首钢朗泽 02553
新股中签预测
10.91011.08%( -1.360 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
448.5亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
161.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
74.6亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
28.4亿 |
| 5 |  盈立 |
15.7亿 |
| 6 |  华盛 |
12.1亿 |
| 7 |  致富 |
11.8亿 |
| 8 |  复星 |
11.1亿 |
| 9 |  熊猫 |
5.0亿 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-05-26T09:10:01+08:00 | 0.04736842105263158 |
| 2026-05-26T10:05:18+08:00 | 0.11345029239766082 |
| 2026-05-26T10:05:45+08:00 | 0.1280701754385965 |
| 2026-05-26T10:59:48+08:00 | 0.20116959064327486 |
| 2026-05-26T11:15:46+08:00 | 0.1554093567251462 |
| 2026-05-26T11:15:53+08:00 | 0.3912280701754386 |
| 2026-05-26T11:16:06+08:00 | 0.39956140350877195 |
| 2026-05-26T11:16:12+08:00 | 1.4814327485380117 |
| 2026-05-26T12:03:29+08:00 | 1.7141812865497077 |
| 2026-05-26T12:03:40+08:00 | 1.7662280701754387 |
| 2026-05-26T12:04:05+08:00 | 1.8447368421052632 |
| 2026-05-26T12:04:15+08:00 | 1.938157894736842 |
| 2026-05-26T12:04:28+08:00 | 1.9652046783625732 |
| 2026-05-26T12:08:28+08:00 | 2.2576023391812865 |
| 2026-05-26T13:39:10+08:00 | 2.3323099415204678 |
| 2026-05-26T13:39:13+08:00 | 2.389473684210526 |
| 2026-05-26T13:39:16+08:00 | 2.4046783625730996 |
| 2026-05-26T13:39:19+08:00 | 2.464619883040936 |
| 2026-05-26T13:39:22+08:00 | 2.4681286549707604 |
| 2026-05-26T13:39:25+08:00 | 2.965204678362573 |
| 2026-05-26T14:32:37+08:00 | 3.121637426900585 |
| 2026-05-26T14:32:42+08:00 | 3.2239766081871344 |
| 2026-05-26T14:32:48+08:00 | 3.300877192982456 |
| 2026-05-26T14:32:51+08:00 | 3.377485380116959 |
| 2026-05-26T14:32:53+08:00 | 3.4096491228070174 |
| 2026-05-26T14:32:56+08:00 | 3.482748538011696 |
| 2026-05-26T15:16:06+08:00 | 3.560672514619883 |
| 2026-05-26T15:16:13+08:00 | 3.5584795321637426 |
| 2026-05-26T15:16:21+08:00 | 3.5830409356725146 |
| 2026-05-26T15:16:23+08:00 | 3.672514619883041 |
| 2026-05-26T15:16:26+08:00 | 3.674122807017544 |
| 2026-05-26T15:16:29+08:00 | 3.8495614035087717 |
| 2026-05-26T16:07:51+08:00 | 3.8464912280701755 |
| 2026-05-26T16:08:03+08:00 | 3.8890350877192983 |
| 2026-05-26T16:08:06+08:00 | 3.982894736842105 |
| 2026-05-26T16:08:09+08:00 | 4.112573099415204 |
| 2026-05-26T16:08:12+08:00 | 4.129824561403509 |
| 2026-05-26T16:08:15+08:00 | 4.276023391812865 |
| 2026-05-26T17:16:48+08:00 | 4.304093567251462 |
| 2026-05-26T17:16:51+08:00 | 4.364766081871345 |
| 2026-05-26T17:16:54+08:00 | 4.715058479532164 |
| 2026-05-26T17:16:56+08:00 | 4.988157894736842 |
| 2026-05-26T17:17:02+08:00 | 4.98859649122807 |
| 2026-05-26T17:17:05+08:00 | 6.786842105263158 |
| 2026-05-26T18:01:01+08:00 | 6.802923976608187 |
| 2026-05-26T18:01:17+08:00 | 6.7292397660818715 |
| 2026-05-26T18:02:08+08:00 | 6.868567251461989 |
| 2026-05-26T18:07:07+08:00 | 7.397076023391813 |
