孖展動態 孖展倍數2536.83x 孖展資金771.7億 捷利預測倍數3272.51x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 475.1億
2 辉立证券辉立 126.0億
3 老虎国际老虎 84.9億
4 华泰国际华泰 25.9億
5 致富证券致富 14.4億
6 华盛证券华盛 13.5億
7 盈立证券盈立 10.2億
8 复星国际复星 8.5億
9 熊猫证券熊猫 5.4億
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2026-06-29T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-29T10:11:27+08:000.06969099276791585
2026-06-29T11:01:27+08:000.15614727153188693
2026-06-29T11:04:43+08:000.36522024983563445
2026-06-29T11:05:37+08:000.43721236028928334
2026-06-29T11:07:14+08:002.7712031558185406
2026-06-29T11:41:50+08:002.8205128205128207
2026-06-29T12:15:06+08:002.848454963839579
2026-06-29T12:15:49+08:002.9694280078895465
2026-06-29T12:16:24+08:003.36620644312952
2026-06-29T12:17:40+08:003.563773833004602
2026-06-29T12:18:29+08:003.720249835634451
2026-06-29T12:19:02+08:005.462524654832347
2026-06-29T13:41:13+08:005.561801446416831
2026-06-29T13:42:48+08:005.925378040762656
2026-06-29T13:43:28+08:005.936883629191321
2026-06-29T13:43:57+08:006.206771860618015
2026-06-29T13:44:46+08:006.3208415516107825
2026-06-29T13:45:46+08:008.621959237343853
2026-06-29T14:01:40+08:008.728139381985535
2026-06-29T14:05:10+08:008.828731097961867
2026-06-29T14:05:50+08:008.993754109138724
2026-06-29T14:07:13+08:009.201840894148587
2026-06-29T14:07:59+08:009.207429322813939
2026-06-29T14:08:37+08:0011.870151216305063
2026-06-29T14:10:47+08:0012.157133464825773
2026-06-29T15:00:17+08:0012.280736357659434
2026-06-29T15:01:37+08:0012.388231426692965
2026-06-29T15:04:20+08:0013.844510190664037
2026-06-29T15:05:50+08:0014.438198553583169
2026-06-29T15:06:25+08:0014.450361604207759
2026-06-29T15:06:58+08:0015.863905325443787
2026-06-29T16:01:45+08:0017.48224852071006
2026-06-29T16:02:31+08:0018.238330046022355
2026-06-29T16:03:17+08:0018.44904667981591
2026-06-29T16:04:47+08:0020.342209072978303
2026-06-29T16:09:09+08:0020.382642998027613
2026-06-29T16:11:50+08:0021.59894806048652
2026-06-29T16:12:34+08:0021.93819855358317
2026-06-29T17:08:07+08:0022.300460223537147
2026-06-29T17:08:42+08:0023.06311637080868
2026-06-29T17:10:09+08:0023.576594345825114
2026-06-29T17:10:48+08:0023.6439842209073
2026-06-29T17:11:18+08:0023.95956607495069
2026-06-29T17:12:14+08:0029.219263642340565
2026-06-29T18:00:52+08:0032.8353057199211
2026-06-29T18:02:43+08:0033.23767258382643
2026-06-29T18:04:31+08:0035.36916502301118
2026-06-29T18:05:24+08:0035.40006574621959
2026-06-29T18:06:39+08:0035.55095332018409
2026-06-29T18:07:58+08:0035.61604207758054
2026-06-29T18:08:37+08:0038.9362261669954
2026-06-29T18:11:07+08:0041.12721893491124
2026-06-29T20:28:08+08:0042.16436554898093
2026-06-29T20:29:04+08:0042.455621301775146
2026-06-29T20:29:57+08:0042.61406969099277
2026-06-29T20:31:07+08:0042.841222879684416
2026-06-29T20:37:52+08:0044.15055884286654
2026-06-29T20:41:33+08:0049.1801446416831
2026-06-29T21:09:27+08:0049.248849441157134
2026-06-29T22:07:03+08:0049.349112426035504
2026-06-29T22:08:06+08:0050.990138067061146
2026-06-29T22:09:18+08:0051.532873109796185
2026-06-29T22:09:41+08:0055.247534516765285
2026-06-30T09:06:05+08:0055.2715318869165
2026-06-30T09:06:10+08:0055.30999342537804
2026-06-30T09:06:13+08:0055.370808678500985
2026-06-30T09:08:16+08:0057.58612754766601
