MiniMax-W 00100中签预测

MiniMax-W(00100)中签预测
发售机制: 18C特专科技 | 最低申购: HK$9,900  |  公开发售手数: 甲组 10,579手 / 乙组 10,579手  |  招股价: HK$165.00  |  每手: 60股  |  公开发售募资: HK$2.09亿
1x4774.0x
近期首日表现
+4.6%
→
参与人数
19,952
→
人均手数
84.3
→
认购倍数
27x
27x = 19,952 × 84.3 ÷ 63,474 孖展加权 100% → 1622.1x
孖展动态 · 2026-01-06 17:31 孖展倍数1351.77x 孖展资金2831.5亿 捷利预测倍数1622.13x
排名 券商 孖展资金
1 富途证券富途 1752.7亿
2 辉立证券辉立 640.0亿
3 老虎国际老虎 263.1亿
4 华泰国际华泰 92.9亿
5 华盛证券华盛 39.0亿
6 盈立证券盈立 15.5亿
7 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 10.2亿
8 长桥证券长桥 10.0亿
9 信诚证券信诚 5.0亿
孖展倍数
时间倍数
2025-12-31T06:00:00+08:000
2025-12-31T10:02:19+08:000.016661892485438746
2025-12-31T10:04:11+08:000.3720042012794806
2025-12-31T10:04:45+08:000.4339730736178745
2025-12-31T10:06:52+08:001.0593908144753175
2025-12-31T11:03:17+08:001.0596772653489928
2025-12-31T11:03:23+08:001.1527737992934213
2025-12-31T11:04:40+08:002.3294185047264393
2025-12-31T11:06:10+08:002.366943569177886
2025-12-31T11:07:41+08:002.5701804640504156
2025-12-31T11:08:19+08:006.637782870237754
2025-12-31T11:48:35+08:006.695073044972787
2025-12-31T12:03:02+08:006.701136255132245
2025-12-31T12:04:43+08:008.081399789936025
2025-12-31T12:05:49+08:008.289172156975079
2025-12-31T12:08:03+08:0012.881934498233553
2025-12-31T13:43:15+08:0012.887711257519335
2025-12-31T13:43:18+08:0013.222811037906999
2025-12-31T13:43:21+08:0013.227251026448965
2025-12-31T13:43:24+08:0019.352525541869568
2025-12-31T13:43:27+08:0019.807075336579775
2025-12-31T14:25:42+08:0019.854482956173015
2025-12-31T14:25:46+08:0019.949966580731406
2025-12-31T14:25:49+08:0019.864747445813045
2025-12-31T14:25:52+08:0022.39028931538241
2025-12-31T14:32:32+08:0022.89320156593144
2025-12-31T15:26:47+08:0022.893631242241955
2025-12-31T15:26:50+08:0022.894204143989306
2025-12-31T15:27:01+08:0022.939367898405422
2025-12-31T15:27:03+08:0024.25298386326745
2025-12-31T15:27:06+08:0032.00625417740857
2025-12-31T16:21:11+08:0033.653346701040775
2025-12-31T16:21:27+08:0033.67459180750501
2025-12-31T16:21:30+08:0034.236512938031126
2025-12-31T16:21:33+08:0041.092237181323405
2025-12-31T16:21:36+08:0041.099398453165286
2025-12-31T16:33:52+08:0041.14714026544448
2025-12-31T17:01:18+08:0041.15936216938795
2025-12-31T17:04:05+08:0041.649479614246154
2025-12-31T17:05:01+08:0041.787787644418984
2025-12-31T17:05:51+08:0046.26119545497947
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2025-12-31T18:15:50+08:0048.93158598300391
2025-12-31T18:19:41+08:0052.47880263534804
2025-12-31T19:57:43+08:0052.480664566026924
2025-12-31T19:57:52+08:0052.48109424233744
2025-12-31T19:58:08+08:0052.59118686145326
2025-12-31T19:59:16+08:0052.91167764728349
2025-12-31T20:00:12+08:0055.04573665616347
2025-12-31T20:06:41+08:0055.66260861262293
2025-12-31T20:07:11+08:0055.87176549221808
2025-12-31T20:08:27+08:0057.44724529743149
2025-12-31T21:37:22+08:0057.81175403418314
2025-12-31T21:37:46+08:0057.91287119259047
2025-12-31T21:38:54+08:0059.58383462236227
2025-12-31T22:13:06+08:0059.91182087272033
2025-12-31T22:14:21+08:0062.68084598491359
2026-01-01T09:20:13+08:0062.71693879499666
2026-01-01T09:22:07+08:0062.71693879499666
2026-01-01T09:23:15+08:0062.71918266017378
2026-01-01T09:26:20+08:0064.17378019669627
2026-01-01T09:27:10+08:0064.17378019669627
2026-01-01T09:27:55+08:0072.92008020624463
2026-01-01T09:28:33+08:0073.9465291702473
2026-01-01T10:07:26+08:0073.9483433591139
2026-01-01T10:07:53+08:0074.06077532703141
2026-01-01T10:08:31+08:0074.44270982526497
2026-01-01T13:16:47+08:0074.45302205671727
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2026-01-01T13:22:01+08:0076.38537190871766
2026-01-01T13:22:31+08:0077.00601546834717
2026-01-01T13:23:03+08:0077.98472262007066
2026-01-01T16:21:23+08:0077.98773035424425
2026-01-01T16:23:56+08:0078.41153442184665
2026-01-01T16:25:39+08:0081.29991406473789
2026-01-01T16:26:07+08:0081.90623508068366
2026-01-01T18:19:06+08:0081.90771507686432
2026-01-01T18:21:23+08:0082.12264871574526
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2026-01-01T20:37:40+08:0083.83242623890003
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2026-01-01T20:40:34+08:0085.08569655304116
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2026-01-01T22:13:01+08:0086.1794137305452
2026-01-01T22:15:11+08:0086.42070084980426
2026-01-01T22:16:10+08:0087.40418218275566
2026-01-01T22:16:42+08:0089.07037143129953
2026-01-02T08:52:54+08:0089.0660746681944
