希音－Ｗ 00625
新股中签预测
40.6402.31%( -0.960 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
31.0亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
12.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
7.4亿 |
| 4 |  盈立 |
3.6亿 |
| 5 |  华泰 |
3.5亿 |
| 7 |  复星 |
1.7亿 |
| 8 |  信诚 |
1.5亿 |
| 9 |  长桥 |
1.2亿 |
| 10 |  致富 |
1.1亿 |
| 11 |  兴证 |
6025万 |
| 12 |  华盛 |
4100万 |
| 13 |  熊猫 |
3624万 |
| 14 |  东证 |
2070万 |
| 15 |  艾德 |
1058万 |
| 16 |  盈宝 |
114万 |
| 17 |  TradeGo |
68万 |
| 18 |  Funderstone |
9万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-24T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-08-24T10:05:53+08:00 | 0.0036075816936874537 |
| 2026-08-24T10:06:01+08:00 | 0.011248439720917481 |
| 2026-08-24T10:06:07+08:00 | 0.053435500046898565 |
| 2026-08-24T10:06:14+08:00 | 0.0735513755708998 |
| 2026-08-24T10:06:20+08:00 | 0.07591794916195878 |
| 2026-08-24T10:06:26+08:00 | 0.12137347850242068 |
| 2026-08-24T11:06:57+08:00 | 0.12831446568107535 |
| 2026-08-24T11:07:03+08:00 | 0.13662633390333123 |
| 2026-08-24T11:07:27+08:00 | 0.24625352641110557 |
| 2026-08-24T11:07:29+08:00 | 0.26654256585640385 |
| 2026-08-24T11:07:32+08:00 | 0.28278389864138476 |
| 2026-08-24T11:07:34+08:00 | 0.77 |
| 2026-08-24T11:49:16+08:00 | 0.7728738717288253 |
| 2026-08-24T12:22:16+08:00 | 0.7756805702865142 |
| 2026-08-24T12:22:19+08:00 | 0.7854210408594703 |
| 2026-08-24T12:22:23+08:00 | 1.0808026147752117 |
| 2026-08-24T12:22:27+08:00 | 1.0932199109648837 |
| 2026-08-24T12:22:29+08:00 | 1.1226361320952114 |
| 2026-08-24T12:22:32+08:00 | 1.9 |
| 2026-08-24T13:47:52+08:00 | 1.9825320894391654 |
| 2026-08-24T13:47:58+08:00 | 1.9976839325526528 |
| 2026-08-24T13:48:05+08:00 | 2.0006277192147017 |
| 2026-08-24T13:48:08+08:00 | 2.008044907176923 |
| 2026-08-24T13:48:12+08:00 | 2.017366898273411 |
| 2026-08-24T13:48:15+08:00 | 2.0206642279414417 |
| 2026-08-24T13:48:18+08:00 | 2.1584738486403023 |
| 2026-08-24T14:11:35+08:00 | 2.169087353983131 |
| 2026-08-24T14:11:38+08:00 | 2.1755449252148313 |
| 2026-08-24T14:11:41+08:00 | 2.247415167716473 |
| 2026-08-24T14:11:44+08:00 | 2.2519029993434203 |
| 2026-08-24T14:11:47+08:00 | 2.249572501569298 |
| 2026-08-24T14:11:49+08:00 | 2.3722302791546714 |
| 2026-08-24T14:13:17+08:00 | 2.4034214304782933 |
| 2026-08-24T14:43:20+08:00 | 2.404395477535589 |
| 2026-08-24T15:11:18+08:00 | 2.4207233922812184 |
| 2026-08-24T15:11:21+08:00 | 2.42437426495523 |
| 2026-08-24T15:11:24+08:00 | 2.5243836446676333 |
| 2026-08-24T15:11:26+08:00 | 2.534751834455291 |
| 2026-08-24T15:11:29+08:00 | 2.5348600619061017 |
| 2026-08-24T15:11:32+08:00 | 2.5767080095528763 |
| 2026-08-24T15:12:10+08:00 | 2.58 |
| 2026-08-24T16:13:43+08:00 | 2.592617444822038 |
