孖展動態 孖展倍數11212.1x 孖展資金4206.2億 捷利預測倍數14463.61x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 2818.7億
2 老虎国际老虎 460.8億
3 辉立证券辉立 398.0億
4 华泰国际华泰 168.2億
5 华盛证券华盛 83.5億
6 盈立证券盈立 60.7億
7 致富证券致富 55.4億
8 信诚证券信诚 50.0億
9 复星国际复星 43.2億
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2026-05-08T06:00:00+08:000
2026-05-08T10:26:02+08:000.34328358208955223
2026-05-08T10:26:16+08:000.9509594882729211
2026-05-08T10:26:29+08:002.0437100213219614
2026-05-08T10:49:18+08:002.0639658848614073
2026-05-08T10:49:47+08:002.11727078891258
2026-05-08T11:04:06+08:002.214818763326226
2026-05-08T11:04:35+08:003.816098081023454
2026-05-08T11:07:02+08:007.734008528784648
2026-05-08T11:31:29+08:007.848614072494669
2026-05-08T12:03:16+08:007.936034115138593
2026-05-08T12:03:20+08:008.044243070362473
2026-05-08T12:03:24+08:008.272121535181236
2026-05-08T12:05:10+08:0010.857409381663112
2026-05-08T13:39:15+08:0011.13086353944563
2026-05-08T13:39:17+08:0011.33315565031983
2026-05-08T13:39:23+08:0011.396055437100213
2026-05-08T13:39:57+08:0011.65591684434968
2026-05-08T13:40:03+08:0014.347814498933902
2026-05-08T13:40:12+08:0014.423507462686567
2026-05-08T14:25:36+08:0014.636727078891258
2026-05-08T14:25:50+08:0015.552238805970148
2026-05-08T14:25:57+08:0015.641524520255864
2026-05-08T14:26:19+08:0016.89418976545842
2026-05-08T14:26:46+08:0017.51492537313433
2026-05-08T14:31:39+08:0017.657515991471215
2026-05-08T14:34:05+08:0018.990138592750533
2026-05-08T15:06:03+08:0019.098081023454156
2026-05-08T15:06:40+08:0019.184434968017058
2026-05-08T15:06:43+08:0020.59968017057569
2026-05-08T15:06:52+08:0023.291577825159916
2026-05-08T15:59:58+08:0023.300639658848613
2026-05-08T16:00:06+08:0023.363539445628998
2026-05-08T16:02:44+08:0023.426172707889126
2026-05-08T16:08:30+08:0024.76732409381663
2026-05-08T16:08:51+08:0027.752398720682304
2026-05-08T16:40:48+08:0028.01679104477612
2026-05-08T17:00:36+08:0028.09328358208955
2026-05-08T17:31:15+08:0028.23400852878465
2026-05-08T17:31:23+08:0029.106076759061835
2026-05-08T17:31:55+08:0029.372601279317696
2026-05-08T17:32:14+08:0034.72974413646055
2026-05-08T17:32:27+08:0034.74493603411514
2026-05-08T18:08:59+08:0034.823294243070364
2026-05-08T18:09:11+08:0041.48640724946695
2026-05-08T18:09:16+08:0041.596481876332625
2026-05-08T18:09:21+08:0041.55303837953092
2026-05-08T18:09:59+08:0045.39099147121535
2026-05-08T18:10:49+08:0045.93443496801706
2026-05-08T20:35:26+08:0045.974680170575695
2026-05-08T20:35:34+08:0045.99440298507463
2026-05-08T20:35:39+08:0046.346481876332625
2026-05-08T20:35:49+08:0049.011727078891255
2026-05-08T20:35:54+08:0049.07089552238806
2026-05-08T20:35:59+08:0049.20842217484009
2026-05-08T20:36:08+08:0050.72761194029851
2026-05-08T22:12:06+08:0050.777452025586356
2026-05-08T22:12:11+08:0051.17404051172708
2026-05-08T22:12:21+08:0053.01305970149254
2026-05-08T22:12:26+08:0055.547707889125796
2026-05-08T22:12:36+08:0057.70655650319829
2026-05-09T10:08:44+08:0057.9704157782516
2026-05-09T10:08:59+08:0057.9704157782516
2026-05-09T10:09:05+08:0058.79317697228145
2026-05-09T10:09:17+08:0075.18443496801706
2026-05-09T10:09:22+08:0082.40485074626865
2026-05-09T10:09:31+08:0082.76865671641791
2026-05-09T10:09:36+08:0082.77425373134328
2026-05-09T10:09:51+08:0084.32009594882729
2026-05-09T10:09:57+08:0084.82036247334754
2026-05-09T10:10:03+08:0084.85874200426439
2026-05-09T10:10:07+08:0084.95015991471216
2026-05-09T10:10:24+08:0085.85634328358209
2026-05-09T13:30:07+08:0085.88566098081023
2026-05-09T13:30:14+08:0086.2161513859275
2026-05-09T13:30:19+08:0086.22734541577825
2026-05-09T13:30:24+08:0086.9317697228145
2026-05-09T13:30:45+08:0089.81023454157783
