京东工业 07618中籤預測
京东工业（07618）中籤預測
| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
62.2億 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
48.0億 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
19.9億 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
8.3億 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
3.5億 |
| 6 |  长桥 |
3.5億 |
| 7 |  盈立 |
2.9億 |
| 8 | 卓锐证券 | 2.1億 |
| 9 |  信诚 |
2.0億 |
| 11 |  Funderstone |
4105萬 |
| 12 |  盈宝 |
1134萬 |
| 13 |  艾德 |
1015萬 |
| 14 |  TradeGo |
807萬 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-03T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-12-03T10:09:44+08:00 | 0.012615309426354695 |
| 2025-12-03T10:10:11+08:00 | 0.5582198057303439 |
| 2025-12-03T10:12:38+08:00 | 0.5599303561610361 |
| 2025-12-03T10:12:59+08:00 | 0.6240759973119921 |
| 2025-12-03T11:05:36+08:00 | 0.6320483841407538 |
| 2025-12-03T11:06:15+08:00 | 0.6570651841896268 |
| 2025-12-03T11:06:38+08:00 | 0.9594660639012768 |
| 2025-12-03T11:06:55+08:00 | 1.1201967132995296 |
| 2025-12-03T11:50:16+08:00 | 1.181287800109964 |
| 2025-12-03T12:06:14+08:00 | 1.184525627710917 |
| 2025-12-03T12:06:20+08:00 | 1.3598570468568636 |
| 2025-12-03T12:06:36+08:00 | 1.8455311869998168 |
| 2025-12-03T12:07:03+08:00 | 1.9092186449996946 |
| 2025-12-03T13:49:27+08:00 | 1.919420856497037 |
| 2025-12-03T13:49:38+08:00 | 1.932921986682143 |
| 2025-12-03T13:49:48+08:00 | 1.9535096829372594 |
| 2025-12-03T13:50:30+08:00 | 2.1490011607306494 |
| 2025-12-03T14:07:24+08:00 | 2.1512615309426355 |
| 2025-12-03T14:07:40+08:00 | 2.179760522939703 |
| 2025-12-03T14:07:56+08:00 | 2.1989125786547743 |
| 2025-12-03T14:08:15+08:00 | 2.366913067383469 |
| 2025-12-03T14:09:01+08:00 | 2.4584275154254995 |
| 2025-12-03T15:08:23+08:00 | 2.4972814466369355 |
| 2025-12-03T15:09:05+08:00 | 2.5145091331174783 |
| 2025-12-03T15:09:42+08:00 | 2.52037387745128 |
| 2025-12-03T15:09:55+08:00 | 2.5936831816238013 |
| 2025-12-03T15:21:07+08:00 | 2.746410898649887 |
| 2025-12-03T16:00:02+08:00 | 2.7516952776589894 |
| 2025-12-03T16:05:36+08:00 | 2.7757040747754904 |
| 2025-12-03T16:05:52+08:00 | 2.797941230374488 |
| 2025-12-03T16:06:18+08:00 | 2.9903781538273564 |
| 2025-12-03T17:01:21+08:00 | 3.08506933838353 |
| 2025-12-03T17:01:31+08:00 | 3.0875740729427577 |
| 2025-12-03T17:07:50+08:00 | 3.09356099945018 |
| 2025-12-03T17:07:57+08:00 | 3.2320239477060295 |
| 2025-12-03T17:08:13+08:00 | 3.3847516647321156 |
| 2025-12-03T17:29:53+08:00 | 4.301117966888631 |
| 2025-12-03T18:01:20+08:00 | 4.303347791557211 |
| 2025-12-03T18:02:17+08:00 | 4.510874213452257 |
| 2025-12-03T18:03:21+08:00 | 4.523489522878612 |
| 2025-12-03T18:03:27+08:00 | 4.593469362819965 |
| 2025-12-03T18:20:57+08:00 | 4.801179057975442 |
| 2025-12-03T20:00:50+08:00 | 4.805333251878551 |
| 2025-12-03T20:01:14+08:00 | 4.857199584580609 |
| 2025-12-03T20:01:20+08:00 | 4.861567597287555 |
| 2025-12-03T20:01:35+08:00 | 4.956258781843729 |
| 2025-12-03T20:38:43+08:00 | 4.974097379192376 |
