孖展动态 孖展倍数313.81567459085926x 孖展资金1516.8亿
排名 券商 孖展资金
1 富途证券富途 900.7亿
2 辉立证券辉立 365.0亿
3 老虎国际老虎 147.2亿
4 华泰国际华泰 55.1亿
5 华盛证券华盛 18.1亿
6 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 13.5亿
7 长桥证券长桥 7.1亿
8 盈立证券盈立 5.2亿
9 信诚证券信诚 5.0亿
孖展倍数
时间倍数
2026-01-29T06:00:00+08:000
2026-01-29T10:30:48+08:000.0002896571700494486
2026-01-29T10:30:54+08:000.02913123538783026
2026-01-29T10:31:00+08:000.058821095317898746
2026-01-29T10:31:08+08:000.0670970144621687
2026-01-29T11:08:03+08:000.0697453085883351
2026-01-29T11:09:07+08:000.09374547410671798
2026-01-29T11:11:17+08:000.16208387644052719
2026-01-29T11:11:32+08:000.9317443568576335
2026-01-29T12:10:03+08:000.942089255787971
2026-01-29T12:10:24+08:000.9446754805205553
2026-01-29T12:10:51+08:000.9951792770984628
2026-01-29T12:11:08+08:001.1011731115387002
2026-01-29T12:11:20+08:001.543934785757143
2026-01-29T13:41:30+08:001.545217553224505
2026-01-29T13:42:38+08:001.6086938530610555
2026-01-29T13:43:04+08:001.7209360064552168
2026-01-29T13:43:20+08:002.703701404837275
2026-01-29T14:17:29+08:002.71245318933234
2026-01-29T14:18:22+08:002.719860136966462
2026-01-29T14:18:44+08:002.7990399933792647
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2026-01-29T15:10:57+08:003.068607369705998
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2026-01-29T16:25:31+08:003.4307202118635303
2026-01-29T16:27:03+08:003.5003620714625616
2026-01-29T16:27:50+08:003.6894047545155484
2026-01-29T16:28:18+08:003.6895288933027124
2026-01-29T16:28:32+08:004.380568141849254
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2026-01-29T17:16:52+08:004.437589224753274
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2026-01-29T17:19:00+08:004.48867233567128
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2026-01-29T20:13:51+08:006.686156456251423
2026-01-29T21:35:40+08:006.705687625431899
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2026-01-29T22:06:06+08:006.855750729315375
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2026-01-30T08:54:00+08:007.188049572755674
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2026-01-30T09:01:02+08:008.316864254236236
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2026-01-30T15:10:10+08:0010.05269691515114
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2026-01-30T15:48:01+08:0011.239132683673681
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2026-01-30T16:06:42+08:0011.627004324167753
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2026-01-31T10:30:59+08:0017.484617135290588
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捷利预测倍数
时间倍数
券商孖展资金走势
时间券商孖展资金
预测模型 一手期望中签手数— 期望中签1手所需手数—
倍数推导
近期首日表现
+4.6%
→
参与人数
15,563
→
人均手数
30.6
→
认购倍数
9x
9x = 15,563 × 30.6 ÷ 50,452 A+H二次上市 · 参与×0.44 H股折价 39.9% 孖展加权 100% → 313.8x
1x2068.0x
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.56
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.66
此模型不适用分配手法调节

实际 vs 预测 对比

以实际认购倍数 446.39x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.562, 乙组 α=0.662) 为基准,对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数

申购手数 认购金额(HKD) 实际期望中签 预测期望中签 偏差

标志大族数控中签预测矩阵

行为申购档位,列为不同认购倍数,数值为期望中签手数,绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手;非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。

发售机制说明

机制B

《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%,不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%(因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者,基石投资者除外)。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益,自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。

分配手法系数 α

α 为发行人分配偏好系数,描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——无论申购多少手,每位中签者获配股数相同。对散户(小单申购)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——获配股数与申购手数成正比。对大额申购更有利。
  • 历史实际 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3–0.9,乙组 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差异较大,反映发行人各自的分配策略。
中签率定义

本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致:中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径,与其他网站可能使用的不同定义(如「申购人数中签比例」)有本质区别。

期望中签手数

期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数

例:某档位获配总股数 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

关于本页

本页展示 大族数控(03200)的中签预测:基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导,公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数;其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准,再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准;随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权;临近截止(进度约九成后)默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配,估计各申购档位的期望中签手数,并结合分配手法系数 α(人均分配至比例分配)给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α,覆盖 cibo 的默认预测,查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源:港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告;孖展数据(孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细)来自捷利交易宝(TradeGo),倍数仅覆盖已上报券商,捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新;中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中签率预测、中签画像与入通分析