瀚天天成 02726
新股中签预测
81.7500.62%( +0.500 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
20.8亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
18.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
5.5亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
1.7亿 |
| 5 |  招银 |
1.5亿 |
| 6 |  TradeGo |
1.1亿 |
| 7 |  信诚 |
7000万 |
| 8 |  华盛 |
6620万 |
| 9 |  盈立 |
6599万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-20T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-03-20T10:10:01+08:00 | 0.0010982306284319707 |
| 2026-03-20T10:10:07+08:00 | 0.0038438071995118973 |
| 2026-03-20T10:10:13+08:00 | 0.27230018303843806 |
| 2026-03-20T10:49:27+08:00 | 0.2727272727272727 |
| 2026-03-20T11:10:22+08:00 | 0.2840756558877364 |
| 2026-03-20T11:11:06+08:00 | 0.3441122635753508 |
| 2026-03-20T11:11:39+08:00 | 0.39292251372788284 |
| 2026-03-20T11:12:14+08:00 | 0.4002440512507627 |
| 2026-03-20T12:06:46+08:00 | 0.4071995118974985 |
| 2026-03-20T12:07:35+08:00 | 0.4582672361195851 |
| 2026-03-20T12:10:07+08:00 | 0.4643685173886516 |
| 2026-03-20T13:40:19+08:00 | 0.47480170835875535 |
| 2026-03-20T13:40:54+08:00 | 0.5810860280658938 |
| 2026-03-20T13:41:27+08:00 | 0.6420988407565589 |
| 2026-03-20T14:16:28+08:00 | 0.6518608907870653 |
| 2026-03-20T14:16:59+08:00 | 0.6605247101891397 |
| 2026-03-20T14:17:20+08:00 | 1.2584502745576571 |
| 2026-03-20T14:19:03+08:00 | 1.2649786455155583 |
| 2026-03-20T15:16:13+08:00 | 1.2712629652226968 |
| 2026-03-20T15:16:55+08:00 | 1.2732763880414888 |
| 2026-03-20T15:20:28+08:00 | 1.3342892007321538 |
| 2026-03-20T15:24:33+08:00 | 1.3403904820012202 |
| 2026-03-20T16:26:16+08:00 | 1.3432580841976816 |
| 2026-03-20T16:27:08+08:00 | 1.3591824283099452 |
| 2026-03-20T16:27:43+08:00 | 1.3652837095790116 |
| 2026-03-20T16:28:45+08:00 | 1.3896888346552776 |
| 2026-03-20T17:06:14+08:00 | 1.390726052471019 |
| 2026-03-20T17:09:09+08:00 | 1.4055521659548504 |
| 2026-03-20T17:09:17+08:00 | 1.436058572300183 |
| 2026-03-20T18:02:00+08:00 | 1.4665649786455155 |
| 2026-03-20T18:03:33+08:00 | 3.479987797437462 |
| 2026-03-20T18:03:46+08:00 | 3.5037827943868214 |
| 2026-03-20T18:05:57+08:00 | 3.6194020744356314 |
| 2026-03-20T18:06:49+08:00 | 3.710921293471629 |
| 2026-03-20T18:09:07+08:00 | 3.7479560707748627 |
| 2026-03-20T20:28:10+08:00 | 3.748993288590604 |
| 2026-03-20T20:31:34+08:00 | 3.780658938377059 |
| 2026-03-20T20:32:02+08:00 | 3.8416717510677243 |
| 2026-03-20T20:32:27+08:00 | 3.8965832824893227 |
| 2026-03-20T22:23:47+08:00 | 3.9225137278828552 |
| 2026-03-20T22:24:16+08:00 | 3.9469188529591213 |
| 2026-03-21T10:25:22+08:00 | 3.9669310555216595 |
| 2026-03-21T10:26:07+08:00 | 3.96882245271507 |
| 2026-03-21T10:29:31+08:00 | 4.017022574740696 |
| 2026-03-21T10:30:31+08:00 | 4.017022574740696 |
