卓越睿新 02687
新股中签预测
66.4006.48%( -4.600 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
1150.4亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
381.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
223.1亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
93.6亿 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
35.0亿 |
| 6 | 卓锐证券 | 8.9亿 |
| 7 |  盈立 |
6.3亿 |
| 8 |  信诚 |
5.0亿 |
| 9 |  长桥 |
4.5亿 |
| 11 |  TradeGo |
2.8亿 |
| 12 |  盈宝 |
9519万 |
| 13 |  艾德 |
6267万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-28T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-11-28T10:00:49+08:00 | 0.005124162396531336 |
| 2025-11-28T10:07:28+08:00 | 0.033307055577453684 |
| 2025-11-28T11:12:02+08:00 | 0.053212455656286954 |
| 2025-11-28T11:13:04+08:00 | 0.06937327552227039 |
| 2025-11-28T11:13:31+08:00 | 0.0890815924320063 |
| 2025-11-28T11:13:56+08:00 | 0.1927473393772172 |
| 2025-11-28T11:50:02+08:00 | 0.21639731966890027 |
| 2025-11-28T12:06:27+08:00 | 0.22664564446196295 |
| 2025-11-28T12:06:56+08:00 | 0.6442648797792668 |
| 2025-11-28T12:07:28+08:00 | 0.658651951123374 |
| 2025-11-28T13:45:04+08:00 | 0.6919590067008278 |
| 2025-11-28T13:45:35+08:00 | 0.693732755222704 |
| 2025-11-28T13:46:04+08:00 | 0.6978715017737486 |
| 2025-11-28T14:01:50+08:00 | 0.7055577453685455 |
| 2025-11-28T14:02:57+08:00 | 0.895151754040205 |
| 2025-11-28T14:04:44+08:00 | 0.915451320457233 |
| 2025-11-28T14:05:08+08:00 | 1.0 |
| 2025-11-28T14:05:45+08:00 | 1.0197083169097358 |
| 2025-11-28T15:20:03+08:00 | 1.035672053606622 |
| 2025-11-28T15:20:36+08:00 | 1.1324398896334253 |
| 2025-11-28T15:21:24+08:00 | 1.152542372881356 |
| 2025-11-28T15:21:53+08:00 | 1.1722506897910918 |
| 2025-11-28T15:30:11+08:00 | 1.369333858888451 |
| 2025-11-28T16:09:27+08:00 | 1.378793851005124 |
| 2025-11-28T16:09:56+08:00 | 1.4333858888450925 |
| 2025-11-28T16:10:39+08:00 | 1.4473787938510052 |
| 2025-11-28T16:11:06+08:00 | 1.467087110760741 |
| 2025-11-28T17:08:44+08:00 | 1.4858100118249902 |
| 2025-11-28T17:09:06+08:00 | 1.4860070949940876 |
| 2025-11-28T17:09:36+08:00 | 1.4897516752069373 |
| 2025-11-28T17:43:28+08:00 | 3.4605833661805283 |
| 2025-11-28T18:03:15+08:00 | 3.4613716988569174 |
| 2025-11-28T18:03:39+08:00 | 3.3904217579818683 |
| 2025-11-28T18:03:45+08:00 | 3.394954670871108 |
| 2025-11-28T18:05:08+08:00 | 3.8283405597162004 |
| 2025-11-28T21:04:13+08:00 | 3.8301143082380764 |
| 2025-11-28T21:05:08+08:00 | 3.8334647221127316 |
| 2025-11-28T21:05:26+08:00 | 3.841348048876626 |
| 2025-11-28T21:06:12+08:00 | 3.8415451320457232 |
| 2025-11-28T21:06:31+08:00 | 3.844698462751281 |
| 2025-11-28T21:07:04+08:00 | 3.8460780449349627 |
| 2025-11-28T21:07:20+08:00 | 3.8462751281040597 |
| 2025-11-28T22:08:32+08:00 | 3.8839180134016553 |
| 2025-11-29T07:20:40+08:00 | 4.429641308632243 |
| 2025-11-29T07:21:23+08:00 | 4.429641308632243 |
| 2025-11-29T07:21:34+08:00 | 4.467284193929839 |
| 2025-11-29T09:23:43+08:00 | 4.754631454473788 |
| 2025-11-29T09:24:05+08:00 | 4.774339771383524 |
| 2025-11-29T09:24:22+08:00 | 4.797989751675207 |
| 2025-11-29T09:25:26+08:00 | 4.799566417027986 |
| 2025-11-29T10:44:47+08:00 | 4.800551832873473 |
