海致科技集团 02706
新股中签预测
32.2802.54%( -0.840 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
2071.0亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
512.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
327.8亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
110.3亿 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
44.0亿 |
| 6 |  招银 |
40.0亿 |
| 7 |  盈立 |
23.0亿 |
| 8 |  熊猫 |
15.4亿 |
| 9 |  信诚 |
15.0亿 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-05T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-02-05T10:06:17+08:00 | 0.022295833864186522 |
| 2026-02-05T10:07:04+08:00 | 0.11708497897821378 |
| 2026-02-05T10:07:32+08:00 | 0.6904064212001528 |
| 2026-02-05T11:13:45+08:00 | 0.7025098738692828 |
| 2026-02-05T11:14:33+08:00 | 1.5179003694738182 |
| 2026-02-05T11:14:54+08:00 | 1.5821123710026754 |
| 2026-02-05T12:06:14+08:00 | 1.9069945215951076 |
| 2026-02-05T12:07:06+08:00 | 2.245636386800866 |
| 2026-02-05T12:07:35+08:00 | 2.6915530640845966 |
| 2026-02-05T13:46:42+08:00 | 2.6991973499808894 |
| 2026-02-05T13:47:22+08:00 | 2.7060772072875525 |
| 2026-02-05T13:47:47+08:00 | 2.833481972225761 |
| 2026-02-05T14:05:35+08:00 | 2.858962925213403 |
| 2026-02-05T14:06:00+08:00 | 2.8305516626321823 |
| 2026-02-05T14:06:50+08:00 | 3.442094534335584 |
| 2026-02-05T14:08:02+08:00 | 3.545164989170595 |
| 2026-02-05T15:17:19+08:00 | 3.619059752834756 |
| 2026-02-05T15:17:28+08:00 | 3.6651802777423876 |
| 2026-02-05T15:18:25+08:00 | 3.8690279016435216 |
| 2026-02-05T15:19:34+08:00 | 3.9964326665817302 |
| 2026-02-05T16:03:38+08:00 | 4.071474073130335 |
| 2026-02-05T16:04:07+08:00 | 4.134157217479934 |
| 2026-02-05T16:05:42+08:00 | 6.28729774493566 |
| 2026-02-05T17:01:34+08:00 | 6.440183462861511 |
| 2026-02-05T17:02:21+08:00 | 6.484010702000255 |
| 2026-02-05T17:06:55+08:00 | 10.841253662886992 |
| 2026-02-05T17:07:06+08:00 | 11.793349471270226 |
| 2026-02-05T18:11:10+08:00 | 11.81934004331762 |
| 2026-02-05T18:11:14+08:00 | 13.603006752452542 |
| 2026-02-05T18:11:46+08:00 | 14.038603643776277 |
| 2026-02-05T18:12:19+08:00 | 15.41457510510893 |
| 2026-02-05T18:13:53+08:00 | 15.959103070454836 |
| 2026-02-05T20:42:45+08:00 | 15.967129570645943 |
| 2026-02-05T20:43:08+08:00 | 16.55497515607084 |
| 2026-02-05T20:43:35+08:00 | 17.255701363230983 |
| 2026-02-05T20:44:09+08:00 | 17.484010702000255 |
| 2026-02-05T20:44:41+08:00 | 18.796279780863806 |
| 2026-02-05T21:44:58+08:00 | 18.915912855140782 |
| 2026-02-05T21:45:28+08:00 | 21.209198624028538 |
| 2026-02-06T09:00:32+08:00 | 21.263600458657155 |
| 2026-02-06T09:00:50+08:00 | 21.334055293667983 |
| 2026-02-06T09:00:59+08:00 | 22.38259650910944 |
| 2026-02-06T09:02:44+08:00 | 22.38259650910944 |
| 2026-02-06T09:03:06+08:00 | 22.98917059498025 |
| 2026-02-06T09:03:33+08:00 | 23.333163460313415 |
| 2026-02-06T09:04:06+08:00 | 27.537520703274303 |
| 2026-02-06T09:06:13+08:00 | 28.163969932475474 |
| 2026-02-06T09:07:18+08:00 | 28.294559816537138 |
| 2026-02-06T09:07:45+08:00 | 29.35201936552427 |
| 2026-02-06T10:04:30+08:00 | 30.027264619696776 |
| 2026-02-06T10:04:51+08:00 | 30.046757548732323 |
| 2026-02-06T10:05:09+08:00 | 30.2404127914384 |
| 2026-02-06T10:05:42+08:00 | 31.590903299783413 |
