孖展動態 孖展倍數4572.65x 孖展資金2438.6億 捷利預測倍數5898.72x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 1437.0億
2 辉立证券辉立 482.0億
3 老虎国际老虎 230.1億
4 华泰国际华泰 98.7億
5 盈立证券盈立 43.5億
6 致富证券致富 43.2億
7 复星国际复星 35.8億
8 华盛证券华盛 30.2億
9 熊猫证券熊猫 14.8億
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2026-06-15T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-15T10:09:32+08:000.08400525032814551
2026-06-15T10:09:39+08:000.13032064504031501
2026-06-15T10:09:45+08:000.15938496156009752
2026-06-15T10:09:57+08:000.34689668104256516
2026-06-15T11:07:41+08:000.39996249765610353
2026-06-15T11:08:46+08:000.6084755297206076
2026-06-15T11:09:52+08:000.6651040690043127
2026-06-15T11:10:38+08:000.6654790924432777
2026-06-15T11:11:17+08:002.1843240202512657
2026-06-15T12:09:14+08:002.33433339583724
2026-06-15T12:10:15+08:002.4183386461653855
2026-06-15T12:11:49+08:002.6409150571910742
2026-06-15T12:12:17+08:005.153572098256141
2026-06-15T12:14:10+08:005.2257641102568915
2026-06-15T12:15:04+08:005.401462591411963
2026-06-15T13:46:23+08:005.428089255578474
2026-06-15T13:47:52+08:005.5233452090755675
2026-06-15T13:49:28+08:005.537033564597787
2026-06-15T13:49:53+08:005.558784924057754
2026-06-15T13:50:22+08:006.777611100693793
2026-06-15T14:01:23+08:006.875117194824677
2026-06-15T14:01:55+08:006.879617476092256
2026-06-15T14:03:29+08:007.021001312582037
2026-06-15T14:03:57+08:007.068441777611101
2026-06-15T14:04:39+08:007.175698481155072
2026-06-15T14:07:18+08:007.207200450028127
2026-06-15T14:07:51+08:008.369773110819427
2026-06-15T15:09:29+08:008.395087192949559
2026-06-15T15:11:03+08:008.396024751546971
2026-06-15T15:11:36+08:008.439902493905869
2026-06-15T15:12:11+08:008.476092255765986
2026-06-15T15:12:34+08:008.499156197262328
2026-06-15T15:13:08+08:009.549221826364148
2026-06-15T16:12:46+08:009.577723607725483
2026-06-15T16:13:39+08:009.578661166322895
2026-06-15T16:14:23+08:0010.086817926120382
2026-06-15T16:15:11+08:0010.10331895743484
2026-06-15T16:15:44+08:0010.281455090943185
2026-06-15T16:16:17+08:0012.04406525407838
2026-06-15T16:34:58+08:0012.175323457716107
2026-06-15T17:04:16+08:0012.168385524095257
2026-06-15T17:04:44+08:0012.411400712544534
2026-06-15T17:05:45+08:0013.849990624414026
2026-06-15T17:06:09+08:0013.945434089630602
2026-06-15T17:06:45+08:0016.350834427151696
2026-06-15T17:07:34+08:0021.676167260453777
2026-06-15T18:08:21+08:0021.797674854678416
2026-06-15T18:09:13+08:0027.98556159759985
2026-06-15T18:09:27+08:0028.548096756047254
2026-06-15T18:10:06+08:0029.63828989311832
2026-06-15T18:11:04+08:0029.83798987436715
2026-06-15T18:11:37+08:0030.608475529720607
2026-06-15T18:14:35+08:0031.602287642977686
2026-06-15T18:15:41+08:0032.37446090380649
2026-06-15T20:19:01+08:0033.0588786799175
2026-06-15T20:20:55+08:0033.1518844927808
2026-06-15T20:22:24+08:0034.96268516782299
2026-06-15T20:23:00+08:0035.56403525220326
2026-06-15T20:24:02+08:0035.780986311644476
2026-06-15T20:24:44+08:0040.20626289143071
2026-06-15T20:25:11+08:0041.74385899118695
2026-06-15T21:47:30+08:0041.79692480780049
2026-06-15T22:06:33+08:0042.959497468591785
