真健康医疗－Ｂ 02697
新股中签预测
47.00010.31%( -5.400 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
229.5亿 |
| 2 |  老虎 |
41.1亿 |
| 3 |  华泰 |
17.1亿 |
| 4 |  辉立 |
10.0亿 |
| 5 |  致富 |
8.2亿 |
| 6 |  华盛 |
6.3亿 |
| 7 |  熊猫 |
4.6亿 |
| 8 |  复星 |
4.0亿 |
| 9 |  盈立 |
3.7亿 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-22T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-06-22T10:16:07+08:00 | 0.00145017609281127 |
| 2026-06-22T10:16:13+08:00 | 0.003107520198881293 |
| 2026-06-22T11:14:47+08:00 | 0.015744769007665218 |
| 2026-06-22T11:17:46+08:00 | 0.019888129272840272 |
| 2026-06-22T11:19:38+08:00 | 0.022166977418686555 |
| 2026-06-22T11:23:17+08:00 | 0.04288377874456184 |
| 2026-06-22T12:09:53+08:00 | 0.043090946757820596 |
| 2026-06-22T12:12:22+08:00 | 0.044748290863890615 |
| 2026-06-22T12:16:54+08:00 | 0.10689869484151647 |
| 2026-06-22T12:21:54+08:00 | 0.10772736689455148 |
| 2026-06-22T13:39:30+08:00 | 0.11808576755748912 |
| 2026-06-22T14:16:26+08:00 | 0.11953594365030039 |
| 2026-06-22T14:16:29+08:00 | 0.12036461570333541 |
| 2026-06-22T14:22:01+08:00 | 0.13569504868448312 |
| 2026-06-22T14:24:59+08:00 | 0.1564118500103584 |
| 2026-06-22T14:27:42+08:00 | 0.15744769007665216 |
| 2026-06-22T14:29:46+08:00 | 0.15806919411642842 |
| 2026-06-22T14:29:49+08:00 | 0.15910503418272218 |
| 2026-06-22T14:40:53+08:00 | 0.163455562461156 |
| 2026-06-22T15:12:57+08:00 | 0.164284234514191 |
| 2026-06-22T15:14:22+08:00 | 0.16532007458048478 |
| 2026-06-22T15:15:50+08:00 | 0.21814791796146674 |
| 2026-06-22T16:04:17+08:00 | 0.21980526206753678 |
| 2026-06-22T16:08:44+08:00 | 0.23700020716801326 |
| 2026-06-22T16:12:36+08:00 | 0.23824321524756578 |
| 2026-06-22T16:16:07+08:00 | 0.7354464470685727 |
| 2026-06-22T17:03:59+08:00 | 0.7437331675989227 |
| 2026-06-22T17:07:53+08:00 | 0.8498031903874042 |
| 2026-06-22T17:10:03+08:00 | 1.284856018230785 |
| 2026-06-22T17:11:31+08:00 | 1.2854775222705614 |
| 2026-06-22T18:01:31+08:00 | 1.2879635384296664 |
| 2026-06-22T18:02:34+08:00 | 3.773979697534701 |
| 2026-06-22T18:11:46+08:00 | 3.781852082038533 |
| 2026-06-22T18:11:53+08:00 | 3.784752434224156 |
| 2026-06-22T18:12:44+08:00 | 3.7851667702506733 |
| 2026-06-22T18:13:55+08:00 | 3.8058835715765484 |
| 2026-06-22T18:13:59+08:00 | 3.806919411642842 |
| 2026-06-22T18:14:12+08:00 | 3.807126579656101 |
| 2026-06-22T20:22:48+08:00 | 3.8075409156826185 |
| 2026-06-22T20:27:17+08:00 | 3.8087839237621712 |
| 2026-06-22T20:28:11+08:00 | 3.851046198466957 |
| 2026-06-22T20:30:30+08:00 | 3.8547752227056145 |
| 2026-06-22T20:31:36+08:00 | 3.855189558732132 |
| 2026-06-22T20:35:17+08:00 | 3.440853532214626 |
| 2026-06-22T21:22:53+08:00 | 3.3994199295628755 |
| 2026-06-22T22:08:04+08:00 | 3.4045991298943443 |
| 2026-06-22T22:09:53+08:00 | 3.5788274290449555 |
