思格新能 06656
新股中籤預測
221.6007.51%( -18.000 )
11月13日 · 收市數據，非即時 · 香港交易所
基於相似IPO匹配的期望中籤預測
新股中籤預測| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
2129.0億 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
733.0億 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
340.7億 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
109.9億 |
| 5 |  招银 |
70.0億 |
| 6 |  信诚 |
50.0億 |
| 7 |  华盛 |
45.5億 |
| 8 |  盈立 |
23.0億 |
| 9 |  长桥 |
22.0億 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-04-08T10:08:35+08:00 | 0.045447315199854565 |
| 2026-04-08T10:08:44+08:00 | 0.6581680187242939 |
| 2026-04-08T10:08:49+08:00 | 2.5124184788783603 |
| 2026-04-08T10:52:02+08:00 | 2.698752471197764 |
| 2026-04-08T11:14:02+08:00 | 2.7444951939464177 |
| 2026-04-08T11:14:21+08:00 | 3.264412479832754 |
| 2026-04-08T11:14:34+08:00 | 10.38146204012998 |
| 2026-04-08T11:14:42+08:00 | 10.613243347649238 |
| 2026-04-08T12:09:27+08:00 | 10.633194719021974 |
| 2026-04-08T12:09:40+08:00 | 11.625945872247597 |
| 2026-04-08T12:09:49+08:00 | 15.943440816233782 |
| 2026-04-08T13:38:13+08:00 | 15.94984888767696 |
| 2026-04-08T13:38:28+08:00 | 16.476015179403277 |
| 2026-04-08T13:38:34+08:00 | 21.104824232508463 |
| 2026-04-08T13:44:23+08:00 | 21.436589633467403 |
| 2026-04-08T14:11:00+08:00 | 21.442838639307382 |
| 2026-04-08T14:11:06+08:00 | 22.638148476378756 |
| 2026-04-08T14:11:12+08:00 | 25.110482423250847 |
| 2026-04-08T14:11:39+08:00 | 26.57295430272457 |
| 2026-04-08T15:03:43+08:00 | 26.580384938759742 |
| 2026-04-08T15:04:14+08:00 | 27.35226214011407 |
| 2026-04-08T15:05:17+08:00 | 30.851705410502873 |
| 2026-04-08T16:02:20+08:00 | 31.892221692003545 |
| 2026-04-08T16:04:07+08:00 | 32.89158542959075 |
| 2026-04-08T16:05:14+08:00 | 35.50935078510237 |
| 2026-04-08T17:09:14+08:00 | 35.51128229599836 |
| 2026-04-08T17:09:24+08:00 | 36.14111391369555 |
| 2026-04-08T17:09:30+08:00 | 37.772672529370325 |
| 2026-04-08T17:40:48+08:00 | 53.679232849319426 |
| 2026-04-08T17:50:50+08:00 | 54.133706001317975 |
| 2026-04-08T18:04:45+08:00 | 54.151657690821914 |
| 2026-04-08T18:04:53+08:00 | 55.219942281909695 |
| 2026-04-08T18:05:27+08:00 | 56.97827618333447 |
| 2026-04-08T18:05:47+08:00 | 60.01870157020474 |
| 2026-04-08T20:40:46+08:00 | 60.57188629081737 |
| 2026-04-08T20:40:51+08:00 | 61.01524757424955 |
| 2026-04-08T20:41:08+08:00 | 63.48758152112164 |
| 2026-04-08T20:41:13+08:00 | 65.12141250255641 |
| 2026-04-08T20:41:33+08:00 | 65.1272070352444 |
| 2026-04-09T08:41:35+08:00 | 66.66977980775786 |
| 2026-04-09T08:41:39+08:00 | 67.19483264026178 |
| 2026-04-09T08:41:43+08:00 | 67.87870111573159 |
| 2026-04-09T08:41:46+08:00 | 69.75478901083919 |
| 2026-04-09T08:42:10+08:00 | 69.75478901083919 |
| 2026-04-09T08:43:47+08:00 | 72.29756629627104 |
| 2026-04-09T08:43:54+08:00 | 75.70384257050014 |
| 2026-04-09T08:43:58+08:00 | 84.55016247415183 |
| 2026-04-09T09:37:14+08:00 | 84.58670211557252 |
| 2026-04-09T09:37:40+08:00 | 84.97573113368328 |
| 2026-04-09T09:37:48+08:00 | 85.99602335992002 |
| 2026-04-09T09:38:05+08:00 | 87.13220623991637 |
| 2026-04-09T09:38:35+08:00 | 88.52259867748313 |
| 2026-04-09T10:12:24+08:00 | 89.84827413820528 |
| 2026-04-09T10:12:47+08:00 | 90.34521780625809 |
| 2026-04-09T10:12:58+08:00 | 93.63560342672757 |
| 2026-04-09T11:01:18+08:00 | 93.79148771786306 |
| 2026-04-09T11:07:40+08:00 | 94.17738087122503 |
| 2026-04-09T11:08:21+08:00 | 98.85390960529007 |