2026-05-09T13:30:50+08:0089.82649253731343
2026-05-09T13:30:55+08:0089.92830490405117
2026-05-09T13:31:01+08:0089.95255863539445
2026-05-09T13:31:06+08:0090.71588486140725
2026-05-09T13:31:22+08:0092.90138592750533
2026-05-09T13:31:26+08:0092.91044776119404
2026-05-09T13:31:31+08:0092.99466950959489
2026-05-09T13:31:36+08:0093.17777185501066
2026-05-09T13:31:50+08:0094.88352878464819
2026-05-09T15:16:29+08:0094.89339019189765
2026-05-09T15:16:34+08:0095.17963752665246
2026-05-09T15:16:38+08:0095.23587420042644
2026-05-09T15:16:43+08:0095.25346481876332
2026-05-09T15:16:52+08:0096.79930703624734
2026-05-09T15:16:57+08:0096.8001066098081
2026-05-09T15:17:01+08:0096.88006396588486
2026-05-09T15:17:06+08:0096.90591684434968
2026-05-09T15:17:10+08:0097.15911513859275
2026-05-09T15:17:23+08:0098.30517057569297
2026-05-09T16:55:09+08:0098.45788912579957
2026-05-09T16:55:14+08:0098.66871002132196
2026-05-09T16:55:23+08:0099.02318763326225
2026-05-09T16:55:29+08:0099.03118336886993
2026-05-09T16:55:43+08:00100.33715351812367
2026-05-09T16:55:47+08:00100.33795309168444
2026-05-09T17:09:43+08:00100.39019189765459
2026-05-09T17:09:48+08:00100.44856076759062
2026-05-09T17:09:52+08:00100.54957356076758
2026-05-09T17:10:08+08:00100.9227078891258
2026-05-09T18:05:14+08:00100.92110874200426
2026-05-09T18:05:18+08:00101.71215351812367
2026-05-09T18:05:23+08:00101.75506396588486
2026-05-09T18:05:27+08:00101.77372068230277
2026-05-09T18:05:43+08:00102.75986140724947
2026-05-09T20:10:25+08:00102.79744136460555
2026-05-09T20:10:30+08:00102.90724946695096
2026-05-09T20:10:45+08:00103.57356076759062
2026-05-09T20:10:50+08:00103.59674840085287
2026-05-09T20:10:55+08:00103.80756929637526
2026-05-09T20:10:59+08:00103.83422174840085
2026-05-09T22:03:48+08:00103.8411513859275
2026-05-09T22:03:54+08:00103.89152452025586
2026-05-09T22:03:58+08:00104.26465884861408
2026-05-09T22:04:03+08:00104.35021321961621
2026-05-09T22:06:50+08:00105.01652452025586
2026-05-10T09:31:05+08:00109.86727078891258
2026-05-10T09:31:10+08:00110.34701492537313
2026-05-10T09:31:52+08:00110.49360341151386
2026-05-10T09:31:57+08:00110.625
2026-05-10T09:32:01+08:00110.63619402985074
2026-05-10T09:33:23+08:00112.03837953091684
2026-05-10T09:33:51+08:00112.19696162046908
2026-05-10T12:31:38+08:00112.18310234541578
2026-05-10T12:31:42+08:00112.37873134328358
2026-05-10T12:31:47+08:00112.3478144989339
2026-05-10T12:33:04+08:00112.36540511727078
2026-05-10T12:33:09+08:00112.37579957356077
2026-05-10T12:33:13+08:00112.4069829424307
2026-05-10T12:34:58+08:00114.05943496801706
2026-05-10T12:35:02+08:00114.1660447761194
2026-05-10T12:35:06+08:00115.84514925373135
2026-05-10T12:36:19+08:00115.87286780383795
2026-05-10T12:36:23+08:00116.40058635394456
2026-05-10T12:36:28+08:00116.42670575692964
2026-05-10T12:37:03+08:00116.84994669509595
2026-05-10T12:37:07+08:00116.87659914712154
2026-05-10T17:19:48+08:00116.9117803837953
2026-05-10T17:19:53+08:00116.91817697228144
2026-05-10T17:19:58+08:00116.92484008528784
2026-05-10T17:20:02+08:00116.932302771855
2026-05-10T17:20:07+08:00116.94962686567165
2026-05-10T17:20:47+08:00116.98001066098081
2026-05-10T17:20:52+08:00117.02558635394456
2026-05-10T17:20:57+08:00117.92537313432835
2026-05-10T17:21:01+08:00118.10287846481876
2026-05-10T17:22:03+08:00119.75533049040511
2026-05-10T17:22:07+08:00120.55490405117271
2026-05-10T17:22:12+08:00121.22121535181236
2026-05-10T17:22:17+08:00122.07409381663113
2026-05-10T17:22:21+08:00122.84701492537313
2026-05-10T17:24:01+08:00122.93630063965885
2026-05-10T17:24:07+08:00123.06982942430703
2026-05-10T17:24:12+08:00123.27372068230277