2026-06-15T22:06:42+08:0043.069754359647476
2026-06-15T22:07:20+08:0043.57734858428652
2026-06-15T22:07:37+08:0043.672979561222576
2026-06-15T22:08:05+08:0048.079504969060565
2026-06-16T08:50:58+08:0048.079504969060565
2026-06-16T08:52:12+08:0048.134820926307896
2026-06-16T08:52:16+08:0048.2203262703919
2026-06-16T08:54:02+08:0048.7776111006938
2026-06-16T08:54:05+08:0049.80948809300581
2026-06-16T08:54:30+08:0059.953872117007315
2026-06-16T09:01:29+08:0061.67560472529533
2026-06-16T09:06:54+08:0063.547159197449844
2026-06-16T09:09:36+08:0063.79392462028877
2026-06-16T09:10:06+08:0063.79804987811738
2026-06-16T09:10:46+08:0064.47984249015563
2026-06-16T09:11:20+08:0068.38008625539096
2026-06-16T09:11:55+08:0069.41946371648228
2026-06-16T10:20:52+08:0070.48790549409338
2026-06-16T10:21:59+08:0070.92874554659666
2026-06-16T10:22:29+08:0070.9369960622539
2026-06-16T10:22:50+08:0076.44984061503844
2026-06-16T10:23:35+08:0076.92143258953685
2026-06-16T10:24:02+08:0078.14869679354959
2026-06-16T11:15:29+08:0078.3208325520345
2026-06-16T11:15:51+08:0078.32589536846052
2026-06-16T11:16:19+08:0079.12563285205326
2026-06-16T11:17:03+08:0079.14269641852616
2026-06-16T11:17:22+08:0079.85880367522971
2026-06-16T11:17:43+08:0083.81530095630977
2026-06-16T12:04:09+08:0084.56441027564223
2026-06-16T12:05:41+08:0084.56216013500844
2026-06-16T12:06:12+08:0085.53140821301331
2026-06-16T12:07:27+08:0085.55334708419277
2026-06-16T12:08:14+08:0085.63697731108195
2026-06-16T12:08:35+08:0089.0684417776111
2026-06-16T13:44:41+08:0089.27976748546784
2026-06-16T13:45:24+08:0089.33433339583723
2026-06-16T13:45:46+08:0089.34314644665291
2026-06-16T13:46:17+08:0091.08700543783986
2026-06-16T13:46:50+08:0091.15807237952372
2026-06-16T13:47:09+08:0091.50853178323645
2026-06-16T14:01:21+08:0092.01425089068067
2026-06-16T14:02:02+08:0092.04050253140821
2026-06-16T14:03:07+08:0094.12132008250515
2026-06-16T14:06:33+08:0094.2289518094881
2026-06-16T14:07:23+08:0094.73523345209075
2026-06-16T14:07:49+08:0094.73654603412713
2026-06-16T14:08:07+08:0097.08044252765798
2026-06-16T15:07:54+08:0097.64297768610538
2026-06-16T15:08:08+08:0097.64560285017814
2026-06-16T15:08:32+08:0097.96756047252953
2026-06-16T15:08:52+08:0098.07144196512282
2026-06-16T15:09:21+08:0098.14925932870804
2026-06-16T15:09:44+08:0098.33639602475155
2026-06-16T15:10:41+08:00100.51153197074817
2026-06-16T16:01:02+08:00100.66866679167448
2026-06-16T16:01:35+08:00100.84980311269454
2026-06-16T16:04:41+08:00101.16519782486405
2026-06-16T16:04:58+08:00101.5218451153197
2026-06-16T16:05:27+08:00101.53328333020814
2026-06-16T16:06:08+08:00103.40840052503282
2026-06-16T17:20:31+08:00104.44534033377086
2026-06-16T17:21:28+08:00104.91524470279393
2026-06-16T17:21:59+08:00104.95780986311644
2026-06-16T17:22:37+08:00105.18863678979936
2026-06-16T17:23:20+08:00105.68160510031878
2026-06-16T17:23:49+08:00111.5882242640165
2026-06-16T18:03:30+08:00111.64841552597038
2026-06-16T18:04:16+08:00139.2126382898931
2026-06-16T18:04:20+08:00139.24882805175324
2026-06-16T18:04:58+08:00139.78192387024188
2026-06-16T18:05:31+08:00140.0031876992312
