齐云山食品 02797
新股中签预测
80.9501.58%( -1.300 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
103.5亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
20.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
17.2亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
5.5亿 |
| 5 |  信诚 |
5.0亿 |
| 6 |  盈立 |
1.6亿 |
| 7 |  致富 |
1.4亿 |
| 8 |  华盛 |
1.3亿 |
| 9 |  TradeGo |
1.3亿 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-06-30T10:28:19+08:00 | 0.005 |
| 2026-06-30T10:28:24+08:00 | 0.0125 |
| 2026-06-30T11:19:11+08:00 | 0.0265 |
| 2026-06-30T11:19:25+08:00 | 0.037 |
| 2026-06-30T11:40:50+08:00 | 0.0395 |
| 2026-06-30T12:14:21+08:00 | 0.047 |
| 2026-06-30T12:19:11+08:00 | 0.112 |
| 2026-06-30T12:25:05+08:00 | 0.1225 |
| 2026-06-30T12:26:36+08:00 | 0.1725 |
| 2026-06-30T14:05:23+08:00 | 0.1745 |
| 2026-06-30T14:05:26+08:00 | 0.1785 |
| 2026-06-30T14:07:14+08:00 | 0.1805 |
| 2026-06-30T14:07:17+08:00 | 0.1825 |
| 2026-06-30T14:14:22+08:00 | 0.187 |
| 2026-06-30T14:14:25+08:00 | 0.218 |
| 2026-06-30T14:24:48+08:00 | 0.243 |
| 2026-06-30T14:30:05+08:00 | 0.261 |
| 2026-06-30T15:03:43+08:00 | 0.264 |
| 2026-06-30T15:05:53+08:00 | 0.2855 |
| 2026-06-30T15:10:32+08:00 | 0.4355 |
| 2026-06-30T15:17:35+08:00 | 0.437 |
| 2026-06-30T15:21:55+08:00 | 0.487 |
| 2026-06-30T16:27:05+08:00 | 0.488 |
| 2026-06-30T16:29:01+08:00 | 0.492 |
| 2026-06-30T16:33:00+08:00 | 0.4955 |
| 2026-06-30T16:39:48+08:00 | 0.503 |
| 2026-06-30T16:41:26+08:00 | 0.603 |
| 2026-06-30T17:06:50+08:00 | 0.606 |
| 2026-06-30T17:08:44+08:00 | 0.6175 |
| 2026-06-30T17:11:14+08:00 | 0.627 |
| 2026-06-30T17:17:35+08:00 | 0.877 |
| 2026-06-30T17:48:21+08:00 | 3.377 |
| 2026-06-30T18:05:54+08:00 | 3.4045 |
| 2026-06-30T18:12:21+08:00 | 3.407 |
| 2026-06-30T18:21:06+08:00 | 3.4205 |
| 2026-06-30T20:08:46+08:00 | 3.4235 |
| 2026-06-30T20:12:22+08:00 | 3.4275 |
| 2026-06-30T20:13:14+08:00 | 3.4295 |
| 2026-06-30T20:17:19+08:00 | 3.474 |
| 2026-06-30T22:00:29+08:00 | 3.475 |
| 2026-06-30T22:08:44+08:00 | 3.4905 |
| 2026-06-30T22:10:38+08:00 | 3.5905 |
| 2026-07-01T08:44:49+08:00 | 3.5965 |
| 2026-07-01T08:44:52+08:00 | 3.6355 |
| 2026-07-01T08:58:00+08:00 | 3.6855 |
| 2026-07-01T09:02:24+08:00 | 3.6855 |
| 2026-07-01T09:05:43+08:00 | 3.741 |
| 2026-07-01T09:12:33+08:00 | 3.7605 |
| 2026-07-01T09:17:57+08:00 | 3.874 |
| 2026-07-01T09:23:43+08:00 | 3.9475 |
