孖展動態 孖展倍數280.79x 孖展資金1655.0億 捷利預測倍數376.27x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 876.7億
2 辉立证券辉立 455.0億
3 老虎国际老虎 123.9億
4 华泰国际华泰 82.7億
5 致富证券致富 27.7億
6 复星国际复星 18.9億
7 盈立证券盈立 18.1億
8 华盛证券华盛 17.9億
9 熊猫证券熊猫 11.7億
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2026-06-29T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-29T10:10:44+08:000.018358274797244563
2026-06-29T10:10:55+08:000.03680138450575181
2026-06-29T10:11:02+08:000.042994333027927656
2026-06-29T11:01:34+08:000.04945875326614409
2026-06-29T11:04:40+08:000.30591469001323424
2026-06-29T11:05:48+08:000.35501713665207507
2026-06-29T11:07:27+08:001.4426006990396687
2026-06-29T11:41:44+08:001.451084190165937
2026-06-29T12:15:02+08:001.458702365197326
2026-06-29T12:15:53+08:001.5228884590586718
2026-06-29T12:16:35+08:001.5522243713733075
2026-06-29T12:17:55+08:001.5553802300722794
2026-06-29T12:18:32+08:001.561946452204011
2026-06-29T12:19:13+08:002.059079032203332
2026-06-29T12:19:48+08:002.076046014455869
2026-06-29T13:41:24+08:002.078014184397163
2026-06-29T13:42:51+08:002.133564084291968
2026-06-29T13:43:30+08:002.1365502731684143
2026-06-29T13:44:09+08:002.161389935186128
2026-06-29T13:44:55+08:002.190081102175167
2026-06-29T13:45:34+08:003.1266585225151853
2026-06-29T13:46:08+08:003.1605924870202586
2026-06-29T14:01:52+08:003.1644100580270793
2026-06-29T14:05:07+08:003.180749261936272
2026-06-29T14:05:43+08:003.2213851844310972
2026-06-29T14:07:16+08:003.2894567172282736
2026-06-29T14:07:48+08:003.2921375004241744
2026-06-29T14:08:26+08:003.8316875360548375
2026-06-29T14:10:12+08:003.9164036784417524
2026-06-29T15:00:29+08:003.9204927211646137
2026-06-29T15:01:42+08:003.938935830873121
2026-06-29T15:04:28+08:003.9760765550239237
2026-06-29T15:05:52+08:004.055668668770572
2026-06-29T15:06:22+08:004.059384437883878
2026-06-29T15:07:09+08:004.941667515015779
2026-06-29T16:01:33+08:005.322236926940175
2026-06-29T16:02:13+08:005.373137873697784
2026-06-29T16:03:20+08:005.403322135125046
2026-06-29T16:04:44+08:005.4690352573891206
2026-06-29T16:09:20+08:005.507855712782924
2026-06-29T16:12:02+08:006.169568020631851
2026-06-29T16:12:31+08:006.188265635074146
2026-06-29T17:08:04+08:006.2204180664427025
2026-06-29T17:08:55+08:006.331059757711493
2026-06-29T17:10:12+08:006.921934914656079
2026-06-29T17:10:44+08:006.927211646136618
2026-06-29T17:11:29+08:006.94414469442465
2026-06-29T17:12:26+08:007.951983440225321
2026-06-29T17:59:54+08:008.036818351488005
2026-06-29T18:00:43+08:009.020903322135124
2026-06-29T18:02:54+08:009.056211612202654
2026-06-29T18:04:28+08:009.091384166412162
2026-06-29T18:05:21+08:009.114747700973904
2026-06-29T18:06:27+08:009.125046659201194
2026-06-29T18:08:09+08:009.150938274118566
2026-06-29T18:08:40+08:009.571719433981473
2026-06-29T18:09:32+08:009.787318877464454
2026-06-29T20:27:48+08:009.811191421493772
2026-06-29T20:29:08+08:009.854219688486205
2026-06-29T20:29:53+08:009.872968203875258
2026-06-29T20:30:50+08:009.913621093352337
2026-06-29T20:37:47+08:0010.017102718110557
2026-06-29T20:41:50+08:0010.955376836675828
2026-06-29T21:09:31+08:0010.964335403305169
2026-06-29T22:06:58+08:0010.991499541891478
