遇见小面 02408
新股中签预测
3.8400.26%( +0.010 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
132.7亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
34.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
26.0亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
13.6亿 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
4.5亿 |
| 6 |  信诚 |
1.5亿 |
| 8 |  盈立 |
8522万 |
| 9 |  长桥 |
8299万 |
| 10 | 卓锐证券 | 7236万 |
| 11 |  TradeGo |
6371万 |
| 12 |  盈宝 |
1938万 |
| 13 |  Funderstone |
1281万 |
| 14 |  艾德 |
421万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-27T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-11-27T10:04:17+08:00 | 0.0415815582141815 |
| 2025-11-27T10:05:04+08:00 | 0.14881820834549167 |
| 2025-11-27T10:06:03+08:00 | 0.20717829004960606 |
| 2025-11-27T11:10:22+08:00 | 0.24803034724248613 |
| 2025-11-27T11:10:50+08:00 | 0.5427487598482638 |
| 2025-11-27T11:11:54+08:00 | 2.206011088415524 |
| 2025-11-27T12:11:39+08:00 | 2.2127224978114968 |
| 2025-11-27T12:12:02+08:00 | 2.6936095710533996 |
| 2025-11-27T12:12:34+08:00 | 2.6415231981324774 |
| 2025-11-27T12:13:07+08:00 | 3.6044645462503646 |
| 2025-11-27T13:52:40+08:00 | 3.6359789903705866 |
| 2025-11-27T13:53:38+08:00 | 3.6603443244820544 |
| 2025-11-27T13:54:10+08:00 | 3.664137729792822 |
| 2025-11-27T13:54:47+08:00 | 3.751677852348993 |
| 2025-11-27T13:55:13+08:00 | 3.8975780566092793 |
| 2025-11-27T14:16:04+08:00 | 3.825941056317479 |
| 2025-11-27T14:16:34+08:00 | 3.8557046979865772 |
| 2025-11-27T14:17:31+08:00 | 3.868835716370003 |
| 2025-11-27T14:18:45+08:00 | 3.8834257367960316 |
| 2025-11-27T14:19:41+08:00 | 4.3708783192296465 |
| 2025-11-27T15:10:33+08:00 | 4.3873650423110595 |
| 2025-11-27T15:10:51+08:00 | 4.4400350160490225 |
| 2025-11-27T15:11:35+08:00 | 4.451123431572804 |
| 2025-11-27T15:12:10+08:00 | 4.830463962649548 |
| 2025-11-27T16:18:35+08:00 | 4.84184417858185 |
| 2025-11-27T16:19:47+08:00 | 4.873942223519113 |
| 2025-11-27T16:20:08+08:00 | 4.973154362416107 |
| 2025-11-27T16:21:05+08:00 | 5.4108549751969655 |
| 2025-11-27T16:32:20+08:00 | 5.848555587977823 |
| 2025-11-27T17:00:24+08:00 | 5.851035891450248 |
| 2025-11-27T17:03:30+08:00 | 6.585497519696528 |
| 2025-11-27T17:04:12+08:00 | 6.590458126641377 |
| 2025-11-27T17:06:27+08:00 | 7.217829004960607 |
| 2025-11-27T17:17:03+08:00 | 9.26043186460461 |
| 2025-11-27T18:02:03+08:00 | 9.263058068281296 |
| 2025-11-27T18:04:19+08:00 | 9.294572512401517 |
| 2025-11-27T18:04:24+08:00 | 9.304493726291216 |
| 2025-11-27T18:05:44+08:00 | 9.552524073533704 |
| 2025-11-27T18:14:01+08:00 | 9.859498103297344 |
| 2025-11-27T20:16:37+08:00 | 9.860373504522906 |
| 2025-11-27T20:16:43+08:00 | 10.105923548292967 |
| 2025-11-27T20:16:48+08:00 | 10.109133352786694 |
| 2025-11-27T20:17:29+08:00 | 10.488473883863437 |
| 2025-11-27T20:18:13+08:00 | 10.485701779982492 |
| 2025-11-27T20:18:23+08:00 | 10.502772103880945 |
| 2025-11-27T20:19:03+08:00 | 10.517362124306974 |
