026-06-18T22:09:12+08:004.284199087154966
2026-06-18T22:09:30+08:004.295979134970659
2026-06-18T22:10:15+08:004.3005868289502285
2026-06-18T22:10:36+08:004.350575961747446
2026-06-19T09:15:45+08:004.146272549445773
2026-06-19T09:15:50+08:004.19408824168659
2026-06-19T09:19:59+08:004.200912845033688
2026-06-19T09:22:09+08:004.206628993697023
2026-06-19T09:24:39+08:004.255357530971528
2026-06-19T09:27:11+08:004.258269941317105
2026-06-19T09:27:16+08:004.261421430123886
2026-06-19T09:30:53+08:004.281916974570746
2026-06-19T10:16:35+08:004.282025646598566
2026-06-19T10:17:37+08:004.282590741143229
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2026-06-19T10:23:25+08:004.284959791349706
2026-06-19T10:24:54+08:004.306694196913714
2026-06-19T11:40:18+08:004.307715713975223
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2026-06-19T11:43:28+08:004.311041078026516
2026-06-19T11:44:46+08:004.3111714844599
2026-06-19T11:45:39+08:004.369723973049337
2026-06-19T11:50:39+08:004.371897413605738
2026-06-19T12:08:13+08:004.373179743534014
2026-06-19T12:10:12+08:004.37370136926755
2026-06-19T12:11:33+08:004.376700717235384
2026-06-19T12:12:55+08:004.379091501847425
2026-06-19T12:13:34+08:004.379004564225168
2026-06-19T12:14:46+08:004.4268202564659855
2026-06-19T14:12:40+08:004.427102803738317
2026-06-19T14:12:55+08:004.427341882199522
2026-06-19T14:18:12+08:004.428102586394262
2026-06-19T14:18:16+08:004.429406650728103
2026-06-19T14:20:08+08:004.42988480765051
2026-06-19T14:20:12+08:004.430123886111715
2026-06-19T14:23:21+08:004.430732449467507
2026-06-19T14:23:25+08:004.437817865681374
2026-06-19T14:24:51+08:004.4462290806346445
2026-06-19T14:24:55+08:004.457965659639209
2026-06-19T14:27:08+08:004.497087589654423
2026-06-19T14:27:13+08:004.510128232992828
2026-06-19T15:16:11+08:004.510149967398392
2026-06-19T15:16:57+08:004.510562921104108
2026-06-19T15:18:13+08:004.523451423603564
2026-06-19T15:18:54+08:004.524103455770485
2026-06-19T15:19:59+08:004.524255596609433
2026-06-19T15:21:26+08:004.539469680504238
2026-06-19T17:10:26+08:004.5396000869376225
2026-06-19T17:10:30+08:004.54007824386003
2026-06-19T17:12:52+08:004.540099978265594
2026-06-19T17:15:03+08:004.922625516192132
2026-06-19T17:15:07+08:004.933492718974136
2026-06-19T17:18:06+08:004.934666376874593
2026-06-19T17:18:09+08:004.934861986524669
2026-06-19T17:20:19+08:004.937209302325582
2026-06-19T17:20:22+08:004.938274288198218
2026-06-19T17:23:00+08:004.9399695718322105
2026-06-19T17:23:04+08:004.940143447076722
2026-06-19T22:46:55+08:004.941534449032819
2026-06-19T22:53:53+08:004.945837861334493
2026-06-19T22:58:02+08:004.947054988046077
2026-06-19T23:06:37+08:004.947859161051945
2026-06-19T23:06:41+08:004.952119104542491
2026-06-19T23:11:20+08:004.953162356009563
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2026-06-19T23:17:01+08:005.320973701369268
2026-06-19T23:23:49+08:005.32256031297544
2026-06-19T23:25:23+08:005.324994566398609
2026-06-20T10:23:09+08:005.324994566398609
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2026-06-20T12:20:20+08:005.522842860247772
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捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
+4.6%
→
參與人數
15,760
→
人均手數
32.2
→
認購倍數
9x
9x = 15,760 × 32.2 ÷ 54,002 A+H二次上市 · 參與×0.44 H股折價 40.4% 孖展加權 100% → 150.8x
1x2173.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.54
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.64
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 251.73x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.541, 乙組 α=0.641) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌圣邦股份中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手;非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

機制B

《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%,不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%(因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者,基石投資者除外)。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益,自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 圣邦股份(03661)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α,覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測,查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析