| 2026-07-01T10:18:11+08:00 | 3.9495 |
| 2026-07-01T10:22:15+08:00 | 3.9505 |
| 2026-07-01T10:26:17+08:00 | 4.1505 |
| 2026-07-01T10:28:39+08:00 | 4.152 |
| 2026-07-01T11:09:01+08:00 | 4.154 |
| 2026-07-01T11:10:36+08:00 | 4.158 |
| 2026-07-01T11:16:23+08:00 | 4.163 |
| 2026-07-01T11:20:00+08:00 | 4.213 |
| 2026-07-01T12:13:52+08:00 | 4.2155 |
| 2026-07-01T12:18:03+08:00 | 4.2185 |
| 2026-07-01T12:20:06+08:00 | 4.22 |
| 2026-07-01T14:11:47+08:00 | 4.2235 |
| 2026-07-01T14:11:50+08:00 | 4.224 |
| 2026-07-01T14:15:26+08:00 | 4.226 |
| 2026-07-01T14:15:28+08:00 | 4.388 |
| 2026-07-01T14:19:27+08:00 | 4.238 |
| 2026-07-01T14:26:20+08:00 | 4.2395 |
| 2026-07-01T14:26:23+08:00 | 4.2405 |
| 2026-07-01T14:30:48+08:00 | 4.258 |
| 2026-07-01T15:09:40+08:00 | 4.2605 |
| 2026-07-01T15:13:02+08:00 | 4.356 |
| 2026-07-01T15:17:37+08:00 | 4.3575 |
| 2026-07-01T16:15:01+08:00 | 4.3585 |
| 2026-07-01T16:18:09+08:00 | 4.3815 |
| 2026-07-01T16:21:59+08:00 | 4.7315 |
| 2026-07-01T16:23:40+08:00 | 4.733 |
| 2026-07-01T17:03:57+08:00 | 4.737 |
| 2026-07-01T17:06:28+08:00 | 4.756 |
| 2026-07-01T17:12:07+08:00 | 4.758 |
| 2026-07-01T18:02:25+08:00 | 4.7695 |
| 2026-07-01T18:05:33+08:00 | 4.774 |
| 2026-07-01T18:08:36+08:00 | 4.782 |
| 2026-07-01T18:09:38+08:00 | 5.082 |
| 2026-07-01T18:18:11+08:00 | 5.112 |
| 2026-07-01T20:58:29+08:00 | 5.124 |
| 2026-07-01T20:59:54+08:00 | 5.1255 |
| 2026-07-01T21:01:47+08:00 | 4.8755 |
| 2026-07-01T21:04:04+08:00 | 4.887 |
| 2026-07-01T22:10:19+08:00 | 4.9825 |
| 2026-07-01T22:12:45+08:00 | 4.986 |
| 2026-07-02T08:44:42+08:00 | 5.184 |
| 2026-07-02T08:44:45+08:00 | 5.2245 |
| 2026-07-02T08:52:31+08:00 | 5.8745 |
| 2026-07-02T08:59:22+08:00 | 5.8745 |
| 2026-07-02T09:13:02+08:00 | 5.902 |
| 2026-07-02T09:19:06+08:00 | 5.908 |
| 2026-07-02T09:29:37+08:00 | 5.941 |
| 2026-07-02T09:51:17+08:00 | 6.114 |
| 2026-07-02T10:14:30+08:00 | 6.1255 |
| 2026-07-02T10:19:23+08:00 | 6.1295 |
| 2026-07-02T10:21:14+08:00 | 6.1205 |
| 2026-07-02T10:22:39+08:00 | 6.121 |
| 2026-07-02T10:25:53+08:00 | 6.071 |
| 2026-07-02T11:14:02+08:00 | 6.1135 |
| 2026-07-02T11:17:08+08:00 | 6.1385 |
| 2026-07-02T11:18:51+08:00 | 6.142 |
| 2026-07-02T11:20:39+08:00 | 6.1455 |
| 2026-07-02T12:11:37+08:00 | 6.1495 |
| 2026-07-02T12:16:53+08:00 | 6.157 |
| 2026-07-02T12:24:26+08:00 | 6.1605 |
| 2026-07-02T13:45:19+08:00 | 6.1715 |
| 2026-07-02T14:08:12+08:00 | 6.2215 |