| 2026-05-26T18:07:16+08:00 | 7.394883040935673 |
| 2026-05-26T18:07:26+08:00 | 7.39546783625731 |
| 2026-05-26T18:07:31+08:00 | 7.483187134502924 |
| 2026-05-26T20:00:03+08:00 | 10.407163742690058 |
| 2026-05-26T20:00:08+08:00 | 10.420029239766082 |
| 2026-05-26T20:00:13+08:00 | 10.430847953216375 |
| 2026-05-26T20:00:18+08:00 | 10.56374269005848 |
| 2026-05-26T20:00:23+08:00 | 10.726754385964913 |
| 2026-05-26T20:00:28+08:00 | 11.340789473684211 |
| 2026-05-26T20:00:33+08:00 | 11.34356725146199 |
| 2026-05-26T20:23:20+08:00 | 11.467397660818714 |
| 2026-05-26T20:23:25+08:00 | 11.506432748538012 |
| 2026-05-26T20:23:32+08:00 | 11.556432748538011 |
| 2026-05-26T20:23:37+08:00 | 11.606871345029239 |
| 2026-05-26T20:23:44+08:00 | 12.030847953216375 |
| 2026-05-26T21:38:11+08:00 | 12.039912280701754 |
| 2026-05-26T21:38:16+08:00 | 12.044298245614035 |
| 2026-05-26T21:38:20+08:00 | 12.071783625730994 |
| 2026-05-26T21:38:25+08:00 | 12.217982456140351 |
| 2026-05-26T22:03:09+08:00 | 12.237865497076024 |
| 2026-05-26T22:03:15+08:00 | 12.235380116959064 |
| 2026-05-26T22:05:43+08:00 | 12.254970760233919 |
| 2026-05-26T22:05:48+08:00 | 13.336842105263157 |
| 2026-05-27T08:36:14+08:00 | 13.533625730994151 |
| 2026-05-27T08:36:34+08:00 | 13.533625730994151 |
| 2026-05-27T08:36:43+08:00 | 13.697222222222223 |
| 2026-05-27T08:36:53+08:00 | 13.698830409356725 |
| 2026-05-27T08:36:59+08:00 | 13.700438596491228 |
| 2026-05-27T08:37:06+08:00 | 18.13026315789474 |
| 2026-05-27T09:19:51+08:00 | 18.230701754385965 |
| 2026-05-27T09:20:23+08:00 | 18.406432748538013 |
| 2026-05-27T09:20:46+08:00 | 18.409649122807018 |
| 2026-05-27T09:20:55+08:00 | 18.75482456140351 |
| 2026-05-27T09:21:02+08:00 | 18.756140350877192 |
| 2026-05-27T09:21:07+08:00 | 19.03391812865497 |
| 2026-05-27T09:21:13+08:00 | 19.297076023391813 |
| 2026-05-27T09:21:52+08:00 | 19.965350877192982 |
| 2026-05-27T10:12:18+08:00 | 20.033333333333335 |
| 2026-05-27T10:12:41+08:00 | 20.05950292397661 |
| 2026-05-27T10:12:45+08:00 | 20.19751461988304 |
| 2026-05-27T10:12:47+08:00 | 20.19795321637427 |
| 2026-05-27T10:12:54+08:00 | 21.572222222222223 |
| 2026-05-27T10:12:57+08:00 | 21.59809941520468 |
| 2026-05-27T11:06:29+08:00 | 21.603947368421053 |
| 2026-05-27T11:06:35+08:00 | 21.653508771929825 |
| 2026-05-27T11:06:38+08:00 | 21.8390350877193 |
| 2026-05-27T11:06:44+08:00 | 22.54108187134503 |
| 2026-05-27T11:06:47+08:00 | 24.222368421052632 |
| 2026-05-27T12:01:14+08:00 | 24.27529239766082 |
| 2026-05-27T12:01:22+08:00 | 24.393421052631577 |
| 2026-05-27T12:03:39+08:00 | 24.47529239766082 |
| 2026-05-27T12:10:54+08:00 | 25.001608187134504 |
| 2026-05-27T12:10:58+08:00 | 25.105994152046783 |
| 2026-05-27T13:45:25+08:00 | 25.123684210526317 |
| 2026-05-27T13:45:32+08:00 | 25.136549707602338 |
| 2026-05-27T13:45:37+08:00 | 25.148830409356727 |