2026-06-30T09:10:35+08:0057.86620644312952
2026-06-30T09:10:38+08:0059.64234056541749
2026-06-30T09:10:41+08:0060.41880341880342
2026-06-30T09:13:52+08:0069.49178172255095
2026-06-30T09:13:56+08:0069.9155161078238
2026-06-30T09:14:00+08:0071.887902695595
2026-06-30T09:15:56+08:0072.45069033530572
2026-06-30T09:17:47+08:0072.45069033530572
2026-06-30T10:22:50+08:0073.14102564102564
2026-06-30T10:22:56+08:0073.31558185404339
2026-06-30T10:23:08+08:0073.40335305719921
2026-06-30T10:23:16+08:0074.6706114398422
2026-06-30T10:23:22+08:0074.97994740302433
2026-06-30T10:23:46+08:0074.9250493096647
2026-06-30T10:23:51+08:0078.34385272846811
2026-06-30T11:12:52+08:0078.11604207758054
2026-06-30T11:12:59+08:0078.27580539119
2026-06-30T11:13:12+08:0078.67028270874425
2026-06-30T11:13:18+08:0078.90532544378698
2026-06-30T11:13:29+08:0078.95923734385273
2026-06-30T11:13:36+08:0084.28468113083498
2026-06-30T11:48:22+08:0085.27087442472057
2026-06-30T12:14:15+08:0085.52268244575937
2026-06-30T12:18:51+08:0086.74293228139382
2026-06-30T12:19:51+08:0086.89546351084813
2026-06-30T12:21:51+08:0087.33563445101906
2026-06-30T12:24:58+08:0087.34944115713347
2026-06-30T12:27:16+08:0091.29421433267588
2026-06-30T14:03:09+08:0091.33464825772518
2026-06-30T14:03:12+08:0091.38625904010519
2026-06-30T14:08:27+08:0091.38428665351742
2026-06-30T14:08:30+08:0091.40203813280736
2026-06-30T14:13:22+08:0091.77514792899409
2026-06-30T14:13:24+08:0092.97600262984878
2026-06-30T14:15:35+08:0093.0706771860618
2026-06-30T14:15:51+08:0093.05489809335963
2026-06-30T14:17:26+08:0093.54174884944116
2026-06-30T14:17:29+08:0093.93721236028928
2026-06-30T14:19:15+08:0098.57232084155162
2026-06-30T14:19:17+08:00103.24030243261012
2026-06-30T14:24:24+08:00103.47041420118343
2026-06-30T14:28:03+08:00110.21170282708744
2026-06-30T15:03:48+08:00110.29092702169625
2026-06-30T15:06:09+08:00111.5982905982906
2026-06-30T15:07:40+08:00111.62261669953978
2026-06-30T15:08:56+08:00111.48948060486522
2026-06-30T15:10:46+08:00115.30276134122288
2026-06-30T15:17:30+08:00115.4723865877712
2026-06-30T16:28:55+08:00118.89119000657462
2026-06-30T16:32:40+08:00121.35404339250493
2026-06-30T16:35:26+08:00121.51577909270218
2026-06-30T16:37:32+08:00121.52169625246549
2026-06-30T16:40:03+08:00121.75213675213675
2026-06-30T16:41:13+08:00127.63642340565417
2026-06-30T17:06:45+08:00128.1153846153846
2026-06-30T17:08:18+08:00128.42735042735043
2026-06-30T17:11:36+08:00129.88921761998685
2026-06-30T17:13:12+08:00129.93556870479946
2026-06-30T17:14:42+08:00130.39875082182775
2026-06-30T17:17:21+08:00134.54076265614728
2026-06-30T17:18:00+08:00140.129191321499
2026-06-30T18:03:07+08:00141.33070348454964
2026-06-30T18:12:09+08:00141.55621301775147
2026-06-30T18:17:30+08:00141.7094017094017
2026-06-30T18:19:56+08:00141.74523339907955
2026-06-30T18:20:35+08:00142.97961867192637
2026-06-30T18:24:27+08:00143.02991452991452
2026-06-30T18:25:14+08:00147.0733070348455
2026-06-30T18:27:06+08:00147.73076923076923
2026-06-30T20:08:36+08:00147.93293885601577
2026-06-30T20:11:19+08:00148.10716633793558
2026-06-30T20:13:29+08:00148.20710059171597
2026-06-30T20:15:01+08:00148.32084155161078
2026-06-30T20:16:48+08:00149.35996055226823
2026-06-30T20:18:43+08:00155.17850098619328