| 2026-06-23T08:37:34+08:00 | 3.5995442303708307 |
| 2026-06-23T08:40:19+08:00 | 3.6005800704371245 |
| 2026-06-23T08:40:22+08:00 | 3.604101926662523 |
| 2026-06-23T08:44:10+08:00 | 3.628754920240315 |
| 2026-06-23T08:44:15+08:00 | 3.6306194323596435 |
| 2026-06-23T08:44:40+08:00 | 3.6306194323596435 |
| 2026-06-23T09:16:42+08:00 | 3.6409778330225815 |
| 2026-06-23T09:16:48+08:00 | 3.649886057592708 |
| 2026-06-23T09:16:55+08:00 | 3.650507561632484 |
| 2026-06-23T09:17:01+08:00 | 3.6583799461363165 |
| 2026-06-23T10:09:58+08:00 | 3.6743318831572407 |
| 2026-06-23T10:11:01+08:00 | 3.6726745390511706 |
| 2026-06-23T10:12:23+08:00 | 3.6778537393826394 |
| 2026-06-23T10:12:51+08:00 | 3.678889579448933 |
| 2026-06-23T10:14:47+08:00 | 3.741039983426559 |
| 2026-06-23T11:02:35+08:00 | 3.7431116635591466 |
| 2026-06-23T11:10:02+08:00 | 3.7472550238243216 |
| 2026-06-23T11:11:30+08:00 | 3.7675574891236794 |
| 2026-06-23T11:11:55+08:00 | 3.683240107727367 |
| 2026-06-23T11:13:13+08:00 | 3.7868241143567434 |
| 2026-06-23T12:13:03+08:00 | 3.78910296250259 |
| 2026-06-23T12:15:08+08:00 | 3.7911746426351773 |
| 2026-06-23T12:15:41+08:00 | 3.7936606587942823 |
| 2026-06-23T12:16:29+08:00 | 3.7942821628340586 |
| 2026-06-23T12:16:57+08:00 | 3.897866169463435 |
| 2026-06-23T13:40:11+08:00 | 3.8991091775429876 |
| 2026-06-23T13:40:53+08:00 | 3.8989020095297287 |
| 2026-06-23T13:41:24+08:00 | 3.899523513569505 |
| 2026-06-23T13:42:06+08:00 | 3.9013880256888336 |
| 2026-06-23T14:01:55+08:00 | 3.9030453697949037 |
| 2026-06-23T14:03:02+08:00 | 3.9038740418479385 |
| 2026-06-23T14:04:20+08:00 | 3.9057385539672675 |
| 2026-06-23T14:05:50+08:00 | 3.9065672260203024 |
| 2026-06-23T14:10:16+08:00 | 3.989848767350321 |
| 2026-06-23T15:13:56+08:00 | 3.9937849596022374 |
| 2026-06-23T15:18:03+08:00 | 4.014501760928113 |
| 2026-06-23T15:18:42+08:00 | 4.015537600994406 |
| 2026-06-23T16:34:59+08:00 | 4.018230785166771 |
| 2026-06-23T16:36:22+08:00 | 4.018437953180029 |
| 2026-06-23T16:38:33+08:00 | 4.0194737932463225 |
| 2026-06-23T16:40:35+08:00 | 4.020923969339134 |
| 2026-06-23T17:02:33+08:00 | 4.022788481458463 |
| 2026-06-23T17:07:02+08:00 | 4.221876942200124 |
| 2026-06-23T17:07:58+08:00 | 4.222912782266418 |
| 2026-06-23T17:09:27+08:00 | 4.326496788895795 |
| 2026-06-23T18:08:49+08:00 | 4.333126165320075 |
| 2026-06-23T18:10:45+08:00 | 4.332297493267039 |
| 2026-06-23T18:11:51+08:00 | 4.332918997306816 |
| 2026-06-23T18:13:03+08:00 | 5.990263103376838 |
| 2026-06-23T18:14:40+08:00 | 5.99171327946965 |
| 2026-06-23T18:16:37+08:00 | 6.157447690076652 |
| 2026-06-23T20:15:59+08:00 | 6.158690698156205 |
| 2026-06-23T20:16:52+08:00 | 6.158897866169464 |
| 2026-06-23T20:17:56+08:00 | 6.166977418686555 |