| 2025-11-29T10:45:15+08:00 | 4.815727236893969 |
| 2025-11-29T10:45:24+08:00 | 4.969057942451714 |
| 2025-11-29T10:45:43+08:00 | 4.988766259361451 |
| 2025-11-29T11:16:53+08:00 | 4.9897516752069375 |
| 2025-11-29T11:17:25+08:00 | 4.99034292471423 |
| 2025-11-29T12:23:33+08:00 | 4.994284588096177 |
| 2025-11-29T12:23:57+08:00 | 5.004335829720142 |
| 2025-11-29T12:24:09+08:00 | 5.509459992116673 |
| 2025-11-29T15:56:42+08:00 | 5.516357903035081 |
| 2025-11-29T15:56:53+08:00 | 5.51793456838786 |
| 2025-11-29T15:57:30+08:00 | 5.5193141505715415 |
| 2025-11-29T15:57:57+08:00 | 5.521482065431612 |
| 2025-11-29T15:58:24+08:00 | 5.5248324793062675 |
| 2025-11-29T19:02:40+08:00 | 5.56346078044935 |
| 2025-11-29T19:03:21+08:00 | 5.564840362633031 |
| 2025-11-29T19:03:43+08:00 | 5.781631848640126 |
| 2025-11-29T19:04:19+08:00 | 5.788529759558534 |
| 2025-11-29T19:05:01+08:00 | 5.790106424911313 |
| 2025-11-29T19:05:12+08:00 | 5.791683090264091 |
| 2025-11-29T19:05:49+08:00 | 5.80074891604257 |
| 2025-11-29T20:21:51+08:00 | 5.801143082380765 |
| 2025-11-29T21:26:04+08:00 | 5.806464327946394 |
| 2025-11-29T22:10:43+08:00 | 5.808238076468269 |
| 2025-11-30T10:36:32+08:00 | 5.823216397319669 |
| 2025-11-30T10:36:55+08:00 | 5.83208513992905 |
| 2025-11-30T10:41:12+08:00 | 5.8358297201419 |
| 2025-11-30T10:41:16+08:00 | 5.837209302325581 |
| 2025-11-30T12:31:30+08:00 | 5.8374063854946785 |
| 2025-11-30T12:31:47+08:00 | 5.838194718171068 |
| 2025-11-30T12:32:34+08:00 | 5.838391801340165 |
| 2025-11-30T12:32:52+08:00 | 5.840362633031139 |
| 2025-11-30T12:33:46+08:00 | 5.8409538825384315 |
| 2025-11-30T17:22:45+08:00 | 5.841150965707529 |
| 2025-11-30T17:22:49+08:00 | 5.853567205360662 |
| 2025-11-30T17:22:54+08:00 | 5.870319274733938 |
| 2025-11-30T17:22:58+08:00 | 5.874063854946788 |
| 2025-11-30T17:27:33+08:00 | 5.874458021284982 |
| 2025-11-30T17:27:38+08:00 | 5.8760346866377615 |
| 2025-11-30T17:27:42+08:00 | 5.876428852975956 |
| 2025-11-30T17:27:46+08:00 | 5.87682301931415 |
| 2025-11-30T17:29:34+08:00 | 5.8965313362238865 |
| 2025-11-30T17:31:22+08:00 | 5.978320851399291 |
| 2025-11-30T22:08:03+08:00 | 5.991525423728813 |
| 2025-11-30T22:08:07+08:00 | 5.9962554197871505 |
| 2025-11-30T22:08:11+08:00 | 6.132636972802523 |
| 2025-11-30T22:08:31+08:00 | 6.13283405597162 |
| 2025-11-30T22:08:35+08:00 | 5.627906976744186 |
| 2025-11-30T22:08:39+08:00 | 6.058336618052818 |
| 2025-11-30T22:08:46+08:00 | 6.063066614111155 |
| 2025-11-30T22:12:04+08:00 | 6.06346078044935 |
| 2025-11-30T22:12:08+08:00 | 6.064249113125739 |
| 2025-11-30T22:14:22+08:00 | 6.438707134410722 |
| 2025-12-01T08:46:00+08:00 | 6.461371698856918 |
| 2025-12-01T08:46:10+08:00 | 6.970437524635396 |
| 2025-12-01T08:46:40+08:00 | 7.011233740638549 |
| 2025-12-01T08:46:43+08:00 | 7.018525817895152 |
| 2025-12-01T08:46:46+08:00 | 7.017540402049665 |
| 2025-12-01T08:48:09+08:00 | 7.037248718959401 |
| 2025-12-01T08:48:25+08:00 | 7.037248718959401 |
| 2025-12-01T09:07:08+08:00 | 7.056957035869137 |
| 2025-12-01T09:07:53+08:00 | 6.78439101300749 |
| 2025-12-01T09:08:23+08:00 | 6.785179345683878 |