2026-06-29T22:08:01+08:0011.054260409243613
2026-06-29T22:09:04+08:0011.07445111812413
2026-06-29T22:10:10+08:0011.944857307679257
2026-06-30T09:05:47+08:0011.953900709219859
2026-06-30T09:05:50+08:0011.970138111235535
2026-06-30T09:05:54+08:0011.972598323662153
2026-06-30T09:08:34+08:0012.28160100444535
2026-06-30T09:10:18+08:0012.32622416776952
2026-06-30T09:10:22+08:0012.656282873528115
2026-06-30T09:10:25+08:0012.681970884658455
2026-06-30T09:14:13+08:0014.409209677966677
2026-06-30T09:14:19+08:0014.441107604601445
2026-06-30T09:14:22+08:0014.878855746716889
2026-06-30T09:16:07+08:0014.97344667277478
2026-06-30T09:17:52+08:0014.97344667277478
2026-06-30T10:21:38+08:0015.092215548542537
2026-06-30T10:21:44+08:0015.120940649496081
2026-06-30T10:21:59+08:0015.12862669245648
2026-06-30T10:22:11+08:0015.147544877668057
2026-06-30T10:22:17+08:0015.17752553530829
2026-06-30T10:22:29+08:0015.175964572941057
2026-06-30T10:22:35+08:0015.713817910346465
2026-06-30T11:11:42+08:0015.741015982897283
2026-06-30T11:11:54+08:0015.755896026332756
2026-06-30T11:12:06+08:0015.81999728528284
2026-06-30T11:12:20+08:0015.832756455936748
2026-06-30T11:12:32+08:0015.84147748481455
2026-06-30T11:12:39+08:0015.948369473005531
2026-06-30T12:14:03+08:0015.974770097390477
2026-06-30T12:18:48+08:0016.03035393124979
2026-06-30T12:19:49+08:0016.03887135634056
2026-06-30T12:21:37+08:0016.049526621195156
2026-06-30T12:24:02+08:0016.064457565577385
2026-06-30T12:27:04+08:0016.286725033085617
2026-06-30T14:02:59+08:0016.2782585089416
2026-06-30T14:03:02+08:0016.28087142420849
2026-06-30T14:08:38+08:0016.28748854728698
2026-06-30T14:08:40+08:0016.311157487529268
2026-06-30T14:13:04+08:0016.341528385761308
2026-06-30T14:13:07+08:0016.340781838542195
2026-06-30T14:15:33+08:0016.337422376056196
2026-06-30T14:15:49+08:0016.342868777359257
2026-06-30T14:17:08+08:0016.361159184227493
2026-06-30T14:17:10+08:0016.36041263700838
2026-06-30T14:20:30+08:0016.794767382673317
2026-06-30T14:20:33+08:0017.230818826563507
2026-06-30T14:24:21+08:0017.26475279106858
2026-06-30T14:27:10+08:0018.139163188435305
2026-06-30T15:03:59+08:0018.172113067969732
2026-06-30T15:06:12+08:0018.228986392480234
2026-06-30T15:07:15+08:0018.231938647392173
2026-06-30T15:08:45+08:0018.25050052597645
2026-06-30T15:10:35+08:0018.503308561539246
2026-06-30T15:17:08+08:0018.51491397739998
2026-06-30T16:28:39+08:0018.75973056432183
2026-06-30T16:32:37+08:0018.51878244935356
2026-06-30T16:35:21+08:0018.524788761070955
2026-06-30T16:37:18+08:0018.628660626420984
2026-06-30T16:40:14+08:0018.644914995418915
2026-06-30T16:41:24+08:0018.631341409616887
2026-06-30T17:06:32+08:0018.660830024771794
2026-06-30T17:08:49+08:0018.858631103871865
2026-06-30T17:11:39+08:0018.94796226543147
2026-06-30T17:13:06+08:0018.96587939869015
2026-06-30T17:14:30+08:0019.041653941429978
2026-06-30T17:17:32+08:0019.577810580610134
2026-06-30T17:49:03+08:0021.308442770368863
2026-06-30T18:01:45+08:0021.389273473819948
2026-06-30T18:11:49+08:0021.426261495130476
2026-06-30T18:16:58+08:0021.432488377617158
2026-06-30T18:19:46+08:0021.445196647324305
2026-06-30T18:20:31+08:0021.43298042010248
2026-06-30T18:24:08+08:0021.452679086497675