| 2026-06-23T20:18:48+08:00 | 6.170913610938471 |
| 2026-06-23T20:20:02+08:00 | 6.26413921690491 |
| 2026-06-23T20:21:45+08:00 | 6.782059250051792 |
| 2026-06-23T21:06:35+08:00 | 6.782887922104827 |
| 2026-06-23T22:04:17+08:00 | 6.783302258131345 |
| 2026-06-23T22:04:58+08:00 | 6.8270147089289415 |
| 2026-06-23T22:06:07+08:00 | 6.8272218769422 |
| 2026-06-23T22:07:40+08:00 | 7.324425108763207 |
| 2026-06-24T08:32:45+08:00 | 7.614460327325461 |
| 2026-06-24T08:35:18+08:00 | 7.614874663351978 |
| 2026-06-24T08:35:41+08:00 | 7.625440232028175 |
| 2026-06-24T08:39:23+08:00 | 7.625440232028175 |
| 2026-06-24T09:15:39+08:00 | 7.639734824943028 |
| 2026-06-24T09:18:11+08:00 | 7.640563496996064 |
| 2026-06-24T09:19:07+08:00 | 7.645535529314274 |
| 2026-06-24T09:29:45+08:00 | 7.748705199917133 |
| 2026-06-24T10:08:19+08:00 | 7.749326703956909 |
| 2026-06-24T10:09:03+08:00 | 7.75243422415579 |
| 2026-06-24T10:09:33+08:00 | 7.7545059042883775 |
| 2026-06-24T10:10:18+08:00 | 7.7584420965402945 |
| 2026-06-24T10:11:15+08:00 | 7.82059250051792 |
| 2026-06-24T11:22:40+08:00 | 7.884607416614875 |
| 2026-06-24T11:23:07+08:00 | 7.887922104827014 |
| 2026-06-24T11:23:59+08:00 | 7.8908224570126375 |
| 2026-06-24T11:24:49+08:00 | 7.908846074166148 |
| 2026-06-24T11:25:20+08:00 | 7.909260410192666 |
| 2026-06-24T11:25:56+08:00 | 8.613631655272426 |
| 2026-06-24T12:10:46+08:00 | 8.617360679511084 |
| 2026-06-24T12:11:52+08:00 | 8.62461155997514 |
| 2026-06-24T12:12:20+08:00 | 8.624818727988398 |
| 2026-06-24T12:12:53+08:00 | 8.62274704785581 |
| 2026-06-24T12:13:49+08:00 | 8.650714729645742 |
| 2026-06-24T12:15:01+08:00 | 9.168634762792625 |
| 2026-06-24T13:47:28+08:00 | 9.169670602858918 |
| 2026-06-24T13:47:48+08:00 | 9.170706442925212 |
| 2026-06-24T13:48:15+08:00 | 9.171535114978248 |
| 2026-06-24T13:48:40+08:00 | 9.793039154754506 |
| 2026-06-24T13:49:13+08:00 | 9.796146674953388 |
| 2026-06-24T13:49:50+08:00 | 9.803604723430702 |
| 2026-06-24T13:50:27+08:00 | 9.824321524756577 |
| 2026-06-24T14:03:34+08:00 | 9.83385125336648 |
| 2026-06-24T14:04:36+08:00 | 10.039569090532423 |
| 2026-06-24T14:05:02+08:00 | 10.040190594572199 |
| 2026-06-24T14:05:33+08:00 | 10.042262274704786 |
| 2026-06-24T14:05:55+08:00 | 10.039361922519163 |
| 2026-06-24T14:06:59+08:00 | 10.163662730474416 |
| 2026-06-24T14:08:27+08:00 | 10.162626890408122 |
| 2026-06-24T15:11:45+08:00 | 10.26248187279884 |
| 2026-06-24T15:12:36+08:00 | 10.265175056971204 |
| 2026-06-24T15:12:58+08:00 | 10.27739796975347 |
| 2026-06-24T15:13:30+08:00 | 10.286306194323597 |
| 2026-06-24T15:14:25+08:00 | 10.291278226641806 |
| 2026-06-24T15:14:51+08:00 | 10.788481458462813 |
| 2026-06-24T16:18:40+08:00 | 10.811269939921276 |
| 2026-06-24T16:19:54+08:00 | 10.81230577998757 |