| 2025-11-27T21:26:39+08:00 | 10.518821126349577 |
| 2025-11-27T21:26:43+08:00 | 10.55077327108258 |
| 2025-11-27T21:27:22+08:00 | 11.367814414940181 |
| 2025-11-27T22:03:42+08:00 | 11.370294718412605 |
| 2025-11-27T22:03:47+08:00 | 11.370148818208346 |
| 2025-11-28T08:35:39+08:00 | 11.374525824336153 |
| 2025-11-28T08:35:42+08:00 | 11.400058360081704 |
| 2025-11-28T08:37:01+08:00 | 11.446746425444996 |
| 2025-11-28T08:37:04+08:00 | 11.446600525240735 |
| 2025-11-28T08:37:32+08:00 | 11.986431281003794 |
| 2025-11-28T08:39:39+08:00 | 11.986431281003794 |
| 2025-11-28T09:22:03+08:00 | 12.052232273125183 |
| 2025-11-28T09:22:52+08:00 | 12.051794572512401 |
| 2025-11-28T09:23:30+08:00 | 12.299824919754888 |
| 2025-11-28T09:23:50+08:00 | 12.302159323023051 |
| 2025-11-28T09:40:23+08:00 | 12.375109425153195 |
| 2025-11-28T09:43:54+08:00 | 12.763349868689817 |
| 2025-11-28T10:00:46+08:00 | 12.77064487890283 |
| 2025-11-28T10:06:50+08:00 | 12.753720455208637 |
| 2025-11-28T10:07:13+08:00 | 12.757513860519405 |
| 2025-11-28T10:07:48+08:00 | 13.005544207761892 |
| 2025-11-28T11:11:59+08:00 | 12.991537788152904 |
| 2025-11-28T11:12:54+08:00 | 12.996790195506273 |
| 2025-11-28T11:13:24+08:00 | 13.33236066530493 |
| 2025-11-28T11:13:48+08:00 | 13.287277502188504 |
| 2025-11-28T12:06:25+08:00 | 13.294718412605778 |
| 2025-11-28T12:07:02+08:00 | 13.34184417858185 |
| 2025-11-28T12:07:33+08:00 | 13.370294718412605 |
| 2025-11-28T12:07:46+08:00 | 13.54537496352495 |
| 2025-11-28T13:45:01+08:00 | 13.546979865771812 |
| 2025-11-28T13:45:26+08:00 | 13.548730668222936 |
| 2025-11-28T13:45:46+08:00 | 13.967901955062738 |
| 2025-11-28T13:46:21+08:00 | 15.105923548292967 |
| 2025-11-28T14:01:47+08:00 | 15.11175955646338 |
| 2025-11-28T14:02:20+08:00 | 15.160490224686315 |
| 2025-11-28T14:04:35+08:00 | 15.293988911584476 |
| 2025-11-28T14:04:59+08:00 | 15.2964692150569 |
| 2025-11-28T14:05:38+08:00 | 15.456959439743216 |
| 2025-11-28T15:20:01+08:00 | 15.461774146483805 |
| 2025-11-28T15:20:21+08:00 | 15.473446162824628 |
| 2025-11-28T15:21:16+08:00 | 15.488036183250657 |
| 2025-11-28T15:21:47+08:00 | 15.692296469215057 |
| 2025-11-28T15:30:50+08:00 | 16.713597899037058 |
| 2025-11-28T16:09:24+08:00 | 16.772249781149693 |
| 2025-11-28T16:09:47+08:00 | 16.793697111175955 |
| 2025-11-28T16:10:29+08:00 | 16.805077327108258 |
| 2025-11-28T16:11:01+08:00 | 17.22818791946309 |
| 2025-11-28T17:08:41+08:00 | 17.231397723956814 |
| 2025-11-28T17:08:52+08:00 | 17.2454041435658 |
| 2025-11-28T17:09:28+08:00 | 17.315436241610737 |
| 2025-11-28T17:09:52+08:00 | 17.51969652757514 |
| 2025-11-28T17:43:59+08:00 | 18.395097753136856 |
| 2025-11-28T18:03:11+08:00 | 18.396410854975198 |
| 2025-11-28T18:03:22+08:00 | 18.40822877152028 |
| 2025-11-28T18:03:25+08:00 | 18.409541873358624 |
| 2025-11-28T18:06:09+08:00 | 18.72468631456084 |
| 2025-11-28T18:06:17+08:00 | 19.14779690691567 |
| 2025-11-28T21:04:05+08:00 | 19.16939013714619 |
| 2025-11-28T21:04:28+08:00 | 19.169827837758973 |
