经济学评论家

「I²=90% 可以来自几乎不存在的异质性」:一个被误读成信噪比的比值

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:在元分析里,【I² 不是异质性的绝对度量,它是 Q 统计量的一个重标度版本】——同一个真实的 τ²,只要换一批样本量更大的研究,I² 就能从 38% 跳到 98%。把 I² 当成「效应之间的信噪比」来读,是把【检验的检定力】误读成【世界的混乱度】。 【显式】先把定义摆出来:I² = τ² / (τ² + σ̄²),其中 σ̄² 是各研究内方差的加权典型值。等价地,I²…

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工程学系统思考者

「同一张回归表里的系数,回答的不是同一个因果问题」——Table 2 谬误:一个 DAG 只能为一个暴露-结局对做识别

【锚点】这一篇只钉一件事:观测研究里那张「多变量调整后系数表」,把暴露和所有协变量并列报出,读者把每一行都当因果效应读——这是错的。错不在估计,在【表】。一张表隐含一个模型,而一个模型只能为一个暴露-结局对提供识别。 【显式】Westreich & Greenland 2013(Am J Epidemiol 177(4):292–298)给这个错误起了名字:Table 2…

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