曦智科技 01879
新股中签预测
178.0001.60%( +2.800 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
3674.0亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
995.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
549.1亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
200.4亿 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
102.2亿 |
| 6 |  招银 |
100.0亿 |
| 7 |  信诚 |
70.0亿 |
| 8 |  盈立 |
67.7亿 |
| 9 |  致富 |
53.5亿 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-20T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-04-20T10:00:24+08:00 | 0.10152726121706102 |
| 2026-04-20T10:03:24+08:00 | 1.976576719158028 |
| 2026-04-20T10:05:31+08:00 | 7.048983144733718 |
| 2026-04-20T10:32:50+08:00 | 7.286381261375326 |
| 2026-04-20T11:16:07+08:00 | 7.444646672469732 |
| 2026-04-20T11:16:33+08:00 | 7.543562554403735 |
| 2026-04-20T11:17:00+08:00 | 10.700482709503838 |
| 2026-04-20T11:17:27+08:00 | 41.07161509852022 |
| 2026-04-20T11:49:23+08:00 | 41.86294215399224 |
| 2026-04-20T12:11:50+08:00 | 42.325710216032284 |
| 2026-04-20T12:12:00+08:00 | 45.11529635198227 |
| 2026-04-20T12:12:30+08:00 | 49.006647147265966 |
| 2026-04-20T12:13:14+08:00 | 73.78309725409511 |
| 2026-04-20T13:45:43+08:00 | 73.82274273957427 |
| 2026-04-20T13:46:29+08:00 | 74.10398037508902 |
| 2026-04-20T13:46:43+08:00 | 77.36234865870064 |
| 2026-04-20T13:47:13+08:00 | 93.20471630925061 |
| 2026-04-20T13:47:22+08:00 | 96.37002453113872 |
| 2026-04-20T14:01:13+08:00 | 96.42375563820526 |
| 2026-04-20T14:01:28+08:00 | 97.0070428107937 |
| 2026-04-20T14:02:09+08:00 | 101.07541346838649 |
| 2026-04-20T14:04:17+08:00 | 104.64453588668196 |
| 2026-04-20T14:05:32+08:00 | 122.9716704914141 |
| 2026-04-20T14:08:06+08:00 | 123.0508031969613 |
| 2026-04-20T15:19:44+08:00 | 126.19870222362903 |
| 2026-04-20T15:20:28+08:00 | 130.17963124159215 |
| 2026-04-20T15:21:08+08:00 | 130.78729128748913 |
| 2026-04-20T15:21:20+08:00 | 152.95236211126058 |
| 2026-04-20T15:21:54+08:00 | 156.90899738862072 |
| 2026-04-20T16:51:23+08:00 | 157.41236052860648 |
| 2026-04-20T16:51:45+08:00 | 161.59705626335364 |
| 2026-04-20T16:52:00+08:00 | 162.67104534304028 |
| 2026-04-20T16:52:47+08:00 | 185.23969296510248 |
| 2026-04-20T17:18:40+08:00 | 185.31194112526708 |
| 2026-04-20T17:19:13+08:00 | 194.3463638521801 |
| 2026-04-20T17:19:42+08:00 | 195.18160955923082 |
| 2026-04-20T17:20:22+08:00 | 246.6811743293503 |
| 2026-04-20T17:31:29+08:00 | 294.16079765767194 |
| 2026-04-20T18:06:45+08:00 | 297.32610587956003 |
| 2026-04-20T18:06:57+08:00 | 297.32396929651026 |
| 2026-04-20T18:07:23+08:00 | 297.89886840231065 |
| 2026-04-20T18:07:35+08:00 | 303.95885099311545 |
| 2026-04-20T18:08:23+08:00 | 330.4920471630925 |
| 2026-04-20T18:10:00+08:00 | 339.1175120677376 |