| 2026-04-09T12:14:00+08:00 | 98.89283523075875 |
| 2026-04-09T12:14:57+08:00 | 99.26520780784875 |
| 2026-04-09T12:15:16+08:00 | 104.60299497807166 |
| 2026-04-09T13:44:37+08:00 | 104.65494125934511 |
| 2026-04-09T13:45:04+08:00 | 104.90058399800031 |
| 2026-04-09T13:45:52+08:00 | 107.43199945463222 |
| 2026-04-09T14:06:27+08:00 | 107.47492444383847 |
| 2026-04-09T14:07:14+08:00 | 107.70254732201695 |
| 2026-04-09T14:08:09+08:00 | 109.8476605994501 |
| 2026-04-09T14:09:37+08:00 | 110.30213375144864 |
| 2026-04-09T14:10:43+08:00 | 114.06792101256619 |
| 2026-04-09T14:11:21+08:00 | 115.04165246438066 |
| 2026-04-09T15:17:03+08:00 | 115.02379166950712 |
| 2026-04-09T15:17:20+08:00 | 117.34842184197969 |
| 2026-04-09T15:18:07+08:00 | 118.11005067375645 |
| 2026-04-09T15:18:40+08:00 | 118.19376462835459 |
| 2026-04-09T16:10:34+08:00 | 118.57654464062536 |
| 2026-04-09T16:10:57+08:00 | 118.92255777489945 |
| 2026-04-09T16:11:08+08:00 | 120.5018519780944 |
| 2026-04-09T16:12:23+08:00 | 120.64610175653873 |
| 2026-04-09T16:12:53+08:00 | 127.46319903651691 |
| 2026-04-09T17:07:25+08:00 | 127.54257277251347 |
| 2026-04-09T17:08:40+08:00 | 127.90771922648669 |
| 2026-04-09T17:08:50+08:00 | 127.98720658077124 |
| 2026-04-09T17:10:02+08:00 | 132.77280887131593 |
| 2026-04-09T18:04:55+08:00 | 132.8442293271525 |
| 2026-04-09T18:06:03+08:00 | 132.94853091553617 |
| 2026-04-09T18:06:24+08:00 | 133.25748176426478 |
| 2026-04-09T18:06:34+08:00 | 138.14761287976913 |
| 2026-04-09T18:07:11+08:00 | 160.87127047969642 |
| 2026-04-09T18:08:30+08:00 | 161.8068716340582 |
| 2026-04-09T22:30:40+08:00 | 163.14529506669393 |
| 2026-04-09T22:30:44+08:00 | 164.26784375213035 |
| 2026-04-09T22:30:48+08:00 | 165.5971777217261 |
| 2026-04-09T22:30:52+08:00 | 166.56975026700297 |
| 2026-04-09T22:32:30+08:00 | 166.83957097734452 |
| 2026-04-09T22:32:35+08:00 | 167.07791942191014 |
| 2026-04-09T22:32:39+08:00 | 167.24073442861362 |
| 2026-04-09T22:32:43+08:00 | 167.60401754266366 |
| 2026-04-09T22:36:18+08:00 | 167.7240893494217 |
| 2026-04-09T22:36:22+08:00 | 167.7227941009385 |
| 2026-04-09T22:36:26+08:00 | 167.9063558070307 |
| 2026-04-09T22:36:30+08:00 | 167.88735882927716 |
| 2026-04-09T22:41:03+08:00 | 167.9361692458018 |
| 2026-04-10T08:38:06+08:00 | 167.98868361851524 |
| 2026-04-10T08:38:14+08:00 | 168.20917126820734 |
| 2026-04-10T08:39:17+08:00 | 168.20917126820734 |
| 2026-04-10T08:39:41+08:00 | 168.24059808666803 |
| 2026-04-10T08:39:51+08:00 | 168.930420160429 |
| 2026-04-10T08:40:10+08:00 | 174.98627491080964 |
| 2026-04-10T09:07:00+08:00 | 175.01842888631353 |
| 2026-04-10T09:07:30+08:00 | 175.01804258413435 |
| 2026-04-10T09:07:52+08:00 | 175.0647624241598 |
| 2026-04-10T09:08:52+08:00 | 176.95082600495377 |
| 2026-04-10T09:10:18+08:00 | 177.42800009089464 |
| 2026-04-10T10:05:25+08:00 | 177.48842229645282 |
| 2026-04-10T10:05:46+08:00 | 177.57468130070217 |
| 2026-04-10T10:05:59+08:00 | 181.77174085940874 |
| 2026-04-10T10:07:47+08:00 | 182.46156293316972 |
| 2026-04-10T10:08:26+08:00 | 183.3705092371668 |
| 2026-04-10T11:11:24+08:00 | 183.38607494262277 |
| 2026-04-10T11:12:09+08:00 | 183.5008066898448 |
| 2026-04-10T11:12:29+08:00 | 184.46029040834412 |
| 2026-04-10T11:12:41+08:00 | 189.95941554752653 |
| 2026-04-10T11:36:51+08:00 | 190.1866521235258 |
| 2026-04-10T12:09:44+08:00 | 191.3500124980117 |
| 2026-04-10T12:10:13+08:00 | 191.39025609562114 |
| 2026-04-10T12:10:33+08:00 | 191.74288181425683 |