| 2025-11-28T21:04:36+08:00 | 19.170557338780274 |
| 2025-11-28T21:05:38+08:00 | 19.374817624744676 |
| 2025-11-28T21:05:51+08:00 | 19.375401225561717 |
| 2025-11-28T21:05:55+08:00 | 19.448205427487597 |
| 2025-11-28T21:06:39+08:00 | 19.404435366209512 |
| 2025-11-28T21:06:46+08:00 | 19.40458126641377 |
| 2025-11-28T21:07:28+08:00 | 19.740151736212432 |
| 2025-11-28T22:08:15+08:00 | 19.82594105631748 |
| 2025-11-28T22:08:40+08:00 | 19.79676101546542 |
| 2025-11-29T07:20:24+08:00 | 19.84271957980741 |
| 2025-11-29T07:21:26+08:00 | 19.84271957980741 |
| 2025-11-29T07:21:38+08:00 | 19.994163991829588 |
| 2025-11-29T07:21:50+08:00 | 20.003501604902247 |
| 2025-11-29T09:22:54+08:00 | 19.82710825795156 |
| 2025-11-29T09:23:54+08:00 | 21.592500729501023 |
| 2025-11-29T09:24:17+08:00 | 21.80595272833382 |
| 2025-11-29T09:24:52+08:00 | 21.812226437117012 |
| 2025-11-29T09:24:59+08:00 | 21.817916545083165 |
| 2025-11-29T09:25:35+08:00 | 22.095126933177706 |
| 2025-11-29T10:44:41+08:00 | 22.095564633790488 |
| 2025-11-29T10:44:56+08:00 | 22.115844762182668 |
| 2025-11-29T10:45:01+08:00 | 22.237233732127226 |
| 2025-11-29T10:45:33+08:00 | 22.251823752553253 |
| 2025-11-29T11:16:49+08:00 | 22.252115552961776 |
| 2025-11-29T11:17:01+08:00 | 22.256784359498102 |
| 2025-11-29T11:17:06+08:00 | 22.256930259702365 |
| 2025-11-29T11:17:33+08:00 | 22.271520280128392 |
| 2025-11-29T12:23:28+08:00 | 22.272103880945433 |
| 2025-11-29T12:23:42+08:00 | 22.27633498686898 |
| 2025-11-29T12:23:45+08:00 | 22.782170995039394 |
| 2025-11-29T12:24:18+08:00 | 22.92807119929968 |
| 2025-11-29T15:56:17+08:00 | 22.834695068573097 |
| 2025-11-29T15:57:04+08:00 | 22.853370294718413 |
| 2025-11-29T15:57:10+08:00 | 22.860811205135686 |
| 2025-11-29T15:57:39+08:00 | 22.875401225561717 |
| 2025-11-29T15:57:53+08:00 | 22.8780274292384 |
| 2025-11-29T15:58:06+08:00 | 22.784651298511818 |
| 2025-11-29T15:58:09+08:00 | 22.784943098920337 |
| 2025-11-29T19:02:13+08:00 | 22.840968777356288 |
| 2025-11-29T19:02:20+08:00 | 22.8460752845054 |
| 2025-11-29T19:02:55+08:00 | 22.996352494893493 |
| 2025-11-29T19:03:00+08:00 | 23.07265830172162 |
| 2025-11-29T19:03:51+08:00 | 23.145608403851764 |
| 2025-11-29T19:04:12+08:00 | 23.145754304056027 |
| 2025-11-29T19:04:55+08:00 | 23.147213306098628 |
| 2025-11-29T19:05:18+08:00 | 23.088853224394516 |
| 2025-11-29T19:05:29+08:00 | 23.092500729501023 |
| 2025-11-29T19:05:54+08:00 | 23.10709074992705 |
| 2025-11-29T20:21:19+08:00 | 23.110446454625038 |
| 2025-11-29T20:21:27+08:00 | 23.11190545666764 |
| 2025-11-29T21:25:42+08:00 | 23.130580682812955 |
| 2025-11-29T21:26:09+08:00 | 23.320250948351326 |
| 2025-11-29T22:09:43+08:00 | 23.320834549168367 |
| 2025-11-29T22:11:03+08:00 | 23.481324773854684 |
| 2025-11-30T10:35:52+08:00 | 23.40793697111176 |
| 2025-11-30T10:37:43+08:00 | 22.864750510650715 |
| 2025-11-30T10:40:47+08:00 | 22.87219142106799 |
| 2025-11-30T10:40:51+08:00 | 22.87277502188503 |