| 2026-02-06T11:13:17+08:00 | 32.942667855777806 |
| 2026-02-06T11:14:03+08:00 | 33.479678939992354 |
| 2026-02-06T11:14:23+08:00 | 35.110459931201426 |
| 2026-02-06T12:03:46+08:00 | 35.19824181424385 |
| 2026-02-06T12:04:14+08:00 | 35.941266403363485 |
| 2026-02-06T12:08:31+08:00 | 39.80163078099121 |
| 2026-02-06T13:42:49+08:00 | 39.86597018728501 |
| 2026-02-06T13:43:08+08:00 | 40.510128678812585 |
| 2026-02-06T13:43:41+08:00 | 43.8736144731813 |
| 2026-02-06T14:11:19+08:00 | 44.01847369091604 |
| 2026-02-06T14:12:12+08:00 | 44.528092750668876 |
| 2026-02-06T14:12:18+08:00 | 45.61561982418142 |
| 2026-02-06T14:12:38+08:00 | 48.96636514205631 |
| 2026-02-06T14:13:25+08:00 | 49.930691807873615 |
| 2026-02-06T15:03:30+08:00 | 50.04828640591158 |
| 2026-02-06T15:04:00+08:00 | 50.30487960249713 |
| 2026-02-06T15:05:30+08:00 | 53.00586061918716 |
| 2026-02-06T16:07:21+08:00 | 53.037202191361956 |
| 2026-02-06T16:07:41+08:00 | 53.74404382723914 |
| 2026-02-06T16:08:10+08:00 | 58.61090584787871 |
| 2026-02-06T17:17:29+08:00 | 58.99362976175309 |
| 2026-02-06T17:18:52+08:00 | 65.98611288062173 |
| 2026-02-06T17:19:08+08:00 | 89.91272773601733 |
| 2026-02-06T17:27:46+08:00 | 92.07860873996688 |
| 2026-02-06T17:47:44+08:00 | 101.76137087527073 |
| 2026-02-06T18:09:54+08:00 | 101.77614982800357 |
| 2026-02-06T18:10:11+08:00 | 106.55892470378392 |
| 2026-02-06T18:10:40+08:00 | 128.96942285641484 |
| 2026-02-06T18:13:03+08:00 | 132.20945343355842 |
| 2026-02-06T20:16:25+08:00 | 132.29264874506308 |
| 2026-02-06T20:16:39+08:00 | 134.44107529621607 |
| 2026-02-06T20:16:58+08:00 | 147.85679704420946 |
| 2026-02-06T20:17:41+08:00 | 149.82672951968402 |
| 2026-02-06T20:18:05+08:00 | 158.09529876417378 |
| 2026-02-06T21:31:46+08:00 | 159.92521340298129 |
| 2026-02-06T21:32:05+08:00 | 168.57599694228566 |
| 2026-02-07T09:46:42+08:00 | 180.80787361447318 |
| 2026-02-07T09:46:49+08:00 | 181.53573703656517 |
| 2026-02-07T09:48:06+08:00 | 181.53573703656517 |
| 2026-02-07T09:48:29+08:00 | 181.7185628742515 |
| 2026-02-07T09:49:05+08:00 | 188.6111606574086 |
| 2026-02-07T09:49:12+08:00 | 231.7886354949675 |
| 2026-02-07T09:49:19+08:00 | 237.15237609886609 |
| 2026-02-07T10:01:27+08:00 | 237.18257102815645 |
| 2026-02-07T10:17:16+08:00 | 238.45445279653458 |
| 2026-02-07T10:17:42+08:00 | 242.50592432156964 |
| 2026-02-07T11:11:25+08:00 | 242.513441202701 |
| 2026-02-07T11:11:37+08:00 | 243.62925213402983 |
| 2026-02-07T11:11:58+08:00 | 249.4771308446936 |
| 2026-02-07T13:59:16+08:00 | 249.414447700344 |
| 2026-02-07T13:59:29+08:00 | 251.83016944833736 |
| 2026-02-07T13:59:52+08:00 | 257.99656007134666 |
| 2026-02-07T14:00:01+08:00 | 258.0072620716015 |
| 2026-02-07T14:00:18+08:00 | 261.2358262199006 |
| 2026-02-07T14:00:35+08:00 | 265.98802395209583 |
| 2026-02-07T14:00:47+08:00 | 265.99974519047015 |
| 2026-02-07T14:43:34+08:00 | 267.05784176328194 |
| 2026-02-07T14:44:10+08:00 | 271.6316728245636 |
| 2026-02-07T15:02:40+08:00 | 271.64071856287427 |
| 2026-02-07T15:54:01+08:00 | 271.8776914256593 |
| 2026-02-07T15:54:19+08:00 | 276.3750796279781 |
| 2026-02-07T16:02:20+08:00 | 276.3868008663524 |
| 2026-02-07T16:25:18+08:00 | 277.5909032997834 |