| 2026-08-24T16:13:46+08:00 | 2.595618952791186 |
| 2026-08-24T16:13:49+08:00 | 2.6165934327582847 |
| 2026-08-24T16:13:52+08:00 | 2.619580510400658 |
| 2026-08-24T16:13:55+08:00 | 2.6248620100002165 |
| 2026-08-24T16:13:58+08:00 | 2.7092794216325027 |
| 2026-08-24T16:14:40+08:00 | 2.7453552385693776 |
| 2026-08-24T16:16:18+08:00 | 2.781431055506252 |
| 2026-08-24T17:05:38+08:00 | 2.7968787203186216 |
| 2026-08-24T17:05:41+08:00 | 2.801489209723154 |
| 2026-08-24T17:05:44+08:00 | 2.822752296225748 |
| 2026-08-24T17:05:46+08:00 | 2.822463689690253 |
| 2026-08-24T17:05:49+08:00 | 2.821763818841678 |
| 2026-08-24T17:05:52+08:00 | 2.9242191389424015 |
| 2026-08-24T17:06:06+08:00 | 3.06 |
| 2026-08-24T17:46:51+08:00 | 3.5699762621124553 |
| 2026-08-24T18:02:25+08:00 | 3.5751856100781403 |
| 2026-08-24T18:02:41+08:00 | 3.5910228937134283 |
| 2026-08-24T18:19:33+08:00 | 3.7430968924291292 |
| 2026-08-24T18:20:13+08:00 | 3.755882161951557 |
| 2026-08-24T18:20:24+08:00 | 3.7592949342337856 |
| 2026-08-24T18:20:33+08:00 | 3.7687973044149583 |
| 2026-08-24T18:20:43+08:00 | 3.7969364416257205 |
| 2026-08-24T20:40:35+08:00 | 3.800904781488777 |
| 2026-08-24T20:40:40+08:00 | 3.804158820176483 |
| 2026-08-24T20:40:50+08:00 | 3.8270308881144612 |
| 2026-08-24T20:41:00+08:00 | 3.827903922884334 |
| 2026-08-24T20:41:09+08:00 | 3.861815190804996 |
| 2026-08-24T20:41:18+08:00 | 3.8659999855696734 |
| 2026-08-24T20:41:22+08:00 | 3.8712454093522948 |
| 2026-08-24T20:41:36+08:00 | 3.871425788436979 |
| 2026-08-24T20:41:45+08:00 | 3.8533878799685417 |
| 2026-08-24T22:24:47+08:00 | 3.8545423061105217 |
| 2026-08-24T22:24:57+08:00 | 3.856779006760608 |
| 2026-08-24T22:25:08+08:00 | 3.912371840660332 |
| 2026-08-24T22:25:17+08:00 | 3.926080651096344 |
| 2026-08-24T22:25:26+08:00 | 3.9490032251780343 |
| 2026-08-24T22:25:36+08:00 | 3.9496020837391863 |
| 2026-08-24T22:25:45+08:00 | 3.92 |
| 2026-08-25T08:40:45+08:00 | 3.966860754561787 |
| 2026-08-25T08:40:48+08:00 | 3.9779721061783446 |
| 2026-08-25T08:40:51+08:00 | 4.010440341421531 |
| 2026-08-25T08:41:40+08:00 | 4.010440341421531 |
| 2026-08-25T09:01:32+08:00 | 4.0329516511901415 |
| 2026-08-25T09:01:53+08:00 | 4.0416170624183785 |
| 2026-08-25T09:02:28+08:00 | 4.115558056812197 |
| 2026-08-25T09:04:50+08:00 | 4.118624501251831 |
| 2026-08-25T09:04:59+08:00 | 4.129836865155811 |
| 2026-08-25T09:05:17+08:00 | 4.13 |
| 2026-08-25T10:10:19+08:00 | 4.1012143119980955 |
| 2026-08-25T10:10:30+08:00 | 4.141049229059792 |
| 2026-08-25T10:11:05+08:00 | 4.142304667489196 |
| 2026-08-25T10:11:22+08:00 | 4.146843005259854 |
| 2026-08-25T10:11:29+08:00 | 4.149303375974949 |
| 2026-08-25T10:11:41+08:00 | 4.215682879138798 |