| 2026-07-02T14:08:15+08:00 | 6.2245 |
| 2026-07-02T14:14:40+08:00 | 6.254 |
| 2026-07-02T14:14:42+08:00 | 6.262 |
| 2026-07-02T14:24:22+08:00 | 6.2665 |
| 2026-07-02T14:24:24+08:00 | 6.6165 |
| 2026-07-02T14:24:27+08:00 | 6.616 |
| 2026-07-02T14:24:30+08:00 | 6.466 |
| 2026-07-02T14:36:23+08:00 | 7.583 |
| 2026-07-02T15:01:11+08:00 | 7.586 |
| 2026-07-02T15:03:26+08:00 | 7.5905 |
| 2026-07-02T15:06:37+08:00 | 7.593 |
| 2026-07-02T15:13:35+08:00 | 8.043 |
| 2026-07-02T16:05:23+08:00 | 8.109 |
| 2026-07-02T16:07:31+08:00 | 8.1095 |
| 2026-07-02T16:12:09+08:00 | 8.0595 |
| 2026-07-02T16:14:29+08:00 | 8.074 |
| 2026-07-02T16:15:57+08:00 | 8.0775 |
| 2026-07-02T17:04:35+08:00 | 8.161 |
| 2026-07-02T17:05:59+08:00 | 8.1765 |
| 2026-07-02T17:08:44+08:00 | 8.286 |
| 2026-07-02T17:14:16+08:00 | 8.886 |
| 2026-07-02T17:51:24+08:00 | 16.386 |
| 2026-07-02T18:09:46+08:00 | 16.4645 |
| 2026-07-02T18:17:29+08:00 | 16.479 |
| 2026-07-02T18:21:34+08:00 | 16.4985 |
| 2026-07-02T18:23:10+08:00 | 16.5265 |
| 2026-07-02T18:23:50+08:00 | 16.4765 |
| 2026-07-02T20:41:47+08:00 | 16.4785 |
| 2026-07-02T20:44:55+08:00 | 16.52 |
| 2026-07-02T20:49:56+08:00 | 17.3605 |
| 2026-07-02T20:51:46+08:00 | 19.3605 |
| 2026-07-02T21:49:51+08:00 | 19.4915 |
| 2026-07-02T22:10:04+08:00 | 19.981 |
| 2026-07-02T22:11:48+08:00 | 23.431 |
| 2026-07-03T08:37:07+08:00 | 23.4355 |
| 2026-07-03T08:40:17+08:00 | 23.5915 |
| 2026-07-03T08:40:20+08:00 | 26.002 |
| 2026-07-03T08:46:13+08:00 | 26.002 |
| 2026-07-03T08:48:43+08:00 | 33.302 |
| 2026-07-03T09:02:17+08:00 | 33.567 |
| 2026-07-03T09:09:57+08:00 | 33.587 |
| 2026-07-03T09:12:44+08:00 | 34.1355 |
| 2026-07-03T09:14:50+08:00 | 35.4855 |
| 2026-07-03T09:19:01+08:00 | 36.539 |
| 2026-07-03T10:16:29+08:00 | 35.6835 |
| 2026-07-03T10:20:45+08:00 | 38.9835 |
| 2026-07-03T10:26:58+08:00 | 39.021 |
| 2026-07-03T10:30:11+08:00 | 39.054 |
| 2026-07-03T11:14:07+08:00 | 39.067 |
| 2026-07-03T11:16:08+08:00 | 41.567 |
| 2026-07-03T11:16:53+08:00 | 41.5705 |
| 2026-07-03T11:18:27+08:00 | 41.5935 |
| 2026-07-03T11:19:28+08:00 | 41.6755 |
| 2026-07-03T11:22:32+08:00 | 41.683 |
| 2026-07-03T11:41:26+08:00 | 41.708 |
| 2026-07-03T11:41:54+08:00 | 41.837 |
| 2026-07-03T12:26:00+08:00 | 41.75 |
| 2026-07-03T12:26:39+08:00 | 41.812 |
| 2026-07-03T12:27:06+08:00 | 41.867 |
| 2026-07-03T12:28:38+08:00 | 42.613 |