| 2025-12-01T09:08:34+08:00 | 7.1951123374063854 |
| 2025-12-01T09:14:13+08:00 | 7.7238864800946 |
| 2025-12-01T10:12:16+08:00 | 7.765076862435948 |
| 2025-12-01T10:12:40+08:00 | 7.661608198659835 |
| 2025-12-01T10:13:30+08:00 | 7.7207331493890425 |
| 2025-12-01T10:13:56+08:00 | 7.761332282223099 |
| 2025-12-01T11:11:11+08:00 | 7.7912889239258964 |
| 2025-12-01T11:11:50+08:00 | 7.827749310208908 |
| 2025-12-01T11:12:12+08:00 | 7.886874260938116 |
| 2025-12-01T11:12:37+08:00 | 7.911312573906188 |
| 2025-12-01T12:03:57+08:00 | 8.020496649586125 |
| 2025-12-01T12:04:34+08:00 | 8.250295624753646 |
| 2025-12-01T12:05:11+08:00 | 8.25068979109184 |
| 2025-12-01T12:05:43+08:00 | 9.728813559322035 |
| 2025-12-01T13:45:02+08:00 | 10.241821048482459 |
| 2025-12-01T13:45:27+08:00 | 10.288135593220339 |
| 2025-12-01T13:45:50+08:00 | 10.997635001970831 |
| 2025-12-01T13:47:27+08:00 | 11.39180134016555 |
| 2025-12-01T13:47:54+08:00 | 11.402837997635002 |
| 2025-12-01T14:02:25+08:00 | 11.419392983839181 |
| 2025-12-01T14:03:25+08:00 | 11.587702010248325 |
| 2025-12-01T14:04:51+08:00 | 11.720733149389043 |
| 2025-12-01T14:05:14+08:00 | 11.726251478123768 |
| 2025-12-01T14:05:39+08:00 | 13.421166732361057 |
| 2025-12-01T14:21:25+08:00 | 14.209499408750492 |
| 2025-12-01T15:15:58+08:00 | 14.2313756405203 |
| 2025-12-01T15:16:28+08:00 | 14.252660622782814 |
| 2025-12-01T15:16:44+08:00 | 14.297398502167916 |
| 2025-12-01T15:17:41+08:00 | 15.992313756405203 |
| 2025-12-01T16:30:50+08:00 | 16.00374458021285 |
| 2025-12-01T16:31:13+08:00 | 20.270003941663383 |
| 2025-12-01T16:31:27+08:00 | 20.662593614505322 |
| 2025-12-01T16:32:06+08:00 | 22.219550650374458 |
| 2025-12-01T17:22:08+08:00 | 22.2238864800946 |
| 2025-12-01T17:23:12+08:00 | 29.104256996452502 |
| 2025-12-01T17:23:27+08:00 | 29.494481671265273 |
| 2025-12-01T17:24:01+08:00 | 71.2169885691762 |
| 2025-12-01T17:59:25+08:00 | 77.52364998029168 |
| 2025-12-01T18:04:14+08:00 | 77.53192747339378 |
| 2025-12-01T18:05:02+08:00 | 78.38707134410721 |
| 2025-12-01T18:06:01+08:00 | 84.66200236499803 |
| 2025-12-01T18:06:29+08:00 | 113.45585337012218 |
| 2025-12-01T18:07:54+08:00 | 122.14761529365393 |
| 2025-12-01T19:44:49+08:00 | 126.87761135199054 |
| 2025-12-01T19:45:07+08:00 | 126.88372093023256 |
| 2025-12-01T19:45:31+08:00 | 128.3738667717777 |
| 2025-12-01T19:45:54+08:00 | 137.56937327552228 |
| 2025-12-01T19:46:13+08:00 | 163.30843515963736 |
| 2025-12-01T20:09:03+08:00 | 170.51103665746945 |
| 2025-12-01T20:09:31+08:00 | 196.3289318092235 |
| 2025-12-01T21:36:08+08:00 | 204.19057942451715 |
| 2025-12-01T21:36:27+08:00 | 236.41367757193535 |
| 2025-12-01T22:03:57+08:00 | 247.1554986204178 |
| 2025-12-01T22:08:33+08:00 | 280.06838785967676 |
| 2025-12-02T08:54:52+08:00 | 289.7335435553804 |
| 2025-12-02T08:55:04+08:00 | 319.3734726054395 |
| 2025-12-02T08:55:26+08:00 | 492.23512022073317 |
| 2025-12-02T08:56:17+08:00 | 492.23512022073317 |
| 2025-12-02T09:04:45+08:00 | 493.02818289318094 |
| 2025-12-02T09:05:25+08:00 | 502.1180528182893 |
| 2025-12-02T09:05:55+08:00 | 550.6596373669688 |
| 2025-12-02T09:06:39+08:00 | 590.649783208514 |
| 2025-12-02T09:26:57+08:00 | 610.3186834844304 |