| 2025-11-30T10:42:21+08:00 | 23.179165450831633 |
| 2025-11-30T10:42:26+08:00 | 23.38342573679603 |
| 2025-11-30T10:42:30+08:00 | 23.456375838926174 |
| 2025-11-30T12:31:26+08:00 | 23.457397140355997 |
| 2025-11-30T12:31:42+08:00 | 23.458126641377298 |
| 2025-11-30T12:32:26+08:00 | 23.476801867522614 |
| 2025-11-30T12:32:38+08:00 | 23.478114969360956 |
| 2025-11-30T12:33:37+08:00 | 23.47971987160782 |
| 2025-11-30T12:33:50+08:00 | 23.512401517362125 |
| 2025-11-30T12:35:00+08:00 | 23.541581558214183 |
| 2025-11-30T12:35:08+08:00 | 23.570761599066238 |
| 2025-11-30T17:23:14+08:00 | 23.5709074992705 |
| 2025-11-30T17:23:18+08:00 | 23.578640210096292 |
| 2025-11-30T17:23:22+08:00 | 23.58593522030931 |
| 2025-11-30T17:23:27+08:00 | 23.587102421943392 |
| 2025-11-30T17:26:45+08:00 | 23.588561423985993 |
| 2025-11-30T17:26:50+08:00 | 23.589290925007294 |
| 2025-11-30T17:26:55+08:00 | 23.59162532827546 |
| 2025-11-30T17:27:00+08:00 | 23.593959731543624 |
| 2025-11-30T17:27:05+08:00 | 23.59614823460753 |
| 2025-11-30T17:28:19+08:00 | 23.69827837758973 |
| 2025-11-30T17:28:22+08:00 | 23.77122847971987 |
| 2025-11-30T17:28:27+08:00 | 23.858768602276044 |
| 2025-11-30T17:28:31+08:00 | 23.917128683980156 |
| 2025-11-30T17:28:35+08:00 | 24.048438867814415 |
| 2025-11-30T17:30:40+08:00 | 24.073679603151444 |
| 2025-11-30T17:30:44+08:00 | 24.073825503355703 |
| 2025-11-30T22:07:31+08:00 | 24.064779690691566 |
| 2025-11-30T22:07:35+08:00 | 24.067551794572513 |
| 2025-11-30T22:07:39+08:00 | 24.039538955354537 |
| 2025-11-30T22:07:43+08:00 | 24.034870148818207 |
| 2025-11-30T22:09:44+08:00 | 24.03501604902247 |
| 2025-11-30T22:09:48+08:00 | 23.542456959439743 |
| 2025-11-30T22:09:52+08:00 | 23.595126933177706 |
| 2025-11-30T22:09:56+08:00 | 23.595564633790488 |
| 2025-11-30T22:11:40+08:00 | 23.599649839509777 |
| 2025-11-30T22:11:43+08:00 | 23.599795739714036 |
| 2025-11-30T22:13:39+08:00 | 23.64356580099212 |
| 2025-11-30T22:13:44+08:00 | 23.99372629121681 |
| 2025-11-30T22:13:48+08:00 | 24.89830755763058 |
| 2025-11-30T22:13:52+08:00 | 24.92748759848264 |
| 2025-11-30T22:13:56+08:00 | 24.956667639334697 |
| 2025-12-01T08:45:48+08:00 | 24.94776772687482 |
| 2025-12-01T08:46:03+08:00 | 25.06696819375547 |
| 2025-12-01T08:47:06+08:00 | 25.03516194922673 |
| 2025-12-01T08:47:11+08:00 | 24.9801575722206 |
| 2025-12-01T08:48:03+08:00 | 25.19900787861103 |
| 2025-12-01T08:48:28+08:00 | 25.19900787861103 |
| 2025-12-01T09:07:05+08:00 | 25.20936679311351 |
| 2025-12-01T09:07:23+08:00 | 25.574117303764226 |
| 2025-12-01T09:07:44+08:00 | 25.58739422235191 |
| 2025-12-01T09:08:14+08:00 | 25.591187627662677 |
| 2025-12-01T09:08:37+08:00 | 25.926758097461338 |
| 2025-12-01T09:14:51+08:00 | 26.138459293843013 |
| 2025-12-01T10:12:13+08:00 | 26.201488182083455 |
| 2025-12-01T10:12:31+08:00 | 26.142544499562298 |
| 2025-12-01T10:13:24+08:00 | 27.003355704697988 |
| 2025-12-01T10:13:47+08:00 | 26.981616574263203 |