| 2026-02-07T16:25:40+08:00 | 279.6548604917824 |
| 2026-02-07T18:32:20+08:00 | 279.6595744680851 |
| 2026-02-07T18:32:28+08:00 | 280.942285641483 |
| 2026-02-07T18:32:50+08:00 | 283.6305261816792 |
| 2026-02-07T18:32:58+08:00 | 283.6334564912728 |
| 2026-02-07T18:33:16+08:00 | 284.24601860109567 |
| 2026-02-07T18:33:34+08:00 | 289.4441330105746 |
| 2026-02-07T19:29:49+08:00 | 289.44935660593706 |
| 2026-02-07T19:30:00+08:00 | 290.17594598037965 |
| 2026-02-07T19:30:20+08:00 | 292.4564912727736 |
| 2026-02-07T20:22:21+08:00 | 293.1002675500064 |
| 2026-02-07T20:22:35+08:00 | 297.4447700343993 |
| 2026-02-07T21:37:23+08:00 | 298.70200025480955 |
| 2026-02-07T21:37:40+08:00 | 300.6385526818703 |
| 2026-02-08T11:03:10+08:00 | 306.7135940884189 |
| 2026-02-08T11:03:16+08:00 | 307.02458911963305 |
| 2026-02-08T11:03:23+08:00 | 309.1570900751688 |
| 2026-02-08T11:06:36+08:00 | 340.49866224996816 |
| 2026-02-08T11:06:40+08:00 | 346.0789909542617 |
| 2026-02-08T11:07:16+08:00 | 346.1228181934004 |
| 2026-02-08T11:07:21+08:00 | 346.1270225506434 |
| 2026-02-08T11:07:25+08:00 | 346.13619569371895 |
| 2026-02-08T15:23:14+08:00 | 346.5445279653459 |
| 2026-02-08T15:23:22+08:00 | 347.4358517008536 |
| 2026-02-08T15:23:31+08:00 | 348.5214677028921 |
| 2026-02-08T15:23:39+08:00 | 349.4745827493948 |
| 2026-02-08T15:24:14+08:00 | 349.4888520830679 |
| 2026-02-08T15:24:23+08:00 | 349.4901261307173 |
| 2026-02-08T15:24:31+08:00 | 349.4954771308447 |
| 2026-02-08T15:24:41+08:00 | 349.50095553573703 |
| 2026-02-08T15:26:03+08:00 | 355.31061281691933 |
| 2026-02-08T15:26:11+08:00 | 359.75703911326286 |
| 2026-02-08T15:26:19+08:00 | 364.5984201809148 |
| 2026-02-08T15:26:27+08:00 | 367.1210345266913 |
| 2026-02-08T19:55:57+08:00 | 371.3890941521213 |
| 2026-02-08T19:56:06+08:00 | 376.90572047394573 |
| 2026-02-08T19:56:16+08:00 | 384.5372658937444 |
| 2026-02-08T19:56:28+08:00 | 391.0476493820869 |
| 2026-02-08T19:57:10+08:00 | 391.04981526309086 |
| 2026-02-08T19:57:19+08:00 | 391.0607720728755 |
| 2026-02-08T19:57:29+08:00 | 391.0684163587718 |
| 2026-02-08T19:57:41+08:00 | 391.07886354949676 |
| 2026-02-08T20:01:33+08:00 | 393.26716779207544 |
| 2026-02-08T20:01:41+08:00 | 394.8608739966875 |
| 2026-02-08T20:01:52+08:00 | 395.79041916167665 |
| 2026-02-08T20:02:03+08:00 | 396.53382596509107 |
| 2026-02-08T20:04:52+08:00 | 398.11759459803795 |
| 2026-02-08T20:06:10+08:00 | 403.0991209071219 |
| 2026-02-08T22:37:58+08:00 | 417.6105236335839 |
| 2026-02-08T22:38:07+08:00 | 432.1346668365397 |
| 2026-02-08T22:38:54+08:00 | 434.87922028283856 |
| 2026-02-08T22:39:03+08:00 | 440.3851446044082 |
| 2026-02-09T08:44:56+08:00 | 442.12613071728885 |
| 2026-02-09T08:45:22+08:00 | 449.9156580456109 |
| 2026-02-09T08:45:32+08:00 | 449.9156580456109 |
| 2026-02-09T08:46:54+08:00 | 517.5803287042935 |
| 2026-02-09T09:01:00+08:00 | 517.6777933494712 |
| 2026-02-09T09:02:02+08:00 | 536.218499171869 |
| 2026-02-09T09:03:18+08:00 | 540.6951203975028 |
| 2026-02-09T09:14:00+08:00 | 573.8458402344247 |
| 2026-02-09T09:14:13+08:00 | 586.6500191107148 |
| 2026-02-09T10:07:10+08:00 | 600.1251114791693 |
| 2026-02-09T10:07:30+08:00 | 617.0272646196968 |
| 2026-02-09T10:07:46+08:00 | 715.2308574340681 |