| 2026-04-10T12:10:56+08:00 | 194.60833503760765 |
| 2026-04-10T13:40:33+08:00 | 194.6881859704138 |
| 2026-04-10T13:40:59+08:00 | 194.751221396596 |
| 2026-04-10T13:41:19+08:00 | 195.56754607221578 |
| 2026-04-10T13:41:32+08:00 | 198.4057309064467 |
| 2026-04-10T14:13:19+08:00 | 198.45133728724974 |
| 2026-04-10T14:13:57+08:00 | 198.5301429318063 |
| 2026-04-10T14:14:22+08:00 | 199.5333015202127 |
| 2026-04-10T14:15:29+08:00 | 203.33724180244053 |
| 2026-04-10T14:18:14+08:00 | 205.78564773785988 |
| 2026-04-10T15:15:42+08:00 | 206.24805144636082 |
| 2026-04-10T15:16:25+08:00 | 209.97473129274888 |
| 2026-04-10T15:16:47+08:00 | 210.11961733360602 |
| 2026-04-10T15:17:49+08:00 | 210.1912195787034 |
| 2026-04-10T16:25:24+08:00 | 211.10016588270048 |
| 2026-04-10T16:26:19+08:00 | 212.70970527416094 |
| 2026-04-10T16:26:30+08:00 | 216.47956006998888 |
| 2026-04-10T16:59:16+08:00 | 221.02429158997433 |
| 2026-04-10T17:19:17+08:00 | 224.7259754130025 |
| 2026-04-10T17:20:51+08:00 | 226.18299361465222 |
| 2026-04-10T17:46:23+08:00 | 271.6303088145068 |
| 2026-04-10T18:03:27+08:00 | 273.4107528347763 |
| 2026-04-10T18:06:55+08:00 | 274.0298588860863 |
| 2026-04-10T18:07:26+08:00 | 276.4453836889586 |
| 2026-04-10T22:43:00+08:00 | 276.7476537823528 |
| 2026-04-10T22:43:04+08:00 | 277.4115708864499 |
| 2026-04-10T22:43:08+08:00 | 277.88879041970597 |
| 2026-04-10T22:43:13+08:00 | 279.07298838821094 |
| 2026-04-10T22:44:01+08:00 | 281.2976344672438 |
| 2026-04-10T22:44:05+08:00 | 284.67436998659304 |
| 2026-04-10T22:44:09+08:00 | 287.6170836457836 |
| 2026-04-10T22:44:13+08:00 | 290.14395437089553 |
| 2026-04-11T10:23:32+08:00 | 303.0009998409344 |
| 2026-04-11T10:23:35+08:00 | 305.1733815074874 |
| 2026-04-11T10:23:39+08:00 | 306.9185584111619 |
| 2026-04-11T10:26:24+08:00 | 308.71065966778013 |
| 2026-04-11T10:26:28+08:00 | 310.29758901992864 |
| 2026-04-11T10:26:31+08:00 | 310.51964460199514 |
| 2026-04-11T10:26:34+08:00 | 310.880155429818 |
| 2026-04-11T10:29:26+08:00 | 310.880155429818 |
| 2026-04-11T11:27:34+08:00 | 313.2888631354103 |
| 2026-04-11T11:29:00+08:00 | 313.4769241257073 |
| 2026-04-11T12:34:57+08:00 | 315.8356397845797 |
| 2026-04-11T12:36:09+08:00 | 316.26670756925034 |
| 2026-04-11T13:05:43+08:00 | 318.6935942009226 |
| 2026-04-11T13:06:33+08:00 | 319.6545549571659 |
| 2026-04-11T15:08:22+08:00 | 320.6475787942827 |
| 2026-04-11T15:08:46+08:00 | 323.058558865635 |
| 2026-04-11T15:10:27+08:00 | 323.50601040743516 |
| 2026-04-11T15:10:40+08:00 | 324.11277751266846 |
| 2026-04-11T18:06:20+08:00 | 325.7170677392233 |
| 2026-04-11T18:06:33+08:00 | 327.3327197945781 |
| 2026-04-11T18:06:46+08:00 | 329.64598813825074 |
| 2026-04-11T18:13:07+08:00 | 330.24464289772084 |
| 2026-04-11T18:13:18+08:00 | 330.58702024677893 |
| 2026-04-11T18:13:33+08:00 | 330.76924125707274 |
| 2026-04-11T22:53:10+08:00 | 333.78012588906313 |
| 2026-04-11T22:53:14+08:00 | 335.4684936487377 |
| 2026-04-11T22:53:18+08:00 | 336.8137341786534 |
| 2026-04-11T22:53:23+08:00 | 338.82023314472696 |
| 2026-04-11T22:59:02+08:00 | 339.2013088826778 |
| 2026-04-11T22:59:06+08:00 | 339.48899038789284 |
| 2026-04-11T22:59:09+08:00 | 339.8827232031268 |
| 2026-04-11T22:59:13+08:00 | 340.1307292021724 |
| 2026-04-12T10:20:07+08:00 | 343.37975776581 |
| 2026-04-12T10:22:37+08:00 | 356.9116958665667 |
| 2026-04-12T10:22:52+08:00 | 361.4746063126321 |