| 2025-12-03T20:38:49+08:00 | 4.987476327203861 |
| 2025-12-03T20:39:03+08:00 | 5.100494837803165 |
| 2025-12-03T22:02:51+08:00 | 5.119677439061641 |
| 2025-12-03T22:03:00+08:00 | 5.136508033477916 |
| 2025-12-03T22:03:16+08:00 | 5.218981000672002 |
| 2025-12-03T22:03:44+08:00 | 5.692864561060541 |
| 2025-12-03T22:03:49+08:00 | 5.697293664854298 |
| 2025-12-03T22:06:12+08:00 | 5.865294153582992 |
| 2025-12-04T08:37:07+08:00 | 5.979992669069583 |
| 2025-12-04T08:37:14+08:00 | 6.544138310220539 |
| 2025-12-04T08:37:31+08:00 | 6.950394037509927 |
| 2025-12-04T08:38:32+08:00 | 6.9674689962734435 |
| 2025-12-04T08:38:35+08:00 | 6.994776712077708 |
| 2025-12-04T08:38:45+08:00 | 6.994776712077708 |
| 2025-12-04T09:10:12+08:00 | 7.0932249984727225 |
| 2025-12-04T09:10:20+08:00 | 7.000733093041725 |
| 2025-12-04T09:10:32+08:00 | 8.16757285112102 |
| 2025-12-04T09:10:51+08:00 | 8.136172032500458 |
| 2025-12-04T09:11:22+08:00 | 8.37054798704869 |
| 2025-12-04T10:04:18+08:00 | 8.492730160669558 |
| 2025-12-04T10:04:36+08:00 | 8.541419756857474 |
| 2025-12-04T10:04:47+08:00 | 8.58986498869815 |
| 2025-12-04T10:05:25+08:00 | 8.904484085771886 |
| 2025-12-04T11:02:39+08:00 | 8.908180096523918 |
| 2025-12-04T11:03:19+08:00 | 8.920001221821737 |
| 2025-12-04T11:03:41+08:00 | 8.933471806463437 |
| 2025-12-04T11:05:13+08:00 | 9.196163479748305 |
| 2025-12-04T12:05:16+08:00 | 9.21088643166962 |
| 2025-12-04T12:05:34+08:00 | 9.250076363858513 |
| 2025-12-04T12:05:47+08:00 | 9.265471317734743 |
| 2025-12-04T12:06:00+08:00 | 9.109689046368135 |
| 2025-12-04T13:56:51+08:00 | 9.127008369478894 |
| 2025-12-04T13:57:09+08:00 | 9.160180829616959 |
| 2025-12-04T13:57:14+08:00 | 9.193780927362697 |
| 2025-12-04T13:57:38+08:00 | 9.490072698393304 |
| 2025-12-04T13:57:47+08:00 | 9.494562893273871 |
| 2025-12-04T14:00:48+08:00 | 9.497311992180341 |
| 2025-12-04T14:01:36+08:00 | 10.132140020770969 |
| 2025-12-04T14:04:31+08:00 | 10.193689290732483 |
| 2025-12-04T14:04:44+08:00 | 10.174567780560816 |
| 2025-12-04T14:06:06+08:00 | 10.266204410776467 |
| 2025-12-04T15:18:00+08:00 | 10.291007392021504 |
| 2025-12-04T15:18:13+08:00 | 10.304447431119799 |
| 2025-12-04T15:18:39+08:00 | 10.354022848066467 |
| 2025-12-04T15:18:49+08:00 | 10.580059869265074 |
| 2025-12-04T16:11:35+08:00 | 10.58653552446698 |
| 2025-12-04T16:12:11+08:00 | 11.74039342659906 |
| 2025-12-04T16:12:42+08:00 | 13.038579021320789 |
| 2025-12-04T16:12:50+08:00 | 13.005314924552508 |
| 2025-12-04T16:49:12+08:00 | 13.31077035860468 |
| 2025-12-04T17:30:08+08:00 | 13.31645182967805 |
| 2025-12-04T17:30:37+08:00 | 14.02465025352801 |
| 2025-12-04T17:30:52+08:00 | 14.06393182234712 |
| 2025-12-04T17:31:07+08:00 | 15.829464231168673 |
| 2025-12-04T17:32:56+08:00 | 18.57856313763822 |
| 2025-12-04T18:04:19+08:00 | 18.57471439916916 |
| 2025-12-04T18:04:24+08:00 | 18.90842446087116 |
| 2025-12-04T18:04:29+08:00 | 19.563443093652637 |
| 2025-12-04T18:05:39+08:00 | 20.539495387622946 |
| 2025-12-04T18:08:17+08:00 | 21.129024375343636 |