| 2026-02-09T10:09:56+08:00 | 725.2958338641865 |
| 2026-02-09T11:00:43+08:00 | 726.1723786469614 |
| 2026-02-09T11:04:03+08:00 | 736.7370365651675 |
| 2026-02-09T11:13:01+08:00 | 824.3405529366798 |
| 2026-02-09T11:51:12+08:00 | 833.7685055421073 |
| 2026-02-09T12:02:03+08:00 | 835.035163715123 |
| 2026-02-09T12:04:27+08:00 | 848.2672951968403 |
| 2026-02-09T12:06:37+08:00 | 915.6389348961651 |
| 2026-02-09T13:44:14+08:00 | 916.5455472034654 |
| 2026-02-09T13:44:25+08:00 | 927.6744808255829 |
| 2026-02-09T13:44:59+08:00 | 982.0380940247165 |
| 2026-02-09T14:05:25+08:00 | 982.90712192636 |
| 2026-02-09T14:05:39+08:00 | 994.7137214931838 |
| 2026-02-09T14:08:18+08:00 | 1082.3936807236591 |
| 2026-02-09T14:09:02+08:00 | 1108.6363868008664 |
| 2026-02-09T14:14:24+08:00 | 1120.1932730284113 |
| 2026-02-09T14:15:54+08:00 | 1129.111606574086 |
| 2026-02-09T15:01:01+08:00 | 1130.5640208943814 |
| 2026-02-09T15:04:28+08:00 | 1144.5363740603898 |
| 2026-02-09T15:05:42+08:00 | 1232.3564785322972 |
| 2026-02-09T16:09:06+08:00 | 1232.7042935405784 |
| 2026-02-09T16:10:45+08:00 | 1254.1573448846987 |
| 2026-02-09T16:11:01+08:00 | 1359.8523378774366 |
| 2026-02-09T17:06:36+08:00 | 1359.9241941648618 |
| 2026-02-09T17:06:44+08:00 | 1391.5475856797045 |
| 2026-02-09T17:07:03+08:00 | 1532.7375461842273 |
| 2026-02-09T17:16:54+08:00 | 1548.0261179768124 |
| 2026-02-09T18:17:05+08:00 | 1549.3456491272773 |
| 2026-02-09T18:19:21+08:00 | 1833.4582749394826 |
| 2026-02-09T18:19:48+08:00 | 1833.5026117976813 |
| 2026-02-09T18:20:09+08:00 | 1852.626704038731 |
| 2026-02-09T18:20:28+08:00 | 1963.6217352528984 |
| 2026-02-09T18:25:04+08:00 | 2001.014396738438 |
| 2026-02-09T20:05:18+08:00 | 2001.049560453561 |
| 2026-02-09T20:05:43+08:00 | 2012.56707860874 |
| 2026-02-09T20:06:03+08:00 | 2090.9719709517135 |
| 2026-02-09T20:06:41+08:00 | 2100.7310485412154 |
| 2026-02-09T20:06:56+08:00 | 2164.764683399159 |
| 2026-02-09T21:24:11+08:00 | 2179.215059243216 |
| 2026-02-09T21:24:25+08:00 | 2260.5757421327557 |
| 2026-02-10T08:49:33+08:00 | 2273.0425531914893 |
| 2026-02-10T08:49:39+08:00 | 2293.5645305134412 |
| 2026-02-10T08:49:46+08:00 | 2364.3432284367436 |
| 2026-02-10T08:50:07+08:00 | 2364.3432284367436 |
| 2026-02-10T08:50:28+08:00 | 2446.5575232513697 |
| 2026-02-10T08:51:43+08:00 | 2453.3002930309594 |
| 2026-02-10T08:51:59+08:00 | 2972.755000637024 |
| 2026-02-10T09:23:11+08:00 | 2978.7909287807365 |
| 2026-02-10T09:23:32+08:00 | 2997.0586061918716 |
| 2026-02-10T09:23:46+08:00 | 3176.0240795005734 |
| 2026-02-10T09:24:27+08:00 | 3191.057841763282 |
| 2026-02-10T09:33:23+08:00 | 3243.9053382596508 |
| 2026-02-10T09:34:16+08:00 | 3294.8672442349343 |
| 2026-02-10T10:04:40+08:00 | 3309.6279780863806 |
| 2026-02-10T10:07:33+08:00 | 3667.3041151739076 |
| 2026-02-10T10:31:28+08:00 | 4024.0374570008917 |
| 2026-02-10T10:34:39+08:00 | 4068.44 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 5065.06x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.588, 乙组 α=0.688) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
海致科技集团中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 海致科技集团（02706）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