2026-06-16T18:06:05+08:00140.11513219576224
2026-06-16T18:06:32+08:00142.85280330020626
2026-06-16T18:07:00+08:00144.19013688355523
2026-06-16T20:12:27+08:00144.3776486030377
2026-06-16T20:14:53+08:00144.50009375585975
2026-06-16T20:15:43+08:00144.88805550346896
2026-06-16T20:27:16+08:00144.92143258953683
2026-06-16T20:28:11+08:00145.25801612600787
2026-06-16T20:29:07+08:00146.34314644665292
2026-06-16T20:30:31+08:00149.90586911681982
2026-06-16T20:30:51+08:00152.1935120945059
2026-06-16T21:56:19+08:00152.28745546596662
2026-06-16T22:06:46+08:00156.18769923120195
2026-06-16T22:06:55+08:00157.31633227076694
2026-06-16T22:07:23+08:00158.00356272267015
2026-06-16T22:07:37+08:00158.1295705981624
2026-06-16T22:07:59+08:00159.2171385711607
2026-06-17T09:15:38+08:00160.00337521095068
2026-06-17T09:15:44+08:00160.11738233639602
2026-06-17T09:15:57+08:00160.11738233639602
2026-06-17T09:16:03+08:00162.63041440090007
2026-06-17T09:16:09+08:00162.93137071066943
2026-06-17T09:16:15+08:00177.5197824864054
2026-06-17T09:16:21+08:00178.59291205700356
2026-06-17T09:16:34+08:00179.04237764860304
2026-06-17T09:16:40+08:00179.60172510781925
2026-06-17T09:16:45+08:00180.09206825426588
2026-06-17T09:16:52+08:00180.19857491093194
2026-06-17T09:16:58+08:00184.58634914682168
2026-06-17T10:07:13+08:00185.1488843052691
2026-06-17T10:07:19+08:00185.34258391149447
2026-06-17T10:07:31+08:00185.5218451153197
2026-06-17T10:08:00+08:00186.5077817363585
2026-06-17T10:08:07+08:00186.8843052690793
2026-06-17T10:08:18+08:00197.89124320270017
2026-06-17T11:16:10+08:00198.10856928558036
2026-06-17T11:16:26+08:00198.37614850928182
2026-06-17T11:18:28+08:00201.57997374835927
2026-06-17T11:18:44+08:00202.21901368835552
2026-06-17T11:19:20+08:00202.7646727920495
2026-06-17T11:20:05+08:00215.12169510594413
2026-06-17T12:14:25+08:00215.18488655540972
2026-06-17T12:14:58+08:00215.40802550159384
2026-06-17T12:16:50+08:00216.9818113632102
2026-06-17T12:19:13+08:00217.63453965872867
2026-06-17T12:20:11+08:00219.5559722482655
2026-06-17T12:20:51+08:00233.00056253515845
2026-06-17T13:43:41+08:00233.60491280705045
2026-06-17T13:44:41+08:00233.9444965310332
2026-06-17T13:46:13+08:00235.28089255578473
2026-06-17T13:46:29+08:00235.31164447777985
2026-06-17T13:48:20+08:00235.58784924057753
2026-06-17T13:50:35+08:00244.8696793549597
2026-06-17T14:08:19+08:00245.2546409150572
2026-06-17T14:08:55+08:00245.33077067316708
2026-06-17T14:10:47+08:00246.261953872117
2026-06-17T14:11:00+08:00246.27939246202888
2026-06-17T14:11:49+08:00246.90736921057567
2026-06-17T14:12:45+08:00256.65797862366395
2026-06-17T14:13:45+08:00264.5040315019689
2026-06-17T15:07:24+08:00266.1661353834615
2026-06-17T15:07:51+08:00266.2630789424339
2026-06-17T15:08:30+08:00266.4204012750797
2026-06-17T15:09:35+08:00267.48828051753236
2026-06-17T15:10:11+08:00267.6973560847553
2026-06-17T15:11:29+08:00277.29795612225763
2026-06-17T16:27:17+08:00277.54622163885244
2026-06-17T16:28:25+08:00281.4305269079317
2026-06-17T16:31:32+08:00332.69248078004875
2026-06-17T16:32:05+08:00332.84699043690233
2026-06-17T16:32:53+08:00448.12919557472344