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2026-01-02T08:57:12+08:0089.23317101117158
2026-01-02T08:57:15+08:0089.91917311181132
2026-01-02T08:58:28+08:0096.3308985009071
2026-01-02T09:01:09+08:0096.3308985009071
2026-01-02T09:03:32+08:0096.33677074381744
2026-01-02T09:05:12+08:0096.67311181132436
2026-01-02T09:06:00+08:0097.61362551322448
2026-01-02T10:06:19+08:0097.61505776759286
2026-01-02T10:06:22+08:0097.61591712021388
2026-01-02T10:06:25+08:0097.6156306693402
2026-01-02T10:08:25+08:0098.48620261625132
2026-01-02T10:08:31+08:0099.83934880168052
2026-01-02T10:08:38+08:00106.0839778477991
2026-01-02T11:18:48+08:00107.64346414589897
2026-01-02T11:19:53+08:00107.89974219421369
2026-01-02T11:21:51+08:00107.8921512460613
2026-01-02T11:21:53+08:00107.89219898787358
2026-01-02T11:22:15+08:00108.97799102453929
2026-01-02T11:23:49+08:00118.45951494318724
2026-01-02T12:12:11+08:00118.81027403800248
2026-01-02T12:13:38+08:00120.44213692351762
2026-01-02T12:14:34+08:00120.4428530507018
2026-01-02T12:15:42+08:00130.63095579108182
2026-01-02T13:48:32+08:00130.63138546739233
2026-01-02T13:48:37+08:00130.63181514370285
2026-01-02T13:48:42+08:00130.63224482001337
2026-01-02T13:50:34+08:00130.630812565645
2026-01-02T13:52:32+08:00131.79308698558197
2026-01-02T13:53:16+08:00136.9635252554187
2026-01-02T13:54:23+08:00136.96686718227824
2026-01-02T13:56:37+08:00137.39654349279098
2026-01-02T14:04:39+08:00137.3969731691015
2026-01-02T14:07:06+08:00138.05929533085077
2026-01-02T14:10:19+08:00138.74329227537478
2026-01-02T14:11:24+08:00144.24314904993793
2026-01-02T14:13:40+08:00149.79428053088895
2026-01-02T15:27:04+08:00149.80712307839207
2026-01-02T15:27:08+08:00149.81060823068844
2026-01-02T15:27:10+08:00149.78917215697507
2026-01-02T15:27:13+08:00149.8178172443426
2026-01-02T15:29:33+08:00149.96834717845888
2026-01-02T15:31:10+08:00157.04368375823546
2026-01-02T15:31:53+08:00158.6335338489449
2026-01-02T16:09:56+08:00158.69111047455362
2026-01-02T16:11:02+08:00160.07834431395017
2026-01-02T16:11:41+08:00167.23961615582928
2026-01-02T16:12:25+08:00167.2400458321398
2026-01-02T17:29:52+08:00167.23875680320825
2026-01-02T17:30:24+08:00167.24104841019766
2026-01-02T17:30:39+08:00167.2411438938222
2026-01-02T17:31:21+08:00167.27795283108946
2026-01-02T17:32:02+08:00168.72620070657882
2026-01-02T17:33:10+08:00175.50076386899647
2026-01-02T17:33:38+08:00204.88584932684046
2026-01-02T17:59:43+08:00204.89916929246635
2026-01-02T18:07:36+08:00204.9013176740189
2026-01-02T18:08:01+08:00204.9075718514275
2026-01-02T18:09:26+08:00205.63730545211496
2026-01-02T18:10:34+08:00210.59767974792322
2026-01-02T18:20:02+08:00212.33194882077723
2026-01-02T18:21:49+08:00212.346271364461
2026-01-02T20:53:41+08:00212.43144275756708
2026-01-02T20:54:49+08:00212.43282727012317
2026-01-02T21:06:22+08:00216.2227632960947
2026-01-02T21:09:49+08:00221.05900887997709
2026-01-02T21:10:25+08:00228.54015086412682
2026-01-02T21:11:03+08:00232.77962379451924
2026-01-02T22:23:57+08:00234.151675737611
2026-01-02T22:24:53+08:00238.82082497851619
2026-01-03T08:41:41+08:00238.82941850472645
2026-01-03T08:44:23+08:00238.82946624653871
2026-01-03T08:45:22+08:00242.2797192781438
2026-01-03T08:46:15+08:00242.2797192781438
2026-01-03T08:46:53+08:00259.84393201565933
2026-01-03T10:45:10+08:00259.8443616919698
2026-01-03T10:45:56+08:00259.90828797861167
2026-01-03T10:47:57+08:00261.5266399312518
2026-01-03T10:48:53+08:00264.2097297813425
2026-01-03T10:49:18+08:00268.5303637926096
2026-01-03T13:36:00+08:00268.52372768070273
2026-01-03T13:37:39+08:00271.24472452974317
2026-01-03T13:39:10+08:00279.2748973551036
2026-01-03T13:39:44+08:00283.28998376778384
2026-01-03T16:51:56+08:00285.93497565167576
2026-01-03T16:53:23+08:00290.97651102835863
2026-01-03T16:53:50+08:00293.8696648524778
2026-01-03T19:03:13+08:00293.8700945287883
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2026-01-03T19:04:33+08:00293.8769693497565
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2026-01-03T19:06:58+08:00302.3042585696553
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2026-01-04T12:25:18+08:00338.5303160507973
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捷利预测倍数
时间倍数
券商孖展资金走势
时间券商孖展资金
甲组 α=
分配手法系数 α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.54
乙组 α=
分配手法系数 α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.64
此模型不适用分配手法调节

