智谱 02513中签预测

智谱(02513)中签预测
发售机制: 18C特专科技 | 最低申购: HK$11,620  |  公开发售手数: 甲组 9,355手 / 乙组 9,355手  |  招股价: HK$116.20  |  每手: 100股  |  公开发售募资: HK$2.17亿
1x4599.0x
近期首日表现
-0.2%
→
参与人数
22,692
→
人均手数
94.3
→
认购倍数
114x
114x = 22,692 × 94.3 ÷ 18,710 孖展加权 100% → 1073.1x
孖展动态 · 2026-01-05 22:12 孖展倍数909.41x 孖展资金1977.2亿 捷利预测倍数1073.11x
排名 券商 孖展资金
1 富途证券富途 1362.6亿
2 辉立证券辉立 300.0亿
3 老虎国际老虎 187.7亿
4 华泰国际华泰 64.7亿
5 华盛证券华盛 25.1亿
6 盈立证券盈立 13.1亿
7 长桥证券长桥 12.0亿
8 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 5.2亿
9 信诚证券信诚 3.0亿
孖展倍数
时间倍数
2025-12-30T06:00:00+08:000
2025-12-30T10:03:09+08:000.022998022170093373
2025-12-30T10:03:21+08:000.09590175244928936
2025-12-30T10:03:37+08:000.1353203624488294
2025-12-30T10:06:59+08:000.48029069500023
2025-12-30T11:16:05+08:000.4991490731797065
2025-12-30T11:16:28+08:000.6158410376707603
2025-12-30T11:16:47+08:001.0296674485994204
2025-12-30T11:17:09+08:002.119773699461846
2025-12-30T11:17:30+08:002.1680695460190424
2025-12-30T12:14:40+08:002.1956671726231543
2025-12-30T12:15:15+08:002.31530288395198
2025-12-30T12:15:39+08:003.304217837265995
2025-12-30T12:15:53+08:003.5293684743112093
2025-12-30T13:48:54+08:003.5390276436226484
2025-12-30T13:49:34+08:003.742790120049676
2025-12-30T13:49:56+08:006.129984821305368
2025-12-30T13:50:15+08:006.286049399751621
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2025-12-30T14:02:06+08:006.364104686996918
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2025-12-30T14:08:27+08:008.058828940711098
2025-12-30T15:04:02+08:008.05919690906582
2025-12-30T15:04:16+08:008.064348466031921
2025-12-30T15:04:43+08:008.172209190009658
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2025-12-30T16:10:55+08:009.720620026677706
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2025-12-30T17:12:40+08:0011.421001793845729
2025-12-30T17:12:51+08:0011.461524308909434
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2025-12-30T20:47:01+08:0034.99760820569431
2025-12-30T20:47:24+08:0037.46759578676234
2025-12-30T20:47:45+08:0037.4677797709397
2025-12-30T20:48:00+08:0037.46782576698404
2025-12-30T21:39:53+08:0037.92866013522837
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2025-12-31T10:05:52+08:0063.14037992732625
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2025-12-31T11:02:55+08:0064.64744032013247
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2025-12-31T14:26:30+08:0076.93049997700197
2025-12-31T14:26:36+08:0078.26447725495608
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2025-12-31T14:26:55+08:0080.72747343728439
2025-12-31T14:28:54+08:0081.14143783634607
2025-12-31T14:33:04+08:0082.92401453475001
2025-12-31T14:34:41+08:0083.01674256013983
2025-12-31T15:29:16+08:0083.01711052849456
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2025-12-31T15:29:47+08:0093.71735430752955
2025-12-31T16:22:36+08:0096.01715652453889
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2025-12-31T16:33:40+08:00103.39211627800009
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2025-12-31T22:12:42+08:00119.96214525550802
2025-12-31T22:12:52+08:00120.38875856676326
2025-12-31T22:13:37+08:00120.38843659445288
2025-12-31T22:14:00+08:00123.34598224552688
2026-01-01T09:20:21+08:00122.97134446437606
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2026-01-01T09:27:39+08:00135.10514695736165
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2026-01-01T20:36:40+08:00147.30334391242354
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捷利预测倍数
时间倍数
券商孖展资金走势
时间券商孖展资金
甲组 α=
分配手法系数 α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.52
乙组 α=
分配手法系数 α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.62
此模型不适用分配手法调节

实际 vs 预测 对比

以实际认购倍数 1159.46x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.516, 乙组 α=0.616) 为基准,对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数

申购手数 认购金额(HKD) 实际期望中签 预测期望中签 偏差

Logo智谱中签预测矩阵

行为申购档位,列为不同认购倍数,数值为期望中签手数,绿色背景表示稳中(≥1手)

甲组

认购倍数
1073.1x
分配手法
α=
分配手法系数 α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.52

乙组

认购倍数
1073.1x
分配手法
α=
分配手法系数 α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.62
发售机制说明

18C特专科技

《主板规则》第18C章,为特专科技公司设立。机制A及机制B不适用。初订分配份额为5%,回补门槛:10倍至不足50倍→10%,50倍或以上→20%。根据第18C.08条,发售股份总数中至少50%须由配售部分的独立定价投资者认购。

分配手法系数 α

α 为发行人分配偏好系数,描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——无论申购多少手,每位中签者获配股数相同。对散户(小单申购)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——获配股数与申购手数成正比。对大额申购更有利。
  • 历史实际 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3–0.9,乙组 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差异较大,反映发行人各自的分配策略。
中签率定义

本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致:中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径,与其他网站可能使用的不同定义(如「申购人数中签比例」)有本质区别。

期望中签手数

期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数

例:某档位获配总股数 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

// 关于本页 //

本页展示 智谱(02513)的中签预测:基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导,公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数;其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准,再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准;随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权;临近截止(进度约九成后)默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 356 只 IPO 的 10897 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配,估计各申购档位的期望中签手数,并结合分配手法系数 α(人均分配至比例分配)给出区间。
数据来源:港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告;孖展数据(孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细)来自捷利交易宝(TradeGo),倍数仅覆盖已上报券商,捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新;中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。

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数据来源:本页面数据来源于港交所披露易等机构公开披露的文件。相关机构不对该等数据的准确性、及时性或完整性作任何保证,亦不对基于该数据所作的分析结论背书。

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Cibo — 港股IPO中签率预测、中签画像与入通分析