| 2025-12-02T10:23:35+08:00 | 627.734726054395 |
| 2025-12-02T10:23:50+08:00 | 629.1791486007095 |
| 2025-12-02T10:23:59+08:00 | 629.3048876625936 |
| 2025-12-02T10:24:20+08:00 | 689.9079621600315 |
| 2025-12-02T11:15:16+08:00 | 691.4911312573906 |
| 2025-12-02T11:15:40+08:00 | 701.2313756405204 |
| 2025-12-02T11:16:05+08:00 | 708.5563657863619 |
| 2025-12-02T11:16:18+08:00 | 760.0936145053213 |
| 2025-12-02T12:01:36+08:00 | 760.5792274339772 |
| 2025-12-02T12:07:02+08:00 | 761.4499408750493 |
| 2025-12-02T12:07:16+08:00 | 770.9138746551045 |
| 2025-12-02T12:07:34+08:00 | 821.5642491131257 |
| 2025-12-02T13:48:53+08:00 | 821.6974773354356 |
| 2025-12-02T13:49:21+08:00 | 821.7055577453685 |
| 2025-12-02T13:49:39+08:00 | 827.5674024438313 |
| 2025-12-02T13:49:53+08:00 | 866.1957035869136 |
| 2025-12-02T14:06:59+08:00 | 866.7928655892787 |
| 2025-12-02T14:07:35+08:00 | 866.9300354749704 |
| 2025-12-02T14:07:51+08:00 | 873.6292865589279 |
| 2025-12-02T14:08:07+08:00 | 913.2430035474971 |
| 2025-12-02T14:08:55+08:00 | 936.3243988963343 |
| 2025-12-02T15:03:16+08:00 | 936.3953488372093 |
| 2025-12-02T15:03:50+08:00 | 947.9653133622388 |
| 2025-12-02T15:04:12+08:00 | 948.8610563657863 |
| 2025-12-02T15:05:33+08:00 | 997.698265668112 |
| 2025-12-02T15:32:01+08:00 | 1006.5670082774931 |
| 2025-12-02T16:23:54+08:00 | 1022.7049664958613 |
| 2025-12-02T16:24:09+08:00 | 1067.9552621206149 |
| 2025-12-02T17:17:05+08:00 | 1096.8013401655498 |
| 2025-12-02T17:17:45+08:00 | 1230.443437130469 |
| 2025-12-02T17:37:11+08:00 | 1541.4406779661017 |
| 2025-12-02T18:01:57+08:00 | 1563.5139929050058 |
| 2025-12-02T18:03:15+08:00 | 1592.7142294048087 |
| 2025-12-02T18:05:07+08:00 | 1614.3433188805675 |
| 2025-12-02T18:05:18+08:00 | 1703.6022861647616 |
| 2025-12-02T20:20:08+08:00 | 1718.3827355143872 |
| 2025-12-02T20:20:17+08:00 | 1810.9132834055972 |
| 2025-12-02T20:20:58+08:00 | 1827.3431217973985 |
| 2025-12-02T20:21:07+08:00 | 1925.9832479306267 |
| 2025-12-02T21:28:54+08:00 | 1942.5268033109971 |
| 2025-12-02T21:29:03+08:00 | 2056.7562081198266 |
| 2025-12-02T22:04:44+08:00 | 2075.760741032716 |
| 2025-12-02T22:06:09+08:00 | 2182.323610563658 |
| 2025-12-03T09:48:33+08:00 | 2210.874260938116 |
| 2025-12-03T09:49:25+08:00 | 2210.874260938116 |
| 2025-12-03T09:51:31+08:00 | 2297.548285376429 |
| 2025-12-03T09:51:53+08:00 | 2934.1269215608986 |
| 2025-12-03T09:52:58+08:00 | 2954.1817106819076 |
| 2025-12-03T09:53:05+08:00 | 3198.486007094994 |
| 2025-12-03T09:53:14+08:00 | 3220.1651556957036 |
| 2025-12-03T09:53:29+08:00 | 3594.623176980686 |
| 2025-12-03T10:09:53+08:00 | 3612.0898699251084 |
| 2025-12-03T10:10:02+08:00 | 3669.2439889633424 |
| 2025-12-03T10:11:30+08:00 | 3751.4893575088686 |
| 2025-12-03T10:12:52+08:00 | 3759.916633819472 |
| 2025-12-03T10:44:36+08:00 | 3768.77 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 4813.4x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.479, 乙组 α=0.579) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
卓越睿新中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 卓越睿新（02687）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