| 2026-04-20T18:11:11+08:00 | 350.79654981403814 |
| 2026-04-20T20:08:26+08:00 | 355.0110785787766 |
| 2026-04-20T20:08:42+08:00 | 355.50367967080797 |
| 2026-04-20T20:08:54+08:00 | 358.59761019229245 |
| 2026-04-20T20:09:19+08:00 | 380.77059428661863 |
| 2026-04-20T20:09:24+08:00 | 380.9230038775026 |
| 2026-04-20T20:09:34+08:00 | 383.1077787449553 |
| 2026-04-20T20:10:09+08:00 | 401.4982195141252 |
| 2026-04-20T22:08:28+08:00 | 401.83010208119015 |
| 2026-04-20T22:08:33+08:00 | 405.6087679037746 |
| 2026-04-20T22:08:58+08:00 | 423.2078816174725 |
| 2026-04-20T22:09:07+08:00 | 427.1790773126533 |
| 2026-04-20T22:09:33+08:00 | 442.73656722323335 |
| 2026-04-21T08:32:41+08:00 | 446.5026509456358 |
| 2026-04-21T08:33:39+08:00 | 446.5026509456358 |
| 2026-04-21T08:33:55+08:00 | 458.7664793859302 |
| 2026-04-21T08:34:12+08:00 | 544.7837303157395 |
| 2026-04-21T09:03:01+08:00 | 544.8110310991533 |
| 2026-04-21T09:03:46+08:00 | 546.883437524729 |
| 2026-04-21T09:03:54+08:00 | 548.9488011395109 |
| 2026-04-21T09:04:44+08:00 | 556.9407296035452 |
| 2026-04-21T09:05:17+08:00 | 579.7151222600301 |
| 2026-04-21T09:16:20+08:00 | 585.2544116483342 |
| 2026-04-21T10:12:40+08:00 | 585.5172113634566 |
| 2026-04-21T10:13:20+08:00 | 592.5751365039171 |
| 2026-04-21T10:13:40+08:00 | 593.6818073909947 |
| 2026-04-21T10:14:08+08:00 | 635.8832792593179 |
| 2026-04-21T10:14:24+08:00 | 637.465933370262 |
| 2026-04-21T11:00:18+08:00 | 643.8618342961146 |
| 2026-04-21T11:01:31+08:00 | 644.3070348975232 |
| 2026-04-21T11:03:22+08:00 | 649.4254174250218 |
| 2026-04-21T11:05:24+08:00 | 684.354593653557 |
| 2026-04-21T11:51:09+08:00 | 689.1025559863891 |
| 2026-04-21T11:51:52+08:00 | 700.9724618184696 |
| 2026-04-21T12:11:15+08:00 | 701.0354514520851 |
| 2026-04-21T12:11:41+08:00 | 701.5791722719 |
| 2026-04-21T12:12:24+08:00 | 728.3418532879639 |
| 2026-04-21T12:13:08+08:00 | 732.2710295164992 |
| 2026-04-21T13:42:06+08:00 | 732.298330299913 |
| 2026-04-21T13:43:26+08:00 | 732.7481997309488 |
| 2026-04-21T13:43:50+08:00 | 753.7183667009575 |
| 2026-04-21T13:44:13+08:00 | 757.3921025559864 |
| 2026-04-21T14:00:49+08:00 | 757.4337263591042 |
| 2026-04-21T14:01:11+08:00 | 757.9108965735538 |
| 2026-04-21T14:01:49+08:00 | 768.1124475745826 |
| 2026-04-21T14:03:40+08:00 | 773.4728970483501 |
| 2026-04-21T14:14:06+08:00 | 804.026034660125 |
| 2026-04-21T15:05:11+08:00 | 804.0533354435388 |
| 2026-04-21T15:06:22+08:00 | 830.8001899184933 |
| 2026-04-21T15:06:39+08:00 | 831.4213025243333 |
| 2026-04-21T15:07:17+08:00 | 835.3688375405555 |
| 2026-04-21T16:18:56+08:00 | 840.068687188415 |
| 2026-04-21T16:19:11+08:00 | 840.3854554087204 |
| 2026-04-21T16:20:14+08:00 | 928.7054680699533 |
| 2026-04-21T16:20:33+08:00 | 934.9709582970642 |
| 2026-04-21T16:20:46+08:00 | 936.5536124080082 |