2026-05-10T17:24:17+08:00123.35101279317698
2026-05-10T17:24:21+08:00124.13139658848614
2026-05-10T17:25:06+08:00124.40431769722815
2026-05-10T19:03:51+08:00124.40804904051173
2026-05-10T19:04:12+08:00124.4160447761194
2026-05-10T19:04:16+08:00124.4251066098081
2026-05-10T19:05:31+08:00124.5434434968017
2026-05-10T19:05:35+08:00125.08288912579957
2026-05-10T19:06:02+08:00125.13619402985074
2026-05-10T19:06:14+08:00126.30890191897655
2026-05-10T19:06:45+08:00126.3459488272921
2026-05-10T19:06:50+08:00126.43763326226012
2026-05-10T22:52:01+08:00126.6202025586354
2026-05-10T22:52:26+08:00127.05277185501066
2026-05-10T22:52:33+08:00127.15618336886993
2026-05-10T22:53:28+08:00127.19696162046908
2026-05-10T22:53:32+08:00127.21641791044776
2026-05-10T22:54:26+08:00127.85607675906184
2026-05-10T22:54:31+08:00128.65565031982942
2026-05-10T22:54:35+08:00129.61513859275053
2026-05-11T08:34:19+08:00129.59754797441366
2026-05-11T08:34:36+08:00130.05916844349682
2026-05-11T08:34:46+08:00130.05916844349682
2026-05-11T08:34:51+08:00141.14658848614073
2026-05-11T09:04:34+08:00143.01226012793177
2026-05-11T09:04:41+08:00144.06849680170575
2026-05-11T09:05:01+08:00144.3030383795309
2026-05-11T09:05:22+08:00144.59994669509595
2026-05-11T09:05:30+08:00149.45069296375266
2026-05-11T09:05:59+08:00151.7198827292111
2026-05-11T09:45:42+08:00151.7867803837953
2026-05-11T10:09:58+08:00153.4757462686567
2026-05-11T10:10:04+08:00153.68123667377398
2026-05-11T10:10:12+08:00156.02398720682302
2026-05-11T10:10:41+08:00171.29584221748402
2026-05-11T10:31:23+08:00172.59141791044777
2026-05-11T11:02:48+08:00172.94882729211088
2026-05-11T11:03:21+08:00176.1292643923241
2026-05-11T11:16:34+08:00186.41711087420043
2026-05-11T11:16:40+08:00187.74973347547976
2026-05-11T11:31:07+08:00188.26945628997868
2026-05-11T12:16:16+08:00188.42750533049042
2026-05-11T12:16:20+08:00193.38033049040513
2026-05-11T12:16:28+08:00201.66924307036248
2026-05-11T13:39:39+08:00202.08608742004265
2026-05-11T13:39:45+08:00202.21508528784648
2026-05-11T13:39:51+08:00203.85101279317698
2026-05-11T13:40:15+08:00212.03331556503198
2026-05-11T13:40:22+08:00212.06929637526653
2026-05-11T13:40:28+08:00213.6684434968017
2026-05-11T14:00:29+08:00219.29211087420043
2026-05-11T14:00:52+08:00231.28571428571428
2026-05-11T14:01:46+08:00234.25613006396588
2026-05-11T14:02:31+08:00234.284381663113
2026-05-11T14:03:28+08:00236.37953091684435
2026-05-11T14:05:20+08:00243.1492537313433
2026-05-11T15:07:02+08:00243.19349680170575
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2026-05-11T15:07:35+08:00254.10714285714286
2026-05-11T16:09:35+08:00254.42190831556502
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捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
+4.6%
→
參與人數
40,786
→
人均手數
87.2
→
認購倍數
289x
289x = 40,786 × 87.2 ÷ 12,300 機械人 孖展加權 100% → 14463.6x
1x26656.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.45
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.55
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 14855.4x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.448, 乙組 α=0.548) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌翼菲科技中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手;非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

18C特專科技

《主板規則》第18C章,爲特專科技公司設立。機制A及機制B不適用。初訂分配份額爲5%,回補門檻:10倍至不足50倍→10%,50倍或以上→20%。根據第18C.08條,發售股份總數中至少50%須由配售部分的獨立定價投資者認購。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 翼菲科技(06871)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α,覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測,查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析