| 2026-04-12T13:12:55+08:00 | 364.237189538028 |
| 2026-04-12T13:14:22+08:00 | 372.39725498216194 |
| 2026-04-12T13:14:37+08:00 | 378.25995864294316 |
| 2026-04-12T16:24:21+08:00 | 379.73163360374485 |
| 2026-04-12T16:25:01+08:00 | 387.96441475219854 |
| 2026-04-12T16:25:18+08:00 | 393.13404685618195 |
| 2026-04-12T18:19:46+08:00 | 394.85840888949485 |
| 2026-04-12T18:20:35+08:00 | 400.20301315699777 |
| 2026-04-12T18:20:49+08:00 | 404.95452996114255 |
| 2026-04-12T20:09:01+08:00 | 406.9617560842593 |
| 2026-04-12T20:09:14+08:00 | 411.8677937600836 |
| 2026-04-12T20:09:30+08:00 | 418.8121435226214 |
| 2026-04-12T22:11:15+08:00 | 422.1450223828027 |
| 2026-04-12T22:12:04+08:00 | 429.84834230917807 |
| 2026-04-12T22:12:20+08:00 | 440.0308132797055 |
| 2026-04-13T08:43:54+08:00 | 442.10991433181084 |
| 2026-04-13T08:44:03+08:00 | 454.0052946122208 |
| 2026-04-13T08:44:58+08:00 | 454.0052946122208 |
| 2026-04-13T08:45:12+08:00 | 543.295634785375 |
| 2026-04-13T09:15:29+08:00 | 547.2141477492218 |
| 2026-04-13T09:15:52+08:00 | 590.3981866521235 |
| 2026-04-13T09:17:50+08:00 | 595.8518644761061 |
| 2026-04-13T09:18:50+08:00 | 609.6080623537165 |
| 2026-04-13T10:04:07+08:00 | 615.0658077124094 |
| 2026-04-13T10:05:24+08:00 | 700.806712568455 |
| 2026-04-13T11:14:23+08:00 | 702.1780853046106 |
| 2026-04-13T11:45:45+08:00 | 784.6649623923466 |
| 2026-04-13T17:32:04+08:00 | 800.5715227122957 |
| 2026-04-13T17:33:19+08:00 | 814.9 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|
| 時間 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|
以實際認購倍數 1102.05x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.482, 乙組 α=0.582) 為基準，對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數
| 申購手數 | 認購金額(HKD) | 實際期望中籤 | 預測期望中籤 | 偏差 |
|---|
思格新能中籤預測矩陣行為申購檔位，列為不同認購倍數，數值為期望中籤手數，綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手；非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。
機制B
《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%，不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%（因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者，基石投資者除外）。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益，自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。
α 為發行人分配偏好係數，描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。
本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致：中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑，與其他網站可能使用的不同定義（如「申購人數中籤比例」）有本質區別。
期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數
例：某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本頁展示 思格新能（06656）的中籤預測：基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導，公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數；其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準，再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準；隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權；臨近截止（進度約九成後）默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配，估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數，並結合分配手法係數 α（人均分配至比例分配）給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α，覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測，查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源：港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告；孖展數據（孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細）來自捷利交易寶（TradeGo），倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商，捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新；中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。