| 2026-07-03T12:30:48+08:00 | 44.413 |
| 2026-07-03T12:32:51+08:00 | 44.503 |
| 2026-07-03T12:35:05+08:00 | 44.504 |
| 2026-07-03T12:35:45+08:00 | 44.55 |
| 2026-07-03T13:40:31+08:00 | 44.5485 |
| 2026-07-03T13:43:18+08:00 | 44.8985 |
| 2026-07-03T13:44:42+08:00 | 44.923 |
| 2026-07-03T13:45:57+08:00 | 44.9405 |
| 2026-07-03T13:48:55+08:00 | 46.091 |
| 2026-07-03T14:00:58+08:00 | 46.12 |
| 2026-07-03T14:03:00+08:00 | 47.085 |
| 2026-07-03T14:07:37+08:00 | 47.097 |
| 2026-07-03T14:10:36+08:00 | 47.397 |
| 2026-07-03T14:13:17+08:00 | 47.426 |
| 2026-07-03T14:14:09+08:00 | 48.7105 |
| 2026-07-03T14:34:01+08:00 | 50.758 |
| 2026-07-03T14:34:25+08:00 | 51.2925 |
| 2026-07-03T15:19:56+08:00 | 51.379 |
| 2026-07-03T15:21:50+08:00 | 52.929 |
| 2026-07-03T15:23:32+08:00 | 53.2635 |
| 2026-07-03T15:23:34+08:00 | 53.558 |
| 2026-07-03T15:23:37+08:00 | 53.5915 |
| 2026-07-03T15:24:48+08:00 | 53.5985 |
| 2026-07-03T15:25:46+08:00 | 53.633 |
| 2026-07-03T16:02:05+08:00 | 53.7895 |
| 2026-07-03T16:02:20+08:00 | 53.6555 |
| 2026-07-03T16:03:33+08:00 | 53.692 |
| 2026-07-03T16:04:37+08:00 | 54.117 |
| 2026-07-03T16:06:31+08:00 | 58.017 |
| 2026-07-03T16:07:34+08:00 | 58.078 |
| 2026-07-03T16:09:21+08:00 | 58.109 |
| 2026-07-03T17:08:55+08:00 | 58.5355 |
| 2026-07-03T17:10:48+08:00 | 58.658 |
| 2026-07-03T17:13:46+08:00 | 58.856 |
| 2026-07-03T17:14:33+08:00 | 58.8525 |
| 2026-07-03T17:14:45+08:00 | 58.8825 |
| 2026-07-03T17:15:20+08:00 | 60.6325 |
| 2026-07-03T17:19:22+08:00 | 85.5825 |
| 2026-07-03T18:26:56+08:00 | 85.601 |
| 2026-07-03T18:28:28+08:00 | 85.617 |
| 2026-07-03T18:32:28+08:00 | 100.617 |
| 2026-07-03T18:34:12+08:00 | 100.9045 |
| 2026-07-03T18:39:40+08:00 | 101.0385 |
| 2026-07-03T18:40:34+08:00 | 101.1075 |
| 2026-07-03T18:42:49+08:00 | 102.6075 |
| 2026-07-03T18:47:40+08:00 | 103.3225 |
| 2026-07-03T21:05:13+08:00 | 103.741 |
| 2026-07-03T21:07:05+08:00 | 103.9435 |
| 2026-07-03T21:12:37+08:00 | 104.0755 |
| 2026-07-03T21:14:01+08:00 | 108.7755 |
| 2026-07-03T21:14:59+08:00 | 110.2255 |
| 2026-07-04T09:32:56+08:00 | 110.2255 |
| 2026-07-04T09:34:39+08:00 | 110.2255 |
| 2026-07-04T09:36:47+08:00 | 110.6125 |
| 2026-07-04T09:40:04+08:00 | 111.9185 |
| 2026-07-04T09:41:26+08:00 | 113.2905 |
| 2026-07-04T09:42:37+08:00 | 120.6405 |
| 2026-07-04T09:43:11+08:00 | 120.4405 |
| 2026-07-04T10:26:53+08:00 | 120.5135 |
