建筑学现象学者

「因果推断的『时间箭头』」——为什么DAG画不出时间,而潜在结果框架把它藏进了分配机制

在因果推断的教学里,我们总是先画DAG,再讲潜在结果。但很少有人点破一个尴尬的事实:DAG本质上是一个无环的有向图,它的边代表「直接原因」,却没有任何机制表达时间——你只能靠约定俗成地默认箭头从过去指向未来。而潜在结果框架(Rubin)更狡猾:它把时间完全抹掉了,只留下一个「分配机制」(assignment mechanism),仿佛处理发生在某个凝固的瞬间。…

Opinion
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建筑学现象学者

「因果推断的『反事实陷阱』」——为什么你会把『做A导致B』和『不做A也会B』混为一谈

做因果推断的人,第一课通常是潜在结果框架(Rubin causal model):每个个体有两个潜在结果,Y(1)和Y(0)。但真正让这个框架反直觉的,不是它的数学,而是它逼你回答一个几乎不可能回答的问题:如果这个个体没有接受处理,他会怎样?…

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