| 2026-05-27T13:45:40+08:00 | 25.276169590643274 |
| 2026-05-27T13:45:46+08:00 | 26.6796783625731 |
| 2026-05-27T13:45:50+08:00 | 26.751315789473683 |
| 2026-05-27T14:07:16+08:00 | 26.773245614035087 |
| 2026-05-27T14:07:19+08:00 | 26.811988304093568 |
| 2026-05-27T14:07:22+08:00 | 26.905555555555555 |
| 2026-05-27T14:07:24+08:00 | 26.905847953216373 |
| 2026-05-27T14:07:30+08:00 | 26.907309941520467 |
| 2026-05-27T14:07:33+08:00 | 27.141228070175437 |
| 2026-05-27T14:08:02+08:00 | 28.249122807017542 |
| 2026-05-27T15:13:25+08:00 | 29.42719298245614 |
| 2026-05-27T15:13:37+08:00 | 29.48172514619883 |
| 2026-05-27T15:13:40+08:00 | 29.85409356725146 |
| 2026-05-27T15:13:42+08:00 | 29.92923976608187 |
| 2026-05-27T15:13:47+08:00 | 29.93786549707602 |
| 2026-05-27T15:13:50+08:00 | 32.291666666666664 |
| 2026-05-27T16:17:28+08:00 | 32.577777777777776 |
| 2026-05-27T16:17:37+08:00 | 32.60014619883041 |
| 2026-05-27T16:17:40+08:00 | 32.953216374269005 |
| 2026-05-27T16:17:45+08:00 | 32.95497076023392 |
| 2026-05-27T16:17:50+08:00 | 33.00921052631579 |
| 2026-05-27T16:17:53+08:00 | 34.25190058479532 |
| 2026-05-27T17:07:10+08:00 | 37.57426900584795 |
| 2026-05-27T17:07:13+08:00 | 39.7672514619883 |
| 2026-05-27T17:07:22+08:00 | 40.79634502923977 |
| 2026-05-27T17:07:51+08:00 | 48.09692982456141 |
| 2026-05-27T17:07:54+08:00 | 48.11608187134503 |
| 2026-05-27T17:07:59+08:00 | 73.40847953216374 |
| 2026-05-27T17:08:02+08:00 | 73.49195906432749 |
| 2026-05-27T17:23:07+08:00 | 75.24634502923976 |
| 2026-05-27T17:23:20+08:00 | 87.67324561403508 |
| 2026-05-27T18:04:23+08:00 | 91.1529239766082 |
| 2026-05-27T18:04:32+08:00 | 92.64561403508772 |
| 2026-05-27T18:04:42+08:00 | 94.02412280701755 |
| 2026-05-27T18:04:46+08:00 | 93.95570175438597 |
| 2026-05-27T18:05:55+08:00 | 97.8296783625731 |
| 2026-05-27T18:06:03+08:00 | 108.42909356725146 |
| 2026-05-27T19:58:16+08:00 | 109.51593567251462 |
| 2026-05-27T19:58:28+08:00 | 110.11535087719298 |
| 2026-05-27T19:58:32+08:00 | 110.70336257309941 |
| 2026-05-27T19:58:44+08:00 | 111.18640350877193 |
| 2026-05-27T19:58:48+08:00 | 112.54502923976608 |
| 2026-05-27T19:58:53+08:00 | 113.125 |
| 2026-05-27T19:58:58+08:00 | 120.94663742690058 |
| 2026-05-27T20:14:10+08:00 | 121.42631578947369 |
| 2026-05-27T20:14:16+08:00 | 123.07675438596492 |
| 2026-05-27T20:14:21+08:00 | 123.69766081871344 |
| 2026-05-27T20:14:30+08:00 | 124.36885964912281 |
| 2026-05-27T20:14:45+08:00 | 131.89809941520468 |
| 2026-05-27T21:35:37+08:00 | 132.40804093567252 |
| 2026-05-27T21:35:42+08:00 | 133.48859649122807 |
| 2026-05-27T21:35:46+08:00 | 133.8858187134503 |
| 2026-05-27T21:35:51+08:00 | 141.98523391812864 |
| 2026-05-27T21:35:56+08:00 | 142.44283625730995 |
| 2026-05-27T22:05:37+08:00 | 143.6576023391813 |
| 2026-05-27T22:05:43+08:00 | 143.73347953216376 |
| 2026-05-27T22:05:47+08:00 | 144.1187134502924 |