| 2025-12-04T20:29:32+08:00 | 21.131345836642435 |
| 2025-12-04T20:29:42+08:00 | 21.195277658989554 |
| 2025-12-04T20:29:46+08:00 | 21.512187671818683 |
| 2025-12-04T20:30:02+08:00 | 22.13531675728511 |
| 2025-12-04T20:30:39+08:00 | 22.174903781538273 |
| 2025-12-04T20:30:44+08:00 | 22.637485490866883 |
| 2025-12-04T20:30:59+08:00 | 22.851304294703404 |
| 2025-12-04T21:50:30+08:00 | 22.925957602785754 |
| 2025-12-04T21:50:38+08:00 | 22.888081128963286 |
| 2025-12-04T21:50:45+08:00 | 23.618119616347975 |
| 2025-12-04T22:12:04+08:00 | 23.657340094080272 |
| 2025-12-04T22:12:10+08:00 | 23.64842079540595 |
| 2025-12-04T22:12:25+08:00 | 24.204349685380905 |
| 2025-12-05T08:59:35+08:00 | 24.212108253405827 |
| 2025-12-05T09:00:36+08:00 | 24.21305516525139 |
| 2025-12-05T09:00:47+08:00 | 24.231351945751115 |
| 2025-12-05T09:00:54+08:00 | 24.231351945751115 |
| 2025-12-05T09:01:11+08:00 | 24.24268434235445 |
| 2025-12-05T09:01:15+08:00 | 24.24925163418657 |
| 2025-12-05T09:01:25+08:00 | 24.253528010263302 |
| 2025-12-05T09:01:29+08:00 | 24.245341804630705 |
| 2025-12-05T09:01:34+08:00 | 24.244058891807686 |
| 2025-12-05T09:01:53+08:00 | 24.249434907447004 |
| 2025-12-05T09:02:09+08:00 | 24.79461176614332 |
| 2025-12-05T09:02:14+08:00 | 24.79543649581526 |
| 2025-12-05T09:02:26+08:00 | 25.50714765715682 |
| 2025-12-05T09:02:53+08:00 | 25.628474555562345 |
| 2025-12-05T09:03:11+08:00 | 25.64625206182418 |
| 2025-12-05T09:03:14+08:00 | 25.640142953143137 |
| 2025-12-05T09:04:07+08:00 | 26.21354389394587 |
| 2025-12-05T09:05:27+08:00 | 26.70838169711039 |
| 2025-12-05T10:10:22+08:00 | 27.16656484818865 |
| 2025-12-05T10:10:44+08:00 | 27.176278330991508 |
| 2025-12-05T10:10:57+08:00 | 27.208015150589528 |
| 2025-12-05T10:11:01+08:00 | 27.407080456961328 |
| 2025-12-05T10:11:07+08:00 | 27.30017105504307 |
| 2025-12-05T11:06:58+08:00 | 27.592888997495265 |
| 2025-12-05T11:07:04+08:00 | 27.64121204716232 |
| 2025-12-05T11:07:28+08:00 | 27.688832549331053 |
| 2025-12-05T11:07:35+08:00 | 28.030942635469486 |
| 2025-12-05T12:06:45+08:00 | 28.094446820208933 |
| 2025-12-05T12:06:47+08:00 | 28.085283157187366 |
| 2025-12-05T12:06:51+08:00 | 28.170321950027493 |
| 2025-12-05T12:06:54+08:00 | 28.414686297269228 |
| 2025-12-05T13:51:43+08:00 | 28.7201417313214 |
| 2025-12-05T13:51:48+08:00 | 28.784348463559166 |
| 2025-12-05T13:51:52+08:00 | 28.79326776223349 |
| 2025-12-05T13:51:54+08:00 | 28.849166106665038 |
| 2025-12-05T13:51:57+08:00 | 29.02938481275582 |
| 2025-12-05T14:00:29+08:00 | 29.078440955464597 |
| 2025-12-05T14:00:58+08:00 | 29.278147718247908 |
| 2025-12-05T14:07:19+08:00 | 29.284043008125114 |
| 2025-12-05T14:07:22+08:00 | 29.399016433502354 |
| 2025-12-05T14:07:24+08:00 | 29.69836275887348 |
| 2025-12-05T15:06:29+08:00 | 29.698729305394345 |
| 2025-12-05T15:06:32+08:00 | 29.710886431669618 |
| 2025-12-05T15:06:35+08:00 | 29.767945506750564 |
| 2025-12-05T15:06:38+08:00 | 30.140601136294215 |
| 2025-12-05T15:07:05+08:00 | 30.59878428737247 |
