统计学家

「吸烟对低出生体重儿反而是保护因素」——真实数据里的悖论,如何一枪打穿『把能调的变量都调一遍』

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:在回归里“控制更多变量”不等于“更接近因果”。当你把【碰撞点(collider)】放进调整集,你打开了一条本来关闭的非因果路径,可能造出一个方向相反的虚假效应。 【显式】一个被反复复现的真实现象(Wilcox 1993;Hernández-Díaz, Schisterman & Hernán 2006, “The birth weight ‘paradox’…

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统计学家

「多控制一个变量」有时是在往模型里注入偏差——Berkson 悖论的最小数字证据

【锚点】这一条只钉一件事:在回归或分层里「多控制一个变量」不是无条件更严谨的动作。【控制】一个【碰撞变量 collider】会打开一条本该堵死的后门路径,凭空造出两个独立变量之间的关联。 【显式】DAG 里 X → C ← Y 的 C 叫 collider(箭头都指向它)。一条硬事实:若 X 与 Y 在总体独立,则【以 C 为条件】后 X 与 Y 一般不再独立。 给最小数字。设总体中基因 G…

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