2026-06-30T18:25:32+08:0021.776748447521125
2026-06-30T18:27:01+08:0021.917574400217177
2026-06-30T20:08:15+08:0021.929451287793952
2026-06-30T20:11:09+08:0021.95403644507788
2026-06-30T20:13:50+08:0021.96514981845329
2026-06-30T20:14:42+08:0022.007448505208863
2026-06-30T20:16:43+08:0022.0936238080695
2026-06-30T20:19:03+08:0022.463504021174796
2026-06-30T22:00:02+08:0022.468136007329736
2026-06-30T22:05:02+08:0022.48293121585395
2026-06-30T22:06:31+08:0022.519766534324205
2026-06-30T22:08:07+08:0022.593403237300215
2026-06-30T22:10:33+08:0023.266992432725914
2026-07-01T08:43:27+08:0023.267857748820795
2026-07-01T08:43:30+08:0023.556008008415624
2026-07-01T08:51:47+08:0023.56354134853575
2026-07-01T08:51:51+08:0023.595269605347994
2026-07-01T08:57:33+08:0025.61264379517459
2026-07-01T09:01:14+08:0025.61264379517459
2026-07-01T09:06:01+08:0025.725168821473414
2026-07-01T09:07:44+08:0025.72930876514303
2026-07-01T09:10:14+08:0025.78448539142828
2026-07-01T09:12:55+08:0025.766653093080865
2026-07-01T09:14:18+08:0026.060181886049747
2026-07-01T09:18:08+08:0026.144185415182054
2026-07-01T09:20:11+08:0026.279921273202348
2026-07-01T09:20:46+08:0026.691048220163562
2026-07-01T10:17:55+08:0026.693219993891887
2026-07-01T10:21:53+08:0026.802249821846686
2026-07-01T10:23:47+08:0026.81137805829855
2026-07-01T10:24:37+08:0026.840086192269844
2026-07-01T10:26:14+08:0027.33043197936815
2026-07-01T10:28:28+08:0027.344582442566765
2026-07-01T11:08:45+08:0027.344446706708744
2026-07-01T11:10:13+08:0027.333146696528555
2026-07-01T11:11:54+08:0027.3347755268248
2026-07-01T11:13:09+08:0027.354338457361973
2026-07-01T11:16:30+08:0027.35959822186026
2026-07-01T11:19:58+08:0027.807526553327225
2026-07-01T12:13:27+08:0027.804794869184565
2026-07-01T12:15:17+08:0027.813719501849402
2026-07-01T12:16:14+08:0027.826597441379075
2026-07-01T12:17:47+08:0027.82807356883505
2026-07-01T12:20:12+08:0027.84420916895721
2026-07-01T12:21:30+08:0028.870711595235672
2026-07-01T14:09:57+08:0028.87271369914147
2026-07-01T14:09:59+08:0028.876836675828837
2026-07-01T14:16:33+08:0028.9010146255387
2026-07-01T14:16:36+08:0028.927296481047883
2026-07-01T14:18:18+08:0029.65008992500594
2026-07-01T14:18:20+08:0030.303318741728596
2026-07-01T14:21:30+08:0030.310258237469885
2026-07-01T14:21:33+08:0030.32279683735451
2026-07-01T14:22:19+08:0030.337710814754487
2026-07-01T14:22:22+08:0030.350266381621363
2026-07-01T14:24:45+08:0030.35825783026231
2026-07-01T14:24:47+08:0030.378160100444536
2026-07-01T14:27:51+08:0030.59591435067359
2026-07-01T14:33:38+08:0030.663782279683737
2026-07-01T15:09:25+08:0030.666446095897385
2026-07-01T15:12:41+08:0030.689283654009298
2026-07-01T15:14:20+08:0030.7036886219417
2026-07-01T15:15:51+08:0030.769435678170282
2026-07-01T15:17:56+08:0030.79237503817571
2026-07-01T15:19:41+08:0031.25218025721945
2026-07-01T16:15:18+08:0031.255505785740947
2026-07-01T16:17:46+08:0031.589925005938444
2026-07-01T16:19:08+08:0031.59389527978554
2026-07-01T16:20:22+08:0031.605161356001222
2026-07-01T16:22:19+08:0032.33643829108555
2026-07-01T16:24:03+08:0032.356425396179034
2026-07-01T17:04:14+08:0032.35878380671214
2026-07-01T17:06:51+08:0032.415623197258135