| 2025-12-05T16:17:49+08:00 | 30.726556295436495 |
| 2025-12-05T16:17:52+08:00 | 30.903720447186757 |
| 2025-12-05T17:06:13+08:00 | 30.975899566253283 |
| 2025-12-05T17:06:17+08:00 | 31.36077341315902 |
| 2025-12-05T18:00:33+08:00 | 42.3571690390372 |
| 2025-12-05T18:02:18+08:00 | 42.54930050705602 |
| 2025-12-05T18:08:18+08:00 | 42.55507361475961 |
| 2025-12-05T18:08:24+08:00 | 42.54896450607856 |
| 2025-12-05T20:34:48+08:00 | 42.55687580182052 |
| 2025-12-05T20:34:55+08:00 | 42.694330747143994 |
| 2025-12-05T20:35:23+08:00 | 42.683914716842814 |
| 2025-12-05T20:35:29+08:00 | 42.77860590139898 |
| 2025-12-05T21:58:50+08:00 | 42.792107031584095 |
| 2025-12-05T21:58:55+08:00 | 42.70047040136844 |
| 2025-12-05T22:07:33+08:00 | 42.830472234101045 |
| 2025-12-05T22:07:37+08:00 | 43.15425499419635 |
| 2025-12-06T08:19:07+08:00 | 43.171727045024134 |
| 2025-12-06T08:19:15+08:00 | 43.171727045024134 |
| 2025-12-06T08:19:29+08:00 | 43.307746349807566 |
| 2025-12-06T08:19:36+08:00 | 43.8056387073126 |
| 2025-12-06T09:49:27+08:00 | 43.82329403140082 |
| 2025-12-06T09:49:33+08:00 | 44.0035127374916 |
| 2025-12-06T11:42:07+08:00 | 44.01340949355489 |
| 2025-12-06T11:42:15+08:00 | 44.053118699981674 |
| 2025-12-06T11:42:27+08:00 | 44.09130062923819 |
| 2025-12-06T11:42:34+08:00 | 44.24097379192376 |
| 2025-12-06T13:27:18+08:00 | 44.24488362147962 |
| 2025-12-06T13:27:23+08:00 | 44.293756490927976 |
| 2025-12-06T13:27:28+08:00 | 44.305485979595574 |
| 2025-12-06T13:27:32+08:00 | 44.5193047834321 |
| 2025-12-06T14:27:10+08:00 | 44.50064145641151 |
| 2025-12-06T14:27:17+08:00 | 44.57395076058403 |
| 2025-12-06T17:13:46+08:00 | 44.57892968415908 |
| 2025-12-06T17:13:51+08:00 | 44.655293542672126 |
| 2025-12-06T17:13:56+08:00 | 44.6891074592217 |
| 2025-12-06T17:14:00+08:00 | 44.70438023092431 |
| 2025-12-06T17:14:05+08:00 | 44.7183700898039 |
| 2025-12-06T17:14:10+08:00 | 44.72142464414442 |
| 2025-12-06T19:00:00+08:00 | 44.721088643166965 |
| 2025-12-06T19:20:01+08:00 | 44.76345531187 |
| 2025-12-06T19:20:06+08:00 | 44.85814649642617 |
| 2025-12-06T21:35:10+08:00 | 44.49153888447675 |
| 2025-12-06T21:35:14+08:00 | 44.473211558433626 |
| 2025-12-06T21:35:19+08:00 | 44.44969149001161 |
| 2025-12-06T21:35:23+08:00 | 44.80707434785265 |
| 2025-12-07T10:25:50+08:00 | 44.80655507361476 |
| 2025-12-07T10:25:54+08:00 | 44.79952959863156 |
| 2025-12-07T10:25:58+08:00 | 44.830350051927425 |
| 2025-12-07T10:26:03+08:00 | 44.85051011057487 |
| 2025-12-07T10:26:07+08:00 | 44.8963895167695 |
| 2025-12-07T10:26:29+08:00 | 44.92693506017472 |
| 2025-12-07T10:26:33+08:00 | 45.23239049422689 |
| 2025-12-07T10:26:37+08:00 | 45.18046307043802 |
| 2025-12-07T10:26:40+08:00 | 45.95631987293054 |
| 2025-12-07T12:22:19+08:00 | 45.88130001832732 |
| 2025-12-07T12:22:24+08:00 | 45.95460932249985 |
| 2025-12-07T12:22:28+08:00 | 46.0239782515731 |
| 2025-12-07T12:22:32+08:00 | 46.29583358787953 |
| 2025-12-07T17:44:40+08:00 | 46.233520679332884 |
| 2025-12-07T17:44:44+08:00 | 46.093011179668885 |