2026-06-17T16:34:36+08:00461.44252765797864
2026-06-17T16:35:53+08:00463.0343146446653
2026-06-17T16:50:44+08:00466.59703731483216
2026-06-17T17:01:42+08:00495.9594974685918
2026-06-17T17:02:44+08:00502.89349334333394
2026-06-17T17:04:33+08:00537.5870991936996
2026-06-17T17:05:27+08:00537.7311081942621
2026-06-17T17:06:23+08:00553.6495405962872
2026-06-17T17:07:04+08:00853.1245077817364
2026-06-17T17:36:05+08:00857.6247890493156
2026-06-17T18:03:55+08:00861.7020438777423
2026-06-17T18:05:02+08:00871.0378773673355
2026-06-17T18:07:21+08:00879.2925182823926
2026-06-17T18:08:12+08:00885.5329083067692
2026-06-17T18:08:31+08:00911.9863116444777
2026-06-17T18:09:21+08:001080.5780986311645
2026-06-17T18:11:09+08:001139.0174385899118
2026-06-17T20:22:25+08:001377.157322332646
2026-06-17T20:23:16+08:001396.609038064879
2026-06-17T20:24:14+08:001402.29345584099
2026-06-17T20:25:27+08:001411.049315582224
2026-06-17T20:26:37+08:001449.9885617851116
2026-06-17T20:32:22+08:001456.0151884492782
2026-06-17T20:33:11+08:001712.4374648415526
2026-06-17T22:24:02+08:001719.653290830677
2026-06-17T22:25:16+08:001728.3339583723982
2026-06-17T22:26:03+08:001730.6862928933058
2026-06-17T22:26:24+08:001733.2458278642416
2026-06-17T22:27:03+08:001776.5595349709356
2026-06-17T22:28:35+08:002089.422838927433
2026-06-18T09:07:59+08:002121.349146821676
2026-06-18T09:08:06+08:002123.8424901556346
2026-06-18T09:08:13+08:002138.7121695105943
2026-06-18T09:08:31+08:002138.7121695105943
2026-06-18T09:08:49+08:002235.8569285580347
2026-06-18T09:08:57+08:002240.4948434277144
2026-06-18T09:09:05+08:003024.312582036377
2026-06-18T09:09:19+08:003045.97093568348
2026-06-18T09:09:33+08:003073.363772735796
2026-06-18T09:09:39+08:003091.5524095255955
2026-06-18T09:09:45+08:003121.4860303768987
2026-06-18T09:09:52+08:003133.5914119632475
2026-06-18T09:10:00+08:003338.9167447965497
2026-06-18T09:10:06+08:003339.6204762797674
2026-06-18T10:02:25+08:003345.6111006937936
2026-06-18T10:09:49+08:003392.2002625164073
2026-06-18T10:09:57+08:003778.793174573411
2026-06-18T10:46:49+08:004410.707669229327
2026-06-18T11:22:14+08:004416.388149259329
2026-06-18T14:21:33+08:004572.65
捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
+4.6%
→
參與人數
33,268
→
人均手數
70.3
→
認購倍數
223x
223x = 33,268 × 70.3 ÷ 10,498 機械人 孖展加權 100% → 5898.7x
1x18751.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.51
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.61
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 5934.56x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.509, 乙組 α=0.609) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌仙工智能中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手;非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

18C特專科技

《主板規則》第18C章,爲特專科技公司設立。機制A及機制B不適用。初訂分配份額爲5%,回補門檻:10倍至不足50倍→10%,50倍或以上→20%。根據第18C.08條,發售股份總數中至少50%須由配售部分的獨立定價投資者認購。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 仙工智能(06106)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α,覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測,查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析