2026-06-30T21:59:43+08:00155.21071663379357
2026-06-30T22:05:11+08:00155.31788297172912
2026-06-30T22:06:50+08:00155.97435897435898
2026-06-30T22:08:12+08:00157.90959894806048
2026-06-30T22:10:16+08:00164.18836291913215
2026-07-01T08:45:38+08:00164.52235371466142
2026-07-01T08:45:41+08:00171.09204470742932
2026-07-01T08:54:21+08:00171.2853385930309
2026-07-01T08:54:24+08:00171.46252465483235
2026-07-01T08:57:02+08:00188.19493754109138
2026-07-01T09:01:43+08:00188.19493754109138
2026-07-01T09:05:49+08:00190.87804076265616
2026-07-01T09:07:39+08:00190.90532544378698
2026-07-01T09:10:28+08:00191.29783037475346
2026-07-01T09:12:53+08:00191.91255752794214
2026-07-01T09:14:07+08:00196.4819197896121
2026-07-01T09:18:28+08:00197.5956607495069
2026-07-01T09:19:46+08:00200.22550953320183
2026-07-01T09:21:38+08:00201.98060486522024
2026-07-01T10:18:06+08:00202.6844181459566
2026-07-01T10:21:56+08:00203.3803418803419
2026-07-01T10:23:52+08:00203.41781722550954
2026-07-01T10:24:48+08:00203.59697567389875
2026-07-01T10:26:02+08:00209.02103879026956
2026-07-01T10:28:11+08:00209.1137409598948
2026-07-01T11:08:55+08:00209.5111768573307
2026-07-01T11:10:15+08:00210.63938198553583
2026-07-01T11:11:59+08:00210.75608152531228
2026-07-01T11:13:20+08:00210.84944115713347
2026-07-01T11:15:58+08:00211.05621301775147
2026-07-01T11:19:47+08:00215.36259040105193
2026-07-01T12:13:30+08:00216.6403681788297
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2026-07-01T12:16:30+08:00216.85798816568047
2026-07-01T12:17:58+08:00216.9023668639053
2026-07-01T12:19:48+08:00216.97961867192637
2026-07-01T12:21:48+08:00221.28599605522683
2026-07-01T14:10:16+08:00221.3241288625904
2026-07-01T14:10:19+08:00221.32182774490468
2026-07-01T14:16:06+08:00222.32708744247205
2026-07-01T14:16:09+08:00222.79717291255753
2026-07-01T14:17:49+08:00225.62426035502958
2026-07-01T14:17:52+08:00229.0759368836292
2026-07-01T14:21:39+08:00229.1196581196581
2026-07-01T14:21:42+08:00229.13313609467457
2026-07-01T14:22:38+08:00228.67357001972385
2026-07-01T14:22:40+08:00228.86949375410913
2026-07-01T14:24:53+08:00229.06081525312294
2026-07-01T14:24:56+08:00229.1009204470743
2026-07-01T14:28:40+08:00231.3500986193294
2026-07-01T15:09:35+08:00231.4145299145299
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捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
+4.6%
→
參與人數
16,062
→
人均手數
75.2
→
認購倍數
172x
172x = 16,062 × 75.2 ÷ 7,022 孖展加權 100% → 3272.5x
1x32873.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.54
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.64
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 3646.06x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.536, 乙組 α=0.636) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌瑞為技術中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手;非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

18C特專科技

《主板規則》第18C章,爲特專科技公司設立。機制A及機制B不適用。初訂分配份額爲5%,回補門檻:10倍至不足50倍→10%,50倍或以上→20%。根據第18C.08條,發售股份總數中至少50%須由配售部分的獨立定價投資者認購。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 瑞為技術(07656)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α,覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測,查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析