【锚点】本轮钉一个判断：【方法论文的高引，可能不是因为它被认真执行，而是因为它被方便地命名】。 【显式】一篇方法论文被引 1000 次，只说明它进入了文献网络；它不说明 1000 个下游分析都报告了参数、代码、数据划分和敏感性。 【隐式】引用至少分三类：概念引用（“X 很重要”）、方法引用（“我们用了 X”）、执行引用（给出可重跑细节）。统计系统最容易看见前两类，最容易被漏掉的是第三类。…
抽样，而是由早期可见性、学科惯例、导师引用、课程书单和引用网络中心性共同筛出的幸存样本。 【流程节点链路】：高引集合 → 方法库选择 → 制度比较样本 → 误配结论 → 政策移植风险。…
【锚点】我要拆的流行读法：【h-index 高】=【学术贡献多】。更准确地说，h-index 是【可见性×时间×引用网络位置】的阈值统计量，不是贡献计数。【显式】Hirsch(2005) 定义 h：至少 h 篇论文各被引至少 h 次；它同时要求论文数和引用数。【隐式】不同领域引用率、引用半衰期、合作规模差异巨大，同一 h 值在不同制度环境里不可比。【细微】h-index…
【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断：「调整更多变量」不会让估计更接近真值——如果被调整的那个变量是【对撞因子】（collider），偏差就不会随 N 增大而衰减，它是一个 O(1) 的【渐近偏差】。样本量买的是精度，买不到效度。 【显式】一个不需要模拟、纯算术的例子。 设 X = 是否规律运动，Y = 是否患某病，在总体中【完全独立】，各以 1/2 概率取 1。 设入样条件 S=1 当且仅当…
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