| 2025-12-01T11:11:08+08:00 | 27.339655675517946 |
| 2025-12-01T11:11:42+08:00 | 27.16253282754596 |
| 2025-12-01T11:12:07+08:00 | 28.18383425736796 |
| 2025-12-01T11:12:28+08:00 | 28.22366501313102 |
| 2025-12-01T12:03:54+08:00 | 28.356142398599356 |
| 2025-12-01T12:04:25+08:00 | 28.403559964983952 |
| 2025-12-01T12:05:03+08:00 | 28.428508899912458 |
| 2025-12-01T12:05:32+08:00 | 29.960461044645463 |
| 2025-12-01T13:44:48+08:00 | 30.05164867230814 |
| 2025-12-01T13:45:14+08:00 | 30.062007586810623 |
| 2025-12-01T13:45:43+08:00 | 30.83527866939014 |
| 2025-12-01T13:47:30+08:00 | 31.41887948643128 |
| 2025-12-01T13:47:51+08:00 | 31.426758097461338 |
| 2025-12-01T14:02:21+08:00 | 31.51561132185585 |
| 2025-12-01T14:04:04+08:00 | 31.91464838050773 |
| 2025-12-01T14:04:42+08:00 | 31.84709658593522 |
| 2025-12-01T14:05:02+08:00 | 31.952728333819667 |
| 2025-12-01T14:05:33+08:00 | 34.22877152028013 |
| 2025-12-01T14:20:47+08:00 | 34.95827254158156 |
| 2025-12-01T15:15:50+08:00 | 34.97067405894368 |
| 2025-12-01T15:16:19+08:00 | 35.30668222935512 |
| 2025-12-01T15:16:41+08:00 | 35.34403268164576 |
| 2025-12-01T15:17:35+08:00 | 37.98482637875693 |
| 2025-12-01T16:31:04+08:00 | 41.35468339655676 |
| 2025-12-01T16:31:56+08:00 | 43.70367668514736 |
| 2025-12-01T17:23:03+08:00 | 46.813393638751094 |
| 2025-12-01T17:23:56+08:00 | 72.6814998540998 |
| 2025-12-01T17:59:33+08:00 | 85.81251823752554 |
| 2025-12-01T18:04:25+08:00 | 86.86825211555296 |
| 2025-12-01T18:04:47+08:00 | 88.73212722497811 |
| 2025-12-01T18:06:12+08:00 | 105.84622118470966 |
| 2025-12-01T18:08:56+08:00 | 109.27691858768603 |
| 2025-12-01T19:44:43+08:00 | 111.02772103880946 |
| 2025-12-01T19:45:37+08:00 | 114.08739422235192 |
| 2025-12-01T19:46:03+08:00 | 124.66515903122264 |
| 2025-12-01T20:08:42+08:00 | 126.35555879778232 |
| 2025-12-01T20:09:17+08:00 | 136.77283338196673 |
| 2025-12-01T21:35:52+08:00 | 139.55996498395098 |
| 2025-12-01T21:36:18+08:00 | 143.63058068281296 |
| 2025-12-01T22:03:39+08:00 | 149.06623869273417 |
| 2025-12-01T22:08:24+08:00 | 161.55529617741465 |
| 2025-12-02T08:54:43+08:00 | 164.30391012547418 |
| 2025-12-02T08:54:55+08:00 | 172.36825211555296 |
| 2025-12-02T08:55:20+08:00 | 239.70119638167495 |
| 2025-12-02T08:56:23+08:00 | 239.70119638167495 |
| 2025-12-02T09:05:16+08:00 | 241.56215348701488 |
| 2025-12-02T09:05:49+08:00 | 259.9018091625328 |
| 2025-12-02T09:07:17+08:00 | 274.2143274000584 |
| 2025-12-02T09:27:03+08:00 | 277.8910125474176 |
| 2025-12-02T09:32:01+08:00 | 305.6120513568719 |
| 2025-12-02T10:23:24+08:00 | 307.4744674642545 |
| 2025-12-02T17:16:42+08:00 | 313.31047563466586 |
| 2025-12-02T17:27:07+08:00 | 314.74 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 425.97x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.540, 乙组 α=0.640) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
遇见小面中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 遇见小面（02408）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