2026-07-01T17:08:20+08:0032.43866435915708
2026-07-01T17:09:52+08:0032.46871288472632
2026-07-01T17:10:47+08:0032.957361973599376
2026-07-01T17:12:31+08:0032.97387084733109
2026-07-01T18:01:56+08:0032.976670399402764
2026-07-01T18:04:58+08:0032.98552716413859
2026-07-01T18:07:09+08:0032.99570735349011
2026-07-01T18:07:56+08:0033.11313583765991
2026-07-01T18:09:33+08:0034.17696562489396
2026-07-01T18:10:43+08:0034.21699073602769
2026-07-01T18:12:33+08:0034.61121856866538
2026-07-01T20:54:51+08:0034.675964572941055
2026-07-01T20:56:48+08:0034.712765957446805
2026-07-01T20:57:54+08:0035.15151515151515
2026-07-01T20:59:26+08:0035.14888526926601
2026-07-01T21:01:43+08:0035.995537683667585
2026-07-01T21:03:46+08:0036.126387050799146
2026-07-01T22:05:57+08:0036.176778988089175
2026-07-01T22:08:05+08:0036.24656418609386
2026-07-01T22:09:42+08:0036.098561199904985
2026-07-01T22:14:35+08:0036.918066442702504
2026-07-02T08:42:34+08:0036.9685432149038
2026-07-02T08:42:37+08:0037.535885167464116
2026-07-02T08:46:14+08:0037.60568733245105
2026-07-02T08:46:17+08:0037.803047270012556
2026-07-02T08:52:34+08:0042.35359191014286
2026-07-02T08:59:19+08:0042.35359191014286
2026-07-02T09:00:58+08:0042.45539380365808
2026-07-02T09:12:44+08:0042.48525569242255
2026-07-02T09:18:45+08:0042.52171773728325
2026-07-02T09:20:49+08:0042.55678848959924
2026-07-02T09:27:24+08:0042.71559944348298
2026-07-02T09:29:18+08:0043.00018663680478
2026-07-02T09:33:26+08:0044.108130577895416
2026-07-02T09:48:19+08:0045.137262886423024
2026-07-02T10:14:09+08:0045.56213308900879
2026-07-02T10:17:30+08:0045.60083477552683
2026-07-02T10:19:39+08:0045.600987478367095
2026-07-02T10:21:40+08:0045.634802673996404
2026-07-02T10:25:56+08:0047.66405375139978
2026-07-02T11:10:25+08:0047.76607621568428
2026-07-02T11:14:23+08:0048.11880280973226
2026-07-02T11:15:29+08:0051.13553225423326
2026-07-02T11:17:25+08:0051.141691268790936
2026-07-02T11:19:04+08:0051.176558417319896
2026-07-02T11:54:32+08:0051.26139332858258
2026-07-02T12:11:19+08:0051.26573687603923
2026-07-02T12:17:15+08:0051.385897044351694
2026-07-02T12:19:00+08:0051.40810682412026
2026-07-02T12:20:08+08:0051.47680613526078
2026-07-02T12:21:34+08:0053.57222844344905
2026-07-02T12:24:13+08:0053.63385252299026
2026-07-02T13:43:23+08:0053.83066951711969
2026-07-02T14:08:59+08:0053.833265465404324
2026-07-02T14:09:01+08:0053.83460585700227
2026-07-02T14:13:59+08:0054.01163934982524
2026-07-02T14:14:01+08:0054.51448980284366
2026-07-02T14:16:54+08:0054.53184702568801
2026-07-02T14:16:56+08:0054.5411109979979
2026-07-02T14:18:04+08:0054.611065865825104
2026-07-02T14:18:07+08:0054.67297838406461
2026-07-02T14:20:54+08:0054.76095218704401
2026-07-02T14:20:57+08:0057.29581933557297
2026-07-02T14:20:59+08:0057.346092503987244
2026-07-02T14:21:02+08:0058.993586480708544
2026-07-02T14:33:47+08:0060.083307882859955
2026-07-02T15:00:53+08:0060.09204587872001
2026-07-02T15:03:32+08:0060.16636126098612
2026-07-02T15:07:01+08:0060.42878957548611
2026-07-02T15:10:05+08:0060.44495910957277
2026-07-02T15:11:26+08:0060.48608707455292
2026-07-02T15:13:38+08:0062.75796599816756
2026-07-02T16:05:01+08:0063.57490922664495