| 2026-04-21T16:20:50+08:00 | 939.4815225132547 |
| 2026-04-21T16:21:54+08:00 | 975.0912400094959 |
| 2026-04-21T16:57:07+08:00 | 981.6592545699137 |
| 2026-04-21T17:00:36+08:00 | 981.7096621033473 |
| 2026-04-21T17:04:53+08:00 | 982.9273561763076 |
| 2026-04-21T17:05:35+08:00 | 1020.5728416554562 |
| 2026-04-21T17:06:21+08:00 | 1143.7508111102318 |
| 2026-04-21T17:39:14+08:00 | 1153.2467357758962 |
| 2026-04-21T18:04:17+08:00 | 1315.4687821476616 |
| 2026-04-21T18:04:47+08:00 | 1321.0080715359659 |
| 2026-04-21T18:05:03+08:00 | 1323.0565007517607 |
| 2026-04-21T18:05:50+08:00 | 1325.2790219197595 |
| 2026-04-21T18:06:13+08:00 | 1337.841497190789 |
| 2026-04-21T18:06:53+08:00 | 1388.1303315660361 |
| 2026-04-21T18:07:29+08:00 | 1412.3203291920552 |
| 2026-04-21T21:25:09+08:00 | 1412.6977921975151 |
| 2026-04-21T21:25:51+08:00 | 1415.2512463401124 |
| 2026-04-21T21:27:10+08:00 | 1431.9894753501621 |
| 2026-04-21T21:27:47+08:00 | 1505.0843554641133 |
| 2026-04-21T21:28:02+08:00 | 1535.3526153359182 |
| 2026-04-21T22:09:38+08:00 | 1541.6582258447415 |
| 2026-04-21T22:10:20+08:00 | 1575.9464271583445 |
| 2026-04-22T08:31:47+08:00 | 1729.1869114505025 |
| 2026-04-22T08:33:47+08:00 | 1734.4942628788478 |
| 2026-04-22T08:33:55+08:00 | 1750.8522592387433 |
| 2026-04-22T08:34:58+08:00 | 1750.8522592387433 |
| 2026-04-22T09:08:38+08:00 | 1759.0029279101052 |
| 2026-04-22T09:08:48+08:00 | 1760.1054838964944 |
| 2026-04-22T09:09:48+08:00 | 1764.4826303711325 |
| 2026-04-22T09:10:15+08:00 | 1770.272453905199 |
| 2026-04-22T09:11:00+08:00 | 1812.6717575373902 |
| 2026-04-22T09:11:31+08:00 | 1830.8118224262087 |
| 2026-04-22T10:18:05+08:00 | 1831.1829548152252 |
| 2026-04-22T10:18:56+08:00 | 1834.522196723906 |
| 2026-04-22T10:20:09+08:00 | 1843.1199651816096 |
| 2026-04-22T10:20:28+08:00 | 1918.7391786025164 |
| 2026-04-22T11:01:33+08:00 | 1934.3681253462055 |
| 2026-04-22T11:03:11+08:00 | 1942.5979267231146 |
| 2026-04-22T11:03:40+08:00 | 1945.4383951887314 |
| 2026-04-22T11:04:35+08:00 | 1955.093851388779 |
| 2026-04-22T11:05:51+08:00 | 2024.5248872358945 |
| 2026-04-22T12:11:53+08:00 | 2025.4679116879006 |
| 2026-04-22T12:12:36+08:00 | 2032.623011790773 |
| 2026-04-22T12:13:08+08:00 | 2033.835878768695 |
| 2026-04-22T12:14:10+08:00 | 2088.4770119490386 |
| 2026-04-22T13:46:11+08:00 | 2089.002057450344 |
| 2026-04-22T13:46:44+08:00 | 2094.2328875524254 |
| 2026-04-22T13:47:24+08:00 | 2094.87560338688 |
| 2026-04-22T13:47:51+08:00 | 2133.3340982828204 |
| 2026-04-22T14:07:49+08:00 | 2134.2040832476064 |
| 2026-04-22T14:08:14+08:00 | 2135.0530189127167 |
| 2026-04-22T14:09:01+08:00 | 2185.563424863496 |
| 2026-04-22T14:10:02+08:00 | 2194.4050011869904 |
| 2026-04-22T14:10:22+08:00 | 2200.893883041861 |
| 2026-04-22T14:10:59+08:00 | 2222.0838015351746 |