| 2026-03-21T10:31:34+08:00 | 4.254972544234289 |
| 2026-03-21T10:31:57+08:00 | 4.267175106772422 |
| 2026-03-21T12:22:05+08:00 | 4.2712629652226966 |
| 2026-03-21T12:23:37+08:00 | 4.273459426479561 |
| 2026-03-21T12:25:05+08:00 | 4.269310555216595 |
| 2026-03-21T12:25:32+08:00 | 4.281513117754728 |
| 2026-03-21T12:25:45+08:00 | 4.336424649176327 |
| 2026-03-21T15:25:12+08:00 | 4.3339841366687 |
| 2026-03-21T15:27:39+08:00 | 4.843807199511898 |
| 2026-03-21T15:32:57+08:00 | 5.002440512507627 |
| 2026-03-21T15:33:28+08:00 | 5.045149481391092 |
| 2026-03-21T18:10:42+08:00 | 5.050396583282489 |
| 2026-03-21T18:13:44+08:00 | 5.079072605247102 |
| 2026-03-21T18:14:16+08:00 | 5.097376449054301 |
| 2026-03-21T18:14:41+08:00 | 5.103477730323368 |
| 2026-03-21T20:11:26+08:00 | 5.103843807199512 |
| 2026-03-21T20:13:53+08:00 | 5.141488712629652 |
| 2026-03-21T20:14:23+08:00 | 5.1658938377059185 |
| 2026-03-21T20:14:41+08:00 | 5.171995118974984 |
| 2026-03-21T22:09:24+08:00 | 5.170103721781574 |
| 2026-03-21T22:11:44+08:00 | 5.176327028676022 |
| 2026-03-21T22:12:10+08:00 | 5.237339841366687 |
| 2026-03-21T22:12:29+08:00 | 5.37156802928615 |
| 2026-03-22T09:21:45+08:00 | 5.37156802928615 |
| 2026-03-22T10:07:36+08:00 | 5.374862721171446 |
| 2026-03-22T10:09:36+08:00 | 5.49627821842587 |
| 2026-03-22T10:10:56+08:00 | 5.514582062233069 |
| 2026-03-22T10:11:41+08:00 | 5.526784624771202 |
| 2026-03-22T12:32:36+08:00 | 5.545088468578402 |
| 2026-03-22T12:32:39+08:00 | 5.697620500305064 |
| 2026-03-22T12:35:39+08:00 | 5.773520439292251 |
| 2026-03-22T12:41:12+08:00 | 5.778645515558267 |
| 2026-03-22T12:41:30+08:00 | 5.779011592434411 |
| 2026-03-22T15:26:16+08:00 | 5.833923123856009 |
| 2026-03-22T15:26:20+08:00 | 5.840024405125076 |
| 2026-03-22T15:26:24+08:00 | 5.852226967663209 |
| 2026-03-22T15:32:11+08:00 | 5.8546064673581455 |
| 2026-03-22T15:32:15+08:00 | 5.859548505186089 |
| 2026-03-22T15:32:19+08:00 | 5.863087248322148 |
| 2026-03-22T15:42:40+08:00 | 5.863514338010982 |
| 2026-03-22T15:42:45+08:00 | 5.8640024405125075 |
| 2026-03-22T15:42:49+08:00 | 5.865222696766321 |
| 2026-03-22T19:11:55+08:00 | 5.944539353264186 |
| 2026-03-22T19:12:00+08:00 | 6.457046979865772 |
| 2026-03-22T19:12:04+08:00 | 6.560768761439903 |
| 2026-03-22T19:12:08+08:00 | 6.585173886516168 |
| 2026-03-22T19:13:41+08:00 | 6.632214765100671 |
| 2026-03-22T19:13:45+08:00 | 6.656497864551556 |
| 2026-03-22T19:25:29+08:00 | 6.656680902989628 |
| 2026-03-22T19:25:33+08:00 | 6.657169005491153 |
| 2026-03-22T19:25:37+08:00 | 6.657413056741916 |
| 2026-03-22T19:25:41+08:00 | 6.658267236119585 |
| 2026-03-22T22:11:18+08:00 | 6.731482611348383 |
| 2026-03-22T22:11:46+08:00 | 6.694874923733984 |
| 2026-03-22T22:13:33+08:00 | 6.770225747406956 |
| 2026-03-22T22:13:53+08:00 | 6.770347773032337 |