2026-07-02T16:07:54+08:0064.34205436221114
2026-07-02T16:09:08+08:0064.37868607689437
2026-07-02T16:11:00+08:0064.50641351929146
2026-07-02T16:12:11+08:0066.85464386304253
2026-07-02T16:14:52+08:0066.95267908649768
2026-07-02T17:04:52+08:0066.97008721028878
2026-07-02T17:06:33+08:0067.06815636770844
2026-07-02T17:09:07+08:0067.95222097797685
2026-07-02T17:10:13+08:0068.00351216532627
2026-07-02T17:11:55+08:0068.12167022973294
2026-07-02T17:14:13+08:0070.58697275102651
2026-07-02T17:15:21+08:0070.91104211204996
2026-07-02T17:52:14+08:0081.76991075367336
2026-07-02T18:04:12+08:0082.90871763548135
2026-07-02T18:16:54+08:0083.60058027079303
2026-07-02T18:18:45+08:0083.6879262954291
2026-07-02T18:20:16+08:0083.73170110964064
2026-07-02T18:20:58+08:0084.03087990769961
2026-07-02T18:22:24+08:0084.15675794903119
2026-07-02T18:23:46+08:0087.62650581967492
2026-07-02T18:26:37+08:0096.44933659099392
2026-07-02T20:41:06+08:0096.48349112626828
2026-07-02T20:44:10+08:0096.75630323390682
2026-07-02T20:46:08+08:0096.95980521904374
2026-07-02T20:47:56+08:0097.03837931385523
2026-07-02T20:49:17+08:0097.91004106009706
2026-07-02T20:51:42+08:00102.86439987783773
2026-07-02T21:50:31+08:00103.14477925956089
2026-07-02T22:06:20+08:00103.5625572635651
2026-07-02T22:08:21+08:00103.73348264277716
2026-07-02T22:09:29+08:00105.69966744714785
2026-07-02T22:11:43+08:00114.23914961484951
2026-07-03T08:39:21+08:00115.74685262479215
2026-07-03T08:39:23+08:00119.14676439648444
2026-07-03T08:42:23+08:00119.3124300111982
2026-07-03T08:42:25+08:00119.82593572907123
2026-07-03T08:46:34+08:00119.82593572907123
2026-07-03T08:48:46+08:00158.27481421154434
2026-07-03T09:01:14+08:00159.90364450778785
2026-07-03T09:07:27+08:00160.43313312294276
2026-07-03T09:08:29+08:00160.51338694899727
2026-07-03T09:10:19+08:00162.2181275238386
2026-07-03T09:12:27+08:00164.50566697207233
2026-07-03T09:14:53+08:00172.29690522243715
2026-07-03T09:16:27+08:00180.79405476941872
2026-07-03T10:16:54+08:00184.19347449862568
2026-07-03T10:20:48+08:00221.71765244833554
2026-07-03T11:13:46+08:00222.19013200312193
2026-07-03T11:21:43+08:00280.79
捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
-0.2%
→
參與人數
27,660
→
人均手數
112.1
→
認購倍數
31x
31x = 27,660 × 112.1 ÷ 99,692 孖展加權 100% → 376.3x
1x1696.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.56
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.67
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 413.63x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.565, 乙組 α=0.665) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌MOMENTA-W中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手;非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

機制B

《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%,不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%(因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者,基石投資者除外)。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益,自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 MOMENTA-W(06880)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α,覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測,查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析