| 2026-07-04T10:27:59+08:00 | 120.531 |
| 2026-07-04T10:29:55+08:00 | 121.304 |
| 2026-07-04T10:31:42+08:00 | 122.604 |
| 2026-07-04T12:03:08+08:00 | 122.684 |
| 2026-07-04T12:10:25+08:00 | 122.9025 |
| 2026-07-04T12:12:04+08:00 | 122.956 |
| 2026-07-04T12:13:42+08:00 | 123.556 |
| 2026-07-04T12:14:06+08:00 | 124.306 |
| 2026-07-04T15:36:30+08:00 | 124.5295 |
| 2026-07-04T15:38:27+08:00 | 124.5 |
| 2026-07-04T15:39:41+08:00 | 124.5655 |
| 2026-07-04T15:42:01+08:00 | 126.8155 |
| 2026-07-04T15:42:29+08:00 | 128.0655 |
| 2026-07-04T18:33:46+08:00 | 128.1565 |
| 2026-07-04T18:35:17+08:00 | 128.3325 |
| 2026-07-04T18:37:37+08:00 | 128.5175 |
| 2026-07-04T18:40:07+08:00 | 128.756 |
| 2026-07-04T18:40:57+08:00 | 130.356 |
| 2026-07-04T18:41:22+08:00 | 131.756 |
| 2026-07-04T20:03:51+08:00 | 131.779 |
| 2026-07-04T20:06:19+08:00 | 131.838 |
| 2026-07-04T20:07:52+08:00 | 132.383 |
| 2026-07-04T20:08:45+08:00 | 134.883 |
| 2026-07-04T21:34:03+08:00 | 134.895 |
| 2026-07-04T21:35:45+08:00 | 135.2085 |
| 2026-07-04T21:36:17+08:00 | 137.0085 |
| 2026-07-05T09:32:24+08:00 | 137.33 |
| 2026-07-05T09:32:28+08:00 | 137.338 |
| 2026-07-05T09:32:32+08:00 | 138.788 |
| 2026-07-05T09:32:37+08:00 | 139.0325 |
| 2026-07-05T09:42:07+08:00 | 139.2375 |
| 2026-07-05T09:44:34+08:00 | 139.8575 |
| 2026-07-05T09:47:02+08:00 | 139.7575 |
| 2026-07-05T09:47:36+08:00 | 143.7575 |
| 2026-07-05T09:48:13+08:00 | 144.5575 |
| 2026-07-05T09:49:49+08:00 | 144.5675 |
| 2026-07-05T12:19:22+08:00 | 146.1675 |
| 2026-07-05T12:20:08+08:00 | 147.8175 |
| 2026-07-05T12:20:48+08:00 | 151.5675 |
| 2026-07-05T12:23:03+08:00 | 151.577 |
| 2026-07-05T12:23:44+08:00 | 151.593 |
| 2026-07-05T12:24:23+08:00 | 151.807 |
| 2026-07-05T12:31:23+08:00 | 151.8285 |
| 2026-07-05T12:31:58+08:00 | 151.9355 |
| 2026-07-05T12:32:28+08:00 | 152.287 |
| 2026-07-05T12:39:12+08:00 | 152.3 |
| 2026-07-05T12:40:09+08:00 | 152.3315 |
| 2026-07-05T12:41:28+08:00 | 152.347 |
| 2026-07-05T14:44:50+08:00 | 152.817 |
| 2026-07-05T14:45:19+08:00 | 153.6405 |
| 2026-07-05T14:47:21+08:00 | 153.521 |
| 2026-07-05T14:47:50+08:00 | 153.5405 |
| 2026-07-05T14:49:22+08:00 | 153.556 |
| 2026-07-05T14:49:44+08:00 | 153.6305 |
| 2026-07-05T14:50:31+08:00 | 153.667 |
| 2026-07-05T14:51:39+08:00 | 156.967 |
| 2026-07-05T14:52:14+08:00 | 158.567 |
| 2026-07-05T17:19:47+08:00 | 159.9485 |
| 2026-07-05T17:20:21+08:00 | 160.493 |