| 2026-03-22T22:14:15+08:00 | 6.774679682733374 |
| 2026-03-23T08:39:56+08:00 | 6.775350823672971 |
| 2026-03-23T08:40:12+08:00 | 6.681818181818182 |
| 2026-03-23T08:41:25+08:00 | 6.657413056741916 |
| 2026-03-23T08:42:11+08:00 | 6.657413056741916 |
| 2026-03-23T09:15:11+08:00 | 6.662233068944478 |
| 2026-03-23T09:15:43+08:00 | 6.155826723611958 |
| 2026-03-23T09:16:23+08:00 | 6.1564368517388655 |
| 2026-03-23T09:16:27+08:00 | 6.175777913361806 |
| 2026-03-23T09:17:40+08:00 | 6.179926784624771 |
| 2026-03-23T09:18:23+08:00 | 6.202684563758389 |
| 2026-03-23T09:19:26+08:00 | 6.3247101891397195 |
| 2026-03-23T09:20:46+08:00 | 6.985356924954241 |
| 2026-03-23T10:04:54+08:00 | 6.986882245271507 |
| 2026-03-23T10:05:00+08:00 | 6.983709579011593 |
| 2026-03-23T10:05:44+08:00 | 7.0164124466137885 |
| 2026-03-23T10:06:40+08:00 | 7.052532031726662 |
| 2026-03-23T10:07:39+08:00 | 7.113544844417327 |
| 2026-03-23T10:43:46+08:00 | 7.114521049420378 |
| 2026-03-23T10:44:08+08:00 | 7.114582062233069 |
| 2026-03-23T11:07:08+08:00 | 7.115436241610738 |
| 2026-03-23T11:07:21+08:00 | 7.124649176327028 |
| 2026-03-23T11:08:41+08:00 | 7.129286150091519 |
| 2026-03-23T11:09:53+08:00 | 7.1392922513727886 |
| 2026-03-23T11:11:24+08:00 | 7.20640634533252 |
| 2026-03-23T11:56:48+08:00 | 7.208602806589384 |
| 2026-03-23T11:56:59+08:00 | 7.2098840756558875 |
| 2026-03-23T12:13:35+08:00 | 7.2319097010372175 |
| 2026-03-23T12:14:12+08:00 | 7.247528981086028 |
| 2026-03-23T12:15:35+08:00 | 7.290237949969494 |
| 2026-03-23T12:17:39+08:00 | 7.290298962782185 |
| 2026-03-23T13:41:11+08:00 | 7.290604026845638 |
| 2026-03-23T13:42:02+08:00 | 7.273093349603417 |
| 2026-03-23T14:06:36+08:00 | 7.278401464307505 |
| 2026-03-23T14:07:14+08:00 | 7.27614399023795 |
| 2026-03-23T14:08:28+08:00 | 7.7947528981086025 |
| 2026-03-23T14:10:05+08:00 | 7.773093349603417 |
| 2026-03-23T15:14:06+08:00 | 7.780292861500915 |
| 2026-03-23T15:14:47+08:00 | 7.82843197071385 |
| 2026-03-23T15:16:47+08:00 | 7.956558877364246 |
| 2026-03-23T15:18:01+08:00 | 7.9566809029896275 |
| 2026-03-23T15:37:46+08:00 | 7.959365466748017 |
| 2026-03-23T15:41:50+08:00 | 8.258328248932276 |
| 2026-03-23T16:16:27+08:00 | 8.265527760829775 |
| 2026-03-23T16:17:24+08:00 | 8.106894447834046 |
| 2026-03-23T16:18:09+08:00 | 8.10732153752288 |
| 2026-03-23T16:18:27+08:00 | 8.106711409395974 |
| 2026-03-23T16:19:34+08:00 | 8.107809640024405 |
| 2026-03-23T16:57:33+08:00 | 8.108907870652837 |
| 2026-03-23T17:04:05+08:00 | 8.098657718120805 |
| 2026-03-23T17:05:45+08:00 | 8.069310555216596 |
| 2026-03-23T17:07:33+08:00 | 8.069188529591214 |
| 2026-03-23T17:08:17+08:00 | 8.09359365466748 |
| 2026-03-23T17:45:41+08:00 | 8.136302623550947 |
| 2026-03-23T17:46:48+08:00 | 8.258328248932276 |
| 2026-03-23T17:48:05+08:00 | 8.868456375838926 |