| 2026-08-25T11:14:13+08:00 | 4.240163928512161 |
| 2026-08-25T11:14:25+08:00 | 4.239579500277784 |
| 2026-08-25T11:14:35+08:00 | 4.213915164108891 |
| 2026-08-25T11:15:02+08:00 | 4.212537067901903 |
| 2026-08-25T11:15:44+08:00 | 4.213431748161937 |
| 2026-08-25T11:15:51+08:00 | 4.38 |
| 2026-08-25T12:05:16+08:00 | 4.353276044936037 |
| 2026-08-25T12:08:51+08:00 | 4.35054871317561 |
| 2026-08-25T12:09:02+08:00 | 4.345151770961853 |
| 2026-08-25T12:09:32+08:00 | 4.3467823978874005 |
| 2026-08-25T12:09:53+08:00 | 4.348095557623902 |
| 2026-08-25T12:10:08+08:00 | 4.3870574399157265 |
| 2026-08-25T13:44:42+08:00 | 4.388760218475148 |
| 2026-08-25T13:44:46+08:00 | 4.393089316507572 |
| 2026-08-25T13:44:50+08:00 | 4.392288433371574 |
| 2026-08-25T13:44:54+08:00 | 4.392641976377555 |
| 2026-08-25T13:44:57+08:00 | 4.393226404611933 |
| 2026-08-25T13:44:59+08:00 | 4.3916318535033225 |
| 2026-08-25T13:45:05+08:00 | 4.36 |
| 2026-08-25T14:07:45+08:00 | 4.33771293750947 |
| 2026-08-25T14:07:48+08:00 | 4.3380087592083525 |
| 2026-08-25T14:07:52+08:00 | 4.347554420369849 |
| 2026-08-25T14:07:55+08:00 | 4.304046985143978 |
| 2026-08-25T14:07:57+08:00 | 4.302748255734251 |
| 2026-08-25T14:08:03+08:00 | 4.184419576181303 |
| 2026-08-25T14:10:15+08:00 | 4.2082368305230275 |
| 2026-08-25T15:17:18+08:00 | 4.21600756149123 |
| 2026-08-25T15:17:22+08:00 | 4.219175018218287 |
| 2026-08-25T15:17:26+08:00 | 4.224038038341378 |
| 2026-08-25T15:17:29+08:00 | 4.22469461820963 |
| 2026-08-25T15:17:32+08:00 | 4.223561837557812 |
| 2026-08-25T15:17:38+08:00 | 4.27 |
| 2026-08-25T16:05:59+08:00 | 4.253555271759129 |
| 2026-08-25T16:06:02+08:00 | 4.254334509404965 |
| 2026-08-25T16:06:07+08:00 | 4.258512089006255 |
| 2026-08-25T16:06:10+08:00 | 4.25995512168373 |
| 2026-08-25T16:06:12+08:00 | 4.261044611355224 |
| 2026-08-25T16:06:19+08:00 | 4.287019199549774 |
| 2026-08-25T17:02:10+08:00 | 4.300655858351912 |
| 2026-08-25T17:02:49+08:00 | 4.29829649992424 |
| 2026-08-25T17:03:13+08:00 | 4.286413125825234 |
| 2026-08-25T17:04:00+08:00 | 4.28813033471143 |
| 2026-08-25T17:04:05+08:00 | 4.288000461770457 |
| 2026-08-25T17:05:21+08:00 | 4.3 |
| 2026-08-25T17:16:12+08:00 | 4.67 |
| 2026-08-25T17:34:00+08:00 | 4.71 |
| 2026-08-25T18:05:43+08:00 | 4.6854693824541656 |
| 2026-08-25T18:05:46+08:00 | 4.688528611730413 |
| 2026-08-25T18:05:49+08:00 | 4.689971644407888 |
| 2026-08-25T18:05:51+08:00 | 4.690166453819347 |
| 2026-08-25T18:05:54+08:00 | 4.6902241751264455 |
| 2026-08-25T18:05:59+08:00 | 4.74 |
| 2026-08-25T18:34:17+08:00 | 4.718009769331227 |
| 2026-08-25T20:39:19+08:00 | 4.717764453776056 |
| 2026-08-25T20:39:24+08:00 | 4.718586982402217 |
| 2026-08-25T20:39:40+08:00 | 4.72124216252877 |