| 2026-05-27T22:05:52+08:00 | 149.08947368421053 |
| 2026-05-28T08:06:03+08:00 | 149.97704678362572 |
| 2026-05-28T08:06:07+08:00 | 150.3843567251462 |
| 2026-05-28T08:06:24+08:00 | 150.70497076023392 |
| 2026-05-28T08:06:30+08:00 | 153.4299707602339 |
| 2026-05-28T08:06:37+08:00 | 153.4299707602339 |
| 2026-05-28T08:06:48+08:00 | 177.26038011695906 |
| 2026-05-28T09:26:37+08:00 | 180.38377192982455 |
| 2026-05-28T09:26:52+08:00 | 181.7095029239766 |
| 2026-05-28T09:26:59+08:00 | 181.91681286549706 |
| 2026-05-28T09:27:06+08:00 | 183.6266081871345 |
| 2026-05-28T09:27:13+08:00 | 183.74415204678363 |
| 2026-05-28T09:27:20+08:00 | 185.2061403508772 |
| 2026-05-28T09:27:27+08:00 | 191.94590643274853 |
| 2026-05-28T10:06:17+08:00 | 192.50497076023393 |
| 2026-05-28T10:06:30+08:00 | 192.984649122807 |
| 2026-05-28T10:06:36+08:00 | 195.20526315789473 |
| 2026-05-28T10:06:42+08:00 | 195.20540935672514 |
| 2026-05-28T10:06:57+08:00 | 196.06608187134503 |
| 2026-05-28T10:07:06+08:00 | 208.9608187134503 |
| 2026-05-28T11:14:05+08:00 | 209.55672514619883 |
| 2026-05-28T11:18:39+08:00 | 212.81447368421053 |
| 2026-05-28T11:19:14+08:00 | 212.86213450292396 |
| 2026-05-28T11:19:46+08:00 | 224.61652046783627 |
| 2026-05-28T11:20:55+08:00 | 225.56593567251463 |
| 2026-05-28T11:21:19+08:00 | 225.71666666666667 |
| 2026-05-28T12:00:15+08:00 | 226.26988304093567 |
| 2026-05-28T12:01:45+08:00 | 226.55511695906432 |
| 2026-05-28T12:10:05+08:00 | 226.58040935672514 |
| 2026-05-28T12:10:48+08:00 | 227.643567251462 |
| 2026-05-28T12:11:37+08:00 | 236.6201754385965 |
| 2026-05-28T12:13:01+08:00 | 237.4796783625731 |
| 2026-05-28T13:42:35+08:00 | 237.68815789473683 |
| 2026-05-28T13:43:36+08:00 | 239.39342105263157 |
| 2026-05-28T13:43:57+08:00 | 239.43976608187134 |
| 2026-05-28T13:44:21+08:00 | 246.5011695906433 |
| 2026-05-28T13:45:22+08:00 | 246.7437134502924 |
| 2026-05-28T13:45:41+08:00 | 247.2672514619883 |
| 2026-05-28T13:49:32+08:00 | 249.16783625730994 |
| 2026-05-28T14:09:45+08:00 | 249.58786549707602 |
| 2026-05-28T14:10:51+08:00 | 250.48815789473684 |
| 2026-05-28T14:11:12+08:00 | 250.47733918128654 |
| 2026-05-28T14:11:39+08:00 | 257.43640350877195 |
| 2026-05-28T14:12:06+08:00 | 257.8156432748538 |
| 2026-05-28T14:12:55+08:00 | 258.12295321637424 |
| 2026-05-28T14:14:48+08:00 | 266.3877192982456 |
| 2026-05-28T15:14:54+08:00 | 269.14152046783624 |
| 2026-05-28T15:15:19+08:00 | 269.1919590643275 |
| 2026-05-28T15:16:09+08:00 | 269.937134502924 |
| 2026-05-28T15:16:38+08:00 | 270.33464912280704 |
| 2026-05-28T15:17:19+08:00 | 271.1043859649123 |
| 2026-05-28T15:17:47+08:00 | 282.3470760233918 |
| 2026-05-28T16:15:08+08:00 | 282.65745614035086 |
| 2026-05-28T16:17:27+08:00 | 282.83187134502924 |
| 2026-05-28T16:17:51+08:00 | 284.67748538011693 |
| 2026-05-28T16:18:20+08:00 | 285.2141812865497 |
| 2026-05-28T16:19:16+08:00 | 285.3421052631579 |