| 2026-03-23T18:16:56+08:00 | 8.869615619280049 |
| 2026-03-23T18:17:50+08:00 | 8.870408785845028 |
| 2026-03-23T18:21:21+08:00 | 8.825930445393533 |
| 2026-03-23T18:21:52+08:00 | 8.8137278828554 |
| 2026-03-23T18:23:21+08:00 | 8.845027455765711 |
| 2026-03-23T20:18:14+08:00 | 8.84691885295912 |
| 2026-03-23T20:19:32+08:00 | 8.881879194630873 |
| 2026-03-23T20:22:23+08:00 | 8.88816351433801 |
| 2026-03-23T20:23:01+08:00 | 8.94307504575961 |
| 2026-03-23T20:23:36+08:00 | 8.997986577181209 |
| 2026-03-23T22:09:23+08:00 | 9.006833435021354 |
| 2026-03-23T22:11:55+08:00 | 9.008846857840146 |
| 2026-03-23T22:12:26+08:00 | 9.00274557657108 |
| 2026-03-24T08:37:18+08:00 | 9.199816961561927 |
| 2026-03-24T08:37:20+08:00 | 9.40268456375839 |
| 2026-03-24T08:40:32+08:00 | 10.470408785845027 |
| 2026-03-24T08:43:30+08:00 | 10.478157413056742 |
| 2026-03-24T08:43:58+08:00 | 10.478157413056742 |
| 2026-03-24T08:48:48+08:00 | 10.478218425869432 |
| 2026-03-24T09:19:26+08:00 | 10.504942037827943 |
| 2026-03-24T09:20:10+08:00 | 10.648505186089078 |
| 2026-03-24T09:21:49+08:00 | 11.057291031116534 |
| 2026-03-24T09:22:40+08:00 | 11.057535082367297 |
| 2026-03-24T09:22:51+08:00 | 11.058389261744967 |
| 2026-03-24T09:29:36+08:00 | 11.173520439292252 |
| 2026-03-24T10:18:38+08:00 | 11.2431360585723 |
| 2026-03-24T10:20:06+08:00 | 11.01738865161684 |
| 2026-03-24T10:21:15+08:00 | 11.018486882245272 |
| 2026-03-24T10:21:27+08:00 | 11.019646125686394 |
| 2026-03-24T10:22:26+08:00 | 11.01928004881025 |
| 2026-03-24T11:00:13+08:00 | 11.018913971934106 |
| 2026-03-24T11:00:48+08:00 | 11.026662599145821 |
| 2026-03-24T11:02:19+08:00 | 11.062599145820622 |
| 2026-03-24T11:03:45+08:00 | 11.147040878584503 |
| 2026-03-24T11:06:49+08:00 | 11.232458816351434 |
| 2026-03-24T11:49:36+08:00 | 11.231421598535693 |
| 2026-03-24T11:49:39+08:00 | 11.27242220866382 |
| 2026-03-24T11:49:42+08:00 | 11.484685784014642 |
| 2026-03-24T12:07:10+08:00 | 11.512202562538134 |
| 2026-03-24T12:08:06+08:00 | 11.571323978035387 |
| 2026-03-24T12:09:26+08:00 | 11.894691885295913 |
| 2026-03-24T12:11:27+08:00 | 11.90170835875534 |
| 2026-03-24T13:44:03+08:00 | 11.900488102501525 |
| 2026-03-24T13:45:14+08:00 | 11.94319707138499 |
| 2026-03-24T13:47:31+08:00 | 11.944844417327639 |
| 2026-03-24T13:47:33+08:00 | 12.07791336180598 |
| 2026-03-24T13:47:36+08:00 | 12.083648566198901 |
| 2026-03-24T13:47:39+08:00 | 12.112629652226968 |
| 2026-03-24T13:47:41+08:00 | 12.202867602196461 |
| 2026-03-24T13:47:44+08:00 | 12.134045149481391 |
| 2026-03-24T13:47:47+08:00 | 12.097132397803538 |
| 2026-03-24T13:49:14+08:00 | 12.105064063453325 |
| 2026-03-24T14:08:26+08:00 | 12.179072605247102 |
| 2026-03-24T14:08:59+08:00 | 12.156985967053082 |
| 2026-03-24T14:10:12+08:00 | 12.638987187309334 |