| 2026-08-25T20:39:51+08:00 | 4.721747223965886 |
| 2026-08-25T20:40:14+08:00 | 4.715975093255987 |
| 2026-08-25T20:40:28+08:00 | 4.7165450911635896 |
| 2026-08-25T20:40:46+08:00 | 4.7167471157384355 |
| 2026-08-25T20:40:58+08:00 | 4.7175912898547585 |
| 2026-08-25T20:41:23+08:00 | 4.75 |
| 2026-08-25T21:17:09+08:00 | 4.719755838870971 |
| 2026-08-25T21:17:28+08:00 | 4.711725362020823 |
| 2026-08-25T21:17:41+08:00 | 4.711797513654696 |
| 2026-08-25T21:18:01+08:00 | 4.529975396292849 |
| 2026-08-25T22:06:19+08:00 | 4.5306319761611 |
| 2026-08-25T22:06:30+08:00 | 4.52991767498575 |
| 2026-08-25T22:06:50+08:00 | 4.58 |
| 2026-08-26T08:49:26+08:00 | 4.560502752584832 |
| 2026-08-26T08:49:44+08:00 | 4.560502752584832 |
| 2026-08-26T08:49:49+08:00 | 4.548200899009358 |
| 2026-08-26T08:50:29+08:00 | 4.58 |
| 2026-08-26T09:31:49+08:00 | 4.5626312257841075 |
| 2026-08-26T09:31:59+08:00 | 4.563201223691711 |
| 2026-08-26T09:32:42+08:00 | 4.553698853510538 |
| 2026-08-26T09:33:00+08:00 | 4.539095362814491 |
| 2026-08-26T09:33:11+08:00 | 4.5369308137982785 |
| 2026-08-26T09:34:47+08:00 | 4.55 |
| 2026-08-26T10:08:43+08:00 | 4.538813971442384 |
| 2026-08-26T10:08:46+08:00 | 4.539701436539031 |
| 2026-08-26T10:08:49+08:00 | 4.551029243057209 |
| 2026-08-26T10:08:52+08:00 | 4.552616579002431 |
| 2026-08-26T10:08:55+08:00 | 4.538099670267033 |
| 2026-08-26T10:08:58+08:00 | 4.57 |
| 2026-08-26T11:13:12+08:00 | 4.559911109187068 |
| 2026-08-26T11:13:22+08:00 | 4.561491229968903 |
| 2026-08-26T11:13:24+08:00 | 4.566108934536823 |
| 2026-08-26T11:13:27+08:00 | 4.566375895582156 |
| 2026-08-26T11:13:30+08:00 | 4.567674624991883 |
| 2026-08-26T11:13:35+08:00 | 4.59 |
| 2026-08-26T12:13:17+08:00 | 4.585835191237906 |
| 2026-08-26T12:13:20+08:00 | 4.586787592805039 |
| 2026-08-26T12:13:27+08:00 | 4.5914413731898955 |
| 2026-08-26T12:13:30+08:00 | 4.59351934024546 |
| 2026-08-26T12:13:31+08:00 | 4.595344776582466 |
| 2026-08-26T12:13:34+08:00 | 4.66 |
| 2026-08-26T13:42:22+08:00 | 4.617149000339112 |
| 2026-08-26T13:42:28+08:00 | 4.617278873280085 |
| 2026-08-26T13:42:31+08:00 | 4.60948649682172 |
| 2026-08-26T13:42:35+08:00 | 4.607928021530047 |
| 2026-08-26T13:42:38+08:00 | 4.607632199831166 |
| 2026-08-26T13:42:44+08:00 | 4.65 |
| 2026-08-26T14:10:02+08:00 | 4.607365238785833 |
| 2026-08-26T14:10:04+08:00 | 4.607725996955201 |
| 2026-08-26T14:10:07+08:00 | 4.623599356407426 |
| 2026-08-26T14:10:09+08:00 | 4.626680231173835 |
| 2026-08-26T14:10:12+08:00 | 4.623022143336436 |
| 2026-08-26T14:10:18+08:00 | 4.630237306723811 |
| 2026-08-26T14:10:44+08:00 | 4.63 |
| 2026-08-26T15:16:52+08:00 | 4.596347684293311 |
| 2026-08-26T15:16:55+08:00 | 4.5959724957971675 |