| 2026-06-24T16:20:29+08:00 | 10.823078516677025 |
| 2026-06-24T16:21:34+08:00 | 10.83903045369795 |
| 2026-06-24T16:23:19+08:00 | 11.31551688419308 |
| 2026-06-24T16:23:46+08:00 | 11.322767764657137 |
| 2026-06-24T17:00:44+08:00 | 11.944271804433395 |
| 2026-06-24T17:01:05+08:00 | 13.503003936192252 |
| 2026-06-24T17:01:59+08:00 | 13.545887714936814 |
| 2026-06-24T17:03:52+08:00 | 18.527449761756785 |
| 2026-06-24T17:04:26+08:00 | 18.527656929770043 |
| 2026-06-24T17:05:03+08:00 | 18.980940542780196 |
| 2026-06-24T17:05:34+08:00 | 39.22125543816035 |
| 2026-06-24T18:07:05+08:00 | 46.32587528485602 |
| 2026-06-24T18:15:47+08:00 | 62.899316345556244 |
| 2026-06-24T18:16:34+08:00 | 63.78558110627719 |
| 2026-06-24T18:17:47+08:00 | 64.61155997513984 |
| 2026-06-24T18:18:16+08:00 | 67.48373731095919 |
| 2026-06-24T18:18:53+08:00 | 67.4957530557282 |
| 2026-06-24T18:19:25+08:00 | 67.65216490573856 |
| 2026-06-24T18:20:11+08:00 | 68.27366894551481 |
| 2026-06-24T18:20:43+08:00 | 87.29169256266833 |
| 2026-06-24T20:13:40+08:00 | 88.03459705821422 |
| 2026-06-24T20:14:33+08:00 | 90.0613217319246 |
| 2026-06-24T20:15:52+08:00 | 90.58421379738968 |
| 2026-06-24T20:16:27+08:00 | 91.87300600787239 |
| 2026-06-24T20:17:00+08:00 | 99.2873420343899 |
| 2026-06-24T20:17:47+08:00 | 134.75450590428838 |
| 2026-06-24T21:41:30+08:00 | 136.48477315102548 |
| 2026-06-24T22:04:29+08:00 | 141.58897866169463 |
| 2026-06-24T22:05:07+08:00 | 143.23182100683655 |
| 2026-06-24T22:05:48+08:00 | 154.19763828464886 |
| 2026-06-24T22:06:50+08:00 | 209.11787859954424 |
| 2026-06-25T08:41:17+08:00 | 215.05655686761963 |
| 2026-06-25T08:41:50+08:00 | 239.03024652993577 |
| 2026-06-25T08:43:25+08:00 | 240.4052206339341 |
| 2026-06-25T08:43:54+08:00 | 243.7513983840895 |
| 2026-06-25T08:44:41+08:00 | 409.77584420965405 |
| 2026-06-25T08:49:49+08:00 | 409.77584420965405 |
| 2026-06-25T09:04:04+08:00 | 418.8912367930391 |
| 2026-06-25T09:04:51+08:00 | 426.0002071680133 |
| 2026-06-25T09:05:56+08:00 | 426.4816656308266 |
| 2026-06-25T09:06:37+08:00 | 429.13196602444583 |
| 2026-06-25T09:07:00+08:00 | 478.8730060078724 |
| 2026-06-25T09:07:47+08:00 | 491.7408328154133 |
| 2026-06-25T09:08:02+08:00 | 495.9152682825772 |
| 2026-06-25T09:10:34+08:00 | 524.0890822457013 |
| 2026-06-25T10:07:40+08:00 | 526.5750984048063 |
| 2026-06-25T10:08:06+08:00 | 544.2829915061114 |
| 2026-06-25T10:09:16+08:00 | 668.8116842759478 |
| 2026-06-25T11:06:10+08:00 | 682.46 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 1790.4x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.538, 乙组 α=0.638) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
真健康医疗－Ｂ中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 真健康医疗－Ｂ（02697）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