| 2026-03-24T14:11:01+08:00 | 12.641427699816962 |
| 2026-03-24T14:12:09+08:00 | 12.797986577181208 |
| 2026-03-24T15:14:03+08:00 | 12.85234899328859 |
| 2026-03-24T15:14:59+08:00 | 13.486882245271508 |
| 2026-03-24T15:16:32+08:00 | 13.489444783404515 |
| 2026-03-24T15:18:49+08:00 | 13.481025015253204 |
| 2026-03-24T15:18:52+08:00 | 13.537278828553996 |
| 2026-03-24T15:18:54+08:00 | 13.522147651006712 |
| 2026-03-24T15:18:57+08:00 | 13.520134228187919 |
| 2026-03-24T15:46:56+08:00 | 13.521781574130568 |
| 2026-03-24T16:12:23+08:00 | 14.069554606467358 |
| 2026-03-24T16:14:05+08:00 | 14.161073825503356 |
| 2026-03-24T16:14:40+08:00 | 14.164856619890177 |
| 2026-03-24T16:17:21+08:00 | 14.286882245271507 |
| 2026-03-24T16:35:11+08:00 | 14.288834655277608 |
| 2026-03-24T17:07:39+08:00 | 14.292983526540574 |
| 2026-03-24T17:09:16+08:00 | 14.457718120805369 |
| 2026-03-24T17:10:16+08:00 | 14.455704697986578 |
| 2026-03-24T17:20:50+08:00 | 14.45863331299573 |
| 2026-03-24T17:33:16+08:00 | 16.89914582062233 |
| 2026-03-24T18:06:54+08:00 | 16.905613178767542 |
| 2026-03-24T18:08:08+08:00 | 17.009334960341672 |
| 2026-03-24T18:09:39+08:00 | 17.12202562538133 |
| 2026-03-24T20:21:43+08:00 | 17.122452715070164 |
| 2026-03-24T20:25:12+08:00 | 17.181818181818183 |
| 2026-03-24T20:25:39+08:00 | 17.492983526540574 |
| 2026-03-24T20:26:13+08:00 | 17.926174496644297 |
| 2026-03-24T22:00:29+08:00 | 17.840756558877363 |
| 2026-03-24T22:13:34+08:00 | 17.842892007321538 |
| 2026-03-24T22:15:31+08:00 | 17.830628431970712 |
| 2026-03-24T22:15:59+08:00 | 17.934350213544846 |
| 2026-03-25T08:35:30+08:00 | 17.933312995729104 |
| 2026-03-25T08:38:32+08:00 | 17.965039658328248 |
| 2026-03-25T08:38:44+08:00 | 18.379072605247103 |
| 2026-03-25T08:41:00+08:00 | 21.869005491153143 |
| 2026-03-25T08:41:36+08:00 | 21.869005491153143 |
| 2026-03-25T09:15:36+08:00 | 21.94301403294692 |
| 2026-03-25T09:17:56+08:00 | 22.21757169005491 |
| 2026-03-25T09:18:55+08:00 | 22.21824283099451 |
| 2026-03-25T09:19:01+08:00 | 22.218669920683343 |
| 2026-03-25T09:21:18+08:00 | 22.176510067114094 |
| 2026-03-25T09:35:39+08:00 | 22.17687614399024 |
| 2026-03-25T09:36:02+08:00 | 22.2744966442953 |
| 2026-03-25T10:04:30+08:00 | 22.411531421598536 |
| 2026-03-25T10:05:48+08:00 | 24.052776082977424 |
| 2026-03-25T10:34:52+08:00 | 24.053020134228188 |
| 2026-03-25T10:35:02+08:00 | 24.052593044539353 |
| 2026-03-25T11:11:37+08:00 | 29.97083587553386 |
| 2026-03-25T17:25:24+08:00 | 31.25 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 50.66x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.613, 乙组 α=0.713) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
瀚天天成中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 瀚天天成（02726）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