| 2026-08-26T15:16:58+08:00 | 4.6264277004552765 |
| 2026-08-26T15:17:01+08:00 | 4.6269616225459425 |
| 2026-08-26T15:17:04+08:00 | 4.631709200054836 |
| 2026-08-26T15:17:09+08:00 | 4.68 |
| 2026-08-26T15:39:11+08:00 | 4.71 |
| 2026-08-26T16:02:34+08:00 | 4.671154498293614 |
| 2026-08-26T16:02:39+08:00 | 4.674971319725535 |
| 2026-08-26T16:04:17+08:00 | 4.452787578374712 |
| 2026-08-26T16:04:24+08:00 | 4.454504787260907 |
| 2026-08-26T16:06:58+08:00 | 4.48 |
| 2026-08-26T17:07:29+08:00 | 4.43174094677374 |
| 2026-08-26T17:07:32+08:00 | 4.576044214521238 |
| 2026-08-26T17:07:40+08:00 | 4.576296745239796 |
| 2026-08-26T17:07:43+08:00 | 4.549247097700527 |
| 2026-08-26T17:07:45+08:00 | 4.548951276001645 |
| 2026-08-26T17:07:51+08:00 | 4.58 |
| 2026-08-26T18:10:34+08:00 | 4.550365448025571 |
| 2026-08-26T18:11:03+08:00 | 4.554607964097347 |
| 2026-08-26T18:11:17+08:00 | 4.554579103443798 |
| 2026-08-26T18:11:33+08:00 | 4.553987460046033 |
| 2026-08-26T18:11:43+08:00 | 4.559333896116078 |
| 2026-08-26T18:11:53+08:00 | 4.61 |
| 2026-08-26T20:32:59+08:00 | 4.563071350750738 |
| 2026-08-26T20:33:05+08:00 | 4.562797174542018 |
| 2026-08-26T20:33:17+08:00 | 4.566462477542804 |
| 2026-08-26T20:33:27+08:00 | 4.5657842521843905 |
| 2026-08-26T20:33:46+08:00 | 4.553518474425854 |
| 2026-08-26T20:34:00+08:00 | 4.526656421134657 |
| 2026-08-26T20:34:11+08:00 | 4.528135529629068 |
| 2026-08-26T20:34:29+08:00 | 4.6 |
| 2026-08-26T21:29:58+08:00 | 4.5496367165234455 |
| 2026-08-26T21:30:26+08:00 | 4.548345202277106 |
| 2026-08-26T21:30:36+08:00 | 4.551332279919479 |
| 2026-08-26T22:08:44+08:00 | 4.555480998867219 |
| 2026-08-26T22:08:54+08:00 | 4.55545213821367 |
| 2026-08-26T22:09:09+08:00 | 4.63 |
| 2026-08-27T08:43:05+08:00 | 4.580438249024149 |
| 2026-08-27T08:43:11+08:00 | 4.580438249024149 |
| 2026-08-27T08:43:13+08:00 | 4.607127138394049 |
| 2026-08-27T08:43:19+08:00 | 4.72762036696321 |
| 2026-08-27T09:01:28+08:00 | 4.730412635194124 |
| 2026-08-27T09:06:43+08:00 | 4.728493401733083 |
| 2026-08-27T09:06:46+08:00 | 4.728457325916145 |
| 2026-08-27T09:06:52+08:00 | 4.859773299566369 |
| 2026-08-27T09:07:39+08:00 | 4.838315403652316 |
| 2026-08-27T09:28:59+08:00 | 4.89 |
| 2026-08-27T10:29:24+08:00 | 4.83594161489787 |
| 2026-08-27T10:29:51+08:00 | 4.826359877919436 |
| 2026-08-27T10:30:02+08:00 | 4.897789995454447 |
| 2026-08-27T10:30:25+08:00 | 4.66 |
| 2026-08-27T11:10:31+08:00 | 4.66 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 5.63x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.615, 乙组 α=0.715) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
希音－Ｗ中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 希音－Ｗ（00625）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
