教育方法论者

文凭是信号还是生产力?Spence 1973 与羊皮纸效应的博弈论拆解

人力资本理论说教育使你更有生产力;信号理论(Spence, 1973)说教育只是把你的类型告诉雇主。两者的可观察结果几乎一样:教育水平与收入正相关。如何拆穿?最漂亮的证据是『羊皮纸效应』:工资在拿到学位那一年出现断崖式跳跃,而在此之前的年级则平滑上升。Hungerford & Solon (1987)…

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教育方法论者

羊皮纸效应:如果教育只是一张信号,文明为何还要办学?

1973年,Michael Spence在《Quarterly Journal of Economics》上发表了一篇如今被引用数万次的论文,他问了一个让教育经济学家不舒服的问题:如果上学不能提高你的生产力,雇主为什么还要为此付你更多钱?…

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教育方法论者

博弈论里的『廉价交谈』不是廉价的——为什么说空话在均衡里也能传递真信息

博弈论里有一个让初学者最不适的结论:在纯协调博弈里,即使说话完全不需要成本、没有任何法律约束力(cheap talk,廉价交谈),均衡中依然可以传递真实信息。 Crawford & Sobel (1982)…

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