实际 vs 预测 对比

以实际认购倍数 1837.17x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.540, 乙组 α=0.640) 为基准,对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数

申购手数 认购金额(HKD) 实际期望中签 预测期望中签 偏差

LogoMiniMax-W中签预测矩阵

行为申购档位,列为不同认购倍数,数值为期望中签手数,绿色背景表示稳中(≥1手)

甲组

认购倍数
1622.1x
分配手法
α=
分配手法系数 α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.54

乙组

认购倍数
1622.1x
分配手法
α=
分配手法系数 α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.64
发售机制说明

18C特专科技

《主板规则》第18C章,为特专科技公司设立。机制A及机制B不适用。初订分配份额为5%,回补门槛:10倍至不足50倍→10%,50倍或以上→20%。根据第18C.08条,发售股份总数中至少50%须由配售部分的独立定价投资者认购。

分配手法系数 α

α 为发行人分配偏好系数,描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——无论申购多少手,每位中签者获配股数相同。对散户(小单申购)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——获配股数与申购手数成正比。对大额申购更有利。
  • 历史实际 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3–0.9,乙组 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差异较大,反映发行人各自的分配策略。
中签率定义

本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致:中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径,与其他网站可能使用的不同定义(如「申购人数中签比例」)有本质区别。

期望中签手数

期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数

例:某档位获配总股数 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

// 关于本页 //

本页展示 MiniMax-W(00100)的中签预测:基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导,公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数;其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准,再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准;随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权;临近截止(进度约九成后)默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 356 只 IPO 的 10897 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配,估计各申购档位的期望中签手数,并结合分配手法系数 α(人均分配至比例分配)给出区间。
数据来源:港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告;孖展数据(孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细)来自捷利交易宝(TradeGo),倍数仅覆盖已上报券商,捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新;中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。

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数据来源:本页面数据来源于港交所披露易等机构公开披露的文件。相关机构不对该等数据的准确性、及时性或完整性作任何保证,亦不对基于该数据所作的分析结论背书。

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Cibo — 港股IPO中签率预测、中签画像与入通分析