| 2026-04-22T15:10:53+08:00 | 2223.159215003561 |
| 2026-04-22T15:11:19+08:00 | 2224.1627759753105 |
| 2026-04-22T15:12:26+08:00 | 2277.529872596344 |
| 2026-04-22T15:12:49+08:00 | 2285.422885178444 |
| 2026-04-22T16:05:16+08:00 | 2285.9290970958295 |
| 2026-04-22T16:05:35+08:00 | 2286.977130648097 |
| 2026-04-22T16:06:35+08:00 | 2295.3760386167605 |
| 2026-04-22T16:07:10+08:00 | 2361.412281395901 |
| 2026-04-22T16:38:00+08:00 | 2377.2388225053414 |
| 2026-04-22T17:10:41+08:00 | 2378.412043997784 |
| 2026-04-22T17:11:06+08:00 | 2378.511197277835 |
| 2026-04-22T17:12:24+08:00 | 2392.315422964311 |
| 2026-04-22T17:13:11+08:00 | 2491.2075650866504 |
| 2026-04-22T17:27:19+08:00 | 2807.738387275461 |
| 2026-04-22T17:43:46+08:00 | 2816.2847194745586 |
| 2026-04-22T18:04:32+08:00 | 2817.5153121785233 |
| 2026-04-22T18:04:58+08:00 | 2830.9678721215478 |
| 2026-04-22T18:05:24+08:00 | 2831.784125979267 |
| 2026-04-22T18:05:30+08:00 | 2840.188177573791 |
| 2026-04-22T18:06:19+08:00 | 2913.599588509931 |
| 2026-04-22T18:07:45+08:00 | 2946.835324839756 |
| 2026-04-22T18:11:08+08:00 | 2969.363377383873 |
| 2026-04-22T20:57:26+08:00 | 2969.960671045343 |
| 2026-04-22T20:58:03+08:00 | 2971.4489989712747 |
| 2026-04-22T20:59:23+08:00 | 2992.9632032919208 |
| 2026-04-22T20:59:47+08:00 | 3109.494025480731 |
| 2026-04-22T21:03:53+08:00 | 3110.3177969454778 |
| 2026-04-22T21:04:13+08:00 | 3120.0834850043525 |
| 2026-04-22T21:05:16+08:00 | 3183.7457466170767 |
| 2026-04-22T22:03:57+08:00 | 3199.311545461739 |
| 2026-04-22T22:05:54+08:00 | 3266.8908759990504 |
| 2026-04-23T08:39:41+08:00 | 3279.525995093772 |
| 2026-04-23T08:39:50+08:00 | 3343.4380786579095 |
| 2026-04-23T08:40:14+08:00 | 3779.546332199098 |
| 2026-04-23T08:40:35+08:00 | 3779.546332199098 |
| 2026-04-23T09:05:13+08:00 | 3783.023581546253 |
| 2026-04-23T09:06:00+08:00 | 3795.7356176307667 |
| 2026-04-23T09:06:54+08:00 | 3801.5899343198544 |
| 2026-04-23T09:07:21+08:00 | 3958.241038221097 |
| 2026-04-23T09:09:08+08:00 | 3996.848619134288 |
| 2026-04-23T09:10:22+08:00 | 4010.3011790773126 |
| 2026-04-23T10:06:09+08:00 | 4026.087362506924 |
| 2026-04-23T10:06:44+08:00 | 4335.599113713698 |
| 2026-04-23T11:32:30+08:00 | 4552.280288043048 |
| 2026-04-23T16:57:49+08:00 | 4583.284482076442 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 5784.7x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.512, 乙组 α=0.612) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
曦智科技中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
18C特专科技
《主板规则》第18C章，为特专科技公司设立。机制A及机制B不适用。初订分配份额为5%，回补门槛：10倍至不足50倍→10%，50倍或以上→20%。根据第18C.08条，发售股份总数中至少50%须由配售部分的独立定价投资者认购。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 曦智科技（01879）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