| 2026-07-05T17:20:58+08:00 | 161.9495 |
| 2026-07-05T17:26:07+08:00 | 166.2495 |
| 2026-07-05T17:26:53+08:00 | 168.1495 |
| 2026-07-05T17:27:30+08:00 | 171.6495 |
| 2026-07-05T17:30:26+08:00 | 171.8315 |
| 2026-07-05T17:31:04+08:00 | 172.0335 |
| 2026-07-05T17:31:35+08:00 | 172.169 |
| 2026-07-05T17:48:19+08:00 | 172.175 |
| 2026-07-05T17:48:53+08:00 | 172.196 |
| 2026-07-05T17:49:34+08:00 | 172.2095 |
| 2026-07-05T20:06:35+08:00 | 172.9315 |
| 2026-07-05T20:07:10+08:00 | 173.8165 |
| 2026-07-05T20:07:44+08:00 | 175.6545 |
| 2026-07-05T20:13:36+08:00 | 175.7775 |
| 2026-07-05T20:14:07+08:00 | 175.814 |
| 2026-07-05T20:14:46+08:00 | 175.985 |
| 2026-07-05T20:20:40+08:00 | 176.227 |
| 2026-07-05T20:21:14+08:00 | 176.2795 |
| 2026-07-05T20:23:08+08:00 | 176.2805 |
| 2026-07-05T20:25:47+08:00 | 184.8305 |
| 2026-07-05T21:11:04+08:00 | 190.2805 |
| 2026-07-05T21:11:49+08:00 | 196.1305 |
| 2026-07-05T21:12:30+08:00 | 204.9305 |
| 2026-07-05T21:15:13+08:00 | 205.2495 |
| 2026-07-05T21:16:26+08:00 | 207.303 |
| 2026-07-05T21:18:59+08:00 | 207.3065 |
| 2026-07-06T08:39:11+08:00 | 209.7625 |
| 2026-07-06T08:39:51+08:00 | 214.1365 |
| 2026-07-06T08:40:17+08:00 | 231.3965 |
| 2026-07-06T08:45:43+08:00 | 245.9465 |
| 2026-07-06T08:46:07+08:00 | 367.7465 |
| 2026-07-06T08:48:39+08:00 | 367.7505 |
| 2026-07-06T08:49:47+08:00 | 367.7505 |
| 2026-07-06T09:01:43+08:00 | 370.1505 |
| 2026-07-06T09:03:07+08:00 | 372.1695 |
| 2026-07-06T09:04:36+08:00 | 373.6195 |
| 2026-07-06T09:05:16+08:00 | 386.3785 |
| 2026-07-06T09:07:31+08:00 | 440.7285 |
| 2026-07-06T09:08:07+08:00 | 440.7385 |
| 2026-07-06T09:09:49+08:00 | 464.0305 |
| 2026-07-06T09:34:40+08:00 | 464.031 |
| 2026-07-06T09:34:46+08:00 | 464.0185 |
| 2026-07-06T09:49:53+08:00 | 464.0195 |
| 2026-07-06T10:26:49+08:00 | 465.0435 |
| 2026-07-06T10:27:37+08:00 | 485.867 |
| 2026-07-06T10:28:49+08:00 | 696.817 |
| 2026-07-06T10:32:23+08:00 | 696.9115 |
| 2026-07-06T11:10:13+08:00 | 703.466 |
| 2026-07-06T13:43:15+08:00 | 708.466 |
| 2026-07-06T16:19:52+08:00 | 790.26 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 1688.1x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.532, 乙组 α=0.632) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
齐云山食品中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 齐云山食品（02797）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