| 2026-05-28T16:19:43+08:00 | 297.1842105263158 |
| 2026-05-28T16:44:46+08:00 | 298.5 |
| 2026-05-28T17:05:04+08:00 | 298.8377192982456 |
| 2026-05-28T17:05:42+08:00 | 306.7498538011696 |
| 2026-05-28T17:06:14+08:00 | 307.25380116959064 |
| 2026-05-28T17:06:46+08:00 | 308.1352339181287 |
| 2026-05-28T17:07:27+08:00 | 339.10014619883043 |
| 2026-05-28T17:07:51+08:00 | 340.2359649122807 |
| 2026-05-28T17:26:46+08:00 | 395.06052631578945 |
| 2026-05-28T18:00:56+08:00 | 396.37631578947367 |
| 2026-05-28T18:01:08+08:00 | 396.75847953216373 |
| 2026-05-28T18:02:31+08:00 | 397.27412280701753 |
| 2026-05-28T18:05:24+08:00 | 403.83391812865494 |
| 2026-05-28T18:05:58+08:00 | 407.26461988304095 |
| 2026-05-28T18:06:34+08:00 | 407.403216374269 |
| 2026-05-28T18:07:06+08:00 | 425.70730994152046 |
| 2026-05-28T20:04:23+08:00 | 429.46769005847955 |
| 2026-05-28T20:06:07+08:00 | 430.1437134502924 |
| 2026-05-28T20:06:41+08:00 | 431.4849415204678 |
| 2026-05-28T20:21:05+08:00 | 432.3286549707602 |
| 2026-05-28T20:21:44+08:00 | 435.8255847953216 |
| 2026-05-28T20:22:04+08:00 | 439.1906432748538 |
| 2026-05-28T20:22:41+08:00 | 454.9654970760234 |
| 2026-05-28T20:23:01+08:00 | 473.72280701754386 |
| 2026-05-28T21:43:05+08:00 | 473.8695906432749 |
| 2026-05-28T21:43:10+08:00 | 477.0862573099415 |
| 2026-05-28T21:43:37+08:00 | 478.0048245614035 |
| 2026-05-28T21:43:57+08:00 | 499.700730994152 |
| 2026-05-28T22:05:27+08:00 | 500.28187134502923 |
| 2026-05-28T22:05:42+08:00 | 513.5919590643275 |
| 2026-05-28T22:06:12+08:00 | 514.2817251461988 |
| 2026-05-28T22:06:59+08:00 | 540.6706140350877 |
| 2026-05-29T08:43:52+08:00 | 545.0353801169591 |
| 2026-05-29T08:44:05+08:00 | 560.3228070175438 |
| 2026-05-29T08:45:02+08:00 | 560.3540935672514 |
| 2026-05-29T08:45:16+08:00 | 561.5840643274854 |
| 2026-05-29T08:45:36+08:00 | 714.1425438596491 |
| 2026-05-29T08:46:17+08:00 | 714.1425438596491 |
| 2026-05-29T09:04:42+08:00 | 716.587134502924 |
| 2026-05-29T09:10:15+08:00 | 716.3422514619883 |
| 2026-05-29T09:10:46+08:00 | 718.9334795321637 |
| 2026-05-29T09:11:03+08:00 | 753.889619883041 |
| 2026-05-29T09:11:36+08:00 | 759.9172514619883 |
| 2026-05-29T09:12:12+08:00 | 760.3865497076023 |
| 2026-05-29T09:12:50+08:00 | 767.6964912280702 |
| 2026-05-29T09:18:36+08:00 | 788.5510233918129 |
| 2026-05-29T10:07:25+08:00 | 804.8445906432748 |
| 2026-05-29T10:08:09+08:00 | 955.5317251461988 |
| 2026-05-29T11:13:03+08:00 | 957.7919590643274 |
| 2026-05-29T14:40:14+08:00 | 1122.9966374269006 |
| 2026-05-29T16:05:10+08:00 | 1134.38 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 1421.54x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.512, 乙组 α=0.612) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
首钢朗泽中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 首钢朗泽（02553）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