| 2025-12-07T17:44:49+08:00 | 46.076974769381145 |
| 2025-12-07T17:44:53+08:00 | 46.09224754108376 |
| 2025-12-07T17:44:57+08:00 | 46.10211375160364 |
| 2025-12-07T17:45:01+08:00 | 46.273168794672856 |
| 2025-12-07T17:45:08+08:00 | 46.30117905797544 |
| 2025-12-07T17:45:13+08:00 | 46.33477915572118 |
| 2025-12-07T17:45:17+08:00 | 46.335267884415664 |
| 2025-12-07T17:45:21+08:00 | 46.43606817765288 |
| 2025-12-07T22:05:19+08:00 | 46.34357627222188 |
| 2025-12-07T22:05:23+08:00 | 46.28941902376443 |
| 2025-12-07T22:05:28+08:00 | 45.93924491416702 |
| 2025-12-07T22:05:32+08:00 | 45.793053943429655 |
| 2025-12-07T22:05:36+08:00 | 45.70016494593439 |
| 2025-12-07T22:05:50+08:00 | 45.608528315718736 |
| 2025-12-07T22:05:56+08:00 | 45.8987109780683 |
| 2025-12-07T22:06:01+08:00 | 45.61463742439978 |
| 2025-12-07T22:06:05+08:00 | 45.694055837253345 |
| 2025-12-07T22:06:09+08:00 | 44.646343698454395 |
| 2025-12-08T08:37:27+08:00 | 44.550125236727965 |
| 2025-12-08T08:37:29+08:00 | 44.258781843729 |
| 2025-12-08T08:37:37+08:00 | 45.447003482191946 |
| 2025-12-08T08:37:47+08:00 | 45.447003482191946 |
| 2025-12-08T09:17:30+08:00 | 45.141548048139775 |
| 2025-12-08T09:17:36+08:00 | 45.154590995173805 |
| 2025-12-08T09:17:42+08:00 | 46.44972203555501 |
| 2025-12-08T09:18:22+08:00 | 45.884232390494226 |
| 2025-12-08T10:19:54+08:00 | 46.53399718981001 |
| 2025-12-08T10:20:08+08:00 | 46.79 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|
| 時間 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|
以實際認購倍數 60.52x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.566, 乙組 α=0.666) 為基準，對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數
| 申購手數 | 認購金額(HKD) | 實際期望中籤 | 預測期望中籤 | 偏差 |
|---|
京东工业中籤預測矩陣行為申購檔位，列為不同認購倍數，數值為期望中籤手數，綠色背景表示穩中（≥1手）
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 為發行人分配偏好係數，描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。
本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致：中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑，與其他網站可能使用的不同定義（如「申購人數中籤比例」）有本質區別。
期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數
例：某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本頁展示 京东工业（07618）的中籤預測：基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導，公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數；其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準，再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準；隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權；臨近截止（進度約九成後）默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 356 隻 IPO 的 10897 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配，估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數，並結合分配手法係數 α（人均分配至比例分配）給出區間。
數據來源：港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告；孖展數據（孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細）來自捷利交易寶（TradeGo），倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商，捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新；中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。
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